Category: Top Story

Wall Street looked set to open lower on Thursday as rapidly rising crude oil prices and renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran threatened to reverse Wednesday’s modest equity-market recovery.

U.S. crude futures jumped more than 3% to their highest level in nearly a month after President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against Tehran, raising concerns that the conflict could remain unresolved and continue disrupting global energy supplies.

Trump announced on Truth Social that Washington was launching “economic warfare” against Iran, describing the campaign as the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.”

He also threatened “tremendous economic consequences” for any country that “allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran.”

Iran hits back as crude oil extends rally

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the U.S. president’s comments by describing the proposed “Economic D-Day” as a “diversion from America’s own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs.”

“Doubling down on failed policies will only bring further defeat—and enmity of Iranians,” Araghchi said in a post on X. “US economic terrorism threatens global economy and sovereignty worldwide.”

The increasingly confrontational language helped send U.S. crude futures sharply higher, with investors concerned that prolonged hostilities could maintain pressure on global energy supplies.

The oil rally has also pushed Treasury yields higher again, partially unwinding Wednesday’s substantial decline after the Treasury Department announced an expansion of its long-dated debt buyback operations.

Walmart slump adds another headwind for Wall Street

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) was among the biggest premarket movers, with shares plunging more than 7% following its latest quarterly update.

Investors reacted negatively to weaker-than-expected second-quarter comparable sales growth and guidance that fell short of market expectations.

The selloff in the retail heavyweight added another source of pressure for U.S. index futures following Wednesday’s modest rebound.

The Dow gained 119.65 points, or 0.2%, in the previous session to close at 53,463.05. The Nasdaq advanced 41.38 points, or 0.2%, to 26,331.09, while the S&P 500 climbed 16.22 points, or 0.2%, to 7,707.98.

Those gains followed three consecutive sessions of declines.

Treasury intervention provides temporary relief to bond markets

Wednesday’s recovery was helped by a sharp retreat in government bond yields, particularly at the longer end of the Treasury curve.

The 30-year yield moved away from levels not seen in almost two decades after the Treasury Department announced plans to at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks involving longer-dated nominal coupon securities from September 9.

“This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants,” the Treasury said in a statement.

While the announcement initially eased pressure across bond markets, the subsequent jump in oil prices has revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated and keep borrowing costs under upward pressure.

Fed minutes underline lingering inflation concerns

Federal Reserve minutes added another cautious element to the outlook after showing that many policymakers believe interest rates may need to rise if inflation does not continue moving towards the central bank’s 2% target.

Some officials also questioned whether existing financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive to bring price pressures sustainably under control.

The Middle East conflict was specifically identified as a potential inflation risk because of its impact on energy markets and global supply chains.

“[Many] participants remarked that a protracted conflict could prolong supply chain challenges and could put upward pressures on inflation,” the Fed said.

Policymakers voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged at the July 28-29 meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan favoured a quarter-point increase.

Those supporting tighter policy argued that an earlier move could reduce the possibility of requiring a more aggressive series of rate increases later.

Gold and biotech shares lead Wednesday’s sector gains

Wednesday’s session produced substantial differences in sector performance.

Gold miners were among the strongest performers as bullion prices rallied, sending the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index 9.3% higher to a three-month closing peak.

Biotechnology stocks also advanced strongly, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index gaining 4.2%. Pharmaceutical, healthcare and housing stocks recorded sizeable increases as well.

Computer hardware, banking and semiconductor shares moved in the opposite direction, suffering notable declines.

Investors now face a combination of sharply higher energy prices, renewed Treasury yield volatility and a Federal Reserve that remains concerned about inflation, leaving Wall Street vulnerable to another risk-off session.

European equities moved broadly lower on Thursday as persistent tensions in the Middle East kept investors cautious, offsetting some support from falling U.S. bond yields after the Treasury Department significantly increased its government debt purchases.

Energy markets remained a key source of concern. Brent crude climbed more than 2% towards $94 a barrel, extending its advance into a fourth consecutive session after U.S. President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Tehran.

Trump warned of economic consequences for any country providing “any type of lifeline to Iran,” adding to fears that the confrontation could prolong disruption across global energy markets.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded by saying Trump’s “doubling down on failed policies will only bring further defeat” to the U.S.

German producer inflation accelerates in July

European markets also absorbed stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany, adding another potential challenge for the interest-rate outlook.

Figures from Destatis showed German producer prices increased 3.0% year on year in July, accelerating sharply from the 1.8% rise recorded in June.

The reading was the highest in more than three years and exceeded economists’ forecast for a 2.7% increase.

Against this backdrop, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 both declined 0.5%.

JD Sports and Hays fall after disappointing updates

Corporate developments added further pressure to European markets.

JD Sports Fashion (LSE:JD.) shares dropped sharply after the retailer reduced its fiscal 2027 profit guidance following a deeper decline in underlying second-quarter sales.

British recruitment group Hays (LSE:HAS) also suffered heavy losses after reporting a full-year pre-tax loss caused by restructuring charges and reducing its annual dividend.

Dutch insurer Aegon (EU:AGN) declined after announcing that Chief Financial Officer Duncan Russel will leave the company in April 2027.

Holmen and Skanska buck weaker European trend

Several Nordic companies moved higher despite the broader decline in European equities.

Holmen (TG:HL9C) gained after the Swedish forest products group reported second-quarter results ahead of market expectations.

Skanska (TG:SKNB) also advanced after securing a $1.2 billion contract to develop four new data centres in the southeastern United States.

The mixed corporate moves came against a generally defensive market backdrop, with geopolitical uncertainty and stronger German producer inflation outweighing the benefit of lower U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. equity futures traded modestly higher on Thursday as investors balanced relief in government bond markets against a more hawkish Federal Reserve message, another escalation in tensions with Iran and fresh concerns over America’s fiscal position. Walmart (NYSE:WMT) earnings are also in focus as markets look for clues about the resilience of U.S. consumer spending.

The session follows a rebound on Wall Street after the U.S. Treasury intervened to ease pressure on long-dated government debt, while America’s gross national debt has now crossed the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

Treasury action gives U.S. futures a lift

At 02:39 ET (06:39 GMT), Dow futures were 45 points higher, representing a gain of 0.1%. S&P 500 futures advanced 13 points, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 145 points, equivalent to 0.5%.

U.S. equities gained during Wednesday’s session as government bonds recovered from a sell-off that had driven the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level in almost 20 years.

The Treasury helped ease the pressure by announcing that it would double the size of buyback operations involving longer-dated government securities.

The announcement sent bond yields lower globally and weakened the dollar, while gold benefited from the move. The intervention followed several difficult sessions in which rising yields had weighed on equities amid mounting concerns about fiscal deficits, high oil prices and the scale of corporate investment in artificial intelligence.

Capital Economics nevertheless argued that the bond market is not currently the dominant force driving U.S. stocks, saying “U.S. equities are largely indifferent to bonds.”

“[T]he big picture is that Treasuries have played second fiddle to AI in influencing the S&P 500 in recent years. And that’s likely to remain the case for a while,” the analysts added.

Fed policymakers keep rate hikes on the table

Investors are also assessing minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which revealed greater willingness among policymakers to consider another increase in borrowing costs.

Interest rates were left unchanged at the meeting, but three of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported a quarter-point hike.

Across the full 19-member group of FOMC participants, “many” indicated that further monetary tightening would probably be justified if inflation failed to move lower.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly stressed the importance of controlling inflation. However, his suggestion that higher market interest rates since the June meeting had already tightened financial conditions without the Fed formally increasing rates created uncertainty over the likely policy path.

Some officials were concerned that investors might be pricing in a rate increase that policymakers had not committed to, while others questioned whether current financial conditions were restrictive enough to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target.

Capital Economics said the minutes showed the Fed had become “more hawkish” since June, “but, with the inflation, labor market and activity data since then all on the soft side, there is little to suggest that interest rate hikes are imminent.”

Walmart earnings offer fresh test of consumer demand

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is due to report quarterly results on Thursday, giving investors another important snapshot of U.S. household spending.

The retailer has faced pressure as higher gasoline costs and broader economic uncertainty encourage consumers to search for cheaper products, contributing to weaker comparable sales growth.

Investors will therefore be watching closely for signs that those trends have either intensified or begun to stabilise.

Walmart Connect is another major focus. The company’s advertising business expanded 44% in the quarter ended April 30, its fastest growth rate on record, as advertisers increasingly sought access to Walmart’s extensive customer data.

Continued momentum in advertising could help offset some of the pressure created by discounting and subdued retail spending.

Walmart shares have gained only slightly more than 1% this year, leaving the stock well behind the broader S&P 500.

Iran tensions add another risk for markets

Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated after President Donald Trump threatened countries that continue doing business with Iran with “TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences”.

“I am announcing the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY! This will be Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale,” Trump wrote on social media.

The president also described Iran as “hanging by a thread” following months of U.S. operations and called on American allies to participate in the pressure campaign.

Neither Washington nor Tehran currently appears to be engaged in negotiations, leaving the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz uncertain. Tanker movements through the strategically important shipping route have slowed sharply.

Brent crude has consequently risen more than 5% this week as traders price in the possibility of prolonged supply constraints. The international benchmark added another 0.5% on Thursday to trade at $92.05 a barrel, reinforcing concerns that higher energy costs could complicate the inflation outlook.

$40 trillion U.S. debt milestone raises fiscal concerns

America’s rapidly expanding debt burden is also attracting renewed market attention after gross national debt moved above $40 trillion for the first time.

Treasury figures showed total public debt outstanding at $40.047 trillion on Tuesday. The overall debt burden has roughly doubled across the presidencies of Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden.

Rising entitlement expenditure and increasingly expensive interest payments are adding to the fiscal challenge, while a series of tax reductions has weighed on government revenues.

“While White House officials pay lip service to addressing fiscal imbalances, their actions suggest a complete disregard for any type of soberness on this issue, and the other side of the aisle isn’t any better — no one in Washington seems keen on taking action,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

“The steps announced recently by Treasury to mitigate the recent advance in rates (including helping Japan with yen interventions and the expanded buybacks) are relatively minor compared to the issuance problem, as both sovereigns and corporates (due in large part to AI) hit the market with a tidal wave of debt.”

With Fed policy, government borrowing, energy prices and geopolitical tensions all competing for investors’ attention, Thursday’s session leaves markets balancing near-term support from lower Treasury yields against increasingly complex monetary and fiscal risks.

FTSE 100 opens flat as JD Sports cuts guidance, Hays holds its dividend and Brent crude edges lower amid continuing Middle East risks.

Market Overview

The FTSE 100 opened broadly unchanged at 10,743.23, down less than 0.01 per cent from its previous close, as investors continued to assess the US-Iran standoff and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The Euronext 100 was also effectively flat at 1,938.44, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.27 per cent to 26,020.00 amid caution over central bank policy and inflation risks. Overnight in the US, the Nasdaq closed higher at 26,331.09 and the S&P 500 advanced to 7,707.98.

Commodity markets were mixed, with copper and Brent crude lower, gold higher and natural gas unchanged. Oil markets remained sensitive to Middle East supply risks as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict persisted. Against sterling, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen weakened marginally, the euro was effectively unchanged and the Australian dollar strengthened slightly, while Bitcoin was down marginally.

Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Down (-0.001%), 10,743.23
Euronext 100: Up (+0.001%), 1,938.44
DAX: Down (-0.27%), 26,020.00
NASDAQ: Up, 26,331.09
S&P 500: Up, 7,707.98

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In the Headlines

Guidance cut – JD Sports Fashion (LSE:JD.)
Sportswear retailer JD Sports cut its FY27 profit guidance after weaker second-quarter trading, with softer consumer demand and footwear sales weighing particularly on North America. The downgrade puts the group’s earnings outlook in focus despite more resilient trading in the UK.

Dividend maintained – Hays (LSE:HAS)
Recruitment group Hays maintained its final dividend alongside its FY26 preliminary results, preserving its shareholder payout despite subdued recruitment conditions. The update highlights the company’s focus on capital discipline as challenging hiring markets continue to affect the sector.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Up (0.01%), 1.3601
CHF: Down (-0.01%), Fr.1.0849
EUR: Down (-0.00%), €1.165
JPY: Down (-0.01%), ¥215.233
AUD: Up (+0.01%), $1.9095
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £51,056.02

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Commodities

Copper: Down
Gold: Up
Brent Crude: Down
Natural Gas: Unchanged

European equities struggled for direction on Thursday, remaining close to their lowest levels since August 3 as hawkish signals from central banks and continuing disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf outweighed an attempted recovery in global bond markets.

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed. Further losses would put the benchmark on course for its longest run of daily declines since September 2023. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 and London’s FTSE 100 traded broadly flat.

Hawkish Fed minutes revive interest-rate concerns

Risk appetite remained subdued after investors digested minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting.

The minutes showed that US policymakers remained concerned about persistent inflationary pressures and were prepared to increase interest rates again if inflation continued to run above the central bank’s 2% target.

The message challenged recent expectations that the Fed could pause its tightening cycle in the autumn and revived concerns that borrowing costs across major economies may remain elevated for longer than markets had anticipated.

European investors are facing similar uncertainty over monetary policy. European Central Bank officials have previously warned that Eurozone inflation remaining around 3% is still too high, particularly given the possibility that renewed energy-price pressures could generate secondary inflationary effects.

Treasury intervention calms global bond sell-off

Thursday’s cautious trading followed a turbulent period in sovereign debt markets, during which borrowing costs climbed to multi-decade highs before intervention from US authorities helped stabilise conditions.

Earlier in the week, intensifying rhetoric surrounding the Middle East conflict and a rise in Brent crude above $91 a barrel triggered heavy selling across major government bond markets.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield climbed to 3.22%, its highest level since 2011, while the US 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year peak of 5.337%. The sharp increase in risk-free yields reduced the relative attractiveness of equities and encouraged investors to move away from riskier assets.

The US Department of the Treasury responded on Wednesday by unexpectedly doubling the maximum size of its liquidity-supporting buybacks for long-dated nominal debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

The intervention helped halt the surge in yields and improve conditions in the secondary bond market. However, the subsequently released hawkish Fed minutes quickly returned investor attention to the possibility of persistently high global interest rates.

Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps inflation risks elevated

Shipping data also continues to add to market uncertainty, with commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz substantially reduced as many international shipowners avoid the strategically important waterway amid security concerns surrounding the conflict with Iran.

Tanker movements remain well below historical averages, while Brent crude continues to trade near multi-week highs.

Investors are concerned that prolonged disruption to energy supplies could increase costs throughout European supply chains, reinforcing inflationary pressures at a time when economic growth is already vulnerable. Such a combination could leave regional equities exposed to further stagflation concerns.

Arcadis gains while Aegon and Novonesis move after results

Among individual stocks, Arcadis (EU:ARCAD) gained 2% after WSP Global said it would pursue a takeover offer for the company.

Aegon (EU:AGN) dropped almost 4% following the release of its first-half results.

Novonesis (TG:NZM2) moved sharply in the opposite direction, jumping 9% after its second-quarter revenue exceeded market expectations.

Focus keyphrase: European shares central bank outlook

Meta description: European shares hover near August lows as hawkish Fed signals, elevated bond yields and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz weigh on sentiment.

UK equities moved lower on Thursday as investors continued to assess developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and tensions between the US and Iran, while sentiment across wider European markets remained cautious.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.25% at 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT), while Germany’s DAX declined 0.45% and France’s CAC 40 edged 0.02% lower. Sterling strengthened slightly against the dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.05% to 1.3613.

Attention remained firmly on the Strait of Hormuz after Axios cited two unnamed US officials as saying Washington has quietly operated a shipping corridor through the strategically important waterway for several weeks. According to the report, nightly convoys travelling along the Omani coast have been transporting around 10 million barrels per day, approximately half the volume seen before the conflict, with US air cover provided following a two-week operation targeting Iranian radar capabilities.

Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Mauritanian counterpart that Islamic countries should strengthen cooperation through the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to “counter the Zionist regime’s plots,” according to Iran’s Mehr News Agency.

US President Donald Trump also addressed the Hormuz situation on Wednesday, expressing frustration that South Korea had declined to assist with securing the waterway despite obtaining “60%” of its oil from the region.

Trump separately said he expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this year, commenting that Kim “likes me” in contrast with his predecessors.

Trump increases economic pressure on Iran

Washington intensified its economic campaign against Tehran late on Wednesday, with Trump announcing what he described as the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”.

The president warned that countries supporting Iranian financial institutions, banks, airports or shipping registries could face “tremendous economic consequences.” Trump characterised the new campaign as “economic d-day.”

Araghchi responded on social media platform X, arguing that the announcement was intended to distract from economic challenges facing the US, including “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs”. He also accused Washington of “economic terrorism” and warned of consequences for the global economy and national sovereignty.

US Treasury buybacks offer support to risk sentiment

Investors were also digesting a US Treasury decision to at least double buyback operations at the longer end of the yield curve.

According to Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar, the minimum size of operations covering the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year segments will increase to $4 billion from $2 billion previously.

“We view yesterday’s announcement as a signal that Bessent is conscious of the long end yields and is ready to take steps to control the long end,” Kumar said in a note.

The announcement contributed to a six-basis-point decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield and initially supported gold and cryptocurrency markets as the dollar weakened.

Kumar said Jefferies remained “long gold” and continued “to see value over the medium term.” He also described Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes as “less hawkish than feared,” noting that most policymakers expected inflation to moderate during the remainder of the year.

Oil rises as Hormuz uncertainty continues

Oil prices strengthened as traders monitored developments surrounding the key Middle Eastern shipping route. Brent crude advanced 1.4% to $92.91 a barrel, while WTI gained 1.33% to $85.52.

Gold prices moved in the opposite direction during Thursday’s trading. December futures slipped 0.03% to $4,544.65, while spot gold declined 0.78% to $4,487.88 an ounce.

UK company news

Hays (LSE:HAS) cut its full-year dividend by 65% and announced plans to withdraw from seven markets as subdued hiring conditions continued to weigh on permanent recruitment fees.

JD Sports (LSE:JD.) lowered its FY26/27 profit expectations after the decline in second-quarter sales accelerated, with weakness in North America proving a particular drag on performance.

Focus keyphrase: FTSE 100 US-Iran Hormuz tensions

Meta description: The FTSE 100 falls as investors monitor the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices rise and UK corporate updates remain in focus.