Oil prices recovered from earlier losses on Monday as investors assessed the impact of attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz alongside US President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional Russian diesel supplies.
Brent crude futures for December delivery increased by 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $105.41 per barrel by 09:23 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 57 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.42 per barrel.
The gains followed renewed concerns about energy supplies from the Middle East, where attacks on transport infrastructure and commercial shipping have continued.
The Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Additional attacks were reported on Sunday.
Security concerns also increased around the Strait of Hormuz, where further incidents involving oil tankers have been reported this month.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar, Oman, while another vessel sustained damage while travelling through the strait.
The incidents raised questions about the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports recorded during September, as continued attacks could disrupt shipping operations.
Goldman Sachs revised its December Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, incorporating an estimated geopolitical risk premium of slightly more than $20 per barrel.
The bank also provided forecasts for US crude prices, citing the unusually wide difference between WTI and Brent.
“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Separately, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to return personnel to offshore facilities and resume production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall early on Saturday.
Russian Diesel Announcement Weighs on Gasoil Futures
European gasoil futures declined 4.3% to $1,419.50 per metric tonne after Trump announced on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and international markets.
The proposed shipments represent approximately 2.25 million barrels, with the president indicating that additional volumes could become available later.
However, analysts questioned Russia’s capacity to increase exports following repeated attacks on its refining infrastructure.
“The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia’s refining capacity has been severely reduced,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.
“However, Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market —equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand.”
The reported partial easing of Russia’s export restrictions could make additional diesel available internationally, although refinery disruptions remain a constraint on potential shipments.
Trump also announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting details of the proposed arrangement, while Moscow had not commented.
The announcement therefore remained unconfirmed by both sides, leaving uncertainty over whether attacks on energy infrastructure would be suspended.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol also called on member countries to assess whether further releases of diesel supplies were necessary.
Birol urged countries that had not yet delivered their pledged volumes to accelerate releases, giving priority to diesel.
Oil markets consequently faced two competing developments: the possibility of additional Russian fuel supplies and continuing risks to energy shipments from the Middle East.
The timing and scale of any increase in Russian diesel exports remain uncertain, while attacks on regional shipping routes and energy infrastructure continue to affect supply expectations.
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