Jefferies said Hong Kong resale market data for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro series is weaker than comparable data for the previous generation, while delivery lead times across major markets are providing mixed indications.
The broker said almost every storage version of the iPhone 18 Pro was trading below Apple’s official price. Resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max also declined substantially on launch day and have subsequently remained low or fallen further.
Among the Pro Max models, the 256GB version continued to trade at a premium of approximately 8% to its official price. Jefferies said the higher-capacity versions were performing differently, with the 2TB model priced HK$1,049 below Apple’s official price as of 5 p.m. on September 27.
The analysts cited price increases of $400 and $500 as one potential factor behind the resale performance, saying the increases may exceed the additional value perceived by some consumers.
Jefferies also highlighted Apple’s move from TLC to lower-cost QLC NAND for the 1TB and 2TB models. The broker said the storage change could make those configurations less attractive to buyers focused on storage performance.
Compared with the equivalent stage of the iPhone 17 Pro Max launch last year, resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max were lower across every storage configuration except the 256GB model as of September 27.
Lead-Time Data Varies Across Markets
Jefferies said delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max declined across most markets early in the previous week before extending again towards the weekend.
The broker said the rebound in lead times does not necessarily indicate higher demand, as it could be related to tighter supply while Apple increases production of its DUO device ahead of deliveries beginning October 23.
For the iPhone 18 Pro Max, lead times were longer year over year in Hong Kong, China and the United States as of September 27. They were shorter in Britain and Germany and unchanged in Japan.
The iPhone 18 Pro had longer lead times in Hong Kong and China, shorter waits in the United States and Germany, and unchanged lead times in Britain and Japan.
China eSIM Limit Could Affect DUO Adoption
Jefferies also examined potential demand considerations for DUO, which is scheduled to open for pre-orders on October 16.
The device is eSIM-only and supports two eSIM numbers in China, compared with as many as eight numbers on compatible iPhones in Hong Kong. Jefferies said the difference could be relevant for Chinese customers who maintain separate numbers for personal, professional and travel purposes.
Users who reach the two-number limit and subsequently need a travel eSIM may have to suspend a domestic number through an in-person visit to their mobile operator, according to the broker. Restoring that number would require a further visit.
Jefferies said the restrictions may not materially affect initial buyers but could have greater relevance as the product reaches a broader customer base. The broker also noted that some consumers may consider the possibility of a second-generation regular-sized Apple foldable arriving in 2027.
Jefferies maintained its Underperform rating on Apple, with the report citing a share price of $341.07.
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