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Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that the tariffs imposed under Trump’s IEEPA authority were illegal gave the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a boost. Bitcoin price also climbed on hopes that removing a key inflationary factor would prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner.

The problem is that while the Supreme Court’s decision complicates the imposition of tariffs, there are alternative tools beyond the IEEPA. For example, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days in the event of an economic crisis, although only Congress can extend them, and Trump already used it on Saturday.

There is also Section 201, which protects U.S. industries from foreign competition; Section 301, which allows the U.S. Trade Representative to impose unlimited tariffs on countries with unfair practices, reviewed every four years; Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows tariffs of up to 50% or even total import bans against countries that discriminate against the US; and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Trump’s favorite, which allows unlimited tariffs if there is a “threat to national security.”

In the meantime, as companies passed more tariff costs to consumers, December PCE showed monthly inflation accelerating to 0.4% and year-on-year inflation at 2.9%, with core inflation rising to 3%. If this trend continues, the Fed could even consider raising interest rates, as suggested by the latest meeting minutes.

It also appears that, to prevent Trump from diverting Fed policy from employment and inflation data, rumors are spreading that Jerome Powell is working to strengthen the Fed’s independence, using strategies to win favor with Congress and encouraging dissent within committees, which could make it difficult for his successor to control the agenda.

If Powell succeeds, and tariffs remain while companies keep passing costs to consumers, the market could finish the year disappointed with the Fed’s stance, weighing on overall sentiment.

Pernod Ricard (EU:RI) shares dropped more than 3% on Monday after Deutsche Bank lowered its recommendation on the stock to “sell” from “hold,” arguing that this year’s sharp rally has moved ahead of underlying business fundamentals.

The downgrade follows the company’s recent first-half fiscal 2026 results, which showed organic sales declining 5.9% and EBIT down 7.5%, broadly matching market expectations.

Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett said the valuation now looks stretched, noting that Pernod trades at roughly 15.2x calendar 2026 earnings — only a 14% discount to European beverage peers. In his view, that gap does not sufficiently reflect the company’s leverage level of 3.8x net debt to EBITDA and an uncertain growth outlook.

According to the bank, the stock’s roughly 20% gain year to date appears largely driven by positioning effects, particularly the unwinding of heavy short interest, rather than a meaningful improvement in operating performance.

Two main risks support the downgrade. The first is leverage. Management has pledged to reduce net debt/EBITDA to below 3x by fiscal 2029, but achieving that goal depends on earnings recovery, ongoing asset disposals and strict capital discipline over several years, leaving limited room for setbacks in key markets such as China or the United States.

The second concern relates to expectations for a second-half rebound. Consensus forecasts imply around 1.2% organic sales growth, which Deutsche Bank believes relies more on favorable timing effects around Chinese New Year and easier comparisons than on a genuine recovery in demand. Management itself described the outlook for China as largely technical.

Collett also suggested that a deeper reset in profitability and shareholder returns may be required before the shares can sustain a meaningful re-rating.

The company continues to maintain its €4.70 per share dividend, though without growth, while free cash flow coverage remains tight. Gross margins are still under pressure from tariffs and higher costs for aged inventory despite a 10% reduction in structural expenses.

Jefferies, meanwhile, retains a “buy” rating with a €110 price target, pointing to the valuation discount and confidence in the company’s efficiency programme. However, that more optimistic view depends on belief in Pernod’s medium-term growth target of 3%–6%, a scenario Deutsche Bank does not currently support at prevailing share prices.

Potential upside risks include a restocking cycle in the U.S. market or policy stimulus measures in China. Until clearer signs of sustained revenue growth emerge, Deutsche Bank believes the recent rebound in the shares may have largely run its course.

Connecting Excellence Group PLC (AQSE:XCE) is taking its next step in international expansion, with shares now trading on the OTCQB in the United States under the ticker USOTC:XCELF. The move builds on the company’s existing London listing and signals a clear ambition: broaden access to U.S. investors while scaling a dual-engine business model that blends executive recruitment with a long-term Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Speaking on The Watch List, CEO Scott Ellam outlined how the company generates revenue, its growth drivers, and why leadership believes the OTCQB listing is a pivotal milestone.

A Profitable Executive Search Core

At the heart of Connecting Excellence Group is its flagship operating subsidiary, Spencer Riley, an international executive recruitment firm that has operated profitably since 2014.

The firm specializes in placing senior-level professionals, from Vice Presidents and Directors to Partner-level executives, across key global markets, including:

• United States
• United Kingdom
• Europe
• Middle East

Clients include major business advisory firms, global logistics companies, AI and data intelligence businesses, and life sciences organizations.

Revenue is generated through executive placements, creating a cash-flowing operational foundation. Importantly, this revenue stream is described as uncorrelated to the company’s Bitcoin holdings, providing diversification within the overall strategy.

A Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

While recruitment drives core income, surplus cash and capital raised in public markets are directed toward building a Bitcoin treasury.

Connecting Excellence began accumulating Bitcoin in 2021 as a private company and has continued the strategy following its public listing. After raising £3.3 million in an oversubscribed IPO on the Aquis market in the UK, the company deployed capital into additional Bitcoin purchases and introduced “XCE Bitcoin Bonds.”

Management’s stated long-term objective is to increase Bitcoin per share over time, aligning treasury growth with shareholder value creation.

Growth Through Talent Acquisition

Connecting Excellence Group’s leadership views recruitment as both a revenue engine and a strategic advantage.

As a publicly listed company with a Bitcoin treasury, Connecting Excellence Group can offer performance-based share options to attract high-performing recruitment professionals from competitors. In executive search, revenue growth is directly linked to billing talent, making recruitment of recruiters a core growth lever.

This “talent acquisition strategy” is designed to compound operational revenue while the treasury strategy compounds digital asset holdings.

Why the OTCQB Listing Matters

More than 30% of Connecting Excellence Groups operational revenues are generated from the United States and broader North American markets. Listing on the OTCQB provides:

• Easier access for U.S. retail investors
• Exposure to U.S. institutional capital
• Potentially improved liquidity and trading volume

Management has indicated plans to engage directly with U.S. institutional investors to build awareness and drive active trading, rather than allowing the U.S. listing to function merely as a secondary quote.

Leadership Built for Capital Markets Execution

Connecting Excellence Groups has assembled a board with significant capital markets and digital asset experience:

• Sam Roberts – Credited as the first person in Britain to lead a pension fund allocation to Bitcoin.
• Richard Byworth – Founder of Switzerland’s largest Bitcoin-denominated hedge fund of the past decade, holding 5,000 Bitcoin; previously led convertible bonds, futures, and derivatives trading at Nomura.
• Vijay Selvam – Former Goldman Sachs Head of Governance and author of Principles of Bitcoin; currently affiliated with a NASDAQ-listed digital asset exchange.
• Angus Gladish (CFO) – Experienced in preparing companies for main market listings.

This combination reflects Connecting Excellence Group’s hybrid model: operational recruitment expertise paired with capital markets and digital asset sophistication.

Long-Term Conviction

CEO Scott Ellam emphasized that the strategy is rooted in long-term conviction. He began personally accumulating Bitcoin in 2021, including through market drawdowns, and has continued building holdings through multiple cycles.

That consistency, according to Ellam, helped attract experienced capital markets professionals who share a multi-decade outlook for balance sheet growth and eventual main market aspirations.

Looking Ahead

With an established recruitment business, a growing Bitcoin treasury, and expanded U.S. investor access via OTCQB, Connecting Excellence Group is positioning itself as a differentiated small-cap opportunity.

The company’s roadmap includes:

• Scaling executive recruitment revenues
• Increasing Bitcoin per share
• Growing liquidity and U.S. investor participation
• Preparing for potential future main market listings

As trading begins under ticker OTCQB:XCELF, U.S. investors will now have direct access to a company aiming to blend traditional executive search profitability with a long-term digital asset treasury strategy.

For more information, investors can visit the company’s website at https://xce.io/.

Renault (EU:RNO) announced Monday that it has agreed to buy out Volvo AB’s 45% interest and CMA-CGM’s 10% stake in the Flexis electric van joint venture, taking full ownership of the business for an undisclosed consideration.

The French automaker said it has entered into a binding agreement with both Volvo AB and CMA-CGM that will allow Renault to assume complete control of Flexis and lead the project through its next development phase, including the rollout of a new lineup of fully electric light commercial vehicles.

The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to be finalized by the end of the first half of 2026. Renault added that production of the new electric vans is still scheduled to begin before the end of this year.

In a separate statement, Swedish truck manufacturer Volvo AB said it will continue to participate in the initiative as a partner and investor via Renault Trucks and plans to distribute vehicles developed under the Flexis programme starting in 2027. Volvo noted that the deal is not expected to have a material effect on its financial results.

Gold prices extended their upward momentum for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, building on last week’s rally as renewed concerns over U.S. trade tariffs and a softer U.S. dollar increased demand for safe-haven assets.

At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), spot gold rose 0.8% to $5,145.81 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 1.7% to $5,166.81 per ounce.

The precious metal had already gained more than 1% last week amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which encouraged investors to shift toward defensive assets.

New tariff measures unsettle markets

President Donald Trump announced late last week that global import tariffs would be introduced under Section 122 of U.S. trade law, initially at 10% before being increased to the maximum allowed level of 15% for a 150-day period. The move followed a U.S. Supreme Court decision that struck down a broader tariff framework previously implemented by the administration.

The announcement pressured risk-sensitive markets and prompted flows into traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. government bonds. Uncertainty surrounding how long the tariffs will remain in effect, as well as potential legal and congressional challenges, contributed to heightened market volatility.

Investors also evaluated recent U.S. macroeconomic data. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, signaling slower economic momentum compared with earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — rose 2.9% year over year in December, with core inflation hovering around 3.0%, remaining above the central bank’s 2% target.

The combination of moderating growth and persistent inflation reinforced gold’s role both as a hedge against uncertainty and a long-term store of value.

Russia reduces gold holdings

Russia reported Friday that its central bank reduced gold reserves in January, marking the first monthly decline since October.

Data released by the Bank of Russia showed holdings falling by approximately 300,000 ounces to 74.5 million ounces after bullion prices reached record highs during the month.

Silver rises while other metals show mixed performance

Elsewhere, metals markets showed mixed movements.

Silver gained 4.9% to $86.35 per ounce, while platinum slipped 0.5% to $2,165.50 per ounce.

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange edged 0.4% higher to $12,976.04 per ton, while U.S. copper futures dipped 0.1% to $5.8933 per pound.

ING analysts said, “The ruling does not affect sector specific tariffs imposed on national security grounds, including measures on aluminium, steel and copper products.” They added, “Still, LME metals moved higher as the decision reduced immediate risks to global trade flows and industrial demand. However, the upside may remain capped, given that some sector specific tariffs remain in place and the administration could pursue alternative trade measures.”

Oil prices moved lower by more than 1% on Monday as investors assessed the impact of renewed U.S. trade tensions alongside expectations for a fresh round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which could ease geopolitical risks.

Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 1%, to $71.03 per barrel by 08:49 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 75 cents, or 1.1%, to $65.73 per barrel.

“With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government,” said Tamas Varga, associate analyst at PVM Oil.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will stop collecting tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting at 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday. However, President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a temporary tariff on imports from all countries would be raised from 10% to 15% — the highest level permitted under the statute — after the Supreme Court invalidated his earlier tariff programme.

“The tariff news over the weekend has resulted in some risk aversion flows this morning, which can be viewed in the price of gold and U.S. equity futures and this is weighing on the crude oil price,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.

Attention also turned to diplomatic developments after Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed that Iran and the United States will meet in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of nuclear negotiations. Concerns over a potential military escalation had driven Brent and WTI prices more than 5% higher last week.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is willing to consider concessions on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief and formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium.

“This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a U.S. military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed,” Varga added.

Goldman Sachs said it expects the global oil market to remain oversupplied in 2026, assuming Iranian exports are not disrupted. The bank nevertheless lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts by $6, projecting Brent at $60 per barrel and WTI at $56, citing lower inventories across OECD economies.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) slipped below the $65,000 mark during Asian trading on Monday, extending recent losses as large investors continued to offload holdings while uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy further reduced appetite for risk assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 4% to $65,296.8 as of 06:30 GMT, after touching a 24-hour low of $64,384.2. Prices moved closer to levels seen in early February, when Bitcoin briefly traded below $60,000.

Broader cryptocurrency markets also weakened, with Ether facing renewed pressure after reports that founder Vitalik Buterin had reduced part of his position.

Whale activity adds selling pressure

On-chain figures from CryptoQuant showed increased transfers of Bitcoin from large private wallets — commonly known as “whales” — to major crypto exchanges, a trend often interpreted as a precursor to selling.

Whales, which typically include early adopters, institutional investors and crypto-focused funds holding significant balances, can have an outsized effect on short-term price movements when funds are moved onto trading platforms.

Such transfers usually signal potential liquidation and can weigh on prices by increasing immediately tradable supply. At the same time, buying demand appeared muted across exchanges, suggesting investor sentiment remains fragile following sharp declines earlier in the year.

Market caution intensified after renewed turbulence in U.S. trade policy. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated much of President Donald Trump’s tariff program, ruling that he exceeded his authority when imposing duties on key trading partners.

Trump later announced a temporary global tariff of 10% for 150 days before raising the rate to 15%, the maximum permitted under the statute — a move that unsettled financial markets.

The escalation pressured equities and other risk-sensitive assets across Asian markets, as investors worried that rising trade barriers could slow global economic activity and tighten liquidity conditions, both typically negative for cryptocurrencies.

Altcoins decline as Ether faces renewed selling

Other major tokens also traded lower, with Ether under particular pressure following reports of additional sales linked to Buterin.

Ether dropped nearly 5% to $1,878.63, approaching early-February lows. Over the weekend, Buterin was reported to have sold at least 1,694 Ether worth about $3.3 million. While relatively small compared with his total holdings, the transaction fueled concerns about further whale-driven selling in the market.

Among other altcoins, XRP, Solana, Cardano and BNB declined between 3% and 8%.

In the memecoin segment, Dogecoin fell 2.9%, while $TRUMP dropped 3.4%.

Economic data reinforces cautious outlook

U.S. economic data released Friday added to the cautious tone. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, highlighting slowing growth momentum, while the personal consumption expenditures price index remained elevated at 2.9% year over year.

Persistent inflation alongside moderating economic growth has complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reducing confidence that monetary easing will arrive in the near term.