Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures pointed lower at the start of the week, as concerns over a potential naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled talks between Washington and Tehran dampened investor sentiment. Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel, with markets questioning how long the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire can hold. Attention is also turning to upcoming earnings from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which will help kick off the U.S. reporting season, alongside results from LVMH (EU:MC).

Futures point to a weaker open

U.S. stock futures declined on Monday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical risks after President Donald Trump warned of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following unsuccessful weekend negotiations with Iran.

At 03:28 ET, Dow futures were down 239 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures fell 40 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 168 points, or 0.7%. European and Asian markets also traded unevenly, while oil prices surged and the dollar strengthened.

Wall Street had finished Friday on a mixed note, as investors remained cautious ahead of the high-stakes discussions in Pakistan. A temporary two-week ceasefire was agreed last week, but doubts remain over whether it can evolve into a lasting peace.

Traders are also digesting inflation data showing a sharp rise in consumer prices in March, driven largely by higher gasoline costs tied to the energy shock from the conflict. Oil has rallied since late February, when tensions escalated and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows—were severely disrupted.

Trump signals move on Hormuz

On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. Navy would impose an “immediate” blockade of the Strait to restrict shipping.

He warned that vessels paying tolls imposed by Tehran would not be assured “safe passage on the high seas.”

The Pentagon later clarified that restrictions would apply to ships “entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas,” while other vessels would still be permitted to pass through the Strait.

The announcement follows 21 hours of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan, which ended without an agreement to extend the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation, said Iran had rejected demands to curb its nuclear program. Tehran has yet to respond publicly, while Pakistan—acting as mediator—urged both sides to “uphold their commitment to ceasefire.”

Oil reclaims $100 level

Crude prices surged again on Monday, pushing back above the $100 threshold.

Brent crude rose 6.7% to $101.65, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 7.1% to $103.42.

Despite the rally, analysts at Pepperstone described the market response as “relatively contained,” suggesting investors see the blockade as part of a negotiating strategy.

“While it’s clearly a risk-averse start to the trading week, […] the general market reaction can be summed up as ‘could be worse’,” said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

Oil had slipped below $100 last week following the ceasefire announcement, which came after Trump warned Iran’s “civilization” could be destroyed if the Strait remained closed. Even so, prices remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.

Goldman Sachs earnings ahead

Focus now shifts to results from major U.S. banks, starting with Goldman Sachs ahead of the opening bell.

Shares in Goldman have risen about 3% year-to-date, supported by strong trading volumes as investors reposition portfolios amid the rise of artificial intelligence. Its investment banking division has also shown resilience.

However, the conflict in Iran could overshadow the results. While market volatility can boost trading income, persistently high commodity prices may discourage companies from pursuing large deals such as mergers and acquisitions, potentially weighing on advisory revenues.

Other major banks reporting this week include JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

LVMH to report

LVMH (EU:MC), the world’s largest luxury goods company and owner of brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior, is set to release first-quarter sales later today, with the Middle East conflict likely to influence its outlook.

According to Reuters, luxury sales in hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have weakened due to the conflict, affecting companies like LVMH as well as rivals including Kering SA (EU:KER) and Hermès (EU:RMS).

At Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates, luxury sales reportedly dropped by as much as 50% in March, while footfall at Dubai Mall fell by a similar margin. In Abu Dhabi’s Galleria mall, overall sales declined by around 10%.

Although the Middle East accounts for a relatively small share of LVMH’s revenue, analysts cited by Reuters believe the impact on profitability—reported on a half-year basis—could be more pronounced.

Global oil and gas stocks moved higher on Monday as crude prices climbed past the $100-per-barrel mark, following U.S. action to restrict maritime activity linked to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations between Washington and Tehran broke down.

Brent crude rose 7.3% to $102.16 per barrel by 08:35 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate jumped roughly 8% to $104.24. Both benchmarks had ended the previous session lower before rebounding sharply.

The surge in oil prices lifted energy equities across major markets. In the U.S., ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) each gained more than 2% in premarket trading, while ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) rose 3.4% and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) added 3.1%.

Across Europe, BP plc (LSE:BP.) and Shell plc (LSE:SHEL) both climbed around 1.4%, while TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) edged up 1.3% and Repsol (BIT:1REP) gained roughly 2%.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Navy would move to enforce a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions after prolonged talks with Iran failed to yield an agreement and putting a fragile two-week ceasefire at risk. He also cautioned that fuel prices could remain elevated through the November midterm elections.

U.S. Central Command confirmed the measure would take effect at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, targeting vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. However, ships transiting the Strait between non-Iranian ports would not be affected, according to CENTCOM.

The latest escalation follows a brief period of calm after a ceasefire had allowed shipping routes to reopen, sending oil prices sharply lower last week before the current rebound.

Rabobank energy strategist Joe DeLaura had warned during last week’s dip that markets were underestimating risks, arguing that futures were “far too optimistic” and that there was “so much risk to the upside” still not reflected in prices.

“There’s permanent production loss from the shut ins in Saudi, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq. Refinery and pipeline damage plus the physical restart times, on top of the backlog of 800+ tankers trapped on the west side of the Strait,” he told Investing.com.

“Brent futures seem to have a floor around $90, and I think no ceasefire (no easy opening of a mined strait of Hormuz) means that futures will eventually have to start matching physical markets around $120-130/bbl (or more!).”

European airline shares declined sharply on Monday, falling between 2.7% and 7.7%, as a spike in oil prices added pressure to the sector. Brent crude climbed 8% to $102.78 per barrel by 09:00 GMT, weighing on carriers such as Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY), International Airlines Group (LSE:IAG), Lufthansa (TG:LHA), Air France-KLM (EU:AF), easyJet (LSE:EZJ) and Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ).

During the session, Brent reached an intraday peak of $103.49 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark WTI rose 7.2% to $96.03.

The move in oil markets followed an order from U.S. President Donald Trump directing the Navy to impose a blockade on Iranian ports after ceasefire negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend in Pakistan.

According to U.S. Central Command, the blockade targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports was scheduled to begin at 10:00 ET on Monday. The measure is more limited than earlier proposals to block all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. delegation in Pakistan was led by Vice President JD Vance, who departed early on Sunday after 21 hours of talks failed to produce an agreement.

Key sticking points included Iran’s nuclear programme, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s backing of proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran signalled it does not intend to resume nuclear discussions with Washington, while Trump indicated he was unconcerned about whether negotiations restart.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that governments in the Middle East are attempting to facilitate further dialogue between the United States and Iran.

Iran has restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz since late February, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply and contributing to ongoing volatility in energy markets.

U.S. stock futures indicated a largely flat opening on Friday, pointing to a cautious tone as markets pause following a late rebound in the previous session.

Investors appear hesitant to take decisive positions amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East ceasefire.

Ahead of scheduled U.S.-Iran discussions in Pakistan this weekend, President Donald Trump criticized Iran, saying it is doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, adding, “That is not the agreement we have!”

He also addressed reports that Iran may be charging fees to tankers passing through the key shipping route, warning, “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

“With talks between Tehran and Washington set to get underway on Saturday, investors could be in for a fretful weekend as they wait for indications of whether a path to lasting peace is possible,” said AJ Bell’s head of markets Dan Coatsworth. “Ahead of this, investors may well be tempted to hedge their bets.”

Futures showed little movement after the Labor Department reported that U.S. consumer prices rose in line with expectations in March.

Following Wednesday’s strong rally, stocks retreated early in Thursday’s session before rebounding later in the day. The major indices recovered from intraday lows and closed in positive territory.

This extended the upward momentum, pushing the benchmarks to their highest closing levels in over a month.

The Nasdaq gained 187.42 points, or 0.8%, to 22,822.42, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.88 points, or 0.6%, to 48,185.80, and the S&P 500 advanced 41.85 points, or 0.6%, to 6,824.66.

The turnaround came as traders monitored geopolitical developments and their effect on oil markets.

Crude oil initially rebounded sharply after Wednesday’s steep drop, before paring gains while still ending significantly higher.

The earlier surge reflected concerns about the stability of the ceasefire, with Iran accusing the U.S. and Israel of breaching the agreement.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said in an interview with the BBC that the country had once again shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Khatibzadeh described Israel’s strikes on Lebanon as an “intentional grave violation” of the ceasefire.

Oil prices later eased after Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would begin negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible.”

He added that the discussions would focus on disarming Hezbollah and working toward more stable ties between the two nations.

On a sector basis, retail stocks posted strong gains, with the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index rising 2.9% to its highest level in more than two months.

Semiconductor stocks also performed well, as reflected in a 2.1% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Transportation and banking stocks moved higher, while software shares remained under pressure throughout the session.

Futures tied to major U.S. stock indices showed little movement on Friday, as investors remained cautious amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Ongoing Israeli strikes against Hezbollah-linked targets in Lebanon have heightened uncertainty ahead of potential weekend talks between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, oil prices edged higher while gold slipped, with market participants also preparing for key U.S. inflation data.

Futures remain subdued

U.S. equity futures traded with a cautious tone early in the session, reflecting concerns over geopolitical tensions, continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the imminent release of inflation figures.

As of 03:27 ET, Dow futures were down 60 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures fell by 4 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely unchanged.

Wall Street closed the previous session higher, supported by remarks from Benjamin Netanyahu indicating that Israel may pursue talks with Lebanon. Despite the announcement of a temporary ceasefire earlier in the week, Israeli forces have continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah positions, including strikes reported on Friday.

Iranian officials have suggested that continued Israeli military action could jeopardize any planned negotiations with the U.S., particularly if attacks persist. There also appears to be disagreement between Washington and Tehran over whether Lebanon is covered by the current ceasefire arrangement.

Even so, expectations for a potential easing of tensions have helped sustain risk appetite. U.S. equities have now recorded seven consecutive sessions of gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to positive territory for the year.

Outside geopolitical developments, consumer discretionary stocks were supported after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy said the company’s cloud-based artificial intelligence services are generating more than $15 billion in revenue.

Oil rises on supply disruptions

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, with volumes still running below 10% of normal levels despite the ceasefire.

Iran has instructed vessels to remain within its territorial waters when passing through the strait, a critical route for global oil supplies. This disruption continues to impact countries heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly in Asia, while Europe depends on gas supplies from Gulf nations affected by recent tensions.

In addition, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have reduced oil production capacity by roughly 600,000 barrels per day and cut flows along the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels per day.

These supply concerns helped push oil prices higher. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $97.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to $99.25. Although the ceasefire has set crude on course for its sharpest weekly decline since June 2025, prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels.

Gold dips but set for weekly gain

Gold prices moved lower during European trading but remained on track for a weekly advance.

Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, gold has struggled during the Iran conflict. Higher oil prices have fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

Investors have instead favored the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened and made gold more expensive for international buyers. However, the dollar has weakened over the past week amid renewed optimism around a potential ceasefire.

“These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume,” analysts at ING said in a note.

Focus turns to inflation data

Attention now shifts to the release of U.S. consumer price index data for March, which could provide insight into the inflationary impact of recent energy price increases.

Economists expect headline inflation to accelerate sharply from February levels, driven largely by rising gasoline prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The national average price of gasoline has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, while diesel prices have also surged.

However, the data is likely to capture only the immediate effects of higher oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise at a more moderate pace.

ING analysts noted that the Federal Reserve may place less emphasis on the headline figure in the near term.

TSMC posts strong revenue growth

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) reported a sharp increase in first-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand tied to artificial intelligence.

March revenue climbed 45.2% year on year to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion), while rising 30.7% compared with February.

For the quarter, total revenue reached T$1.13 trillion, slightly exceeding estimates and marking a significant increase from T$839.25 billion recorded a year earlier.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker opening on Thursday, suggesting markets could retreat after the strong rally recorded in the previous trading session.

Investors may be inclined to take profits after Wednesday’s surge as concerns resurface about the stability of the Middle East ceasefire. Iran has accused both the United States and Israel of breaching the agreement.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said in an interview with the BBC that Tehran has again shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Khatibzadeh described Israeli strikes on Lebanon earlier in the day as an “intentional grave violation” of the ceasefire agreement.

Oil markets reacted quickly to the developments. U.S. crude futures rebounded sharply, climbing more than 5% after plunging more than 16% during Wednesday’s trading.

“There is an air of renewed nervousness pervading financial markets after the euphoria which was initially prompted by the US-Iran ceasefire,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

“This agreement already seems to be fraying at the edges – with continued strikes by Israel on Lebanon a key sticking point,” he added. “With talks on a lasting deal yet to begin it’s understandable that investors are taking a circumspect view.”

Late Wednesday, President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that U.S. troops would remain in the region until a “real agreement” with Iran is achieved and “fully complied with.”

Despite the emerging concerns, stocks posted strong gains during Wednesday’s session, with the major indexes finishing at their highest levels in roughly a month.

The rally followed a mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,325.46 points, or 2.9%, to 47,909.92. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 617.15 points, or 2.8%, to 22,635.00, while the S&P 500 rose 165.96 points, or 2.5%, to 6,782.81.

The initial surge on Wall Street was driven by reports that the United States, Israel and Iran had agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday evening, President Trump said he had agreed to halt bombing operations against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran accepted the complete, immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said Washington had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he believed was a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” adding that the two-week pause would allow time for the agreement to be finalized.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen for two weeks if attacks against Iran were halted.

The ceasefire announcement sent oil prices sharply lower, with U.S. crude futures plunging more than 15% and falling well below $100 per barrel.

“The positive market reaction is understandable as a two-week ceasefire raises hope for a complete end to the conflict,” Coatsworth said.

“The ceasefire gives the world a moment to breathe and take stock of events,” he added. “Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that everything will return to normal.”

Airline stocks were among the top performers during Wednesday’s rally, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping 7.3% to its highest closing level in a month.

Semiconductor shares also rallied strongly, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 6.3%.

Networking stocks joined the advance, pushing the NYSE Arca Networking Index higher by 5.3%.

Housing, computer hardware and financial stocks also recorded notable gains, while oil producers and natural gas companies moved lower, diverging from the broader market trend.