Evercore expects banks to provide third-quarter investment banking and trading guidance below consensus forecasts after quarter-to-date capital markets indicators tracked behind expectations.
The firm’s August 2026 Capital Markets Monthly report showed investment banking volumes declining 6% year over year during July, reflecting lower debt capital markets activity despite increases in equity issuance and mergers and acquisitions.
Debt capital markets and syndicated lending volumes declined 18% from the prior-year period. Equity capital markets activity, meanwhile, increased 119%, and M&A volumes rose 11%.
Trading activity showed improvement following a slower July. Evercore said most fixed income, currencies and commodities indicators were tracking at low- to high-double-digit year-over-year growth rates for the quarter to date.
Foreign exchange and commodities volumes each increased 17% year over year, while credit activity rose 10% and rates volumes increased 2%.
Equity-market indicators presented a mixed picture. CBOE volumes were 4% lower than a year earlier, while retail trading activity increased 43% and options activity rose 14%.
Average margin balances were up 32% year over year on a quarter-to-date basis. Evercore said balances remained stable despite some deleveraging associated with artificial intelligence during July.
Based on the quarter-to-date indicators, the firm said third-quarter earnings-per-share estimates may be higher than current activity levels imply.
Evercore expects investment banking and trading guidance to come in below consensus, while guidance or commentary on wealth management and trust fees is expected to be in line with or slightly below forecasts.
The firm also said investors appear aware of the slower quarterly trends, with share prices and valuation multiples adjusting against weaker data and increases in interest rates and oil prices.
Broader equity markets increased 3%, while fixed income markets were unchanged month over month. Average H.8 loan and deposit balances each rose 6% compared with the prior year.
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