Category: Market Summary

Futures tied to the major U.S. indices were largely unchanged, as investors balanced expectations of renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran with a busy earnings calendar. Hopes of easing tensions have helped keep oil prices below the $100-per-barrel mark, even as Washington maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, fresh results from major U.S. banks continue to suggest the domestic economy remains resilient despite geopolitical pressures.

Futures hold near flatline

U.S. equity futures traded in a tight range on Wednesday, with markets digesting developments in Middle East diplomacy alongside a steady stream of corporate earnings.

As of 03:28 ET, futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were broadly flat.

Despite bouts of volatility linked to the Iran conflict and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important shipping corridors—U.S. equities have continued their upward trend. The S&P 500 finished Tuesday close to record levels, while the Nasdaq Composite has climbed about 14% over the past 10 sessions, marking its longest rally since 2021.

Confidence around the early stages of earnings season has also supported markets. Major Wall Street lenders noted that consumer spending and borrowing remain strong, pointing to an economy that has so far withstood the potential impact of an energy shock tied to the conflict.

“It’s still way too early in the [calendar year first quarter] earnings season to draw any firm conclusions, but so far, we’ve been impressed by the resiliency of Corporate America,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Trump points to possible Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that discussions between Washington and Tehran could resume within the next couple of days, following an initial round of talks held in Pakistan over the weekend.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation in Islamabad, also struck a positive tone regarding the progress of negotiations.

However, the U.S. has continued enforcing its blockade on Iranian ports, with officials stating that maritime trade in and out of the country has effectively come to a halt. The restrictions were introduced earlier this week after talks in Pakistan failed to produce an immediate ceasefire, though expectations for a quick agreement had already been tempered.

The blockade has heightened concerns about oil flows through the Persian Gulf, where shipments have already slowed considerably. Still, the Wall Street Journal reported that more than 20 commercial vessels have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting some improvement in shipping activity.

Oil prices remain contained

With expectations of a possible de-escalation, crude prices stayed below the $100 threshold.

At 03:16 ET, Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $95.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to $91.12.

The softer oil backdrop has contributed to a modest pullback in the U.S. dollar, which had strengthened earlier in the conflict as a safe-haven asset. A dollar index tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies is now only slightly above pre-war levels seen in late February.

Even so, oil prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels, reflecting ongoing supply concerns tied to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes.

According to Reuters, supply risks could increase further after the U.S. chose not to extend a 30-day waiver on sanctions covering Iranian oil shipments at sea, which is set to expire this week. A similar waiver on Russian oil was also not renewed after expiring last weekend.

Focus turns to more bank earnings

Attention is now shifting to additional earnings from U.S. lenders, including Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), both scheduled to report later in the day.

Heightened market volatility—driven by geopolitical tensions and rapid developments in artificial intelligence—has boosted trading revenues at major banks. Firms such as JPMorgan Chase tend to benefit from increased market activity, as clients adjust portfolios and execute more hedging trades.

JPMorgan reported a 20% increase in markets revenue for the three months ended March 31, reflecting similar performance at peers like Goldman Sachs.

Despite turbulent conditions, banking executives have also pointed to a strong pipeline for dealmaking, with expectations that 2026 could see a surge in major transactions, particularly involving companies in artificial intelligence and space sectors.

European earnings also in focus

In Europe, corporate results have also influenced sentiment.

Hermès (EU:RMS) reported slower quarterly sales growth due to demand pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Kering (EU:KER) posted weaker sales, although it noted signs of improving demand trends. Together with recent results from LVMH, these updates suggest the luxury sector may be facing mounting headwinds.

Shares of Hermès and Kering both fell sharply on Wednesday.

On the other hand, ASML (EU:ASML) provided support to broader European markets. The company raised its full-year sales outlook, benefiting from strong demand tied to the artificial intelligence boom. Chipmakers such as TSMC and Intel continue to invest heavily in its technology as they expand their AI capabilities.

ASML shares rose by more than 1%.

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open on Tuesday, suggesting markets may build on the strong gains recorded in the previous session.

Investor sentiment is being lifted by renewed optimism surrounding a potential second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iranian officials had reached out to Washington about restarting discussions, stating, “They’d like to make a deal very badly.”

Expectations of renewed talks have weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude futures dropping more than 3%.

“Previously, the narrative was straightforward: the longer the war dragged on, the worse the outlook for growth, inflation and risk assets,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com. “Now, the dynamic appears to have flipped.”

“With a ceasefire framework still loosely in place and the US attempting to control the Strait, the absence of escalation, rather than the presence of conflict, is being treated as a positive signal,” she added. “In other words, each day without a major disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure is being read as incremental progress toward stabilization.”

Market confidence also received a boost from fresh economic data. Figures from the U.S. Department of Labor showed producer price inflation rose less than expected in March.

The producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% during the month, in line with a revised reading for February. Economists had forecast a larger 1.2% gain compared to the originally reported 0.7% rise in the previous month.

On a yearly basis, producer prices rose 4.0% in March, up from 3.4% in February, but still below expectations of 4.6%.

Stocks initially declined early in Monday’s session but staged a strong recovery as the day progressed, ending firmly in positive territory.

The Nasdaq climbed 280.84 points, or 1.2%, to 23,183.74, the S&P 500 advanced 69.35 points, or 1.0%, to 6,886.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 301.68 points, or 0.7%, to 48,218.25.

Traders continue to monitor geopolitical developments after weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce an agreement.

“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” said JD Vance at a brief press briefing, while noting that negotiations could still resume. Iranian officials said that “unreasonable U.S. demands” had hindered progress.

Markets largely brushed aside reports that President Trump had imposed a naval blockade on traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports.

U.S. Central Command confirmed that the blockade would apply to vessels from all countries operating in Iranian ports and nearby waters, including the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

He also stated that U.S. forces are “locked and loaded” and ready to “finish up the little that is left of Iran” at an “appropriate moment.”

Although these developments initially pushed oil prices higher, investors appear to believe that tensions will ease and a broader conflict can be avoided.

Attention is also turning to the start of earnings season, with expectations that corporate results will remain resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.

Sector-wise, software stocks rebounded strongly, lifting the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index by 4.6%, while computer hardware shares also advanced, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index gaining 4.4%.

Brokerage stocks posted solid gains as well, pushing the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index up 2.9%.

Transportation, semiconductor, and networking stocks also moved higher, while utilities and natural gas shares lagged.

U.S. equity futures ticked modestly higher on Tuesday, while oil prices retreated, as investors responded to signs of possible progress in efforts to bring the Iran conflict to a lasting end. However, a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has now entered its second day, further disrupting crude shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a wave of major U.S. bank earnings is set to dominate market attention, while LVMH (EU:MC) highlighted a hit to sales from the Middle East tensions.

Futures Move Higher

U.S. stock futures showed slight gains, supported by optimism surrounding ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire. Investors are also bracing for a busy earnings session led by major financial institutions.

As of 03:17 ET, Dow futures rose by 51 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures added 10 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 72 points, or 0.3%.

Wall Street’s main indices had closed higher in the previous session, as initial disappointment over the lack of an immediate breakthrough in weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran began to fade. U.S. President Donald Trump said the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials and that he wants to “make a deal,” adding that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon.

“[W]hile the meeting was certainly disappointing, it was hardly catastrophic, and if one looks closely, Trump seems to be pivoting aggressively away from kinetic escalation,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note.

They added that their overall view of the conflict remains “relatively sanguine,” although the “economic fallout from what’s already occurred” could prove “significant.”

U.S. Port Blockade Extends

At the same time, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, introduced on Monday, is adding further pressure to oil flows already constrained through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has condemned the move as an “act of piracy,” with reports indicating that roughly 15 U.S. warships are involved. British maritime authorities said access has been restricted for vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, as well as in coastal waters across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic channels appear to be making headway. According to Reuters, the U.S. and Iran remain engaged, with some progress toward a permanent ceasefire agreement.

Pakistan, which has emerged as a key intermediary, has offered to host a second round of talks ahead of the expiration of the current two-week truce. The initial meeting took place in Islamabad over the weekend.

Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are set to begin direct peace talks in Washington, although ongoing Israeli strikes against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon remain a key source of tension.

Oil Slips Below $100

Expectations that diplomacy could lead to easing tensions—and potentially restore smoother shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—have pushed oil prices lower, with both major benchmarks falling below $100 per barrel.

Brent crude declined 1.5% to $97.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.4% to $95.78 a barrel.

Even so, the outlook remains uncertain. In its first assessment of the Iran conflict’s impact released Monday, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.

However, the reduction was less severe than some projections, and OPEC left its full-year outlook unchanged, suggesting expectations for a rebound in consumption later in 2026.

Bank Earnings in Focus

Market attention is now turning to the earnings calendar, with several major U.S. banks set to report results.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are due to release quarterly figures ahead of the market open, followed by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Wednesday.

Analysts expect results to be supported by strong trading activity and investment banking revenues, even as uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict lingers. Earlier this month, Jamie Dimon warned that the conflict could trigger commodity price shocks, keeping inflation elevated and pushing interest rates higher than current expectations.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported a 19% rise in first-quarter profit, driven by robust performance across its trading and investment banking divisions.

LVMH Flags Sales Impact

In Europe, shares of LVMH (EU:MC) fell in early trading after the company said the Middle East conflict had reduced group sales by at least 1%, weighing on expectations for a continued recovery in the luxury sector.

The group, which owns brands such as Louis Vuitton and Bulgari, reported quarterly sales growth of 1%, missing forecasts for a 1.5% increase, according to Visible Alpha estimates cited by Reuters.

Chief Financial Officer Cécile Cabanis said that “[w]hat we see today is still that demand is very much down” following disruptions to shopping activity in the Middle East since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Rival Kering (EU:KER), owner of Gucci, is scheduled to report results after the close of European markets later in the day.

U.S. equity futures signaled a softer open on Monday, with markets poised to pull back after last week’s strong rally.

Renewed concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East are weighing on sentiment after weekend negotiations between Washington and Tehran ended without a breakthrough.

“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance said during a brief press appearance, while noting that discussions could still resume. Iran responded by blaming “unreasonable U.S. demands” for the lack of progress.

Oil’s sharp rebound is also expected to pressure equities early in the session, with crude futures climbing back above the $100-per-barrel mark.

The move higher follows comments from President Donald Trump, who said the U.S. would move to restrict shipping linked to Iran through the Strait of Hormuz after talks collapsed.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

He also warned that U.S. forces are “locked and loaded” and ready to “finish up the little that is left of Iran” at an “appropriate moment.”

“Markets are once again being pulled between competing forces, with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East reintroducing uncertainty just as investors turn their focus toward the start of earnings season,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com.

She added, “After a brief period of relief following ceasefire hopes, the breakdown in talks and the emergence of a ‘blockade of the blockade’ strategy by the US has pushed the narrative back toward duration risk: how long this conflict will last and how deeply it will impact the global economy.”

Stocks ended last week on a mixed note after a relatively subdued session on Friday, following a rebound on Thursday.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 80.48 points, or 0.4%, to close at 22,902.89, marking its highest finish in over a month. The S&P 500 slipped 7.77 points, or 0.1%, to 6,816.89, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 269.23 points, or 0.6%, to 47,916.57.

Despite the uneven finish, all three major indexes recorded solid weekly gains, driven largely by a strong midweek rally. The Nasdaq surged 4.7% over the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%, and the Dow rose 3.0%.

The Dow’s decline on Friday was partly due to weakness in Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), which fell 3.5%. Other blue chips, including Nike (NYSE:NKE), IBM (NYSE:IBM), and Verizon (NYSE:VZ), also moved lower.

Investors remain cautious as uncertainty lingers over whether the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East can hold.

Ahead of the weekend talks in Pakistan, Trump criticized Iran’s handling of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, saying it was doing a “very poor job” and adding, “That is not the agreement we have!”

He also addressed reports that Iran was charging fees to tankers using the waterway, warning, “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

In a separate message, Trump said, “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!”

On the economic front, traders largely overlooked a report from the University of Michigan showing a sharp drop in consumer sentiment in April.

The index fell to 47.6 from 53.3 in March, well below expectations of 52.0 and marking a record low, as concerns about the Iran conflict and inflation weighed on confidence.

Separately, data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, matching forecasts.

Sector performance was mixed overall.

Semiconductor stocks stood out, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 2.3% to a record closing high.

Gold and computer hardware shares also posted gains, while software, biotech, and healthcare stocks lagged.

Geopolitical tensions are setting the tone at the start of the trading week, with the U.S. decision to impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz fuelling volatility. The move has lifted oil prices once again, while upcoming inflation data and a packed earnings calendar could shape sentiment in the days ahead.

1. U.S. begins Hormuz blockade

The U.S. military has confirmed it will implement restrictions on vessels linked to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz from 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, following an order from President Donald Trump after weekend talks with Tehran broke down.

The Pentagon said ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” will be affected, while vessels not tied to Iran will still be able to transit the waterway.

The move follows 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan that failed to secure an extension to the fragile two-week ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. side, said Iran rejected demands to curb its nuclear program. Pakistan, which mediated the talks, urged both parties to “uphold their commitment to ceasefire.”

Meanwhile, separate talks between Israel and Lebanon are due in Washington this week, though ongoing strikes on Hezbollah-linked targets continue to cast doubt over the durability of a broader regional truce.

2. Oil prices surge past $100 again

Crude markets rallied on Monday, with prices climbing back above the $100 per barrel mark.

Brent crude rose 6.7% to $101.65, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 7.1% to $103.42.

Despite the sharp move, Pepperstone analysts described the reaction as “relatively contained,” suggesting investors largely see the blockade as a negotiating tactic rather than an immediate supply shock.

“I’d not be at all surprised to see risk assets remain underpinned to a degree, with continued hope that a deal can be agreed likely to continue to encourage dip buying, even as crude benchmarks are likely to grind steadily higher as physical supply tightens further,” said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

Oil had briefly fallen below $100 last week after the ceasefire announcement, which came after Trump warned Iran’s “civilization” could be destroyed if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Even so, prices continue to trade well above pre-conflict levels.

3. Focus turns to U.S. producer prices

The rebound in energy costs has heightened concerns about inflation and its implications for global monetary policy.

Investors will be watching closely for U.S. producer price index (PPI) data this week, which will reflect price trends in March—the first full month impacted by the Iran conflict.

Recent consumer price figures already showed a notable rise, driven largely by higher fuel costs. Energy prices increased 12.5% year-on-year, up sharply from 0.5% in February.

However, core inflation—excluding food and energy—came in below expectations at 2.6% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.

Given this softer core reading, analysts suggest the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach when interpreting inflation data. The upcoming PPI release could provide further clarity on the outlook for interest rates.

“A stronger-than-expected [PPI] reading would reinforce the case for a ‘higher for longer’ rate outlook, likely supporting the dollar and leaving EUR/USD’s recent rebound vulnerable to renewed downside,” said Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets.

4. Bank earnings kick off reporting season

The U.S. earnings season gathers momentum this week, starting with results from major financial institutions.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is among the first to report, with its stock up about 3% year-to-date. Trading revenues have benefited from portfolio adjustments linked to developments in artificial intelligence, while its investment banking arm has also shown growth.

However, the conflict in Iran could weigh on outlooks. While market volatility can boost trading activity, higher commodity prices may deter companies from pursuing large transactions such as mergers and acquisitions, potentially impacting advisory revenues.

Other banks set to report include JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

Outside the banking sector, results are also expected from Netflix and PepsiCo.

5. European luxury earnings in spotlight

In Europe, attention will also turn to the luxury sector, where several major players are due to report.

LVMH (EU:MC) will release first-quarter sales, with geopolitical developments likely to influence its outlook. Rivals Kering SA (EU:KER) and Hermès (EU:RMS) are also scheduled to report.

Reuters has reported that luxury sales in hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have weakened due to the conflict, weighing on the roughly $400 billion sector.

Meanwhile, ASML (EU:ASML is set to report on Wednesday, with investors focused on its ability to meet strong demand from artificial intelligence chipmakers.