Aviva Plc (LSE:AV.) reported a strong rise in wealth inflows during the first quarter of 2026, although weaker-than-expected general insurance premiums weighed on the overall performance. Goldman Sachs described the update as “a bit of a mixed bag.”
Wealth net flows for the three months to 31 March reached £3.35 billion, representing a 49% increase year on year and exceeding Goldman Sachs forecasts of £2.67 billion by around 25%.
According to Goldman Sachs data, workplace pension flows climbed 71% year on year to £1.99 billion, while platform net flows increased 24% to £1.59 billion.
In contrast, total general insurance gross written premiums came in at £3.43 billion, approximately 8% below the Goldman Sachs estimate of £3.72 billion.
UK commercial lines premiums fell 8% year on year to £834 million and were 6% below Goldman Sachs expectations of £887 million. Aviva said the decline reflected “deliberate underwriting actions to manage profitability in softer market conditions.”
UK personal lines gross written premiums totalled £1.53 billion, falling 14% short of Goldman Sachs estimates of £1.78 billion. However, Goldman Sachs noted that part of the variance related to its own assumptions regarding the quarterly split of Direct Line figures.
In Canada, gross written premiums of £907 million came in slightly ahead of expectations, exceeding the Goldman Sachs forecast of £897 million by 1%.
The UK undiscounted combined operating ratio was reported at 94.8%, which was 80 basis points weaker than Goldman Sachs projections. By comparison, Canada’s COR of 91.8% outperformed forecasts by 2.5 percentage points against Goldman Sachs expectations of 94.3%.
Aviva reiterated its full-year guidance, continuing to target a UK and Ireland combined operating ratio below 94% and a Canada COR approaching 94%.
Within retirement operations, bulk purchase annuity flows totalled £619 million, comfortably ahead of the Goldman Sachs estimate of £260 million. However, the value of new business margin in retirement came in at 1.2%, below Goldman Sachs expectations of 3.5% by 2.3 percentage points.
Aviva stated that internal rates of return of at least low teens had been achieved, while Citi noted the annuity and equity release margin was “reflecting volume pressure.”
Protection and health annual premium equivalent sales reached £113 million, 6% below the Goldman Sachs estimate of £120 million. Value of new business in protection and health declined 16% to £54 million, compared with Citi forecasts of £62 million.
The company’s Solvency II ratio stood at 171%, broadly matching expectations from both Goldman Sachs and Citi. Aviva said it expects the ratio to exceed 180% by the end of 2026.
Following the update, Goldman Sachs reduced its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2030 by an average of approximately 0.7% and lowered its 12-month price target by around 1% to 756 pence.
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