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The U.S. dollar slipped slightly on Monday, easing back after last week’s advance as investors reacted to comments from Federal Reserve official John Williams that strengthened expectations for a rate cut at the central bank’s December meeting.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against six major peers—was down 0.1% at 100.077, giving up a small portion of the roughly 1% rise recorded last week.

Rising Rate-Cut Odds Drag on the Dollar

Hopes of near-term monetary easing increased after Williams suggested on Friday that a policy change could be on the table “in the near term.”

Market pricing now reflects a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, up from around 44% only a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting indicated that several officials still worry inflation is running too high, leaving December’s outcome far from settled.

This shortened trading week will focus heavily on U.S. data releases, including Tuesday’s September retail sales report. The Beige Book, due Wednesday, will also be key—particularly if it offers clues on labor-market softening. As ING put it, “any anecdotal evidence from the Fed’s 12 reporting districts that the slowdown in employment is broadening could put the notion of a Fed December rate cut back on the agenda.”

Euro Pushes Higher on Ukraine–Russia Peace Signals

EUR/USD advanced 0.2% to 1.1531, supported by signs that negotiations to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia may be gaining traction.

Washington and Kyiv were expected to continue refining a revised peace plan on Monday after agreeing to adjust an earlier proposal widely criticized for favoring Moscow. A joint statement from both sides confirmed that a “refined peace framework” was drafted after discussions in Geneva on Sunday, though no additional details were disclosed.

In economic data, Germany’s Ifo business climate index slipped to 88.1 in November from 88.4 in October, reinforcing concerns about ongoing weakness in Europe’s largest economy.

ING analysts noted: “We are a little surprised to see EUR/USD still languishing not far from 1.1500 – but perhaps investors are more comfortable expressing euro-positive views through EUR/CHF than EUR/USD. Still, we think events this week could firm up the floor in EUR/USD at 1.1500.”

GBP/USD edged down to 1.3096 as investors looked ahead to Wednesday’s U.K. budget. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to balance growth-supportive spending with the need to maintain credibility on fiscal targets.

ING added: “Our baseline going into Wednesday’s budget is that sterling’s upside is probably quite limited on a credible/tight budget and that there is some sterling downside on the view that the 2026 Bank of England easing cycle is under-priced.”

Yen Weakens Again as Markets Watch for Possible Tokyo Intervention

USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 156.71, keeping the yen under pressure after a sharp fall last week to multi-month lows. Investors increasingly believe the Bank of Japan will maintain—or even loosen—its stance amid the new government’s push for expansive fiscal and monetary policies under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Still, Japanese authorities have stepped up warnings that they may intervene if yen losses become disorderly, although Monday’s holiday kept market volumes thin.

Low-liquidity sessions have historically offered opportunities for officials to step in, raising speculation that this week could provide a window.

USD/CNY held steady at 7.1064, while AUD/USD added 0.1% to 0.6465, supported by the generally improved risk tone across markets.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) inched higher on Monday, staging a mild recovery after a bruising week marked by accelerating institutional withdrawals and renewed uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path into December.

By 01:25 ET (06:25 GMT), the leading cryptocurrency was up 1.4% at $87,050.5, still well below the territory it traded in earlier this month. Bitcoin tumbled more than 10% last week, sliding to seven-month lows just above $80,000.

ETF Outflows Continue to Pressure Prices

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $88,610.4 before clawing its way back above the $90,000 threshold. The move came as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged yet another round of withdrawals, extending a four-week streak of net redemptions.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.22 billion in outflows during the week ending Nov. 21, bringing the rolling four-week total to about $4.34 billion.

Despite the persistent selling, trading activity surged. Volumes across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs topped $40 billion last week, a spike analysts interpret as a sign of intensifying institutional capitulation.

Fed Outlook Still Murky Despite Rising Rate-Cut Bets

Cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to shifting macro expectations. Market pricing now implies roughly a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December—up from about 44% a week earlier.

Even so, policymakers have continued to strike a cautious tone. Many officials warn that sticky inflation and a still-resilient labor market make a near-term policy pivot far from certain.

Traders are also digesting the fallout from the recent U.S. government shutdown, which delayed key economic releases and left markets operating with less clarity than usual. Upcoming retail-sales and producer-price figures—due later this week—are expected to be pivotal for rate expectations and overall risk appetite.

Altcoins See Slight Lift but Remain Capped

Altcoins posted modest gains on Monday after enduring steep declines last week, though trading sentiment remained guarded.

• Ethereum rose 1.2% to $2,842.88
• XRP gained 1.7% to $2.07
• Solana advanced 1.8%
• Cardano edged up 0.8%
• Polygon slipped 0.6%

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin climbed more than 2%.

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U.S. equity futures posted modest gains early Monday, with traders focused on the Federal Reserve’s December decision and the latest signals from U.S.–Ukraine discussions that could shape a possible peace framework with Russia. Oil prices drifted lower, while upcoming earnings from Agilent (NYSE:A) and news of Lenovo boosting its memory-chip inventories highlighted ongoing strains in AI-related supply chains.

Futures Move Up in Early Trade

Stock futures pointed to a stronger Wall Street open as investors reassessed the likelihood of a rate cut next month.

As of 02:48 ET, Dow futures added 153 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures gained 41 points (0.6%) and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 213 points (0.9%).

Market confidence in another cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting has increased. But policymakers remain split: some argue that easing will be required to support a cooling labor market, while others warn that the federal shutdown has left the central bank with “outdated, stale” data, complicating the timing of any move.

Despite the disagreement, futures markets still assign over a 70% chance of a 25 bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed delivered similar reductions in September and October.

Friday’s session saw major indices rebound on rate-cut hopes, though all three still finished the week lower due to concerns about inflated tech valuations and the durability of massive AI infrastructure spending.

Oil Slips as Peace Talks Draw Attention

Crude prices retreated slightly as investors balanced shifting Fed expectations with developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

By 03:09 ET, Brent crude declined 0.4% to $61.70 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $57.81.

Washington and Kyiv were set to continue discussions after agreeing to revise the initial peace proposal backed by President Donald Trump—an outline critics say leaned too heavily in Moscow’s favor. Trump had pushed for a deal before Thanksgiving, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled the deadline was flexible.

ING analysts commented: “Developments related to a potential peace agreement are important for the oil market, particularly amid significant uncertainty about the impact of recently imposed sanctions on Russia’s [oil majors] Rosneft and Lukoil,” adding: “Clearly, a peace deal increases the likelihood that sanctions will be lifted, or at least not enforced strictly.”

Gold Softens as Risk Appetite Improves

Gold traded slightly lower, pressured by improving sentiment across risk assets and optimism around a December rate cut. Prospects for a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also reduced safe-haven demand.

Even so, worries about global fiscal fragility and a diplomatic dispute between China and Japan provided some underlying support, keeping spot prices above $4,000 per ounce.

At 03:48 ET, spot gold was steady at $4,064.70/oz and December futures slipped 0.4% to $4,097.80/oz.

Agilent Earnings on Deck

Corporate earnings will be lighter this week, but Agilent Technologies will be a key highlight on Monday. Investors are watching whether demand for its life-sciences tools can offset two years of sluggish order trends.

In August, the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $6.91–$6.93 billion (from $6.73–$6.81 billion) and projected annual EPS of $5.56–$5.59.
Bloomberg consensus sees fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS at $1.59 on sales of $1.83 billion.

Lenovo Stockpiles Memory Amid AI Supply Crunch

Lenovo Group (USOTC:LNVGY), the world’s top PC manufacturer, is reportedly holding memory-chip inventories about 50% above normal levels, CFO Winston Cheng told Bloomberg TV. A surge in demand from AI data centers and cloud hardware has tightened global supply and driven prices higher.

This could push up consumer electronics costs broadly, potentially weighing on demand in upcoming quarters. Still, Cheng noted that Lenovo sees strategic advantages in its inventory build-up and aims to avoid passing increased costs on to customers.

Last week, Lenovo posted a slight drop in quarterly profit for September, as rising AI-related investment offset strong PC and device sales.

European equities advanced on Monday, lifted by growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as next month.

By 08:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.4%.

Fed optimism fuels early-week momentum

European bourses tracked the upbeat tone from Asian markets after influential Federal Reserve official John Williams said late last week that U.S. rates could decline “in the near term.”

Investors now see a 69.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The expectation of lower borrowing costs has helped global indices recoup some of the losses from the recent pullback, particularly in heavily valued AI-linked technology stocks.

U.K. budget in focus as Germany awaits Ifo data

In Europe, attention turns to Germany’s Ifo business climate index, due later Monday, which is forecast to show a modest improvement for November.

In the U.K., markets are bracing for Wednesday’s Autumn Budget. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is widely expected to announce tax increases to stabilize public finances, after years of sluggish economic growth since the 2007–08 financial crisis. Though the Labour government promised to revive Britain’s growth trajectory, Reeves may need to raise tens of billions of pounds in taxes for the second time since the election to meet borrowing rules, avoid a bond-market backlash, and boost welfare spending.

Retailers eye Black Friday kickoff

With few major earnings reports scheduled, the week is likely to see lighter trading volumes—Japan is closed for a holiday today, and U.S. markets will pause for Thanksgiving on Thursday.

Black Friday, which follows immediately after, marks the unofficial start of the crucial holiday shopping season for retailers across Europe and the U.S.

Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) shares rose sharply after its redesigned consumer AI app, Qwen, saw a strong debut in public beta testing, reviving optimism about the company’s generative AI ambitions.

Oil stabilizes as traders monitor Ukraine peace efforts

Crude oil prices steadied after last week’s slump as markets assessed the implications of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Brent crude rose 0.3% to $61.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate edged up 0.1% to $57.85.

Both benchmarks fell around 3% last week, hitting their lowest levels since October 21, amid concerns that a peace agreement could pave the way for increased Russian supply on global markets.

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Ukraine reported meaningful progress on a potential peace framework.

ImmuPharma PLC (LSE:IMM) has provided an update on its ongoing discussions with multiple prospective partners for P140, its lead autoimmune therapy candidate. The company is in active engagement with several major global pharmaceutical groups, seeking a partnership structure that aligns with its long-term strategy and maximizes shareholder value. While the original goal was to finalize an agreement by the end of 2025, ImmuPharma has extended the timetable into 2026 to ensure it secures the most advantageous deal.

The company emphasized that its financial footing remains solid, with a cash runway stretching into Q4 2026, strengthened by recent R&D tax credits and disciplined financial management. Leadership notes that the extra time affords the opportunity to pursue a partnership that fully supports P140’s commercial and clinical potential.

More about ImmuPharma

ImmuPharma PLC is a specialty biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing peptide-based therapies. Its pipeline includes innovative candidates targeting autoimmune disorders alongside a range of anti-infective treatments.

Phoenix Group Holdings (LSE:PHNX) has emerged with a solid showing in the Prudential Regulation Authority’s inaugural Life Insurance Sector Stress Test (LIST 2025), demonstrating the durability of its capital position under severe market-shock scenarios. The assessment confirmed that the firm’s risk-management framework is functioning effectively, with its Shareholder Capital Coverage Ratio remaining within the targeted range even amid extreme stresses. The outcome reinforces Phoenix Group’s ability to navigate volatile conditions and supports stakeholder confidence in its long-term financial resilience.

The company’s outlook is shaped by constructive commentary from recent earnings discussions and an improvement in cash-flow generation. These positives are partially offset by weaker profitability trends and valuation concerns. While Phoenix’s strategic progress and sizeable dividend yield provide supportive elements, ongoing financial-stability risks and continued losses temper the broader view.

More about Phoenix Group Holdings

Phoenix Group Holdings plc operates within the life-insurance sector, offering a spectrum of insurance and long-term savings products. The company is recognized for its disciplined capital management and strong risk-mitigation practices, which underpin its market position and long-term commitment to delivering value for shareholders.

S4 Capital Plc (LSE:SFOR) has lowered its financial expectations for 2025, now forecasting a near-10% drop in like-for-like net revenue. The downgrade reflects weaker project-driven income, increased client caution, and slower momentum in securing new business. As a result, operational EBITDA is projected at about £75 million—below prior market assumptions. Management noted that liquidity has improved and reaffirmed its year-end net debt guidance of £100–140 million, despite the softer trading environment.

The company’s outlook remains dominated by financial instability and bearish technical signals. Although its dividend yield and some commentary from the earnings call offer limited positives, these are overshadowed by broader operational and financial challenges that continue to pressure sentiment.

More about S4 Capital Plc

S4 Capital Plc is a global digital advertising and marketing services group serving multinational, regional, and local clients, as well as influencer-led brands. The company blends marketing and technology capabilities to deliver high-speed, data-driven content and digital solutions. With a workforce of around 6,500 across 33 countries, S4 generates roughly 80% of its revenue from the Americas, 15% from EMEA, and 5% from Asia-Pacific. Its strategic aim is to reach a 60:20:20 geographic split and a 75:25 mix between marketing and technology services.

OptiBiotix Health (LSE:OPTI) has announced a major enhancement to its SweetBiotix® manufacturing process, unveiling a new enzymatic technology that boosts production yield and purity while lowering overall costs. The improvement also refines the taste profile of the natural, high-fiber, low-calorie sweeteners, which are designed as healthier alternatives to both sugar and artificial sweeteners. Management expects the innovation to reinforce SweetBiotix’s competitive position by directly addressing consumer and industry concerns around sugar substitutes. The development could also broaden partnership opportunities with sugar producers and is anticipated to lift investor confidence as commercial potential expands.

More about OptiBiotix Health

OptiBiotix Health plc is a life sciences company developing microbiome-modulating products aimed at preventing and managing disease. Its portfolio includes prebiotic ingredients such as SlimBiome®, WellBiome®, SweetBiotix®, and Microbiome Modulators. The company also maintains interests in skincare through SkinBioTherapeutics plc and probiotics via ProBiotix Health plc, reflecting rising global demand for science-driven health and wellness solutions.

MTI Wireless Edge Ltd (LSE:MWE) has reported record results for the nine months to 30 September 2025, supported by strong demand across all three of its business divisions. Revenue rose 12%, while profit from operations increased 21%, driven by heightened global defence spending, accelerating 5G deployments, and expanding demand for water-management solutions. The Antenna division benefited from rising defence budgets worldwide, Mottech’s water-control technologies gained traction in key markets such as Israel and the U.S., and MTI Summit delivered a notable turnaround with a healthy pipeline of new opportunities. With a solid order backlog and expectations for a progressive dividend, the company is positioned for a strong finish to the year.

The outlook is underpinned by MTI’s solid financial performance and comparatively attractive valuation. Still, bearish technical indicators point to prevailing downward momentum in the share price. With no additional earnings-call or corporate-event disclosures, there is limited further visibility into near-term catalysts.

More about MTI Wireless Edge

MTI Wireless Edge Ltd is an Israel-based technology group providing communication and radio-frequency solutions across multiple sectors. Its operations span three core divisions: Antenna, Water Control & Management, and Distribution & Professional Consulting Services. The company is recognized for its advanced antenna systems for commercial, RFID, and military applications, as well as its sophisticated water-management offerings through its Mottech subsidiary. It also delivers consulting and engineering expertise in RF and microwave technologies.

M&C Saatchi (LSE:SAA) has issued a trading update indicating that FY2025 revenue will fall due to the unprecedented U.S. Government shutdown, which significantly disrupted activity within its high-margin Issues division. The company now expects net revenue to decline by around 7%. Even so, M&C Saatchi plans to proceed with a £5 million share buyback, citing confidence in its balance-sheet strength and longer-term strategy. Management remains upbeat about growth prospects, noting that the Issues specialism is expected to rebound to double-digit growth in FY2026 as conditions normalize.

While the company has made notable strides in profitability and cash generation, its outlook is tempered by bearish technical indicators and a comparatively rich valuation. With no earnings-call or recent corporate-event data available, these elements do not further shape the assessment.

More about M&C Saatchi plc

M&C Saatchi is a global creative solutions group delivering advertising, issues-led communications, PR, consulting, and media services. Operating through major hubs across the UK, Europe, the Middle East, APAC, and the Americas, the company uses a regional-first model to help clients maximize brand impact worldwide.