TotalEnergies (LSE:TTE) expects a substantial increase in third-quarter 2026 downstream earnings and cash flow after European refining margins rose to almost four times their level a year earlier, supported by higher energy prices and increased refining activity.
The French energy group said its European refining margin indicator averaged $33.20 per barrel during the quarter, compared with $8.40 in the corresponding period of 2025.
Cash flow from refining and chemicals operations is expected to increase by approximately $2 billion compared with the second quarter, reflecting higher refining margins and a 10% increase in refinery throughput.
TotalEnergies said the increase in processing volumes allowed the group to benefit from « historically high refining margins in Europe and worldwide ».
Oil trading performance remained strong, with results expected to be broadly consistent with those achieved during the previous two quarters. The company also anticipates continued strong performance from its Marketing & Services division.
LNG Earnings Expected to Increase as Gas Prices Rise
TotalEnergies expects earnings from its Integrated LNG division to increase significantly during the third quarter, supported by higher liquefied natural gas prices and favourable trading conditions.
The company reported that average LNG prices increased by approximately 20% compared with the second quarter.
TotalEnergies attributed the stronger market conditions partly to the prolonged conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased natural gas demand during the winter.
Gas and LNG trading activities also benefited from higher market prices during the period.
The group’s average realised LNG price reached $12.28 per million British thermal units, compared with $8.91 in the third quarter of 2025.
Average gas prices increased to $7.00 from $5.50 over the same period.
The company expects these developments to contribute to higher earnings across its integrated gas operations.
Hydrocarbon Production Forecast at Up to 2.5 Million Barrels Per Day
TotalEnergies expects third-quarter hydrocarbon production of between 2.45 million and 2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
This compares with production of approximately 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the second quarter.
The company said disruption associated with the Middle East conflict now affects approximately 5% of its total production.
Excluding the impact of the conflict, hydrocarbon output is expected to increase by more than 4% compared with the corresponding period last year.
That rate exceeds TotalEnergies’ annual production growth guidance of 3%.
The expected quarterly increase reflects higher production from the group’s operations outside the areas affected by the conflict.
Oil and Gas Prices Remain Above Year-Earlier Levels
TotalEnergies reported substantially higher average realised hydrocarbon prices compared with the third quarter of 2025.
Brent crude averaged $97.00 per barrel during the period, approximately 40% higher than the $69.10 recorded a year earlier.
However, the quarterly average was below the $103.80 per barrel recorded during the second quarter of 2026.
The group’s average realised liquids price increased to $87.10 per barrel, compared with $66.50 in the corresponding period last year.
Meanwhile, the average LNG price rose to $12.28 per million British thermal units from $8.91, while the average gas price increased to $7.00 from $5.50.
The higher year-on-year prices are expected to support earnings and cash generation across TotalEnergies’ upstream and integrated gas businesses.
Integrated Power Cash Flow Forecast at $750 Million to $800 Million
TotalEnergies expects its Integrated Power division to generate cash flow of between $750 million and $800 million during the third quarter.
The forecast includes a full quarter of contributions from TTEP, the company’s joint venture with EPH.
The group also expects a positive working capital contribution of approximately $3 billion during the period.
The anticipated working capital inflow, together with stronger refining and LNG operations, is expected to contribute to the group’s overall quarterly cash generation.
TotalEnergies is scheduled to publish its full third-quarter financial results on 29 October 2026, when it will provide further details of divisional earnings, cash flow and financial performance.
About TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies (LSE:TTE) is a French international energy company operating across oil and gas exploration and production, refining, petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas, energy trading and electricity generation.
The group’s activities include upstream hydrocarbon production, refining and chemicals, Marketing & Services, Integrated LNG and Integrated Power.
Its financial performance is influenced by global oil and gas prices, refining margins, production volumes, energy trading conditions and electricity market developments.
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