Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures traded slightly higher on Wednesday after inflation data came in below expectations, easing concerns over additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Investors also continued to monitor a busy earnings season, with strong results from ASML (EU:ASML) reinforcing optimism around artificial intelligence investment, while geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran remained firmly in focus.

Inflation data supports technology shares

S&P 500 futures gained 0.2 percent in early trading, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.6 percent and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1 percent.

The latest inflation report suggested price pressures are continuing to moderate, reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further in the near term. The softer inflation outlook provided support for growth sectors, particularly technology stocks, which are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations.

Trump signals continued pressure on Iran

Geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after President Donald Trump said U.S. military operations against Iran would continue until Tehran agreed to negotiate.

Speaking to Fox News, Trump said discussions had taken place with Iranian officials but warned that military action would continue.

“They better make a deal,” he said, adding that Iran would otherwise, “not have anything left.”

Although Trump abandoned plans to introduce a shipping protection fee for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, investors remain alert to any escalation that could disrupt global oil supplies and revive inflation concerns.

ASML highlights ongoing AI investment

ASML (EU:ASML) raised its full-year outlook after reporting second-quarter results that exceeded expectations.

The company now forecasts annual revenue of between 43 billion euros and 45 billion euros after second-quarter sales reached 9.33 billion euros.

The results suggest semiconductor manufacturers continue to invest heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure, providing further support for companies supplying advanced chipmaking equipment.

IBM underlines changing technology spending

IBM (NYSE:IBM) remained under pressure after warning that customer spending is increasingly shifting towards artificial intelligence infrastructure instead of traditional software.

The sharp decline in IBM shares highlighted the growing divergence between companies benefiting from AI investment and those facing slower demand for legacy technology products.

Investors await more earnings

Attention now turns to another busy session of earnings releases, with BNY (NYSE:BNY), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) all scheduled to report.

The latest earnings updates are expected to provide fresh insight into corporate profitability, consumer demand and the broader outlook for the U.S. economy.

FTSE 100 opens flat as Barratt Redrow boosts shareholder returns, Audioboom posts record results and oil keeps markets focused.

Market Overview

The FTSE 100 opened down slightly at 10,529.05, while the Euronext 100 edged 0.01 per cent lower and Germany’s DAX fell 0.87 per cent. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed higher at 26,107.01 and the S&P 500 finished up at 7,543.59 as investors weighed renewed US-Iran hostilities, rising oil prices and corporate earnings against continued resilience in technology shares.

Commodity markets remained dominated by higher energy prices following renewed attacks linked to the US-Iran conflict, supporting Brent crude while gold also edged higher on safe-haven demand. Copper traded lower and natural gas strengthened. Against sterling, the US dollar, Swiss franc, euro and Japanese yen were little changed, while the Australian dollar was marginally firmer. Bitcoin was down.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Down (0.001%), 10,529.05

Euronext 100: Down (-0.01%), 1,913.94

DAX: Down (-0.87%), 24,928.12

NASDAQ: Up, 26,107.01

S&P 500: Up, 7,543.59

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In the Headlines

Capital Returns – Barratt Redrow (LSE:BTRW)

Barratt Redrow increased planned shareholder returns after delivering a resilient financial year despite challenging housing market conditions. The housebuilder announced a stronger capital return programme centred on share buybacks, underlining confidence in its balance sheet and future cash generation.

Record Half-Year – Audioboom (LSE:BOOM)

Audioboom reported record first-half revenue and profit, reflecting continued growth across its podcast advertising business. The results reinforce the company’s improving operational momentum and expanding monetisation strategy.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Down (-0.01%), $1.3396

CHF: Down (-0.01%), Fr.1.0839

EUR: Unchanged (0.00%), €1.1726

JPY: Up (+0.04%), ¥217.2795

AUD: Down (-0.01%), $1.9202

Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £48,157.37

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Commodities

Copper: Down

Gold: Up

Brent Crude: Down

Natural Gas: Up

The FTSE 100 traded lower on Wednesday as investors reacted to escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, while weaker-than-expected economic growth in China added to concerns over the global outlook. The UK benchmark fell 0.60 percent in early trading, with Germany’s DAX down 0.90 percent and France’s CAC 40 losing 0.28 percent. Sterling strengthened 0.17 percent against the US dollar to 1.3414.

China slowdown and geopolitical tensions pressure markets

China’s economy expanded by 4.3 percent year on year during the second quarter, marking its slowest pace of growth since late 2022. The figure fell short of market expectations and below the Chinese government’s annual growth target, raising concerns about demand in one of the world’s largest commodity-consuming economies.

Investor sentiment was also affected by a fourth consecutive day of military action between the United States and Iran. The United States confirmed further strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and reinstated a naval blockade affecting vessels travelling through Iranian ports.

US President Donald Trump warned that military operations could intensify further unless Iran returned to negotiations. Iran responded with retaliatory strikes against US military assets in the region, while attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over global energy supplies.

Oil rises as supply concerns increase

Brent crude climbed 1.4 percent to 85.90 dollars a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2 percent to 80.32 dollars as investors assessed the potential impact of disruption to Middle East oil exports.

Gold prices moved lower despite the geopolitical uncertainty, with futures falling 0.85 percent to 4,034.40 dollars an ounce and spot gold declining 0.60 percent to 4,029.69 dollars.

UK corporate news

B&M (LSE:BME) reported 2 percent revenue growth in the first quarter, supported by strong trading in France and Heron Foods despite weaker like-for-like sales in the UK.

Barratt Redrow (LSE:BTRW) completed homes at the upper end of its guidance for the 2026 financial year and announced plans for a 400 million pound share buyback programme during 2027.

Thames Water said it has sufficient funding through the fourth quarter of 2026 as it continues discussions with creditors, regulators and the UK government regarding its recapitalisation plans.

Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) increased first-half copper equivalent production by 3 percent and maintained full-year production guidance across its major commodities.

Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) reported a 9.5 percent decline in first-half copper production but kept its full-year production forecast unchanged.

Hunting (LSE:HTG) maintained full-year EBITDA guidance after first-half performance met expectations, supported by continued strength in its subsea and perforating businesses.

ICG (LSE:ICG) reported a 10 percent increase in fee-earning assets under management, driven by strong fundraising for its flagship European structured capital strategy.

U.S. equity futures moved higher on Tuesday after June inflation figures came in well below expectations, improving investor sentiment following Monday’s broad market sell-off.

The latest inflation report reduced fears that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, providing support for risk assets, particularly technology stocks.

June CPI Comes in Below Expectations

The U.S. Labor Department reported that consumer prices declined 0.4% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May. Economists had expected only a modest 0.1% decline.

Annual headline inflation slowed to 3.5%, beating expectations for a reading of 3.8%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged during the month, while the annual core CPI rate eased to 2.6%, below analysts’ forecasts of 2.8%.

Technology Shares Lead Early Recovery

The weaker inflation figures boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less aggressive policy stance, lifting Nasdaq 100 futures by roughly 1.2%.

The gains followed heavy losses for technology stocks during Monday’s session.

IBM Weakness Offsets Some Optimism

One notable exception was IBM (NYSE:IBM), whose shares dropped more than 22% in premarket trading after preliminary second-quarter results failed to meet investor expectations.

The sharp decline limited gains in Dow Jones futures despite the broader improvement in market sentiment.

Monday’s Sell-Off Driven by Oil and Geopolitics

U.S. markets closed sharply lower on Monday after crude oil prices surged nearly 9% amid renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.

The U.S. Central Command confirmed additional strikes on Iranian targets, while Tehran launched attacks against several Gulf states, heightening concerns over regional stability.

President Donald Trump also announced the reinstatement of a blockade on Iranian ports and proposed a 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz as the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait.”

Semiconductor Stocks Under Pressure

Technology shares were further weighed down by a sharp decline in SK Hynix (USOTC:HXSCL), whose U.S.-listed shares fell more than 9%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.8%, while the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index lost 3.3%.

Energy stocks bucked the broader market weakness, benefiting from higher crude oil prices.

European equities traded lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and bond yields adding further pressure to market sentiment.

Government bond yields across the eurozone, the United States and the United Kingdom climbed to their highest levels in eight weeks after crude oil prices reached a one-month high following the announcement of a renewed U.S. blockade targeting Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets Price in Higher Probability of Fed Rate Hike

Investor expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy also increased after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that persistent inflation could justify another interest rate increase.

Money markets are now assigning close to a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting if this week’s core inflation data comes in stronger than expected.

Major European Indices Trade Lower

Germany’s DAX declined 0.8%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.7%.

In London, the FTSE 100 eased 0.4% as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments alongside expectations for central bank policy.

Corporate Movers Across Europe

Swiss engineering company ABB (TG:ABJ) moved lower after announcing an investment in software start-up Gridcog for an undisclosed amount.

Norwegian lender DNB Bank (TG:D1NC) also weakened after reporting a slight decline in second-quarter profit.

Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) recorded one of the day’s biggest losses after warning that profitability within its networks division is expected to weaken.

In London, emerging markets asset manager Ashmore (LSE:ASHM) fell despite reporting quarterly net inflows that exceeded expectations.

British Land Company (LSE:BLND) also traded lower even after announcing strong leasing activity during the opening quarter of its 2027 financial year.

Meanwhile, energy majors BP Plc (LSE:BP.) and Shell (LSE:SHEL) outperformed the broader market as Brent crude climbed to its highest level in a month amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

US markets entered a pivotal week on Tuesday with investors balancing geopolitical risks, the start of earnings season and fresh inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

Stock index futures traded mixed as traders prepared for quarterly results from the country’s largest banks, while the latest Consumer Price Index report and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are expected to provide important signals on the direction of interest rates.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has reportedly tightened access to its artificial intelligence chips, reflecting the continuing impact of US export restrictions on the global semiconductor industry.

Investors Brace for a Heavy Calendar

Market participants remain cautious ahead of a packed economic and corporate calendar.

Alongside earnings from leading financial institutions, investors are monitoring developments in the technology sector after recent volatility linked to artificial intelligence stocks.

The combination of earnings reports, inflation figures and central bank commentary could determine whether US equities regain positive momentum during the coming weeks.

Middle East Tensions Continue to Influence Sentiment

Geopolitical concerns remain elevated after US forces conducted a third consecutive round of military strikes against Iranian targets, saying the operation was aimed at facilities connected to attacks on commercial shipping.

US Central Command said the action was intended to reduce threats to vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies.

President Donald Trump also announced the restoration of a US naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping and proposed introducing a 20% charge on commercial vessels using the Strait of Hormuz.

The developments have reinforced concerns that any disruption to one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors could lift oil prices, increase inflationary pressures and trigger further volatility across global financial markets.

Nvidia Tightens Export Compliance

According to the Financial Times, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has significantly reduced the number of approved Asian customers eligible to purchase its AI processors.

The company has reportedly introduced a stricter approval system covering Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, with many previous customers removed pending additional compliance checks.

The move highlights how export controls are becoming an increasingly important factor for semiconductor manufacturers, even as demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow rapidly.

Bank Earnings Take Centre Stage

Attention is now turning to quarterly earnings from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C).

Because banks provide insight into lending, consumer activity, investment banking and credit quality, their results are often viewed as one of the earliest indicators of broader economic conditions.

Strong earnings could reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy, while disappointing figures may raise concerns that higher interest rates are beginning to weigh on growth.

Inflation Remains the Key Market Driver

June’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to be one of the week’s most closely watched releases.

Investors continue to debate whether the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated well into next year or consider additional tightening if inflation remains persistent.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently said further rate increases could become necessary should inflation stay well above the central bank’s 2% objective.

Markets will also closely follow Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony for additional clues about future monetary policy.

A stronger-than-expected inflation report would likely reduce expectations for future rate cuts and pressure equity markets, particularly technology shares. Conversely, softer inflation data could revive hopes that the Fed may eventually begin easing monetary policy.

European equity markets moved lower on Tuesday as escalating conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices sharply higher, while investors remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data and closely watched Federal Reserve testimony.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.6% in early trading. Energy and defence stocks outperformed the broader market, benefiting from the surge in oil prices.

Germany’s DAX declined 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 lost 0.6%, London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% and Italy’s FTSE MIB eased 0.3%.

Airline shares came under pressure, with Air France-KLM (EU:AF) falling around 3% as rising fuel costs threatened to squeeze profit margins.

Hormuz Shipping Measures Lift Oil Prices

Investor sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping routes in the Gulf.

The US administration also confirmed it would impose a 20% fee on commercial cargo transported through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping corridor for crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

The latest developments follow a third consecutive night of military strikes in the region, intensifying concerns over global energy supplies. Brent crude futures climbed more than 2% to around $85 per barrel, their highest level in a month, extending the previous session’s 9.6% rally.

Inflation Data and Fed Testimony in Focus

Market participants also remained cautious ahead of several important US economic events.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that interest rates may need to rise further if inflation continues to remain significantly above the central bank’s 2% target.

His comments have placed greater emphasis on the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due later in the day, which is expected to provide fresh insight into underlying inflation trends.

Investors are also preparing for two days of congressional testimony from newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets looking for further guidance on the outlook for US monetary policy.

Earnings Season Set to Drive Market Volatility

Beyond geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, attention is turning to the start of the second-quarter earnings season.

Investors are closely watching major US banks, which are due to release quarterly results later in the day. Their performance is expected to provide an important indication of how corporate America is coping with higher interest rates and a more restrictive monetary environment.

Among individual European stocks, Hapag-Lloyd (TG:HLAG) gained nearly 6% after reaffirming its full-year outlook.

Evotec (TG:EVT) plunged around 30% after releasing earnings results and providing a weaker-than-expected outlook.

FTSE 100 opens steady as BP updates second-quarter outlook, Debenhams reports strong trading and Brent crude rises on Middle East tensions.

Market Overview

The FTSE 100 opened broadly flat at 10,498.70, while the Euronext 100 slipped 0.13 per cent and Germany’s DAX fell 0.48 per cent. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed lower at 25,873.18 and the S&P 500 finished at 7,515.34, both declining as investors reacted to renewed tensions in the Middle East. European markets also remained under pressure amid concerns that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the outlook for interest rates.

Commodity markets reflected the geopolitical backdrop, with copper and Brent crude advancing while gold edged lower and natural gas was little changed. Sterling weakened slightly against the US dollar but strengthened against the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and Australian dollar, while Bitcoin rose. Rising oil prices remained the dominant macro driver as investors assessed the potential impact on inflation and global growth.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Up (+0.001%), 10,498.70

Euronext 100: Down (-0.13%), 1,907.05

DAX: Down (-0.48%), 24,993.99

NASDAQ: Down, 25,873.18

S&P 500: Down, 7,515.34

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In the Headlines

Trading Update – BP (LSE:BP.)

BP said second-quarter upstream production is expected to be lower, although oil trading should be slightly stronger than the first quarter. Higher oil prices and stronger refining margins may help offset weaker production ahead of its August results.

Retail Update – Debenhams (LSE:DEBS)

Debenhams reported strong summer trading as its turnaround strategy continued to gain momentum. The update suggests improving consumer demand and operational progress, providing a positive signal for the UK retail sector.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Up (+0.04%), $1.335

CHF: Down (-0.11%), Fr.1.0876

EUR: Down (-0.05%), €1.1728

JPY: Down (-0.04%), ¥216.833

AUD: Down (-0.01%), $1.9293

Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £46,794.59

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Commodities

Copper: Up

Gold: Down

Brent Crude: Up

Natural Gas: Up