Citi has maintained an aggressive bullish outlook for silver, forecasting that prices could reach $90 an ounce within six to 12 months as investor flows become the dominant force in the market. Although structural changes in solar technology could weaken one major source of industrial consumption, the bank believes monetary conditions, geopolitical developments and continuing physical demand provide scope for substantial further gains.
Citi keeps $75 and $90 silver forecasts
Citi left its point-price forecasts unchanged, targeting silver at $75 per ounce over a zero-to-three-month period and $90 over the next six to 12 months.
With spot silver around $65 per ounce, the longer-term forecast implies significant additional upside.
The bank expects a “continued recovery in investment demand,” which could increasingly determine price movements even as the outlook for some industrial applications becomes less favourable.
Citi’s forecast therefore depends less on accelerating industrial consumption and more on investors increasing their allocations to precious metals.
Silver could amplify gains in gold
Silver’s relationship with gold is an important element of the forecast.
Citi expects the metal to “continue to track gold in direction with high beta,” potentially allowing silver to deliver larger percentage gains during a precious-metals rally.
The firm consequently views silver as “an ideal upside play” if geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are resolved quickly.
Citi’s base case anticipates de-escalation potentially “as soon as September-December,” which could alter the macroeconomic environment currently influencing precious-metal markets.
Fed shift could remove key silver headwinds
Higher real interest rates and a strong dollar have created a difficult backdrop for silver.
A less hawkish Federal Reserve could begin to reverse those pressures.
If real yields decline and the dollar weakens, precious metals may become more attractive to investors seeking alternative stores of value and portfolio diversification.
Citi believes that shift, combined with reduced geopolitical uncertainty, could trigger stronger investment flows into silver.
Those flows could become the primary catalyst behind the move towards the bank’s $90 target.
Solar technology creates industrial challenge
The industrial side of Citi’s outlook is less uniformly bullish.
Solar manufacturing has become an important source of global silver consumption, but producers are increasingly reducing the amount of metal used in individual cells.
This thrifting trend is being reinforced by the development of back-contact solar technology.
Citi expects BC adoption to accelerate and believes it could become a leading solar technology by 2028.
The transition could structurally reduce the amount of silver required by the photovoltaic sector, limiting one source of demand growth.
Technology demand helps offset solar weakness
Other emerging technologies could partially compensate for the weaker solar outlook.
Citi expects artificial intelligence, 5G infrastructure and electric vehicles to continue generating resilient demand for silver.
The metal’s electrical and conductive properties make it important across a range of advanced technology applications, providing broader industrial support beyond photovoltaics.
Combined with constrained supply, these sources of consumption are expected to keep the global silver market in deficit through 2027.
India emerges as important physical-demand driver
Indian buyers are also providing notable support to the market.
Citi pointed to an approximately 7% domestic premium for silver in India, signalling strong underlying physical demand.
The bank expects buying to strengthen during the fourth quarter as the country’s festive and wedding season increases consumption.
That physical demand provides another layer of support alongside potential investment inflows from financial markets.
$90 target increasingly depends on investors
Citi’s outlook suggests the next stage of silver’s rally could look different from earlier phases driven heavily by industrial consumption.
Solar demand may become less supportive, but AI, 5G and electric vehicles should continue providing an industrial foundation while the global market remains in deficit.
The bigger catalyst could come from investors.
If Federal Reserve policy becomes less hawkish, geopolitical tensions ease and silver continues to outperform gold during precious-metal rallies, Citi believes prices could first reach $75 before advancing towards $90 an ounce over the next six to 12 months.
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