Category: Market Summary

Investors are entering a holiday-shortened week that nonetheless features important economic releases and major corporate earnings. Oil markets remain steady as Washington and Tehran prepare for another round of nuclear negotiations in Switzerland. Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery is reportedly reassessing takeover discussions, while gold and Bitcoin are trading lower.

U.S. markets closed to start the week

Wall Street is shut on Monday for a public holiday, but attention will quickly shift to a busy calendar of data and earnings in the days ahead.

On Friday, U.S. equity benchmarks ended mixed. Markets reacted to January inflation data showing price pressures easing more than anticipated, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could move up its next rate cut to June. Earlier in the week, however, a strong labor market report had suggested that policymakers — who reduced borrowing costs multiple times in 2025 — might delay further easing until later in the year.

The Nasdaq Composite continued to face headwinds, as investors remain wary of how emerging artificial intelligence models could disrupt the technology and communications sectors. Questions surrounding intensifying competition and the timeline for returns on heavy AI-related capital spending weighed on sentiment across major indices last week.

Focus now turns to Friday’s release of the December personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. An advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP is also due the same day.

Corporate earnings remain a key driver this week, with reports expected from Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) and Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG).

U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions resume

The United States and Iran are set to meet again in Switzerland for a second round of talks aimed at addressing Tehran’s nuclear program, after dialogue resumed earlier this month.

The renewed negotiations come amid ongoing tensions. Washington has reinforced its military presence in the Middle East and signaled readiness to escalate pressure if diplomacy fails. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran that it must agree to a deal or risk further military consequences.

Iranian officials said over the weekend that they are prepared to consider compromises on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from U.S. sanctions, adding that the next step lies with Washington.

“[T]here is still a large risk premium priced into the market given the uncertainty over how the situation between the U.S. and Iran evolves,” analysts at ING said in a note.

Oil prices were largely steady in European trading, with thin volumes due to market holidays in both China and the United States. Weak economic growth data out of Japan also added to concerns about global demand. Brent crude for April delivery hovered near $67.72 per barrel.

Warner Bros. weighs fresh takeover talks – report

In corporate news, reports suggest new developments in the takeover saga involving Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD).

Bloomberg reported that Warner Bros. is considering reopening negotiations with Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) after David Ellison’s group enhanced its hostile offer. Board members are reportedly assessing whether Paramount’s proposal could be more attractive than a competing bid from Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Last week, Paramount pledged to increase the cash component offered to Warner Bros. shareholders for every quarter that a deal remains unresolved in 2026 and to cover any penalties associated with terminating Warner’s current agreement with Netflix. However, the base offer of $30 per share remains unchanged.

Gold retreats as dollar steadies

Gold prices moved lower in European trading as the U.S. dollar stabilized following recent inflation data. Precious metals have experienced sharp swings over the past two weeks and remain below late-January highs.

Spot gold fell to around $4,998.69 per ounce, while April futures declined to roughly $5,018.69. Although safe-haven demand has been supported by geopolitical tensions, stronger dollar moves have limited gains.

Bitcoin extends its slide

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) continued to decline, marking a fourth consecutive week of significant losses across the cryptocurrency market.

The digital asset pulled back toward $68,624 after briefly surpassing $70,000 over the weekend. Bitcoin has now lost roughly half its value since reaching a record high near $126,000 in October.

Meanwhile, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, said it would remain able to meet its debt obligations even if the cryptocurrency fell to $8,000. The company stated on social media that it can “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”

Strategy currently holds 714,644 Bitcoin, financed through a combination of equity issuance and long-term debt.

European markets started the week slightly firmer on Monday, buoyed by a generally constructive earnings season, though trading volumes were muted due to holidays in both Asia and the United States.

At around 08:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2%.

Earnings momentum supports markets

Activity was subdued, with much of Asia closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and U.S. markets shut for George Washington’s birthday. Even so, investor sentiment across Europe remained broadly upbeat as corporate earnings continue to exceed expectations against a gradually stabilising economic backdrop.

According to LSEG data, companies accounting for 57% of Europe’s total market capitalisation have reported results so far. Fourth-quarter earnings growth is averaging 3.9%, outperforming earlier forecasts that had pointed to a 1.1% contraction. Around 60% of companies have surpassed analyst estimates, compared with a typical beat rate of 54%.

While Monday’s earnings calendar is relatively light, attention this week will turn to Europe’s major mining groups — Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO), Glencore (LSE:GLEN), Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL) and Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO) — as they release results amid elevated metals prices.

Automaker Volkswagen AG (TG:VOW3) is also likely to draw scrutiny after Manager Magazin reported that the group plans to reduce costs by 20% across its brands by the end of 2028.

Across the Atlantic, the earnings spotlight will fall on Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT), which is set to publish quarterly results on Thursday. Investors will be watching closely for signals on U.S. consumer demand.

Economic data in focus

On the macro front, Eurozone industrial production figures for December are due later Monday, with economists expecting a 1.5% month-on-month decline.

In the U.K., asking prices for newly listed homes were broadly flat in February, dipping by just £12 to an average of £368,019 after a 2.8% rise in January, according to property portal Rightmove.

Earlier in Asia, Japan’s latest GDP reading disappointed. The economy expanded at an annualised pace of just 0.2% in the fourth quarter, well below expectations of 1.6%. The data showed only a modest recovery following a sharp contraction in the third quarter, potentially strengthening the case for further fiscal support under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Oil steady ahead of U.S.–Iran talks

Crude prices were little changed in quiet holiday trade, as markets awaited further diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude futures slipped 0.1% to $67.66 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures edged down 0.1% to $62.68 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had declined between 0.5% and 1% last week after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that a potential agreement with Iran could be reached within a month, weighing on prices.

A second round of U.S.–Iran discussions is scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva, following renewed talks earlier this month aimed at resolving long-standing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

European markets climbed to new record levels on Thursday, buoyed by a strong wave of corporate results from major names including Legrand, Hermes and Siemens.

Investors largely brushed aside weaker-than-expected U.K. growth data. Britain’s economy expanded by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, matching the previous period but falling short of forecasts for 0.2% growth, as business investment declined and the services sector showed little momentum.

On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.0%, below economists’ expectations of 1.2%.

In market action, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 hovered around flat territory, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.0% and Germany’s DAX gained 1.4%.

Among individual stocks, Legrand (EU:LR) rallied after the French electrical and digital infrastructure specialist increased its dividend and unveiled a 2026 revenue growth target of 10–15% at constant exchange rates.

Luxury house Hermes International (EU:RMS) also posted solid gains following another quarter of consistent revenue expansion.

Schroders (LSE:SDR) surged after agreeing to a £9.9 billion acquisition by U.S.-based asset manager Nuveen, a move that significantly boosted its share price.

Siemens (TG:SIE) jumped as well, with the German engineering group lifting its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings outlook and reaffirming its revenue growth expectations after delivering first-quarter results ahead of forecasts.

EssilorLuxottica (EU:EL) climbed sharply after reporting an 18% increase in fourth-quarter sales, supported by strong demand for AI-enabled eyewear.

Ipsen (EU:IPN) advanced following robust 2025 results and an upbeat forecast for 2026 performance.

In London, British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) edged higher after posting a 2.3% rise in annual profit and announcing plans for a £1.3 billion share buyback in 2026.

On the downside, Unilever (LSE:ULVR) slipped despite reporting 3.5% underlying sales growth in 2025, while Swisscom (TG:SWJ) declined after posting lower full-year net income for 2025.

London’s benchmark FTSE 100 climbed to a record level on Thursday, supported by a sharp rally in Schroders plc (LSE:SDR) after it agreed to a takeover by U.S.-based Nuveen, while fresh economic data pointed to modest UK growth at the end of last year.

By 1200 GMT, the blue-chip index was up 0.1%. Sterling strengthened 0.2% against the dollar to 1.3649. On the continent, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.3% and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.8%.

UK economy posts slight December expansion

Official figures showed the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in December, easing from a revised 0.2% increase in November. For the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP rose 0.1%, matching the pace recorded in the third quarter. That left full-year growth at 1.0% for 2025, marginally below the 1.1% registered in 2024.

Schroders rallies on Nuveen deal

Shares in Schroders jumped about 28.6% after the fund manager accepted a £9.9 billion all-cash offer from Nuveen, creating an investment group overseeing close to $2.5 trillion in assets.

The company also unveiled strong annual results. Adjusted operating profit climbed 25% to £756.6 million for the year to December 31, up from £603.1 million the previous year. Statutory profit before tax increased 21% to £673.8 million, while adjusted basic earnings per share rose 29% to 36.6 pence.

Earnings in focus

RELX plc (LSE:REL) edged 0.2% higher after posting solid 2025 figures, with underlying revenue up 7% to £9.59 billion and adjusted operating profit rising 9% to £3.34 billion. Operating margin improved to 34.8% from 33.9%.

British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) reported a slight beat for its 2025 financial year, delivering organic sales growth of 2.1%, ahead of the 1.9% consensus estimate. The group reiterated guidance at the lower end of its medium-term range, and its shares slipped 1.8% in afternoon trade.

Ashmore Group plc (LSE:ASHM) posted a 64% rise in pre-tax profit to £81.9 million for the six months to December 31, 2025, as assets under management increased 10% to $52.5 billion. The stock added 0.6%.

Meanwhile, Unilever plc (LSE:ULVR) fell 1.7% despite meeting full-year sales expectations at €50.50 billion and announcing a €1.5 billion share buyback. Analysts flagged concerns over whether the group can deliver on its 2026 margin and growth ambitions.

European equities moved higher on Thursday as investors digested a heavy flow of corporate results alongside fresh U.K. economic data.

By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 1%, France’s CAC 40 had added 1.4% and London’s FTSE 100 was 0.4% firmer.

Earnings dominate sentiment

Results from several of Europe’s largest companies for the final quarter of 2025 were in focus. While the outlook for corporate performance has improved somewhat, LSEG data still point to a contraction in fourth-quarter earnings across the region—potentially marking the weakest showing in seven quarters.

“Europe lacks the AI-driven growth engines powering the U.S., but investors are focusing on the cyclical earnings recovery,” analysts at Lombard Odier said in a note. “We expect earnings growth to rise from -3.5 in 2025 to 9% in 2026, slightly below consensus.”

“Almost 25% of corporates have reported, with blended earnings growth – the combination of estimated and reported growth so far – close to 5%. Companies are struggling with the effects of a strong euro and uneven demand.”

Among the day’s movers, Mercedes-Benz Group (TG:MBG) slid after posting a 57% drop in 2025 earnings and a 9% decline in revenue. The luxury carmaker warned that margins in its automotive division could weaken further this year, citing elevated costs, softness in China and global tariff pressures.

By contrast, Hermès (EU:RMS) reported another robust quarter, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 9.8% at constant exchange rates, ahead of expectations for 8.4%. Sales in the Americas climbed 12.1%, outpacing forecasts of around 9%.

Unilever plc (LSE:ULVR) also topped estimates for underlying fourth-quarter sales growth, driven by strong demand for brands such as Dove and Vaseline, although the group cautioned that slower market conditions could weigh on performance in 2026.

British American Tobacco plc (LSE:BATS) posted a 2.3% increase in annual profit as its Velo nicotine pouches gained traction and newer vaping and heated tobacco products expanded sales.

Thyssenkrupp AG (TG:TKA) exceeded expectations in the first quarter, with adjusted EBIT of €211 million, helped by a solid contribution from its Steel Europe division.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (EU:ABI) delivered 7.5% growth in fourth-quarter underlying earnings, surpassing forecasts as all three Americas regions outperformed on both volume and revenue despite subdued consumer spending.

Siemens AG (TG:SIE) lifted its full-year outlook after reporting higher first-quarter orders, revenue and operating profit, reflecting broad-based industrial strength.

In deal news, U.S. asset manager Nuveen agreed to acquire Schroders plc (LSE:SDR) in a transaction valued at just under £10 billion ($13.5 billion), creating a combined entity with close to $2.5 trillion in assets under management.

U.K. economy inches higher

Data released earlier showed the U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in December, slightly slower than November’s 0.2% pace. Quarterly growth for the final three months of 2025 also came in at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026, following six cuts since August 2024.

In the U.S., January nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, beating expectations of 70,000, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% from a projected 4.4%. The figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold until at least the latter half of the year.

Oil edges up on geopolitical tensions

Oil prices ticked higher amid ongoing friction between Washington and Tehran, fueling concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures gained 0.4% to $69.69 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.5% to $64.97. Both benchmarks had climbed about 1% on Wednesday as reports suggested the U.S. could deploy a second aircraft carrier to the region.

Although recent talks between Iran and the U.S. hinted at limited progress, no comprehensive agreement has been reached regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, keeping energy markets cautious.

European equities traded in mixed fashion on Wednesday, with investors reacting to a fresh wave of corporate earnings. Technology names faced selling pressure after Dassault flagged ongoing weakness in the European automotive sector.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 0.8%, while France’s CAC 40 hovered around flat levels. Germany’s DAX Index slipped 0.3%.

Among individual movers, TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) gained 1.3% after the energy group lifted its final 2025 dividend by 5.6% to €3.40 per share.

In contrast, software company Dassault Systemes (EU:DSY) plunged 20% following weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and a subdued outlook for the year ahead.

Dutch recruitment specialist Randstad (EU:RAND) dropped 8.5% after issuing cautious guidance for the first quarter.

Supermarket operator Ahold Delhaize (EU:AD) climbed 7% as its fourth-quarter earnings topped market forecasts.

Heineken (EU:HEIA) rose 5.3% despite announcing plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally as it navigates a challenging demand environment.

German bank Commerzbank (TG:CBK) fell 3%, even after posting a record €4.5 billion operating result for the 2025 fiscal year.

Siemens Energy (TG:SIE) rallied 6% after reporting that first-quarter profit nearly tripled, supported by strong AI-related demand for gas turbines and grid infrastructure equipment.

Thyssenkrupp Nucera (TG:NCH2), a producer of electrolysers, edged up 1.1% after reaffirming its FY26 guidance.

Swiss elevator manufacturer Schindler Holding (TG:SHR) slid 8% after forecasting low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth in local currencies for 2026.

In London, engineering firm Renishaw (LSE:RSW) advanced 2.7% on stronger-than-expected half-year figures.

Housebuilder Barratt Redrow (LSE:BTRW) declined 6.3% after reporting first-half profits that missed expectations.

Meanwhile, shares of London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG) rose 2.5% amid reports that activist investor Elliott Management has taken a sizable position in the company.

U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher early Wednesday as investors positioned for a delayed monthly employment report and continued to digest a heavy slate of corporate earnings.

At 02:33 ET, Dow futures were up 91 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 12 points, also 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 48 points, or 0.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, but the broader S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ended lower, weighed down in part by renewed debate over the disruptive impact of emerging artificial intelligence tools.

Financial stocks were under pressure after wealth-management start-up Altruis unveiled an AI-powered tax planning solution. The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) slid more than 7%, while Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) posted its steepest single-day drop since the height of the 2020 pandemic turmoil.

The weakness mirrored recent AI-driven selloffs in insurance brokers and software names, highlighting broader concerns that the fast-evolving technology could significantly reshape multiple industries. Still, some analysts argue that market anxiety may be running ahead of fundamentals.

Soft retail sales data also dampened sentiment, prompting speculation that U.S. growth could moderate in 2026. Expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve stance increased, with CME FedWatch indicating a rising probability of an April rate cut.

Focus turns to U.S. jobs report

The main event of the day is the delayed January employment report.

Economists forecast that the U.S. economy added approximately 66,000 jobs last month, compared with 50,000 in December.

At its latest policy meeting, the Federal Reserve described the labor market as “stabilizing” after a period of sluggishness. That assessment, combined with inflation that remains elevated but steady, led policymakers to hold interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range.

Earlier this week, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned that advances in artificial intelligence could weigh on job growth in the coming months, even as productivity improves.

With uncertainty surrounding both employment trends and inflation — the Fed’s dual mandates — the outlook for 2026 remains unclear. The payrolls data, along with Friday’s consumer price index, may offer further guidance on the likely trajectory of interest rates.

“Today’s jobs report is a pivotal event for the [foreign exchange] market. A materially weak print would likely pave the way for markets to price in a cut in April,” analysts at ING Groep N.V. said.

Ford forecasts strong year despite tariff-related hit

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares edged higher in extended trading after the automaker delivered profit and cash flow projections that exceeded expectations.

Ford guided for annual operating income of about $9 billion, above the roughly $8.85 billion anticipated by analysts. It also forecast free cash flow of $5.5 billion, topping market estimates.

However, the company reported a fourth-quarter operating loss of $11.1 billion — the largest in its history — after booking a $900 million charge tied to a delay in implementing a tariff-relief program introduced during the Trump administration.

Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the company was informed of the “unexpected” change “very late” in 2025.

Takeover tensions around Warner

Separately, developments continued in the high-profile takeover battle involving Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBD).

According to the Wall Street Journal, activist investor Ancora Holdings has accumulated a stake worth roughly $200 million and is preparing to urge Warner to reject a sweeping offer from Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) for its film and television assets and HBO Max streaming service.

The report said Ancora may argue that Warner has not sufficiently engaged with a competing proposal from Paramount Skydance, led by David Ellison, which seeks to acquire the entire company rather than selected divisions.

Paramount has reportedly enhanced its bid by offering additional cash to Warner shareholders for each quarter the transaction remains incomplete and by covering any breakup fee associated with terminating the Netflix agreement. Nonetheless, its total offer — including debt — remains at $108.4 billion.

Gold and oil advance

Gold prices strengthened after weak U.S. retail sales data fueled expectations of slowing economic momentum, sharpening focus on the upcoming payrolls release.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $5,047.08 per ounce, while futures gained 0.8% to $5,071.34, though prices remained below recent record highs.

Oil markets also moved higher. Brent crude climbed 1.2% to $69.64 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 1.3% to $64.81 per barrel.

European markets struggled for clear direction on Wednesday morning, with investors positioning cautiously ahead of the release of closely watched U.S. labor market data later in the day.

By 09:12 GMT, the STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.1%. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%. In contrast, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.4%.

Earnings in focus across Europe

Corporate results continued to shape trading sentiment across the region.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (EU:AD) climbed after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of €23.5 billion, representing a 6.1% increase at constant exchange rates. Comparable sales excluding fuel rose 2.5%.

Heineken N.V. (EU:HEIA) announced plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally and signaled slower profit growth this year relative to 2025 amid soft demand. Shares nonetheless edged higher following the update.

TotalEnergies SE (EU:TTE) said it would reduce share buybacks by 62% in the current quarter due to weaker oil and gas prices. Analysts broadly endorsed the company’s more cautious stance, and the stock gained 1.4%.

In Germany, Siemens Energy AG (TG:SIE) jumped more than 5% after first-quarter net profit nearly tripled, supported by strong AI-related demand for gas turbines and grid infrastructure.

Across the Atlantic, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares ticked up in after-hours trading after the automaker issued profit and cash flow guidance above expectations, despite absorbing a $900 million impact from a delay in tariff relief measures introduced under President Donald Trump.

Other major U.S. names reporting Wednesday include Cisco Systems, Inc., McDonald’s Corporation, and T-Mobile US, Inc..

Spotlight on U.S. labor market data

Market attention is now turning to U.S. employment figures scheduled for release at 08:30 ET, following a previous delay.

Economists expect the report to show that approximately 66,000 jobs were added in January, compared with 50,000 in December.

At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve characterized the labor market as “stabilizing” after earlier signs of softness. Combined with persistently elevated — though steady — inflation, this assessment prompted policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.

However, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett recently cautioned that advances in artificial intelligence could weigh on job growth in the months ahead, even as productivity improves.

The broader outlook for 2026 remains uncertain given ambiguity around both employment and inflation — the Fed’s two core mandates. In addition to the jobs report, Friday’s consumer price index data may offer further insight into the likely path of interest rates.

“[E]quities don’t want to see a collapse in payrolls, but with Corporate America increasingly preaching about efficiencies and productivity enhancements, it’s expected that job creation will remain tepid going forward,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote.

Oil rebounds amid geopolitical uncertainty

Oil prices moved higher as traders monitored developments in U.S.–Iran relations and assessed travel demand ahead of a major Chinese holiday.

Crude recovered part of Tuesday’s losses, aided by a softer dollar ahead of key U.S. economic releases.

Brent futures rose 1.4% to $69.74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.5% to $64.90.

Iranian officials said nuclear talks with the U.S. had allowed Tehran to evaluate Washington’s seriousness and indicated that diplomatic engagement would continue. The comments followed discussions last week over Iran’s nuclear program, after President Trump dispatched additional warships to the Middle East.

Although both sides cited progress, tensions resurfaced after the U.S. issued a warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Reports also suggested that Trump is weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier near Iran, potentially escalating regional strains.

The evolving situation has prompted traders to factor in a geopolitical risk premium, amid concerns that any military confrontation could disrupt Iranian oil exports.