Traffic generated by artificial intelligence tools is expected to become a larger source of referrals for US online retailers during the holiday shopping period, with Adobe forecasting a 130% year-over-year increase.
Adobe expects AI-driven retail traffic to rise 159% on Thanksgiving, 95% on Black Friday and 88% on Cyber Monday. Those rates compare with projected growth of 4% for paid search and 17% for social media referrals.
Consumer use of AI for product research and comparison is also increasing, according to Adobe’s data. A July survey involving 5,000 consumers found that 77% of respondents who had used AI while shopping online said it increased their confidence in purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, 69% said it reduced the likelihood that they would return purchases.
Cyber Week Sales Forecast to Reach $47.5 Billion
Adobe projects total US online spending of $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, an increase of 6.7% from the previous year.
Of that amount, $47.5 billion is expected to be spent during Cyber Week, covering the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. That would represent growth of 7.4% and approximately 17% of total seasonal spending.
Cyber Monday sales are forecast at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%, while Black Friday is expected to record faster growth of 9.2%, taking spending to $12.9 billion.
Thanksgiving spending is projected to increase 8.5% to $6.9 billion. Adobe expects mobile devices to generate 63% of online spending that day, which would represent a record share.
Discounts are expected to reach approximately 30% below listed prices during Cyber Week, with electronics, apparel and appliances among the categories offering larger reductions.
BNPL Spending Forecast at $21.3 Billion
Buy Now, Pay Later transactions are expected to account for $21.3 billion of online spending during November and December, up 6.6% year over year.
Adobe forecasts $1.09 billion in BNPL spending on Cyber Monday and $807 million on Black Friday. Cyber Monday would therefore exceed $1 billion in BNPL spending for a second consecutive year.
Mobile devices are expected to generate 57.4% of overall holiday e-commerce spending and 82% of BNPL transactions.
Electronics are forecast to remain the largest product category, generating $63.3 billion of sales, an increase of 5.9%. Apparel sales are projected at $51.3 billion, up 4.7%.
Grocery spending is expected to record 10.3% growth to $26.1 billion, while furniture sales are forecast to increase 7.3% to $33.4 billion.
Adobe also expects consumers to make some holiday purchases before November. October online spending is forecast to rise 8% to $95.8 billion, including $9.9 billion during the October 6-7 Prime Day event.
Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5 and PS5 Pro, Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro, Meta AI Glasses and AirPods Pro 3 are among the products Adobe expects to record sales during the holiday period.
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