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Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) extended its decline on Friday, slipping below the psychologically important $100,000 threshold as fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December weighed heavily on risk markets.

The cryptocurrency was also heading for its third weekly loss in a row, with institutional demand continuing to retreat.

By 00:00 ET, Bitcoin was down 4.2% at $97,795.5—its weakest level since May—after briefly touching an intraday low of $96,866.1.

Fed uncertainty intensifies as markets scale back December rate-cut bets

Traders sharply reduced their expectations for a December rate cut this week amid growing questions about the health of the U.S. economy.

The nearly 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which finally ended on Wednesday, created a major disruption in economic reporting. Officials have already warned that October’s inflation and employment data may not be released at all, leaving the Federal Reserve with a significant information gap heading into its December meeting.

This lack of visibility has led markets to conclude that the central bank is more likely to hold rates steady. CME’s FedWatch tool now shows the probability of a 25-bps cut at just 45.4%, down from 63.8% a week earlier.

The overall uncertainty pushed investors away from speculative trades, putting additional pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Weak institutional flows push Bitcoin toward a third week of losses

Bitcoin’s drop this week was amplified by declining institutional participation. Data from SoSoValue showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw almost $897 million in outflows on Thursday, marking their third straight week of withdrawals.

Major institutional buyers have been reluctant to re-enter the market, especially after Bitcoin spent much of October and early November stuck in a narrow consolidation range.

Altcoins fall alongside Bitcoin

Losses extended across the crypto market. Ether dropped 9.3% to $3,161.68 and was down more than 7% for the week. BNB slipped 5.4%, XRP fell 8%, and Solana and Cardano were both lower by roughly 8.5% to 9%.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin and $TRUMP each fell more than 7%.

Oil prices advanced on Friday, lifted by renewed supply concerns after a Ukrainian drone strike hit infrastructure in Novorossiysk, a key Russian export center on the Black Sea.

By 07:01 GMT, Brent crude was up 79 cents, or 1.25%, to $63.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 82 cents, or 1.38%, to $59.50. Both benchmarks had initially surged more than 2% during early Asian trading before trimming gains. For the week, Brent was slightly higher while WTI was modestly lower.

Russian officials reported that the attack caused damage to a vessel, nearby residential buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members.

June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said “Ukrainian drone attacks … have sparked new fears of oil supply flow disruptions as this port is the second largest oil export hub in Russia,” noting that the strike occurred less than two weeks after a major incident in Tuapse.

She added: “The extent of the damage is not yet known but if the pattern of escalation continues, then there would be a supply curtailment both in crude and product exports out of Russia.”

Industry data indicates that Novorossiysk handled 3.22 million tonnes of crude exports in October—around 761,000 barrels per day—and 1.794 million tonnes of oil products.

The rebound in prices comes after both Brent and WTI slid roughly 3% on Wednesday, pressured by an OPEC forecast showing global supply is likely to slightly exceed demand in 2026, a shift from previous deficit projections.

U.S. data also contributed to market volatility. The Energy Information Administration reported a sharp rise in crude stockpiles last week, with inventories climbing 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million—more than triple analysts’ expectations.

Meanwhile, investors are closely watching how newly enacted U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil firms could reshape trade flows. Washington has barred transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil after November 21 as part of broader efforts to pressure Moscow.

JPMorgan said Thursday that nearly 1.4 million barrels a day of Russian crude—almost one-third of its seaborne exports—has accumulated in floating storage as sanctions slow offloading. The bank warned that unloading could become considerably more difficult after the sanctions deadline.

Gold prices pushed higher in Asian trading on Friday, supported by renewed risk aversion as markets confronted a murky U.S. economic outlook. Still, optimism was tempered as traders continued dialing back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, limiting the metal’s advance.

The precious metal was also on course to register its first weekly rise in a month, having reclaimed the $4,000 per-ounce threshold earlier in the week. Strength spilled over into other precious metals as well.

Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $4,187.43 per ounce by 00:24 ET (05:24 GMT), while December futures eased slightly to $4,190.75 per ounce.

Safe-haven demand supports gold amid U.S. data uncertainty

Gold’s roughly 5% weekly rise reflected increased safe-haven buying as investors remained uneasy about how upcoming U.S. economic data will look—especially in the aftermath of the nearly 43-day government shutdown that only just concluded.

While official statistics are expected to resume in the coming weeks, analysts worry that the delayed releases could reveal sharper-than-expected weakness. U.S. officials also indicated on Thursday that inflation and labor market figures for October might never be released due to the shutdown’s disruption.

Other precious metals advanced as well. Spot platinum rose 0.5% to $1,593.83 per ounce, while spot silver jumped 1.1% to $52.8815 per ounce. Silver was the standout performer this week, soaring about 9% and nearing October’s record levels.

Markets trim December Fed cut expectations

The lack of reliable economic data heading into the December Federal Reserve meeting has made traders more cautious, prompting a sharp pullback in bets on a rate cut.

ANZ analysts wrote that “It may take days or even weeks for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and issue long awaited economic data. Any delays could keep Fed governors relatively cautious,” highlighting recent remarks from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly that it remained too early to judge whether a rate reduction was appropriate.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has tumbled to 45.4%, down from 64.3% a week earlier. The likelihood of no change in rates has surged to 54.6%.

The U.S. dollar drew only mild support from the recalibration in pricing, as broader worries about economic momentum continued to outweigh the rate outlook. The currency was poised for a weekly loss of around 0.4%, helping prop up precious metal prices.

The U.S. dollar firmed slightly on Friday as traders lowered expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Even with the modest uptick, the greenback remained on course to end the week lower, with investors sifting through policy signals and awaiting fresh economic data now that the government has reopened.

At 04:05 ET (09:05 GMT), the Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 99.125, though still heading toward a roughly 0.4% weekly loss.

Dollar steadies after Fed officials strike cautious tone

The currency drew limited support after several Fed policymakers reiterated concerns about easing too aggressively, pointing to lingering inflation pressures and signs that hiring remains steady.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg he opposed last month’s rate cut and remains undecided about whether to support another move in December.

Similarly, remarks from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that cutting rates too soon risked making monetary policy “overly accommodative” with inflation still elevated.

Market data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows just over a 50% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting, down from 63% the day before.

Nevertheless, many investors remain cautious about taking fresh long-dollar positions as they await delayed U.S. economic releases.

Analysts at ING noted that “while the move in the dollar fits our bearish view, it feels a bit premature and at risk of rapid reversal should the initial batch of U.S. data prove not as bad as seemingly priced in.”

Sterling slips as UK fiscal strategy comes under scrutiny

GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3172, surrendering part of its previous session’s gains against a soft dollar.

The pullback came after the Financial Times reported that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise income tax rates ahead of the November 26 budget — a major shift in policy direction.

ING commented, “It’s not clear how Reeves plans to fill the £30bn fiscal hole without touching income tax. Media reports are currently suggesting a number of options being considered. One appears to be freezing the threshold for income tax brackets, which would have a similar fiscal effect as raising the rate on one bracket and could be well received by markets.”

EUR/USD hovered at 1.1632 after touching a two-week high on Thursday. Investors now look to eurozone GDP data expected to show 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.

ING added, “EUR/USD has now entirely erased its undervaluation gap, and we now feel less confident about short-term upside unless U.S. data come in soft. We see some correction risks today, with a return below 1.160 surely possible.”

Yuan weakens after soft Chinese data; yen, aussie move higher

In Asia, USD/CNY edged up 0.1% to 7.1007 after China reported disappointing October economic indicators, including weaker industrial production and a sharper-than-expected decline in fixed-asset investment. Retail sales offered a modest upside surprise but still slowed from September.

USD/JPY ticked higher to 154.60, recovering part of Thursday’s retreat from the closely watched 155 level — an area associated with past Japanese government intervention.

AUD/USD advanced 0.6% to 0.6577 after stronger Australian labor market data reduced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver further rate cuts.

U.S. equity futures weakened again on Friday, extending the heavy losses seen on Thursday as investors reassessed tech valuations, incoming economic data, and tightening export limits on advanced chip equipment. Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMD) shook confidence further by signaling that spending on semiconductor tools in China will likely decline next year under stricter U.S. rules. Reports also indicated a small dip in jobless claims, while risk-off sentiment drove Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) sharply below $100,000.

Futures signal more weakness

At 02:49 ET, futures on the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were all trading in negative territory. The selloff followed Thursday’s steep decline, which erased optimism from earlier in the week after the government shutdown ended.

High-growth tech names continued to slide, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) leading losses. Oracle has now surrendered over a third of its value since peaking in September.

Vital Knowledge analysts wrote that “stocks suffered a steep slump thanks to continued carnage in tech as investors start throwing in the towel on a year-end rally.”

Applied Materials highlights China headwinds

Applied Materials told investors that tighter U.S. export controls blocked roughly $110 million in shipments last quarter — restrictions paused only after the Trump-Xi meeting. The company reiterated that expanded rules will cut 2026 revenue by $600 million but maintained that AI-related demand should lift sales in late 2026.

Jobless claims dip slightly

Unofficial state filings suggested first-time claims eased to around 227,000 last week. But with no official BLS data during the shutdown, markets remain in the dark. Odds of a December Fed rate cut sit near 50%.

Bitcoin tumbles

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) fell more than 6% early Friday, crossing below the $100,000 threshold and extending a multi-week decline driven by fading institutional flows.

China data disappoints

China’s October industrial output and retail sales both missed expectations, underscoring weak demand and continued pressure on manufacturers.

European equities slipped on Friday, cutting short an otherwise constructive week as investors grew more cautious about the global economic outlook and the declining odds of an additional U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end.

By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX was down 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 lost 0.5%, and London’s FTSE 100 retreated 1.1%. Even with today’s declines, all three indices remain on track to end the week higher, helped earlier by renewed risk appetite after the U.S. government reopened.

Fed rate-cut expectations scaled back

European sentiment followed Wall Street lower after the NASDAQ Composite tumbled 2.3% overnight, particularly hurt by a pullback in high-growth tech stocks as traders trimmed expectations for Fed policy easing in December and questioned stretched AI-related valuations.

Recent hawkish remarks from several Fed officials have further clouded the prospect of a December rate cut. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that the central bank has limited scope to ease without overstimulating the economy, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that policy should stay restrictive to keep inflation heading down. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari separately told Bloomberg he opposed a cut last month and remains unsure about December.

Market pricing now assigns just over a 50% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting, down from 63% the day before, CME FedWatch data shows.

Chinese slowdown adds pressure

Sentiment also softened after the release of disappointing Chinese figures. Industrial production expanded only 4.9% in October from a year earlier—the slowest pace since August 2024—while retail sales grew just 2.9%, another post-August low. The numbers point to continued soft domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy, a key market for many European exporters.

Concerns about the U.S. economy also lingered, with the government slowdown expected to dampen activity in the world’s biggest growth engine.

The eurozone’s own momentum remains lackluster: GDP data due later today are expected to show a meagre 0.2% expansion in Q3, after just 0.1% in Q2.

Allianz, Swiss Re, Richemont and Melrose report strong updates

In corporate news, Allianz (TG:ALV) raised its full-year operating profit guidance after delivering record third-quarter and nine-month results.

Swiss Re (TG:SR9) announced a $4 billion profit for the first nine months of 2025, supported by stronger underwriting in its property-and-casualty reinsurance division and reduced natural catastrophe claims.

Richemont (TG:RITN) topped expectations with quarterly sales rising 14% at constant exchange rates in July–September, even as the Swiss luxury house awaits the outcome of tariff negotiations between Switzerland and the U.S. following President Trump’s earlier announcement of steep 39% duties on Swiss imports.

Melrose Industries (LSE:MRO) said revenues increased 14% in the four months to October 31, led by robust growth in its Engines business.

Oil spikes after attack on Russian port

Oil prices jumped after a Ukrainian drone strike hit an oil depot at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude climbed 1.5% to $63.97 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures advanced 1.7% to $59.67.
Despite the rally, both benchmarks remain set for only modest weekly gains after OPEC said earlier this week that global supply is likely to slightly exceed demand in 2026, triggering a selloff.

United Utilities (LSE:UU.) posted a sharp rise in first-half earnings, powered by higher allowed revenues and continued momentum across its AMP8 investment programme. Group revenue increased 21% to £1.31 billion, reflecting regulatory uplifts including a real increase in wholesale income and a CPIH-linked rise to the revenue cap.

Underlying operating profit climbed 67% to £562 million, supported by the stronger revenue base and a higher capital allocation of infrastructure renewals expenditure, which helped ease inflationary pressure on operating costs. Underlying EPS nearly doubled year-on-year, reaching 52.8p.

The company continued to ramp up investment across the region, with net regulatory capex rising 22% to £568.5 million. Regulatory capital value expanded 6.9% to almost £16 billion. Gearing remained steady at 60%, backed by over two years of liquidity and solid credit ratings, while net debt rose modestly to £9.61 billion as AMP8 delivery accelerated. United Utilities increased its interim dividend by 3.5% to 17.88p.

Chief Executive Louise Beardmore highlighted “strong operational and financial performance” in the first half of 2026, noting continued progress on the company’s £13 billion five-year investment plan. She added that the programme is bolstering regional economic growth and supporting around 30,000 jobs across the business and its supply chain. Beardmore also pointed to environmental gains, with storm overflow spills down roughly 40% so far this year—around 10,000 fewer spills attributable to operational improvements.

Looking ahead, United Utilities expects FY26 revenue between £2.5 billion and £2.6 billion. Underlying operating costs are forecast to decline as more expenditure is capitalised. EPS for FY26 is projected to reach around 100p, while capital expenditure is set to be about £1.5 billion. Depreciation and net finance costs are both anticipated to increase by approximately £50 million due to a growing asset base and higher debt requirements.

The British pound came under pressure after reports suggested UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves may abandon previously expected income tax increases, according to analysis from ING. Markets had anticipated that higher income taxes would deliver a degree of fiscal tightening without adding to inflation, a view that had helped fuel a rally in UK gilts and supported expectations for Bank of England rate cuts in December and beyond.

The potential shift has introduced fresh uncertainty, with investors now questioning how Reeves intends to close the estimated £30 billion fiscal gap. One option reportedly under consideration is freezing income tax thresholds—a move that could generate similar fiscal tightening to raising tax rates and might be more palatable to markets.

At the time of writing, EUR/GBP was trading around 0.887. ING analysts warned that a sharp sell-off in gilts could widen the pound’s risk premium and push the cross above 0.890. Even so, the bank does not interpret the latest developments as a sign that Reeves is straying from her broader commitment to fiscal discipline. Historically, the government has acted quickly to reassure investors when gilt markets have reacted unfavourably.

While near-term downside risks for sterling have risen, ING expects the current EUR/GBP upswing to partially unwind as conditions stabilize.

Foresight Group (LSE:FSG), a regional private equity and real assets investor, has announced a new investment in Mclaggan + Co, joining existing shareholder N4 Partners. Mclaggan, known for more than five decades of collaboration with artists and designers, produces screen-printed, decorated, and kiln-fired bone china mugs and other ceramics from its facility near Loch Lomond. The company has reported strong growth in recent years as it expanded its giftware portfolio, earning a reputation for high-quality products.

Foresight’s investment will fund Mclaggan’s strategic acquisition of Customworks, a giftware business founded in 1997 with operations in Bo’ness and Malaga. Customworks brings a complementary range of bespoke products, including items designed for museums, galleries, and heritage attractions, broadening Mclaggan’s offering and strengthening its presence in key customer segments.

The acquisition is expected to accelerate growth for both businesses by supporting expansion into new markets and product lines. The combined group will employ more than 100 people and anticipates further acquisitions as part of its longer-term development strategy. Leadership will be overseen by Executive Chair Keith Mitchell, with Brian Macpherson stepping in as CEO.

“This is an exciting investment, and we look forward to working with the teams at Mclaggan and Customworks to build on their success and support further growth,” said Harry Staples, Investment Manager at Foresight Group. “We are committed to backing high-potential companies across Scotland, and this deal demonstrates our ability to provide flexible funding and exit solutions.”

Executive Chair Keith Mitchell added: “Partnering with Foresight marks an important milestone for both companies. With their support, we are well positioned to accelerate growth, enhance operational capability, and deliver long-term value for customers, employees, and stakeholders.”

Land Securities Group (LSE:LAND) reported a strong set of interim results for the half year to 30 September 2025, delivering solid income growth despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. EPRA earnings per share rose 3.2% to 25.8 pence, supported by a 5.2% like-for-like increase in net rental income and a 6% reduction in overhead costs. This performance allowed the company to raise its interim dividend by 2.2% to 19.0 pence.

Portfolio metrics remained resilient, with occupancy improving 40 basis points to 97.7%—its highest level in nearly a decade. Rental uplifts on relettings and renewals averaged 10%, underscoring the group’s reversionary potential. “We continue to see clear positive momentum across every part of our business, notwithstanding the wider economic environment. Owning the right real estate has never been more important,” said Chief Executive Mark Allan.

Landsec has upgraded its like-for-like net rental income growth guidance for FY26 to around 4–5%, up from 3–4%, and now expects EPRA EPS growth to come in at the upper end of its 2–4% range, excluding the effects of the Queen Anne’s Mansions disposal. The company continued its capital recycling programme during the period, completing £644 million of disposals—mainly lower-returning assets—which resulted in a £67 million loss on sale and a 1.3% decline in EPRA Net Tangible Assets per share.

Medium-term earnings prospects have also improved. Landsec now targets EPS of approximately 62 pence by FY30, implying 4–4.5% compound annual growth from FY25, driven by stronger retail income growth, additional overhead efficiencies, and reduced development exposure.

Operationally, the office portfolio delivered 6.8% like-for-like rental growth with occupancy at 98.8%, while the retail-led segment achieved 5.0% rental growth alongside a 7.7% increase in retail sales. The group now aims to cut its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to below 7x within two years—tightening its previous goal of below 8x—and expects its loan-to-value ratio to trend below 35% over time.