Category: Market Summary

Futures tied to the major U.S. equity benchmarks edged slightly lower, while oil prices resumed their climb as fighting involving Iran continued. The renewed tension comes despite U.S. President Donald Trump announcing a temporary pause in planned American strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure. Fresh attacks have been reported across parts of the Middle East, while Tehran has rejected Trump’s assertion that the two sides had held “good” discussions about ending the conflict. Investors are now focusing on upcoming U.S. business activity data, which may offer early insight into how the war is affecting the wider economy.

Futures trade cautiously

U.S. equity futures moved little on Tuesday as markets tried to gauge the outlook for the Iran conflict following Trump’s decision to delay military action targeting Iranian power plants.

As of 04:20 ET, Dow futures were down 25 points, or 0.1%, while futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were broadly flat.

The main Wall Street indices finished higher in the previous session after Trump said Washington had conducted “productive” talks with Tehran. Iranian officials quickly disputed the claim, accusing the U.S. president of fabricating the story in order to calm volatile markets.

“[T]here is a ton of skepticism about the conflict coming to an end anytime soon,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note to clients. They suggested equities could continue to advance but cautioned that the S&P 500 may face a “hard ceiling” between 6,900 and 7,000. The benchmark closed Monday at 6,565.55.

Fresh attacks across the region

Any hopes that Trump’s announcement might signal an imminent end to the conflict were tempered as new missile strikes were reported across the Middle East.

Media reports indicated that multiple locations in Israel, including areas of Tel Aviv, came under attack. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia had been targeted by drone and missile strikes, while Israel said it had carried out strikes on sites in Lebanon associated with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a central concern. The strategic shipping route south of Iran, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows, has effectively remained closed to tanker traffic. The disruption has become a major flashpoint in the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran and threatens to restrict vital energy supplies, particularly for Asian importers.

Oil prices have surged in response, heightening fears that a new wave of global inflation could emerge and force central banks to reconsider tightening monetary policy.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, briefly dropped below $100 per barrel after Trump’s announcement — the first time this had happened in weeks. Nevertheless, prices remain well above levels seen before the war, when Brent traded around $70 per barrel.

At 04:34 ET, Brent futures for May delivery were up 1.6% at $101.58 per barrel.

Gold stabilizes

Gold prices steadied during European trading, as the earlier pullback in oil prices helped the precious metal recover some of its recent losses.

Gold had been under sustained pressure in recent sessions after rising energy costs stoked fears that inflation could remain elevated.

As a result, markets have trimmed expectations for interest-rate cuts, with investors increasingly anticipating that central banks — including the Federal Reserve — will keep borrowing costs higher for longer.

Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the metal does not generate income, making yield-bearing assets such as government bonds relatively more attractive.

Spot gold was last down 0.1% at $4,403.98 an ounce by 04:52 ET.

Dollar supported

The U.S. dollar held firm as traders evaluated conflicting messages coming from Washington and Tehran.

The uncertain outlook and renewed fighting have reinforced demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

After falling close to a two-week low following Trump’s social media post on Monday, the dollar index — which measures the currency against a basket of major peers — was up 0.3% at 99.25 by 04:48 ET.

“The dollar continues to be bounced around by the latest headlines on the war in the Middle East,” analysts at ING said in a note. “Traders will be eager to hear, particularly from the Iranian side, whether there is any realistic chance of ceasefire negotiations getting started. Until then, any further rally in risk assets and sell-off in the dollar will prove limited.”

U.S. flash PMIs due

On the economic front, investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. flash purchasing managers’ index for March.

The data should provide one of the earliest indications of how the Iran conflict is affecting business conditions, analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that it was “too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy” resulting from the conflict, although he warned that higher energy prices are likely to lift inflation in the near term.

Markets are also awaiting a weekly employment indicator from payroll processor ADP. Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, combined with the risk that an energy shock linked to Iran could push inflation higher again, are key concerns for Federal Reserve officials as they consider the future direction of interest rate policy.

U.S. stock index futures are signaling a strong gain at the open on Monday, indicating that equities could bounce back after the sharp losses recorded in recent sessions.

Investors may be tempted to re-enter the market following the recent downturn that pushed both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their lowest closing levels in more than six months.

The improved outlook for markets follows comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who stepped back from earlier warnings that the United States would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

He added that he had instructed the War Department to delay any military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

Previously, Trump had threatened that the United States would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours and said he had no interest in negotiating with Tehran.

Iran responded by warning it would target energy and water infrastructure throughout the Gulf if Washington carried out the threatened attacks.

Although oil prices fell sharply after Trump’s latest remarks, Iran’s state-linked Fars news agency later reported that Tehran was not engaged in direct negotiations with the United States, either directly or through intermediaries.

Wall Street extended losses on Friday

Stocks fell significantly during Friday’s session, adding to declines from earlier in the week and sending the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their lowest closing levels in more than six months.

Both the Dow and the Nasdaq briefly slipped into correction territory — defined as a drop of 10% from recent peaks — before trimming some of their losses late in the day.

Technology stocks led the retreat, with the Nasdaq falling 443.08 points, or 2.0%, to 21,647.61. The S&P 500 declined 100.01 points, or 1.5%, to 6,506.48, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 443.96 points, or 1.0%, to 45,577.47.

These declines erased the earlier strength seen at the start of the week. For the week as a whole, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while both the Dow and the Nasdaq lost 2.1%.

Oil volatility continues to steer markets

The downturn on Wall Street came amid ongoing volatility in oil markets, which has been a major driver of trading in recent days.

Crude oil for May delivery has fluctuated sharply during the session but was recently climbing nearly 3% in electronic trading.

Prices initially surged after reports of fresh attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East, but the gains faded after reports suggested Washington may consider easing sanctions on certain Iranian oil exports in order to boost supply and lower prices.

However, prices turned higher again following remarks from Trump during an interview with MS Now’s Stephanie Ruhle, in which he suggested the United States would continue striking Iran until it could “never rebuild.”

Trump later told reporters he was not interested in a ceasefire with Iran, saying, “You don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.”

Despite the sharp swings in recent sessions, oil prices remain well above levels seen before the conflict began, raising concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates this year, with some probability that borrowing costs could even rise by year-end.

Tech and rate-sensitive sectors under pressure

Computer hardware stocks were among the hardest hit on Friday. The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index fell 6.0% after closing at a record high in the previous session.

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) led the sector’s losses, plunging 33.3% after U.S. prosecutors charged several employees of the company with smuggling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips into China.

Networking stocks also experienced heavy selling, with the NYSE Arca Networking Index dropping 4.6%. The index had also closed at a record high the day before.

Utilities — a sector sensitive to interest rates — also weakened significantly, sending the Dow Jones Utility Average down 3.7% to its lowest closing level in more than a month.

Gold miners, commercial real estate companies and airline stocks also posted notable losses amid the broad selling pressure across Wall Street.

Shares of UK-listed gambling companies jumped on Monday after U.S. lawmakers introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at preventing prediction market platforms from offering contracts tied to sports betting, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.

By 12:25 GMT, Flutter Entertainment (LSE:FLTR) — which owns the major U.S. sportsbook FanDuel — had surged 7.6%. Rival Entain (LSE:ENT), the London-listed operator behind Ladbrokes and the BetMGM joint venture, rose 6.4%.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are preparing legislation that would prohibit entities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, from offering contracts linked to sporting events or casino-style games.

Kalshi has indicated that sports-related wagers account for roughly 90% of its trading activity. Because these platforms operate as federally regulated exchanges, they have been able to avoid state-level gambling licensing rules — an advantage that has pressured the share prices of traditional betting operators in both the U.S. and Europe in recent months.

Regulatory scrutiny is also increasing at the state level. Arizona has filed a 20-count criminal case against Kalshi, while authorities in 11 states have issued cease-and-desist orders targeting the platform.

Flutter’s FanDuel currently holds about 43% of the U.S. sports betting market, while Entain’s BetMGM joint venture generated $2.8 billion in revenue in 2025.

U.S. stock futures indicate a weaker start to trading on Thursday, pointing to additional losses after equities faced heavy selling pressure in the previous session.

Investor sentiment is being dampened by concerns about the escalating conflict in the Middle East following attacks on key energy infrastructure throughout the region.

Israel launched strikes on Iran’s South Pars natural gas fields and oil facilities in Asaluyeh, while an Iranian missile strike targeting Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy complex reportedly caused “extensive damage,” according to the country’s state-run energy company.

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump warned that the United States could “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before” if additional attacks are carried out against Qatar.

Brent crude futures, which surged to nearly $120 per barrel after the latest developments, have since retreated slightly but remain above $113 per barrel.

Stocks fell sharply during Wednesday’s trading session, reversing most of the gains recorded in the previous two days. All three major U.S. indices finished firmly in negative territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 approaching their lowest levels in nearly four months.

By the closing bell, the indices had recovered modestly from their intraday lows. The Dow dropped 768.11 points, or 1.6%, ending the day at 46,225.15. The Nasdaq Composite declined 327.11 points, or 1.5%, to 22,152.42, while the S&P 500 fell 91.39 points, or 1.4%, to close at 6,624.70.

After an early decline, selling pressure intensified later in the session following a negative reaction to remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank confirmed its widely anticipated decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Speaking at the post-meeting press conference, Powell said the United States is seeing “some progress on inflation,” but “not as much as we had hoped.”

Although the Fed’s latest projections still suggest the possibility of a quarter-point rate cut later this year, Powell cautioned that “you won’t see the rate cut” unless inflation continues to move lower.

Powell also highlighted the difficult balance facing policymakers, stating that “the risks to the labor market are to the downside, which would call for lower rates, and the risks to inflation are to the upside, which would call for higher rates or not cutting anyway.”

The Fed’s comments followed its decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, after also leaving rates unchanged at its January meeting.

Most Fed officials supported keeping rates steady, although Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran once again favored lowering rates by a quarter percentage point.

Earlier market weakness had already been triggered by a report from the U.S. Labor Department showing producer prices rose more sharply than expected in February.

The department said its producer price index for final demand increased by 0.7% in February after rising 0.5% in January. Economists had anticipated a smaller gain of 0.3%.

The report also showed that the annual increase in producer prices accelerated to 3.4% in February from 2.9% in January, while economists had expected the yearly pace to remain unchanged.

Combined with the recent surge in crude oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, the data has heightened concerns about the outlook for inflation.

Gold-related stocks dropped sharply as the price of the precious metal declined, pushing the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down 6.4% to its lowest closing level in two months.

Airline stocks also experienced notable weakness, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index falling 3.0%.

Telecommunications shares were also under pressure, dragging the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index down 2.7%.

Housing, retail and pharmaceutical stocks also posted notable declines, joining most other major sectors in moving lower.

U.S. equity futures moved lower on Thursday as escalating attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East sent oil prices sharply higher. The Federal Reserve kept its interest rate outlook unchanged, leaving open the possibility of a rate cut later this year, though Chair Jerome Powell cautioned investors against placing too much weight on the projections. Several other major central banks are also expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged as uncertainty surrounding the conflict with Iran persists. Meanwhile, shares of Micron (NASDAQ:MU) declined in premarket trading after the chipmaker unveiled plans for a significant increase in capital spending.

Futures point to weaker open

Futures tied to the major U.S. stock benchmarks signaled a softer start to trading after renewed strikes on key oil facilities in the Middle East drove crude prices higher.

At 04:16 ET, Dow futures were down 38 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 futures slipped 11 points, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 67 points, or 0.3%.

The main U.S. indices had already ended Wednesday’s session sharply lower after an attack on the South Pars oil field, located in the Iranian portion of the world’s largest natural gas reserve. Iran retaliated by targeting gas infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that hostilities involving Iran, the United States and Israel could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

The strikes pushed energy prices upward, intensifying fears of renewed inflationary pressure across global economies. Investors are watching central bank policy decisions this week for signals on how policymakers expect inflation and interest rates to evolve in the coming months.

Adding to these concerns, U.S. producer price inflation data for February came in stronger than expected, suggesting that price pressures were already lingering in the U.S. economy before the escalation of the Iran conflict.

By the close of Wednesday’s trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 1.6%, the S&P 500 declined 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%.

Oil climbs past $112 per barrel

Oil prices continued to surge, with Brent crude futures — the global benchmark — rising well above $112 per barrel.

At 04:40 ET, Brent had jumped 7.8% to $115.78 per barrel, an increase of roughly $8. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.6% to $97.01 per barrel. The spread between WTI and Brent has widened to its largest level in over a decade, partly due to releases from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve.

European gas prices also surged by more than 25% after Iranian strikes hit Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas production hub, which alone accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supply.

“The move to strike Iranian energy assets is odd, given that the U.S. administration has been trying over the last couple of weeks to ease the upward pressure on oil prices,” analysts at ING said in a statement.

However, President Donald Trump denied that either the United States or Qatar had any role in the strike on South Pars, saying the attack was carried out by Israel.

The latest attacks on energy infrastructure have added further strain to oil markets already dealing with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway south of Iran, but many vessels have avoided the route due to fears of potential Iranian retaliation.

There are few signs that the three-week-old conflict is easing. According to Reuters, U.S. officials are considering deploying thousands of additional troops to reinforce operations in the Middle East.

Fed leaves rates unchanged

Despite the surge in oil prices clouding the inflation outlook, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday left the door open to possible rate cuts later this year.

Lower interest rates can help stimulate economic growth and support a weakening labor market, though they also carry the risk of reigniting inflation.

In the Fed’s latest quarterly projections, 12 of the 19 policymakers indicated they still expect at least one rate reduction in 2026, the same outlook presented in December.

However, speaking after the central bank left rates unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range, Powell warned that investors should treat the projections with caution “even more than usual.”

He suggested that current borrowing costs are near a neutral level — neither stimulating nor restricting economic activity — implying limited room for rate cuts, especially if energy-driven inflation persists.

Global central banks under watch

The Bank of Japan also kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday, as widely anticipated, while warning about the inflationary risks associated with rising energy prices.

The BOJ maintained its overnight call rate at 0.75% following an almost unanimous decision by its nine-member policy board. Board member Hajime Takata was the only dissenter, advocating a 25 basis point rate hike amid increasing inflation risks.

Officials highlighted risks to price stability over the medium and long term, noting that higher oil prices pose a particular challenge for Japan, which relies heavily on imported energy passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Risks to the outlook include the future course of the situation in the Middle East as well as developments in crude prices,” the BOJ said in a statement.

Economists at Capital Economics said the BOJ’s remarks also suggested that further rate increases could be considered if inflation continues to strengthen.

Later in the session, investors will turn their attention to policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both of which are also expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Switzerland’s central bank likewise left rates on hold, citing increased economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict.

Micron earnings

Micron Technology reported a sharp jump in revenue and profits for its fiscal second quarter, but its shares fell more than 4% in premarket trading after the company announced plans to significantly boost spending on manufacturing capacity.

The chipmaker said it plans to invest more than $25 billion in new fabrication facilities in fiscal 2026, about $5 billion more than previously forecast.

Micron reported adjusted earnings per share of $12.20 for the quarter ended Feb. 26, compared with $1.56 a year earlier and well above analyst expectations of $8.79. Revenue surged 196% year-on-year to $23.86 billion from $8.05 billion, exceeding estimates of $19.19 billion.

Gross margin reached a record 74.9%, rising 18 percentage points from the prior quarter.

“In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers, and we are investing in our global manufacturing footprint to support their growing demand,” Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said.