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Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish view on gold, sticking with its forecast for prices to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by year-end as the bank lifted its expectations for central bank demand and projected stronger official-sector buying through 2026.

The Wall Street bank revised its proprietary model tracking central bank gold purchases after determining that it had been consistently undercounting demand since August 2025. Under the updated calculations, its 12-month moving average estimate climbed to 50 tonnes per month in March, up from 29 tonnes previously.

The revised data suggest central banks acquired 66 tonnes of gold in January, compared with an earlier estimate of only 12 tonnes.

Goldman said the change was prompted by a widening disconnect between falling inventories in London vaults and official U.K. trade statistics. Although bullion outflows from London storage facilities continued to rise, British export figures no longer appeared to fully account for those movements, implying that some sovereign transactions were taking place outside recorded trade flows.

“We therefore adjust our nowcast by adding the discrepancy between London vault outflows and UK net exports as unrecorded sovereign gold flows,” Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note.

The bank now expects central bank purchases to average 60 tonnes per month throughout 2026, citing survey results that showed “strong underlying interest in gold.” Goldman added that geopolitical developments “are likely to reinforce diversification over time — both for central banks and private investors.”

Still, the strategists cautioned that gold could face short-term pressure during periods of market stress. “Gold’s high liquidity makes it a natural source of cash if private investors face liquidity needs,” they wrote, warning that equity market weakness tied to higher interest rates or slowing growth could trigger temporary selling.

Goldman’s forecasting model relies heavily on U.K. customs data because London’s over-the-counter gold market remains the main hub for sovereign bullion transactions. With minimal domestic production in the U.K., all gold traded there must first be imported before being stored or exported, making trade flows an effective proxy for tracking the final destination of global gold demand.

Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel said his central forecast places the S&P 500 at 7,750 by the end of 2026, while also assigning a 30% likelihood to a more optimistic scenario in which the benchmark index rallies to 9,000 on the back of AI-related momentum in technology, communications and consumer-focused companies.

Writing in a note to clients on Monday, Emanuel argued that investors are navigating an environment shaped by both a structural technology boom and major geopolitical change, creating a wider range of potential outcomes than conventional market models typically capture.

He compared the current backdrop to earlier transformative periods, writing: “The Pandemic changed everything. Warlike stimulus, surging M2, and a productivity shock collide with an ‘AI Revolution’ – reminiscent of the 1920s and 1990s.”

Emanuel believes these forces could ultimately lift productivity growth to 3% by the end of the decade.

Evercore ISI said investors may benefit from long-term call positions tied to what it called the “AI Class of 2026” companies as well as the QQQ ETF, citing the possibility of “seemingly unimaginable” upside potential.

At the same time, the firm recommended a collar strategy using the SPY ETF to help manage shorter-term risks related to rising oil prices and interest rate fluctuations.

Despite the bullish longer-term outlook, Emanuel stressed that artificial intelligence remains constrained and probabilistic in nature. According to Evercore ISI, large language models often demonstrate a “Narrow Consensus” bias by clustering around mainstream expectations and failing to adequately capture tail-risk scenarios.

Emanuel added that durable competitive advantages are more likely to come from specialized domain expertise and ownership of integrated workflows than from AI technology by itself.

He also warned that prediction markets tend to mirror prevailing investor sentiment rather than reliably forecasting future outcomes, limiting their usefulness for evaluating long-duration or highly skewed scenarios.

Firm Pushes Fed Rate Cut Expectations Into 2027

Wolfe Research strategist Stephanie Roth has become more cautious on risk assets, saying the current divergence between rising bond yields and relatively stable equity markets may not be sustainable for much longer.

In a weekend research note, Roth said the firm has revised its Federal Reserve outlook and now expects any potential rate cuts to be delayed until the second half of 2027.

She argued that markets are increasingly sending conflicting signals, with bond investors pricing in a prolonged period of elevated inflation while equities continue to reflect optimism about the economic outlook.

According to Roth, “something eventually has to give.”

Three Scenarios Could Bring Yields Lower

Wolfe outlined three possible developments that could ease upward pressure on yields: slowing economic growth, a meaningful decline in equities that sparks broader risk aversion, or President Donald Trump ultimately deciding to scale back tensions with Iran.

Still, the firm warned that none of those outcomes would likely provide a favorable backdrop for markets.

Wolfe believes the third scenario has probably not yet occurred, while the first two would likely damage investor sentiment toward risk assets.

“Our bias is that rates likely continue repricing higher until either growth weakens, equities begin to crack more materially, or Trump reaches his pain threshold and takes a deal with Iran,” Roth commented.

Inflation Concerns Continue to Intensify

Roth said inflation expectations continue to move higher as markets respond to the Iran conflict, ongoing artificial intelligence investment and stronger demand tied to memory-related technology spending.

In Wolfe’s view, the Federal Reserve remains “a long way from being able to calm markets.”

Bond Market Weakness Spreads Globally

The latest selloff in global bonds accelerated on Friday after stronger-than-expected Japanese producer price data renewed concerns over persistent inflation pressures.

The move later spread to the U.K., where political uncertainty also weighed on sentiment, before extending into broader fixed-income markets worldwide.

Treasury yields rose by as much as 12 basis points, with some maturities reaching recent highs.

Fed Officials Strike More Hawkish Tone

Roth said Federal Reserve policymakers are becoming increasingly focused on inflation risks.

“Fed officials appeared increasingly concerned about the outlook. Among voting members, the mix skews slightly dovish, but even then the messaging has converged to inflation upside risks,” stated Roth. “Regional presidents have led the way in voicing their inflation worries, but a few governors, including Michael Barr and Chris Waller, have begun striking a similar tone.”

Corporate earnings continue driving equity markets higher

Global stock markets are holding near record levels despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and mounting concerns over slowing growth and persistent inflation, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a note led by strategist Peter Oppenheimer, the bank argued that strong corporate earnings remain the primary force supporting equities.

“earnings growth is robust,” Goldman wrote, pointing to projected nominal global GDP growth of 5.9% this year, compared with 4.7% in 2025.

AI spending and energy prices fuel market momentum

Goldman said the rally has been powered mainly by technology and energy stocks.

Analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share in 2026 and 2027 have both been revised upward by 8 percentage points so far this year, driven largely by expectations for stronger artificial intelligence investment and elevated oil prices.

The bank noted, however, that the market advance remains unusually concentrated.

The S&P 500 is up about 10% year to date in 2026, with technology, media and telecom stocks responsible for roughly 85% of those gains.

South Korea, which has benefited significantly from the global semiconductor boom, has rallied nearly 80% this year.

Goldman sees signs of excessive market optimism

Despite the ongoing rally, Goldman warned that several warning signals are beginning to emerge.

The bank said its Risk Appetite Indicator moved above 1.1 last week, reaching the 99th percentile of historical readings going back to 1991.

Retail trading activity has also surged, with volumes climbing 28% since mid-April.

Meanwhile, rising bond yields have continued to compress equity risk premia.

Goldman cautioned that “if oil disruptions continue into the second half of this year and inflation expectations rise further, there is a real risk of a speed bump for equity markets.”

Bond market volatility could trigger a correction

The bank also highlighted rising government bond yields as a potential catalyst for a broader pullback in equities.

According to Goldman, increasing government borrowing needs are placing upward pressure on long-term yields globally, creating an additional headwind for stock markets as financial conditions become tighter.

RBC Capital Markets believes the S&P 500 still has room to move higher over the next year, setting a 12-month target of 7,900, which represents approximately 7.7% upside from early May levels.

Even so, the firm warned that investors should be prepared for periods of market weakness along the way.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said the bank does not expect stocks to rise in a straight path, but added that any downturn would likely amount to no more than “a tier 1 garden-variety pullback in the 5-10% range.”

RBC views the probability of a larger 14% to 20% market decline as relatively low unless concerns about a recession begin to intensify again.

The bank’s outlook is built around what it called an “AI in the fast lane, Middle East in the slow lane” environment, where artificial intelligence-related companies continue delivering strong growth while geopolitical tensions create broader economic uncertainty.

As part of its model, RBC reduced first-quarter 2027 consensus earnings expectations by 5%, while assuming profit growth of 28% for AI-focused businesses and 6% growth for the remainder of the S&P 500.

Its projections also assume consumer inflation of 3.3%, no additional Federal Reserve rate changes, and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5%.

According to RBC, if inflation rises to 3.8%, the Fed resumes tightening policy, and 10-year yields increase to 5%, the firm’s estimate of fair value for the S&P 500 would fall to between 7,400 and 7,500.

Potential drivers of a short-term market pullback include weaker earnings revisions tied to geopolitical conflict, profit-taking in semiconductor shares, uncertainty around U.S. midterm elections, and rising interest rates.

RBC said higher borrowing costs generally hurt stocks more through lower valuation multiples than through direct pressure on earnings.

The bank maintained its favorable view on Growth stocks compared with Value shares and continued to prefer U.S. equities over international markets.

Agentic Processing Seen as Main Driver of Future Growth

Citigroup expects the server CPU industry to expand dramatically over the next several years, projecting the market will grow from $29.3 billion in 2025 to roughly $132 billion by 2030.

The firm said much of that growth is expected to come from agentic CPUs, an emerging category tied to increasingly autonomous artificial intelligence workloads.

Citigroup estimates that general-purpose server CPUs will grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate and reach approximately $50.9 billion by 2030.

AI head node processors are forecast to increase at a 21% CAGR to around $21.1 billion during the same period.

Agentic CPUs are expected to post the strongest gains, with Citigroup projecting a 185% annualized growth rate that would expand the segment to roughly $59.4 billion by 2030.

Intel Expected to Hold Leading Position

The brokerage believes Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) will continue to lead the global CPU market by the end of the decade with an estimated 47% market share.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is projected to capture 34%, while Arm (NASDAQ:ARM) and other competitors are expected to account for the remaining 19%.

Citi Raises Targets on Intel and AMD

Citigroup raised its price target on Intel to $130 from $95 and maintained a buy recommendation on the stock.

The firm also lifted AMD’s target price to $460 from $358 while reiterating a neutral rating.

Cloud Providers Shift Focus Toward AI Deployment

Citigroup said Intel, AMD and Arm competitors are increasingly pursuing CPU-related opportunities as hyperscale cloud providers transition from spending heavily on AI training toward deploying AI systems commercially.

Chip Stocks Continue to Rally Strongly

Intel shares have surged roughly 195% year to date, while AMD has gained approximately 98% over the same period.

Goldman Sachs strategists said the U.S. dollar could be quietly building momentum for further gains, warning that a broader energy shock may hurt European growth prospects and support additional upside for the currency.

While the trade-weighted dollar has traded in a relatively narrow range in recent months, Goldman argued that the surface stability hides much larger moves across global currency markets. The bank identified two dominant forces — persistent energy disruption and growing AI-related demand — as key drivers reshaping terms of trade and creating wider differences in currency performance.

According to the strategists, those factors pull growth in different directions but both contribute to rising inflation, which fits with Goldman’s current macroeconomic outlook. “Our global growth expectations have been roughly stable since the middle of March, despite a longer conflict, while inflation projections have continued to drift higher,” the strategists wrote.

“The clearest risk for a stronger Dollar is if a wider energy shock begins to pressure growth, policy, and prospective returns in other developed countries, particularly Europe,” they said.

Goldman said the dollar’s recent sideways movement reflects a balance between stronger commodity-linked cyclical currencies and heavily managed Asian foreign exchange markets.

The strategists noted that official intervention in currencies including the yen and Indian rupee has capped dollar gains despite otherwise favourable fundamentals, though they warned that such intervention may not remain effective without a material shift in global macro conditions.

The bank also pointed to last week’s dollar rally following stronger U.S. inflation readings, which lifted global bond yields and illustrated how quickly the greenback can respond when macro risks intensify. Limited progress from the Trump-Xi summit and ongoing constraints in energy supply further highlighted the dollar’s relative defensive appeal, Goldman said.

If market risk appetite remains stable, Goldman expects the recent divergence in currency performance to continue, with commodity-exporting currencies outperforming while rate-sensitive importers remain under pressure.

To capture that theme while guarding against a disruptive market shock, the bank favours holding a basket of the Brazilian real, Hungarian forint, Mexican peso and South African rand against short positions in the euro, Swedish krona and Thai baht.

Goldman added that rising inflation alongside resilient growth has already driven bond yields higher, and warned that any extension of the energy shock “should continue to drive relative returns consistent with shifting terms of trade,” a trend the strategists believe would support broader gains for the U.S. dollar against major developed-market currencies.

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All Aquis Stock Exchange Announcements

JPMorgan lowered its 2026 gold price forecasts as short-term demand momentum weakened, although the bank maintained its broader bullish stance and continues to expect gold prices to approach $6,000 per troy ounce by year-end.

The Wall Street bank reduced its average 2026 gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 previously, citing softer investor interest and lighter positioning across the market.

Gold is currently trading between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and the 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures positioning and ETF inflows remain subdued.

“Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, noting that concerns over possible Federal Reserve rate hikes in response to energy-related inflation pressures are weighing on short-term sentiment.

Even so, JPMorgan said the recent pullback should be viewed as a temporary pause rather than a lasting shift in trend. The bank said its bullish long-term thesis — driven by fiscal concerns, currency debasement risks, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty around U.S. policy — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.”

A major catalyst the bank is monitoring is the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which JPMorgan’s energy analysts expect could happen in June. Analysts believe that outcome would ease inflation fears and help reverse recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real yields, allowing gold to recover toward resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce.

The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return during the second half of the year, supporting renewed demand momentum.

JPMorgan lowered its estimate for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes after officially reported net purchases slowed to 16 tonnes in the first quarter amid increased selling activity. Including unreported buying, however, total central bank demand still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, according to estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus.

The bank also cut its forecast for ETF inflows this year to roughly 400 tonnes from 580 tonnes previously, though it noted that global gold ETF holdings remain 108 tonnes higher year-to-date.

Analysts warned that the biggest threat to the outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. employment data and accelerating inflation force the Federal Reserve into an extended tightening cycle, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold ETFs.

Hedge funds have been reducing exposure to U.S. semiconductor shares after the sector’s strong rally, taking profits while continuing to maintain significant positions tied to the artificial intelligence theme, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs cited by Bloomberg on Thursday.

Figures from Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage division reportedly showed that semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies represented the most heavily net-sold U.S. subsector over the past month. The selling activity mainly reflected investors scaling back bullish positions rather than aggressively increasing bearish bets against the industry.

As a result, the sector has shifted into net-selling territory for the year so far.

The move comes after a dramatic surge in chip-related stocks. Goldman’s basket tracking AI semiconductor companies has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 50% this year, while the broader benchmark itself had risen more than 18% between late March and a recent three-session decline.

South Korea’s Kospi index, often viewed as an indicator of global demand for AI infrastructure, briefly climbed above the 8,000-point level for the first time in mid-May. The index had advanced more than 80% year-to-date before retreating sharply.

Goldman’s prime brokerage desk reportedly described the recent positioning changes as portfolio rebalancing rather than a sign of weakening confidence in artificial intelligence investments. The bank noted that overall exposure to U.S. AI-related stocks within its technology, media and telecommunications basket remains close to record highs.

At the same time, hedge funds have increased short positions in broader stock index and exchange-traded fund products as protection against wider market risks. According to the report, these hedging positions are now at their highest level in roughly a decade.

Goldman analysts also noted that gross leverage across hedge fund portfolios climbed to a fresh five-year high this month, while net leverage remained comparatively stable — a pattern the bank said differs from the type of speculative exuberance currently being seen among retail investors.