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Gold prices rose on Tuesday as lower crude prices reduced some concerns about energy-driven inflation and investors assessed the potential implications for U.S. monetary policy.

At 04:52 ET, spot gold gained 0.3% to $4,151.89 an ounce, while gold futures increased 0.5% to $4,179.15 an ounce.

Brent crude futures were trading at $99.50 a barrel after indications that Gulf oil exports had recovered during parts of September. G7 countries have also pledged to use emergency energy reserves in response to potential supply disruptions.

Lower oil prices could reduce some inflationary pressure, although the implications for Federal Reserve policy will depend on broader inflation, employment and economic data.

Gulf Oil Shipments Exceed Pre-War Levels on 14 Days

Gulf crude exports exceeded levels recorded before the Iran war on 14 days during September, according to Kpler shipping data cited by Reuters.

The seven-day moving average for regional crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on 30 September.

The figures showed continued oil flows from the region despite risks affecting tankers and other commercial vessels. According to the supplied material, Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz after the outbreak of the war, affecting a route that previously handled approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

The conflict has also affected other regional shipping routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near Yemen.

The recovery in oil exports, together with the G7 pledge regarding emergency reserves, coincided with the decline in Brent crude prices.

Fed Expectations Shift Following Employment Data

Recent U.S. employment figures came in below expectations, adding another factor for investors assessing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

According to the supplied material, current expectations indicate that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October before increasing borrowing costs in December. This represents a market expectation rather than a confirmed policy decision.

Investors are also awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, when policymakers raised interest rates for the first time in three years.

Changes in interest-rate expectations can affect demand for gold because the metal does not generate interest income. U.S. Treasury yields declined after renewed selling in the bond market on Monday, while the U.S. dollar index also moved slightly lower.

ANZ Cites Decline in October Rate-Hike Expectations

ANZ analysts said gold had recovered from last week’s decline as investors reassessed global fiscal pressures and expectations for monetary policy.

The analysts also cited weaker U.S. employment data as a factor behind lower expectations for an October rate increase.

According to ANZ, markets were pricing an approximately 20% probability of an October rate increase, compared with around 70% one week earlier.

The figures reflect market expectations cited by ANZ and do not represent a confirmed decision by the Federal Reserve.

European equities moved higher on Tuesday morning as French government bond yields stabilised following recent volatility in sovereign debt markets.

The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.2%. The CAC 40 had fallen as much as 1.1% during Monday’s session.

Spain’s IBEX 35 gained 0.7% as investors also assessed the announcement of a snap election.

The moves followed volatility in French government debt that widened the yield spread between French and German bonds and coincided with declines in the euro. French sovereign yields paused their recent increase after the release of the government’s draft 2027 budget, according to the supplied material.

Sovereign Bond Yields Remain in Focus

European markets entered the fourth quarter following increases in government borrowing costs across several major economies.

According to the supplied material, yields on 10-year US Treasuries, French government bonds and UK gilts recently reached multi-decade highs.

Markets have also been assessing developments in the Middle East and their potential implications for energy prices and inflation.

Higher energy costs could influence expectations for monetary policy if they contribute to inflationary pressures. Investors have consequently continued to monitor interest-rate expectations alongside developments in sovereign bond markets.

Oil Prices Stabilise After Decline

Crude oil futures stabilised after falling nearly 2% overnight, according to the supplied material.

Maritime shipping data indicated a gradual recovery in Middle Eastern export volumes, while Saudi Arabia had resumed operations through its East-West Pipeline and loadings from Yanbu on the Red Sea.

G7 countries also pledged to coordinate potential releases from strategic reserves and measures to increase supply flows.

The impact of these developments on future oil supply and prices remains dependent on regional conditions and any further disruption to production or transportation.

Eurozone Retail Sales and Earnings Season Ahead

Investors are awaiting August eurozone retail sales data later in the session for further information on consumer spending.

Attention is also turning towards the third-quarter corporate earnings season, which is due to begin next week.

The reporting period will provide further information on company revenues, margins and costs at a time when businesses are operating with higher borrowing costs and continued input and wage pressures.

European and British wholesale natural gas prices rose on Tuesday as market participants assessed continued risks to tanker traffic in the Middle East alongside an increase in liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The benchmark Dutch front-month natural gas contract gained 3% to €75.74 per megawatt-hour, reversing losses from the previous session.

In Britain, the equivalent wholesale gas contract increased by 3 pence to 189.00 pence per therm.

LNG Shipments Through Strait of Hormuz Increase

The increase in European gas prices followed a quieter start to the week, when market participants considered data indicating higher regional supply flows.

According to maritime tracking data cited in the supplied material, volumes of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz increased in September to their highest monthly level since February.

The increase coincided with the partial resumption of regional pipeline networks and loading terminals.

At the same time, drone and missile attacks targeting commercial tankers and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea have continued. The supplied material said shipping insurance costs remain elevated and transit routes have become less predictable.

Potential disruptions to maritime traffic remain relevant to European gas markets because LNG cargoes transported by sea supply European regasification terminals.

EU Gas Storage Reaches 72%

European Union underground natural gas storage facilities are currently 72% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe cited in the supplied material.

That compares with a storage level of 66% at the same point last month.

The increase provides additional stored supply ahead of the winter heating period. However, according to the supplied material, current inventories remain below historical benchmarks.

Future European gas prices could be affected by a range of factors, including temperatures, supply flows and developments affecting maritime LNG transportation.

Informa (LSE:INF) has agreed to acquire events organiser Clarion from Blackstone for an enterprise value of £2.24 billion, or approximately $3 billion, as the group also begins a formal review of separating its Taylor & Francis academic publishing business.

The transaction values Clarion at 11.1 times expected 2027 EBITDA. Informa said the multiple would fall to approximately nine times after including £50 million of anticipated annual run-rate cost savings.

The company expects the acquisition to increase adjusted diluted earnings per share by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2027 and generate a post-tax return on invested capital of more than 10% by 2029.

Clarion Expected to Generate More Than £575 Million of Revenue

Clarion operates more than 100 business-to-business event brands, including the IFA consumer electronics exhibition in Germany, DSEI defence exhibition and ICE gaming event in Barcelona.

The business is expected to generate more than £575 million of revenue in 2027, with an adjusted operating margin above 30%.

Informa said the combination would create the largest UK-listed B2B events operator, with group revenue exceeding $6 billion and underlying growth of approximately 7%.

In addition to the planned £50 million of annual cost savings, Informa has identified £25 million of additional operating profit from potential revenue synergies by 2029.

Informa Plans £940 Million Equity Raise

Informa intends to fund the acquisition through acquisition financing and an equity raise of approximately £940 million, equivalent to around 9% of its existing share capital.

The equity financing will comprise an institutional placing and a retail offer. Informa will pause its existing share buyback as part of the transaction.

The company expects net debt to EBITDA to remain below three times at year-end and decline to below 2.5 times by the end of 2027.

Completion of the Clarion acquisition is expected late in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approvals.

Taylor & Francis Enters Formal Separation Review

Alongside the acquisition, Informa has launched a formal review of a potential separation of Taylor & Francis from the group.

The academic publishing business is approaching $1 billion in annual revenue and is growing at approximately 4% a year. Informa expects to report the outcome of the review alongside its full-year results in March 2027.

The company has not specified whether a separation would take the form of a sale, spin-off or another transaction.

Chief Executive Stephen Carter said: “With Taylor & Francis approaching $1bn in revenue, growing at 4%± and with its Open Research capabilities firmly established, we believe it will now benefit from greater flexibility and freedom through the next phase of its development, as Informa further expands the depth and reach of its B2B portfolio.”

Blackstone acquired Clarion from Providence Equity Partners in 2017 for £600 million.