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Analysts Dismiss Oversupply Concerns

Nomura believes recent concerns about a slowdown in the artificial intelligence memory market are misplaced, arguing that major investment announcements by South Korean chipmakers are unlikely to create excess supply in the foreseeable future.

The brokerage noted that memory manufacturers and related businesses have unveiled investment plans totaling around 4.8 quadrillion won ($3.5 trillion), with approximately 3.7 quadrillion won allocated to memory-focused projects.

While the announcements sparked concerns about future oversupply, Nomura expects market conditions to remain tight.

High-Bandwidth Memory Continues to Lead Demand

According to the brokerage, demand generated by artificial intelligence continues to outstrip supply, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), where manufacturers are concentrating production because of stronger profitability.

As a result, supply of conventional DRAM and NAND products is expected to remain constrained.

Nomura also noted that semiconductor manufacturing hubs require years to complete, meaning recently announced projects will have little impact on production over the medium term.

Long Development Timeline Limits Near-Term Supply Growth

The firm pointed to the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, estimating that the project will not begin limited production until late 2027 despite being launched nine years ago.

That timeline illustrates how major semiconductor investments typically require more than a decade before generating meaningful commercial output.

Meta’s Computing Strategy Could Expand AI Adoption

Nomura also challenged concerns surrounding Meta’s (NASDAQ:META) plans to sell excess computing capacity.

Rather than indicating softer demand, the brokerage believes the move should improve asset utilisation while providing additional computing resources for companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

Lower computing costs could encourage broader AI adoption, supporting continued investment in memory and other semiconductor technologies.

Gold continues to trade above the key $4,100 level as investors balance geopolitical uncertainty with expectations for future U.S. monetary policy. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have reinforced demand for defensive assets, while markets remain highly sensitive to inflation data and interest-rate expectations.

Safe-Haven Demand Remains Elevated

Military developments involving the United States and Iran have renewed demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Even if geopolitical tensions ease temporarily, investors are likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity over the regional outlook.

Should diplomatic progress materialize, gold could experience a period of profit-taking. However, sustained geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide underlying support for prices.

Inflation and Interest Rates Take Centre Stage

Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided over the future direction of interest rates, leaving markets uncertain about the timing of future policy changes.

Although higher interest rates generally reduce the attractiveness of gold, investors are also weighing inflation risks, slowing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty. This combination has helped limit downside pressure on the precious metal.

Upcoming U.S. inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI, could determine whether gold extends its rally or enters a period of consolidation.

Medium-Term Trend Remains Positive

Market participants are also monitoring movements in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and energy prices, all of which continue to influence gold’s performance.

While some institutions have lowered their long-term forecasts, gold continues to benefit from an environment characterised by elevated uncertainty. As long as prices remain above key support near $4,100, the medium-term outlook remains constructive despite the possibility of short-term volatility.

Growing advances in quantum computing are prompting cryptocurrency companies to accelerate preparations for a future in which today’s encryption methods may no longer be sufficient to protect blockchain networks and digital assets.

Quantum technology has the potential to solve mathematical problems far beyond the capabilities of traditional computers, creating the possibility that existing cryptographic systems could eventually be broken. That presents a significant long-term challenge for the cryptocurrency market, which relies on established encryption techniques to secure wallets and validate transactions.

Industry concern increased following research released by Alphabet’s Google earlier this year suggesting that quantum computers capable of breaking modern encryption could emerge as early as 2029. Analysts at Citigroup have also argued that rapid progress in quantum computing and artificial intelligence is shortening the expected timeline for potential cyber risks.

The growing strategic importance of quantum technology has also attracted government attention, with U.S. President Donald Trump signing executive orders last month aimed at strengthening domestic quantum capabilities.

Blockchain developers are now exploring the adoption of post-quantum cryptography, although the migration is expected to be lengthy and technically demanding.

“It’s the most direct and existential threat towards cryptocurrencies and crypto networks,” said Chris Tam, head of quantum innovation at BTQ Technologies.

Industry Evaluates Long-Term Security Challenges

Most blockchain networks continue to rely on elliptic-curve cryptography, which secures digital ownership through public and private key pairs. While current computers cannot realistically derive private keys from public ones, sufficiently advanced quantum computers may eventually be capable of doing so.

“Crypto especially is uniquely exposed because blockchains are transparent and permanent,” said Utkarsh Ahuja, managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital.

Researchers estimate that a significant proportion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could become vulnerable if quantum attacks become feasible, increasing concerns over future market stability.

Cristiano Ventricelli of Moody’s Ratings warned that a large-scale theft could severely affect confidence across the cryptocurrency market. “Everyone will feel the impact,” he said.

Developers Work on Post-Quantum Solutions

Experts believe there is still time to prepare before quantum computing reaches that level of capability, allowing blockchain projects to implement post-quantum security standards.

However, developers caution that newer encryption methods remain under active development and could introduce higher costs, increased storage demands and performance trade-offs.

“There is an engineering challenge ahead, but there are engineering solutions already on the table,” said Zach Pandl of Grayscale.

While no major blockchain has yet deployed post-quantum signature algorithms, projects including the Ethereum Foundation and the Algorand Foundation have already begun developing long-term roadmaps.

“The sort of disaster scenario is that it happens way sooner than we think,” said Christopher Smith, CEO of Quantus. “It felt right to start doing (something) now, because it’s responsible to have a plan,” added Bruno Martins of the Algorand Foundation.

Bernstein has revised its outlook for the nickel market, increasing its average 2026 price forecast to $17,357 per metric ton from an estimated $15,164 per ton this year. The investment firm believes the global market is moving closer to balance, with only a limited supply surplus remaining after expectations at the beginning of the year pointed to a much larger oversupply of more than 200,000 metric tons.

Indonesia Drives Market Changes

The brokerage said Indonesia continues to have the greatest influence on global nickel prices through tighter ore availability, higher benchmark HPM pricing and growing uncertainty surrounding mining policy.

Production costs have risen sharply, with Bernstein estimating C1 cash costs of $17,870 per ton at the 75th percentile and $18,650 per ton at the 90th percentile, both well above 2025 levels.

Reports that Indonesia may increase RKAB mining quotas to between 300 million and 350 million wet metric tons during its July review are believed to have contributed to June’s decline in nickel prices.

Supply Chain Disruptions Add Cost Pressure

Geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel have also disrupted sulphuric acid supplies used in HPAL nickel production. Rising granular sulphur prices—from under $600 per ton to around $1,000—have forced some Indonesian producers to reduce output.

Bernstein expects these cost pressures to ease once supply conditions improve, particularly if geopolitical tensions subside and sulphuric acid availability recovers.

Demand Outlook Remains Stable

Electric vehicle demand has remained mixed, with global sales increasing just 0.5% through April. Battery electric vehicles continued to grow, while plug-in hybrid sales weakened. LFP batteries remain dominant, although Bernstein believes sodium-ion batteries could become a more meaningful source of nickel demand as production costs fall over the next few years.

Meanwhile, stainless steel continues to underpin the market. Combined nickel inventories on the LME and SHFE stand at approximately 375,000 metric tons, but Bernstein expects stainless steel demand to increase by around 5% year-on-year, helping support overall consumption.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape industries beyond software as companies accelerate investment in robotics and automation. Physical AI is emerging as one of the next major technology themes, with applications expanding across manufacturing, logistics, transportation, defence and infrastructure.

Growth Depends on More Than Better AI Models

Unlike digital AI, success in physical automation requires reliable hardware, advanced sensors, battery technology, industrial networking and continuous data collection from real operating environments.

This makes commercial deployment more demanding, but also creates higher barriers to entry for competitors.

Industrial Ecosystems Stand to Benefit

The companies likely to benefit extend far beyond robot manufacturers.

Demand for automation is expected to support suppliers of industrial software, machine vision, embedded computing, semiconductors, networking equipment and safety systems as businesses modernise operations.

Robotics-as-a-Service could further accelerate adoption by reducing upfront investment costs and making automation accessible to a broader range of customers.

A Long-Term Structural Trend

Physical AI is unlikely to scale as quickly as generative AI, but its adoption is expected to build steadily as companies gain operational experience and improve deployment efficiency.

For investors, the opportunity may lie not only in the robots themselves but across the broader industrial ecosystem that enables intelligent automation.

Barclays expects investors to shift their attention from geopolitical headlines to corporate earnings as the second-quarter reporting season begins.

Although renewed conflict between the United States and Iran has increased market volatility, the bank believes company fundamentals will ultimately determine the direction of equity markets.

Markets React to Higher Oil Prices

The latest military developments pushed crude oil prices higher while weighing on stocks and bond markets.

“Equities received more reality checks this week, with the broadening trade coming under pressure as U.S.-Iran tensions re-escalated,” Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said in a note.

The bank added that recent market positioning may have intensified the reaction following the sharp decline in oil prices seen earlier this year.

Focus Turns to Company Results

Barclays maintains that “the current fragile peace is likely to hold,” limiting the probability of a prolonged energy shock.

Instead, the bank believes the upcoming earnings season will become the market’s primary catalyst.

According to the strategists, second-quarter results will be “crucial in reconnecting price action with fundamentals” and will indicate whether equities can continue their recent advance.

While the bank expects periods of higher volatility during the summer, driven by geopolitics, artificial intelligence valuations and Federal Reserve uncertainty, it believes earnings growth will remain the dominant factor for investors.

Campari (BIT:CPR) is increasing its investment behind the Aperol brand as competition within the fast-growing spritz category continues to accelerate. With more rival aperitifs and private-label alternatives entering both retail shelves and hospitality venues, the company is focusing on reinforcing brand recognition while expanding its presence in key markets.

Aperol has become Campari’s largest revenue contributor, representing roughly one-quarter of group sales. The brand has remained a major source of growth even as the broader spirits industry has faced softer consumer spending and changing purchasing habits.

Brand Protection Becomes a Strategic Priority

The company is placing greater emphasis on distinguishing authentic Aperol Spritz cocktails from competing orange-coloured alternatives that have become increasingly common in bars, restaurants and supermarkets.

Andrea Neri, Managing Director of House of Aperitivi at Campari, said some consumers are served similar-looking drinks without realising they are not made with Aperol.

“The new development is that, since 2023, some bars and restaurants have begun serving orange-coloured drinks, often from tap, that are not necessarily made with Aperol,” he said, adding that consumers often think they are drinking the original.

To reinforce the brand’s identity, Campari has expanded promotional campaigns across Italy and introduced a loyalty programme that recognises bars and restaurants serving genuine Aperol Spritz cocktails. The initiative already includes around 2,000 participating venues.

The company has also broadened the rollout of ready-to-serve Aperol Spritz kegs, providing hospitality operators with a faster and more consistent way to prepare the drink.

Spritz Category Continues to Expand

Demand for spritz cocktails has risen rapidly over recent years, creating opportunities for established brands as well as new entrants.

According to IWSR data, worldwide spritz consumption increased from fewer than 2.5 billion servings in 2019 to almost 4 billion servings in 2024, making the category one of the strongest growth areas within the global beverage industry.

Campari has identified Aperol as one of its most important strategic brands and continues to prioritise advertising and promotional spending to support long-term growth.

New Rivals Target Consumer Demand

Competition is expanding beyond supermarket private labels. Alternative aperitif-based cocktails, including the Hugo Spritz, have become increasingly popular across Europe and North America, offering consumers different flavour profiles while benefiting from growing interest in lighter, lower-alcohol drinks.

Many Hugo Spritz recipes feature St-Germain elderflower liqueur, while Campari has responded by expanding its own aperitif portfolio with products such as Sarti Rosa, alongside established brands including Campari, Cynar, Crodino and Mondoro.

Neri said consumers continue to embrace aperitif-style drinks and lighter daytime occasions.

“As the category leader, we have worked to expand our spritz portfolio across multiple brands,” he said.

Analysts See Continued Growth Potential

Despite increasing competition, analysts remain optimistic about Campari’s position within the category.

“The fact that there are lookalike products is a sign that Aperol is a very strong brand,” said Sandro Castaldo, professor of marketing at Bocconi University, noting that colour is often the first element copied by imitators.

Market analysts also believe the company’s investment in marketing, distribution and brand protection should help maintain its leadership.

“I don’t see lookalike products representing a threat for now,” AlphaValue analyst Theodore Duval-Segard told Reuters.

“Campari has literally reinvented the spritz. At this point, Aperol and spritz are almost inseparable.”