Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) first foldable iPhone could generate approximately $14 billion in December-quarter revenue, according to Morgan Stanley, which expects the new device to represent the company’s largest iPhone form-factor change since the iPhone X.
“Apple’s first foldable iPhone is the biggest iPhone form-factor change since iPhone X,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote ahead of the company’s scheduled Sept. 9 event.
Morgan Stanley forecasts production of 7 million to 8 million units during the second half of 2026 and as many as 20 million units across the device’s initial product cycle. The bank expects demand initially to exceed available supply.
Pricing will also be a focus for the launch. Morgan Stanley expects the largest like-for-like iPhone price increases in years, with Woodring citing higher NAND and DRAM costs as factors expected to push Pro-model prices more than $200 higher year over year.
For the iPhone 18 Pro, Woodring said the main expected upgrade is a move to TSMC’s 2nm manufacturing process, which is expected to increase the device’s on-device AI performance.
Morgan Stanley said Apple appears “more focused on securing enough components than finding enough buyers,” while noting that memory availability could restrict near-term production.
“The event will prove to be anything but ordinary,” wrote Woodring. “This is because for the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not headline the event; instead, new CEO John Ternus will lead the company into its first major iPhone form factor change in nearly 10 years, unveiling the much-anticipated iPhone Fold (Ultra?), alongside what are likely to be the broadest, and most significant, like-for-like iPhone price hikes in company history.”
The bank expects the base iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2 to arrive later, with neither model anticipated until the spring.
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