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What was supposed to be a quick sprint is turning into a marathon. Despite ongoing talks, we’re already in week five of the U.S. “special operation” against Iran, and activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels.

Thanks to TACO, markets haven’t panicked yet, but it’s fair to say they’re far from calm. Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 index has dropped nearly 8%, XAUUSD and XAGUSD remain under pressure, while yields on 30-year Treasury bonds have climbed to around 5%, driven by inflation fears linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

And the worst may still be ahead. 

If the U.S. launches ground operations against Iran, the conflict could escalate further, with the Houthis potentially stepping in to disrupt key routes in the Red Sea. That would put vital energy supplies beyond the Strait of Hormuz at risk and add more pressure to already fragile global supply chains.

In the meantime, the macro backdrop is starting to crack. March data showed a synchronized slowdown in business activity across the U.S., Europe, Australia, Japan, and India, according to S&P Global.

At the same time, cost inflation is picking up, raising the risk of stagflation. This means that while central banks will likely respond by tightening policy, they’ll do so carefully, aware of the growing downside risks.

Even if an agreement between Iran and the U.S. is eventually reached, the impact on growth and inflation is already being felt, and central banks will have to factor that in.

So, while markets might rally on news of a resolution, the negative effects won’t disappear overnight. Jumping fully into a “risk-on” mode immediately may not be the best move. That said, gold — which has struggled in recent weeks due to rate hike fears — could be one of the assets to benefit.

Wise Plc (LSE:WISE) has introduced everyday bank accounts for customers in the United Kingdom, offering a variable interest rate of 3.26% on account balances along with direct debit functionality for recurring payments, the London-based payments company said on Monday.

The fintech group, which operates in the UK under an electronic-money license that permits payment services but not lending, is broadening its digital banking offering in a competitive market where rivals Monzo Bank Ltd. counts about 15 million personal and business users and Revolut Ltd. has around 13 million customers in the country.

With the new accounts, customers will be able to store funds and earn interest, expanding Wise’s platform beyond its existing capabilities that allow users to hold, transfer and spend money in up to 40 currencies internationally using the mid-market exchange rate.

“This is also what is very important to us: that our customers are not only spending but also holding and growing money with us,” Chief Finance Officer Emmanuel Thomassin said.

To promote the launch and drive sign-ups, Wise is opening a temporary physical branch on London’s Oxford Street that will operate for two weeks.

The company reported cross-border transaction volume of £47.4 billion in the quarter ended December 31, representing a 25% increase from a year earlier. Wise said its global active customer base reached 15.6 million in fiscal 2025, while total customer balances stood at £27.5 billion at the end of last year.

According to Thomassin, more customers are moving to Wise from traditional tier-one banks to benefit from faster services, including payments that can be completed in under 20 seconds.

Shares of CVS Group Plc (LSE:CVSG) declined about 2.6% on Monday after the company revealed that Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairman plans to step down for personal reasons.

Fairman, who joined the veterinary services provider in 2018 as chief financial officer and was promoted to CEO in 2019, will remain in his role until a replacement is appointed in order to facilitate a smooth leadership transition. The board said it will begin a formal search process to identify the next chief executive for the UK-listed company.

During Fairman’s tenure, CVS expanded its operations into Australia and successfully navigated the review process with the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority. The company also transitioned its listing to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and was later included in the FTSE 250 index.

Over this period, CVS grew to roughly 9,000 employees, including about 2,500 veterinarians and 3,300 veterinary nurses and patient care assistants working across approximately 475 clinics. The group also nearly tripled its EBITDA during Fairman’s leadership.

Chair David Wilton said that under Fairman’s guidance the company strengthened its focus on clinical excellence and reinforced its reputation as a preferred employer in the veterinary sector.

Fairman stated that he remains committed to supporting the company during the transition and ensuring stability as the leadership change takes place. He added that with clarity following the CMA process, continued expansion in Australia, and renewed acquisition opportunities in the UK, the company’s outlook remains encouraging.

Aluminium prices climbed sharply on Monday as traders grew increasingly concerned about potential supply disruptions after Iranian attacks over the weekend struck two major aluminium producers in the Middle East.

The benchmark three-month aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.85% to $3,423 per metric ton by 0718 GMT. Earlier in the session it reached $3,492, its highest level since March 19 and close to the four-year peak of $3,546.50.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded aluminium contract settled 3.43% higher at 24,725 yuan ($3,578.82) per ton. During the session it had climbed as much as 3.91% to 24,840 yuan, also marking its highest level since March 19.

Aluminium Bahrain, which operates the world’s largest aluminium smelter on a single site, said on Sunday it was evaluating the impact of the Iranian strikes. Emirates Global Aluminium reported that its facility suffered “significant damage”.

Concerns over potential supply disruptions have intensified since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Producers in the Gulf region—responsible for roughly 9% of global aluminium output—have been unable to transport shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier this month Alba began shutting down smelting lines accounting for about 19% of its capacity. Traders said that if the damage to facilities proves severe, additional production cuts may follow and could take time to reverse.

“The latest attacks increase the probability of a prolonged disruption scenario, where supply losses could persist even if geopolitical tensions ease, reinforcing upside risks to prices,” analysts at ING Economics said.

Elsewhere, base metals generally moved higher as U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly said that Washington and Tehran were holding discussions aimed at ending the conflict, even as additional American troops arrived in the Middle East and Iranian officials warned they would not accept humiliation.

Oil prices also advanced, with Brent crude on track to record a monthly surge of more than 60%.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper was the only metal to fall, slipping 0.02%. Zinc rose 1.44%, lead gained 0.42%, nickel increased 0.75%, and tin climbed 1.19%.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper edged up 0.06%, zinc advanced 1.23%, lead rose 0.12%, nickel added 0.47%, and tin surged 4.20%.

Gold prices posted modest gains during Asian trading on Monday following a highly volatile week, as investors continued to monitor the possibility of further escalation in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,509.51 an ounce by 23:36 ET (03:36 GMT), while gold futures also advanced 0.4% to $4,537.40 an ounce. Last week, spot gold briefly dropped to around $4,000 per ounce before rebounding to near $4,500 by Friday.

Among other precious metals, spot silver declined 0.9% to $69.0915 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.8% to $1,898.73 per ounce.

Gold rebound appears technical, macro headwinds remain — OCBC

Analysts at OCBC said the recovery in gold prices from last week’s lows appears to be mainly technical, particularly after the metal had fallen by as much as 20% since the start of the Iran conflict.

They noted that bearish momentum has begun to ease somewhat, with gold’s relative strength index climbing back out of oversold territory.

However, they cautioned that it remains uncertain whether the rebound can be sustained, pointing to key resistance levels for spot gold at $4,624, $4,670 and $4,850 per ounce.

“A more durable recovery would likely require prices to reclaim and hold above these levels. Failing which, gold may continue to trade on a softer footing,” OCBC analysts said.

They also warned that elevated energy prices could keep inflation pressures high, potentially pushing Treasury yields upward and “creating a more challenging environment for gold in the interim.”

Iran war escalation in focus as Houthis attack Israel

Markets remained wary of the risk of further escalation in the Iran conflict after the Iran-backed Houthi group based in Yemen launched attacks against Israel over the weekend. The Houthis could open another front in the war given their ability to strike targets in the Red Sea.

Iran said it was ready for the possibility of a U.S. ground invasion, particularly after reports late last week indicated that Washington was mobilizing thousands of troops toward the Middle East.

President Donald Trump told reporters that negotiations with Iran were progressing well and suggested that an agreement might be close. However, he did not offer a clear timeline and warned that further strikes on Tehran remained a possibility.

Last week, Trump extended the deadline for potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure until early April.

Iran has largely rejected the idea of direct negotiations with the United States since the conflict began in late February.

Oil prices rallied on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi movement carried out attacks on Israel over the weekend, fueling concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could expand further.

Persistent hostilities involving the U.S., Israel and Iran also signaled little sign of easing tensions. Tehran said it was ready to confront a potential U.S. ground invasion as Washington increased its military presence across the region.

Energy markets largely ignored optimistic remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding ongoing negotiations with Iran.

By 00:43 ET (04:43 GMT), Brent crude futures had climbed 2.7% to $115.55 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.8% to $101.41 per barrel. Earlier in the session, Brent had spiked as high as $116.43 per barrel.

Houthi strikes raise risk of a new front in Iran war

The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen said on Sunday it had launched a volley of missiles at Israel and warned that additional attacks could follow.

Their entry into the conflict heightened fears of a broader escalation, given the group’s ability to target ships traveling through the Red Sea.

“The Houthis’ weekend involvement and the arrival of additional US troops underscore the conflict’s widening scope,” analysts at OCBC wrote in a research note.

“With little prospect of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, our baseline remains for Brent to stay around USD100/bbl through mid‐year before gradually easing in 2H26.”

Israeli officials said their forces had struck targets in Iran’s capital over the weekend, while the United States confirmed that 3,500 troops had been deployed to the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli.

Oil prices had already logged major gains throughout March, with Brent climbing nearly 60% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has significantly disrupted global supply flows.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping corridor through which about 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes.

Trump says Iran talks going well, suggests ceasefire may come soon

Oil prices continued rising even after Trump said late Sunday that negotiations with Iran were underway and that a potential deal might be close.

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, but it’s possible we won’t… I do see a deal with Iran, could be soon,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The president did not offer a clear timetable for a possible agreement, but described Iran’s new leadership as “very reasonable.”

Trump also claimed that Iran had allowed 20 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz as a concession to Washington. Reports over the weekend indicated that 20 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers were permitted to pass through the strait.

Pakistan said it would be willing to host talks between the United States and Iran after Washington proposed a ceasefire and urged negotiations.

However, Iranian officials have largely dismissed the possibility of direct talks with the United States and over the weekend accused Washington of secretly preparing a ground invasion.

Separately, Trump told the Financial Times that he would consider taking control of Iran’s oil resources, while a Wall Street Journal report said the U.S. was weighing the possibility of seizing Iran’s uranium. Both scenarios could involve American troops entering Iran and would represent a major escalation in the conflict.