Citi and ANZ have revised their Brent crude oil forecasts higher as the banks assess continuing disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.
Citi now forecasts Brent at $86 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026. The bank said the current conditions, including the U.S. blockade of Iran and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, are unsustainable.
The bank expects renewed dealmaking or other developments to result in the Strait reopening during the fourth quarter.
According to Citi, restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz would leave the global oil market with an estimated surplus of 3 million to 4 million barrels per day. Its previous estimate was approximately 2 million barrels per day.
ANZ has meanwhile increased its short-term Brent forecast to $95 per barrel as it assesses the effects of declining inventories.
The bank said the market is moving into a delicate adaptation phase and expects further demand destruction will be necessary for inventories to rebuild.
ANZ estimates that between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion barrels of Persian Gulf supply will be removed from the market during 2026 as a result of the conflict.
According to the bank’s estimates, cumulative losses will exceed 2 billion barrels by the end of October.
The forecasts from Citi and ANZ incorporate different assumptions about the duration and scale of Middle East supply disruptions, including future developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz.
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