UK business confidence fell to its lowest level in 17 months in September as companies reported concerns over higher energy costs, inflation and economic uncertainty, according to the latest Lloyds Business Barometer.
The headline confidence measure declined 12 points to 41%, from 53% in August, marking its lowest reading since April 2025. Despite the decline, confidence remained above the survey’s long-term average of 30%, although it was below the 12-month average of 47%.
The survey followed renewed tensions in the Middle East, which have contributed to higher energy costs and increased uncertainty over the economic outlook.
Economic Optimism Declines to 31%
Businesses’ confidence in the wider economy fell 18 points to 31%, compared with a 12-month average of 37%.
The proportion of companies expressing optimism about the economy declined to 52% from 64%, while the proportion reporting pessimism increased to 21% from 15%.
Businesses cited factors including energy prices, broader cost pressures, inflation and global uncertainty.
Companies’ expectations for their own trading performance also weakened. The measure declined eight points to 50%, below its 12-month average of 56%.
The proportion of businesses expecting higher output over the next 12 months fell nine points to 57%, while the share anticipating lower activity edged down to 7%.
Price Expectations Edge Higher
The proportion of companies expecting to increase prices during the next 12 months rose one percentage point to 52%, ending three consecutive months of declines.
Price expectations nevertheless remained below their levels from a year earlier, as companies balanced increased costs against competitive pressures.
Manufacturing and Services Confidence Falls
Confidence declined across most of the sectors covered by the survey.
Manufacturing recorded a 19-point decline to 36%, while services fell 21 points to 35%. Construction confidence decreased eight points to 47%.
Retail was the exception, with confidence increasing three points to 51%, supported by stronger customer demand and improved economic news.
Smaller Businesses Record Larger Decline
Confidence among companies with annual turnover below £5 million declined 14 points to 39%.
Businesses with turnover between £5 million and £25 million recorded a five-point decrease to 54%, while confidence among companies generating between £25 million and £100 million increased three points to 75%.
Domestic-focused businesses recorded a 12-point decline in confidence to 32%, while the measure for internationally active companies fell 10 points to 49%.
Confidence Falls Across Most UK Regions
Business confidence declined across 10 of Britain’s 12 regions and nations.
The South West recorded a 30-point decline to 25%, while confidence in the East Midlands fell 31 points to 20%. Wales recorded the lowest reading at 16%, following a 38-point decrease.
The West Midlands recorded a 22-point increase to 69%, while confidence in the North East rose five points to 50%.
The latest decline in overall business confidence was comparable with the fall recorded earlier in 2026 following the initial escalation of the Middle East conflict.









