Blog

U.S. stock futures traded slightly higher on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to another week of corporate earnings and a possible slowdown in key economic data releases amid the ongoing government shutdown. The extended closure — now lasting more than a month — threatens to delay another crucial reading on U.S. employment. Meanwhile, investors are watching for Palantir Technologies’ latest earnings and comments from President Donald Trump on restricting exports of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips.

Futures Edge Higher

U.S. equity futures hovered near flat levels early Monday as investors weighed the market outlook following an eventful week of trading.

By 03:08 ET, Dow futures were little changed, S&P 500 futures were up 3 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 33 points (0.1%).

Wall Street ended last week on a positive note, with the major indexes logging gains after a flurry of tech earnings, central bank rate decisions, and direct trade talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders.

A surge in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares, following stronger-than-expected quarterly results, helped push U.S. markets higher, extending their longest monthly winning streak in years. Those gains offset pressure from Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) warning about supply chain constraints ahead of the holiday season and cautionary comments from Federal Reserve officials that dampened hopes for more rate cuts before the end of 2025.

Shutdown Threatens Key Labor Data

Focus now shifts to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which is close to becoming the longest in the country’s history.

The impasse has left investors and policymakers with limited visibility on the economy, as several critical data reports have been delayed. While inflation data for September was released last month, major employment indicators have yet to be published.

The situation could persist this week, potentially delaying the nonfarm payrolls report, a key measure of the U.S. labor market usually released on the first Friday of each month. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is also expected to be postponed.

According to analysts at Vital Knowledge, “in some ways, people are feeling even more confused than before,” noting that the shutdown has partially deprived markets of a clear guide for the final stretch of the year.

The Wall Street Journal reported late last week that lawmakers in Washington were making progress toward a deal to reopen the government, though President Donald Trump’s insistence that Republican senators bypass Democrats has cast uncertainty over negotiations.

Palantir to Report After the Bell

All eyes are on Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), which is set to announce quarterly results after markets close Monday.

In August, the data analytics and defense software firm raised its full-year revenue outlook for the second time in 2025, citing robust demand for its AI-driven services from both corporate and government clients.

A renewed focus by the Trump administration on strengthening national security, along with the Pentagon’s shift toward “non-traditional” and commercial suppliers, has further supported Palantir’s growth prospects.

The company’s shares have more than doubled this year as investors bet it will remain a key player in the artificial intelligence wave and a beneficiary of higher U.S. defense tech spending.

According to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, Palantir is expected to post a third-quarter operating profit of $255.6 million on revenue of $1.09 billion.

Trump Comments on Nvidia Chip Exports

Elsewhere, President Donald Trump said that Nvidia’s most advanced artificial intelligence processors would be restricted to U.S. buyers only, excluding customers in China and other countries.

Speaking in an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes and during remarks aboard Air Force One, Trump stated that Nvidia’s powerful Blackwell chips should remain in American hands:
“We don’t give the Blackwell to other people,” he said.

His comments came after noting that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not discuss chip access during their high-profile meeting in South Korea last week — despite Trump previously suggesting the topic might arise.

The president’s latest stance indicates a potential move toward even tighter export controls on high-end U.S.-made AI technology.

Oil Prices Extend Gains After OPEC+ Decision

Crude prices climbed Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it will pause production increases during the first quarter of next year, helping ease fears of an oversupplied market.

Brent futures rose 0.7% to $65.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.7% to $61.41.

The group of oil producers — which includes OPEC and its allies — agreed Sunday to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with previous months. However, it will pause additional increases through the first quarter of 2026, citing concerns over a potential glut and softer demand during the winter.

OPEC+ noted that January through March typically represents the weakest period for global oil consumption.

European markets opened the week on a cautious note Monday, with traders awaiting fresh regional manufacturing data for insight into the sector’s health.

By 08:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX edged up 0.1%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%.

Manufacturing Data in Focus

Market sentiment was slightly dented early Monday after private sector figures showed China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace than expected in October, reflecting cooling prices and a weaker economic outlook in the world’s second-largest economy.

Still, the reading pointed to modest growth in contrast with last week’s official government PMI, which indicated a contraction.

Investors now await similar purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from major European economies — including Germany, France, and the eurozone as a whole — later in the session, followed by comparable reports from the United States.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged last week for a third consecutive meeting, with policymakers saying policy was in a “good place.” The ECB’s next and final meeting of the year is set for December, and economists broadly expect the bank to keep rates steady well into 2026.

Sweden’s Riksbank will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday.

European Markets Outperformed in October

European equities outpaced U.S. markets last month, led by gains in the U.K., France, and Spain, according to Barclays in a note published Monday.

The bank said solid third-quarter earnings and renewed investor appetite lifted regional markets despite continued global uncertainty.

Globally, equities “continued to climb the wall of worries making new highs again in October,” Barclays noted, adding that concerns about “rising credit defaults in the U.S. and renewed U.S.-China trade spat pushed X-asset volatility higher,” though the effect was short-lived.

The rally, the bank said, was driven by “resilient Q3 earnings” and “AI tailwinds,” which “boosted them to the highs.”

Corporate Updates: Ryanair, PostNL, and Heineken

Earnings activity was relatively light on Monday, though several key reports are expected later this week.

Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) reported a 42% jump in first-half profit but cautioned that tougher year-over-year fare comparisons and geopolitical risks could weigh on results in the second half.

PostNL (EU:PNL) posted a wider operating loss for the third quarter as higher costs and falling mail volumes offset modest parcel growth, keeping pressure on margins despite a small increase in revenue.

Heineken (EU:HEIA) unveiled a new roadmap to 2030, pledging stronger sales and cost savings of up to €500 million annually by focusing on 17 key markets and a select group of global brands.

Oil Prices Climb as OPEC+ Pauses Output Increases

Crude prices advanced Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it will hold off on production hikes in the first quarter of next year, easing market fears of a potential supply glut.

Brent futures rose 0.7% to $65.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.7% to $61.41.

The oil producers’ alliance — which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners — agreed Sunday to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with the pace set for October and November.

While the move was widely expected, the group also confirmed it will pause output increases through the first quarter of 2026, citing worries about a supply surplus and weaker demand during the typically slower winter months.

OPEC+ noted that January through March tends to be the weakest period for global oil consumption.

The U.S. dollar moved slightly higher on Monday, hovering near a three-month peak as investors awaited fresh data to assess the strength of the U.S. economy.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index — which measures the greenback’s performance against six major currencies — was up 0.1% at 99.732, close to its strongest level since August.

Focus Turns to Private Sector Indicators

The dollar found support after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely anticipated, but cast doubt on the likelihood of another reduction before year-end.

As a result, markets have scaled back expectations for a December rate cut, now pricing in about a 68% chance of another move.

With the ongoing U.S. government shutdown expected to delay the release of key labor data — including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and job openings earlier in the week — investors are turning their attention to privately sourced economic indicators.

“Today sees the ISM manufacturing release for November, which contains the employment component,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “It’s not clear if we will see the JOLTS job opening data tomorrow, but on Wednesday, the monthly ADP jobs release will be a big market mover – and probably the biggest chance of the week for the dollar bear trend to restart.”

Euro Near Three-Month Low

In Europe, the euro weakened, with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1511, hovering near a three-month low. Data showed that Germany’s manufacturing sector continued to struggle in October, while France’s output also remained subdued in the early part of the fourth quarter.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third consecutive meeting last week, signaling that policy was in a “good place” as downside risks to growth appear to ease.

“We do get a heavy slate of European Central Bank speakers,” said ING. “ECB rhetoric looks unlikely to help EUR/USD, however. The debate leans more towards whether eurozone inflation undershoots and the ECB requires another rate cut.”

Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3123 ahead of this week’s Bank of England policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. The pound also faced pressure from political uncertainty surrounding Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who is set to deliver the government’s budget later this month.

Asia: Yen and Aussie in Focus

In Asia, USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 154.20, keeping the yen near its weakest level since early February. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week, as expected, though Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a rate hike could be on the table depending on future wage growth trends.

The USD/CNY pair traded slightly higher at 7.1192 after touching a one-year low last week. Private purchasing managers index data showed China’s manufacturing sector expanded more slowly than forecast in October, although it remained in growth territory — a contrast to the government’s PMI data released earlier, which indicated contraction.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair rose 0.1% to 0.6552, with attention turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged but may strike a more hawkish tone following hotter-than-expected inflation data in the third quarter.

Oil prices rose on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would suspend planned output hikes during the first quarter of next year, easing market concerns over a potential supply surplus. Gains, however, were limited by weaker-than-expected manufacturing data across Asia.

By 07:22 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.43%, at $65.05 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.41%, to $61.23 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, confirmed on Sunday that it will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December — consistent with levels set for October and November.

“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.

According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Research at ING, the decision signals OPEC+’s recognition of “the large surplus that the market faces, particularly through early next year.” He added, “Obviously, still plenty of uncertainty over the scale of the surplus, which will be dependent on how disruptive U.S. sanctions will be to Russian oil flows.”

Helima Croft, Head of Commodities Strategy at RBC Capital, also pointed to Russia as “a key supply wild card” following U.S. sanctions on major producers Rosneft and Lukoil, and amid ongoing attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure related to the war in Ukraine. “There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness,” she said.

Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Tuapse oil terminal, one of Russia’s main Black Sea export hubs, sparking a fire and damaging at least one vessel.

Both Brent and WTI posted losses of more than 2% in October, marking their third straight monthly decline. Prices hit a five-month low on October 20 amid concerns about oversupply and the potential economic drag from U.S. tariffs.

A Reuters poll showed analysts keeping oil price forecasts largely steady, as increased OPEC+ output and subdued demand continue to offset geopolitical supply risks. Estimates for market oversupply ranged widely, from 190,000 barrels per day to as much as 3 million bpd.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that American crude output rose by 86,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 13.8 million bpd.

Asian economies — the world’s largest consumers of oil — continued to struggle in October, with business surveys pointing to soft demand and U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump weighing on factory activity across the region.

On Friday, Trump denied reports that he was considering military strikes inside OPEC member Venezuela amid speculation that Washington might broaden its operations targeting drug trafficking in the country.

Gold prices ticked up slightly in Asian trading on Monday, though the precious metal remained under pressure following two straight weeks of losses. Uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and easing global trade tensions have both weighed on investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,017.13 an ounce by 01:19 ET (06:19 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 0.8% to $4,027.55. Despite the modest rebound, gold fell more than 2% last week—its second consecutive weekly decline—though it still posted a 4% gain for October overall.

Fed Caution and Trade Optimism Pressure Bullion

The metal’s softness comes despite the Fed’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut, a move that typically supports non-yielding assets like gold. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said additional rate cuts were “not a foregone conclusion,” dampening investor optimism. His remarks, echoed by other central bank officials, have led markets to scale back expectations for another cut in December, boosting the U.S. dollar and exerting downward pressure on bullion.

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near three-month highs early Monday, making gold more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.

Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions also limited demand for safe-haven assets. A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan last week ended with both leaders agreeing to reduce trade barriers. The discussions reportedly included a preliminary framework for U.S. tariff reductions and Chinese commitments to increase imports of American goods.

While the talks stopped short of a full trade deal, the detente helped calm markets after months of escalating friction between the world’s two largest economies, further curbing gold’s appeal.

Other Precious Metals Advance; Copper Slips on Weak China Data

Elsewhere in the metals market, silver futures rose 1.1% to $48.705 per ounce, and platinum futures jumped 1.8% to $1,603.60 per ounce. Industrial metals were mixed, with benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange steady at $10,903.20 a ton, while U.S. copper futures edged down 0.1% to $5.11 a pound.

A private survey released Monday showed that China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in October, as weaker prices and a softening economic outlook continued to weigh on factory activity.

UK stocks opened the week on a positive note Monday, with the FTSE 100 edging higher while the pound continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar. As of 08:04 GMT, the blue-chip index was up 0.2%, while sterling slipped 0.2% to trade just above $1.31.

Across Europe, markets were mixed — Germany’s DAX gained 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.2%.

UK Market Highlights:

• Ryanair Holdings PLC (LSE:0RYA) reported a 42% rise in first-half profit to €2.54 billion, buoyed by strong summer demand. Second-quarter profit after tax climbed 20% to €1.72 billion from €1.43 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose 13% to €9.82 billion on a 3% increase in passenger traffic to 119 million. The airline noted a 13% rise in average fares to €58 but cautioned that tougher comparisons and geopolitical risks could weigh on second-half results.
• Optima Health PLC (LSE:OPT) posted first-half fiscal 2026 revenue of roughly £59 million, up 17% year over year from £50.8 million. The company reaffirmed that it is on track to meet consensus estimates, targeting full-year revenue of around £125.4 million.
• Empiric Student Property PLC (LSE:ESP) said it had reached 89% occupancy for the 2025/26 academic year, with like-for-like rental growth of 4.5%. The company noted slower booking activity since early September, citing lower Chinese student numbers and supply-demand imbalances in key cities such as Nottingham, Sheffield, and Glasgow — making its 97% occupancy target difficult to achieve.
• BP PLC (LSE:BP.) announced a $1.5 billion deal to sell minority stakes in its U.S. onshore midstream assets to private investor Sixth Street. The assets include BP’s pipelines and processing facilities in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins — Grand Slam, Bingo, Checkmate, and Crossroads — which link wells to third-party pipeline systems.

The mixed tone in Europe came as investors assessed a busy week ahead for corporate earnings and central bank commentary, while currency traders watched the pound’s continued weakness following last week’s decline.

Optima Health (LSE:OPT) reported first-half fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately £59 million, up 17% from £50.8 million in the same period a year earlier. The company said it remains on track to meet market expectations for the full year, with analysts forecasting total revenue of around £125.4 million.

During the first half, Optima completed two strategic acquisitions to expand its operations and strengthen its service portfolio. In April, the company acquired Cognate Health for €9 million, marking its entry into Ireland and extending its international footprint. The business, now rebranded as Optima Health Ireland, operates roughly 30 clinic sites and is expected to contribute between £6 million and £7 million in annualized revenue.

In May 2025, Optima also completed the £15,000 acquisition of Care First, which added Employee Assistance Program (EAP) capabilities to its platform, contributing an estimated £3.7 million in yearly revenue.

New business wins for the period totaled approximately £1.9 million on an annualized basis, down from £3.6 million in the first half of fiscal 2025. The company is currently mobilizing its £210 million contract to provide medical assessment services for the UK Armed Forces, which began in April 2025. Full service delivery is expected to commence by early 2027.

Optima reported a solid financial position, with net debt of about £4.7 million and cash reserves of £8.3 million as of the end of the reporting period.

BP Plc (LSE:BP.) traded higher on Monday after revealing a $1.5 billion agreement to divest minority stakes in its U.S. midstream operations to private investment firm Sixth Street — a deal analysts say will reduce leverage slightly and help unlock balance sheet value.

The transaction covers BP’s onshore pipeline and processing assets in the Eagle Ford and Permian basins. This includes four key central facilities in the Permian — Grand Slam, Bingo, Checkmate, and Crossroads — which link production sites to third-party pipeline networks.

The sale will take place in two tranches: roughly $1 billion will be paid at signing, with the balance expected before year-end, pending regulatory approval.

Once completed, BP’s ownership in the Permian midstream system will fall from 100% to 51%, and its stake in the Eagle Ford assets will decline from 75% to 25%. Sixth Street will hold the remaining interests, though BP will continue to operate all assets.

BP expects the deal to boost non-controlling interests on its balance sheet and generate an annual income statement benefit of between $100 million and $200 million. The divestment also advances BP’s goal of securing $20 billion in asset sales by the end of 2027, a target laid out during its February Capital Markets Update.

UBS called the transaction a modest positive, citing the valuation uplift and an implied 1.1% reduction in leverage. The bank noted the estimated earnings contribution values the deal at around 10x earnings — broadly in line with BP’s own fiscal 2026 multiple and slightly below the 10x to 15x range typical for independent operators. UBS also anticipates the full payout to be completed before year-end.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC acted as financial adviser to BP, while Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP served as lead legal counsel.

Frasers Group Plc (LSE:FRAS) came under pressure after RBC Capital Markets cut its rating on the stock to “sector perform” from “outperform,” cautioning that the retailer’s strong share price rally has left “less to play for on valuation.” Shares slipped 1.5% in early trading at 08:22 GMT.

Despite the downgrade, RBC lifted its price target to 800p from 775p, reflecting an updated valuation outlook. Frasers shares last closed at 729p, up about 24% since the start of the year.

In a research note dated Monday, RBC analysts led by Richard Chamberlain said Frasers remains “one of the more diverse and resilient retailers in the sector,” but warned that “its valuation is likely to continue to be constrained by a lack of liquidity.” The analysts also removed the firm’s “Speculative Risk” designation, citing Frasers’ “diversity and robust balance sheet.”

RBC credited the company — which owns Sports Direct, Flannels, and House of Fraser — for maintaining a strong competitive position but noted that “its relative complexity and lack of liquidity may continue to weigh on its valuation.” The analysts added, “Following a strong run in the share price, we think there is now less valuation upside compared to some other retailers in the sector, e.g., Dunelm.”

The brokerage forecasts adjusted profit before tax of £573 million for FY26, up 2% year on year, and adjusted earnings per share of 99.5p, compared with 98.1p in FY25. Revenue is projected to rise 10% to £5.42 billion in FY26 and £5.60 billion in FY27. Frasers has guided for “a relatively stable outcome for PBT for FY26 as it is battling to offset £50mn of UK cost headwinds.”

RBC’s new 800p price target is derived from a discounted cash flow valuation of £7.60 per share and a sum-of-the-parts analysis of £8.40 per share, using a 9% weighted average cost of capital and a 1% terminal growth rate. The analysts’ downside scenario assumes a share price of 450p, while an upside case of 1,050p would require stronger revenue and margin performance.

While the firm acknowledged Frasers’ solid fundamentals, it said valuation upside has narrowed as the shares now trade around 7.5x CY26e EV/EBIT, toward the lower end of their historical range. “We mark to market our SOTP and roll forward our DCF, including stakes in other retailers, and come to an implied share price of c.800p,” RBC said.

Frasers continues to invest in its five core own brands — Everlast, Jack Wills, USA Pro, Slazenger, and Karrimor — which together generate more than half of its own-brand sales. The group is also expanding its Flannels luxury arm and introducing AI-driven retail and media tools to improve operational efficiency and profitability.

RBC concluded that Frasers’ diversified portfolio and strong balance sheet offer resilience, but recent share price gains have largely priced in the near-term potential. “There is now less valuation upside,” the analysts wrote, signaling a pause in momentum after a year of strong performance.

Brave Bison (LSE:BBSN) has submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire M&C Saatchi Performance for £50 million, as part of its strategy to create one of the largest independent performance marketing businesses outside the United States. The proposed deal would integrate M&C Saatchi Performance with Brave Bison’s existing operations, expanding its reach across key markets in the UK and Asia-Pacific.

If completed, the acquisition is expected to enhance Brave Bison’s scale and profitability, potentially boosting adjusted EBITDA by more than 80%. The transaction would be financed through a combination of a new bank facility and a share placement. However, the company emphasized that there is currently no certainty that the deal will proceed.

Brave Bison’s financial outlook remains strong, underpinned by solid profitability, a robust balance sheet, and stable valuation metrics. While technical indicators show limited momentum, the company’s disciplined growth strategy and acquisition ambitions support a broadly positive market view.

More about Brave Bison

Brave Bison is a global marketing and technology company partnering with major international brands across eight countries, including the UK, India, Australia, and Egypt. The group operates through two main divisions — Digital Services and Digital Content.

The Digital Services division provides expertise in performance media, social and influencer marketing, and strategic insights, working with clients such as New Balance, Primark, and Google. The Digital Content division focuses on monetizing digital media through advertising and education, including the company’s own media network and the MiniMBA training platform for marketing professionals.