Category: Top Story

U.S. equity futures moved higher on Tuesday as crude oil prices continued to fall, with Brent dropping below $100 a barrel and U.S. crude futures declining by more than 2%.

Reports indicated that Middle Eastern crude exports were moving back toward levels recorded before the Iran conflict, although risks to regional shipping remained.

Saudi Aramco also cut its November official selling prices for crude delivered to Asia by the largest amount in six years as oil flows recovered following earlier disruptions.

The G7’s planned release of 100 million barrels from emergency reserves added to the developments affecting the oil market.

Treasury Yields Retreat From Multi-Decade High

Treasury yields declined on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year yield moving lower after reaching its highest level since April 2002 during Monday’s session.

Markets were also awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for further information about officials’ views ahead of the next interest rate decision later this month.

Recent inflation and employment figures have reduced expectations for an immediate rate increase. August’s annual consumer price growth was below economists’ forecasts, while September employment growth was weaker than anticipated.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 21.6% implied probability of a quarter-point rate increase later this month, down from 70.9% a week earlier.

Longer-term Treasury yields had nevertheless continued to rise during Monday’s session despite the reduction in expectations for a near-term increase in the federal funds rate.

“That reinforces the idea that the long-end sell-off is being driven by more than monetary policy: elevated real yields, heavy borrowing and competition for capital continue to demand a higher term premium,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com.

She added, “For equities, this creates an unusual divergence as growth stocks are rallying because Fed expectations have softened, while the risk-free rate against which those valuations are judged remains exceptionally high.”

Nasdaq Closes at Record as U.S. Stocks Advance

The major U.S. equity indices finished Monday higher, although they gave back part of their earlier gains before the close.

The Nasdaq rose 286.45 points, or 1.1%, to a record closing level of 27,477.31. The S&P 500 added 51.23 points, or 0.7%, to 7,773.95, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 90.94 points, or 0.2%, to 51,267.90.

The session followed U.S. inflation and employment reports that reduced market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase later this month.

ISM Services PMI Eases to 54.9

U.S. services activity continued to expand in September, although the pace moderated from the previous month.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI came in at 54.9, compared with 55.4 in August and economists’ expectations of 55.0. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in activity.

Brokerage stocks were among Monday’s gainers, with the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index advancing 3.6%. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index rose 3.1% despite the decline in crude prices.

Biotechnology, oil producer and software stocks also recorded gains, while airline shares moved lower.

European stocks moved higher on Tuesday as Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel, while eurozone government bond yields declined and the spread between French and German 10-year yields narrowed.

Signs of continued Middle Eastern crude exports accompanied the decline in oil prices.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.5% and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3%.

German Factory Orders Fall 10.6%

German economic data showed factory orders fell 10.6% month over month in August, following a 3.2% increase in July.

Separate data showed that Germany’s construction sector contracted in September, with housing activity recording a decline.

Despite the economic data, the country’s benchmark equity index remained higher during Tuesday’s session.

Skanska and United Internet Shares Advance

Skanska (TG:SKNB) shares rose after the Swedish engineering and construction company announced an additional contract worth $138 million, or approximately SEK 1.3 billion, for the construction of a technology facility in the United States.

United Internet (TG:UTDI) also advanced after the German internet services company said it would receive 35,352,929 new 1&1 shares at a calculated issue price of €24.05 per share.

Informa (LSE:INF) shares moved higher after the British publishing and exhibitions company agreed to acquire Clarion Events from Blackstone Inc. for £2.24 billion in cash.

Shipping services provider Clarkson (LSE:CKN) also gained after increasing its full-year profit before tax forecast.

Genmab Rises Following Phase III Trial Results

Genmab (TG:GE9) shares advanced after the Danish biotechnology company and its U.S. partner AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) announced positive results from another Phase III trial evaluating epcoritamab in combination with R-CHOP.

Schneider Electric (EU:SU), meanwhile, declined after Bulgaria-based IoT and smart building solutions company Shelly Group SE said its board supported a takeover offer from the French energy technology company.

U.S. equity futures traded modestly higher on Tuesday as investors monitored oil exports from the Gulf, upcoming Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) earnings and August U.S. trade data.

At 03:09 ET, Dow futures gained 170 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures advanced 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 36 points, or 0.1%.

Wall Street’s main indices finished higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite recording a new closing high. A decline in crude prices accompanied the equity gains, while expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decisions remained under consideration.

Separate services-sector data showed that prices paid by companies reached their highest level since 2022 in September, according to the supplied material. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield subsequently reached its highest level in more than two decades.

Sovereign debt developments in Europe also remained under scrutiny. Deutsche Bank analysts said there were “initial signs that the pressure on France was stabilizing, with a clear outperformance in French debt.”

Gulf Crude Exports Recover During September

Gulf crude exports exceeded levels recorded before the start of the Iran war on 14 days during September, according to Kpler shipping data cited by Reuters.

The seven-day moving average of crude exports from the region reached 18.3 million barrels per day on 30 September.

The figures indicated that oil shipments continued despite risks affecting commercial vessels in the region. According to the supplied material, Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz after the war began, disrupting a shipping route that previously handled approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

The conflict has also affected Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another important route for maritime trade.

Vital Knowledge analysts described the volume of oil leaving the Middle East as “fairly healthy considering all the turmoil,” but said the cost of moving a barrel through Hormuz was “substantially higher than before the war.”

Vital Knowledge said these additional transportation costs could keep prices paid by end customers elevated. This represents the firm’s assessment and not a confirmed forecast.

Brent crude futures were down 0.8% at $99.53 per barrel.

Constellation Brands Earnings in Focus

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is due to release its quarterly results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday.

Bloomberg consensus forecasts call for comparable operating profit of $872.3 million and comparable net sales of $2.53 billion.

The company reported fiscal first-quarter profit above market expectations in June and maintained its fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings-per-share outlook of $11.20 to $11.90.

Analysts cited in the supplied material previously identified the FIFA World Cup and lower oil prices at the time as factors supporting demand. Those comments represent analyst assessments rather than confirmed explanations from Constellation Brands.

August U.S. Trade Figures Due

Investors are also awaiting August U.S. trade data after the country’s trade deficit widened in July.

The deficit increased 24.4% to $88.6 billion in July, according to Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau figures cited in the supplied material.

Imports increased 2.8% to $399.3 billion. The supplied material linked part of the increase in import demand to consumer expenditure and spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The upcoming August report will provide additional data on U.S. trade activity during the third quarter.

DeepSeek Reportedly Plans Major Funding Round

Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek is preparing to raise at least 80 billion yuan, or approximately $12 billion, in a funding round involving Tencent and CATL, Bloomberg News reported.

DeepSeek initially targeted 50 billion yuan, according to the report, but the final amount could reach 100 billion yuan following investor demand.

Previous reports cited in the supplied material valued DeepSeek at approximately $74 billion. Potential plans for a public listing are also being monitored.

Neither the final fundraising amount nor a potential public listing is confirmed as completed in the supplied material.

FTSE 100 opens flat as Avacta raises £12.5m and Clarksons lifts its profit outlook, while Brent crude falls and sterling strengthens.

Market Overview

The FTSE 100 opened broadly flat at 10,498.06, while European markets moved higher, with the Euronext 100 up 0.03 per cent and Germany’s DAX gaining 0.86 per cent. European equities were supported by calmer French debt markets, while the UK market drew support from strength in US technology shares despite continuing geopolitical risks. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq closed higher at 27,477.31 and the S&P 500 also advanced to 7,773.95.

Commodity trading was mixed, with copper and natural gas higher while gold and Brent crude declined. Oil remained under pressure as resilient Middle Eastern exports and coordinated emergency reserve measures eased immediate supply concerns, although Gulf tensions continued to pose risks. Against sterling, the US dollar, Swiss franc, euro, Japanese yen and Australian dollar weakened, while Bitcoin also moved lower.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Up (+0.00%), 10,498.06
Euronext 100: Up (+0.03%), 1,877.16
DAX: Up (+0.86%), 25,470.47
NASDAQ: Up, 27,477.31
S&P 500: Up, 7,773.95

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In the Headlines

Oncology Funding – Avacta (LSE:AVCT)
Clinical-stage life sciences company Avacta raised £12.5 million through a placing and director-led subscription. The funding is expected to extend its cash runway into the second quarter of 2027 and support continued development of its pre|CISION oncology pipeline.

Profit Outlook Raised – Clarksons (LSE:CKN)
Shipping services group Clarksons raised its 2026 outlook after stronger-than-expected trading in August and September, with underlying pre-tax profit now expected to be at least £135 million. Increased commodity and freight market volatility supported activity across its Broking and Financial divisions.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Down (-0.01%), $1.3219
CHF: Down (-0.16%), Fr.1.1007
EUR: Down (-0.05%), €1.1790
JPY: Down (-0.16%), ¥209.134
AUD: Down (-0.03%), $1.8980
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £64,647.62

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Commodities

Copper: Up
Gold: Down
Brent Crude: Down
Natural Gas: Up

The FTSE 100 rose 0.82% on Tuesday as gains in global technology stocks coincided with continued attention on the conflict involving Iran and its impact on energy supplies.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.76%, while France’s CAC 40 was 0.48% higher. Sterling edged up 0.04% against the US dollar to $1.3224.

The gains followed a technology-led advance on Wall Street towards record levels, while investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Jefferies Expects Central Banks to Hold Rates in October

Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar said the firm expects both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged in October, with the next increases expected in December and one further increase anticipated from each central bank.

Kumar said recent commentary from central bank officials, including the Federal Reserve’s Philip Jefferson and Beth Hammack and the ECB’s Philip Lane, had “moderated” regarding the need for further increases.

Jefferies said it remains positioned in equities with a preference for technology, citing earnings, capital expenditure and liquidity, while noting that market breadth remains narrow.

In government bonds, Kumar said investors were focusing on France and the UK because of their fiscal positions. French spreads had narrowed to 136 basis points after reaching more than 150 basis points intraday. Jefferies said it was avoiding French government debt.

Iran Conflict Keeps Energy Supply in Focus

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian nominated Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabachi, who has been involved in the country’s missile programme and is subject to EU and US sanctions, as defence minister. The appointment remains subject to a parliamentary confidence vote.

An acting minister has held the position since predecessor Aziz Nasirzadeh was killed in US-Israeli attacks earlier in the conflict.

Iranian army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said the country holds a stockpile of new military equipment. He said: “New defensive and offensive equipment will be introduced at the appropriate time.”

According to the supplied material, Iranian oil exports have fallen to zero because of a US blockade.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Islamabad for talks that include Pakistan’s mediation between Iran and the US. Washington and nine allies in the Americas also issued a statement condemning what they described as Iran’s “terrorist actions” in the region.

Data from Kpler cited by the Wall Street Journal indicated crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz were running at 76% of pre-war levels, while the recovery in refined fuel flows could extend into 2027.

US President Donald Trump said US bombers had been moved from RAF Fairford following unspecified “threats”.

Elsewhere, Yemen’s government said it had retaken Mocha from the Houthis, while Turkey and Pakistan agreed to deploy forces to defend Saudi Arabia. The battlefield claims cited in the supplied material have not been independently verified.

Britain was also reported to have threatened the expulsion of 27 Israeli diplomats if Israel closes its Jerusalem consulate by 8 October.

Oil Falls While Gold Prices Are Mixed

Brent crude futures declined 0.73% to $99.59 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $88.40.

Gold futures increased 0.2% to $4,164.65 an ounce, while spot gold declined 0.06% to $4,137.96.

Informa Agrees £2.24 Billion Clarion Acquisition

In UK corporate news, Informa (LSE:INF) agreed to acquire B2B events company Clarion for an enterprise value of £2.24 billion.

The acquisition will be funded through committed financing and an equity raise of approximately £940 million.

Informa has also launched a formal review of separating its Taylor & Francis academic publishing business and expects to report the outcome alongside its full-year results in March 2027.