Author: Fiona Craig

Jefferies has raised its recommendation on Hermès International SCA (EU:RMS) to “buy” from “hold” and lifted its price target to €2,400 from €2,250. The brokerage pointed to Hermès’ exposure to higher-spending luxury clients and a margin profile that stands out versus peers.

The rating change comes against what Jefferies described as an increasingly uneven backdrop for the global luxury industry, where spending trends are being driven more by wealth concentration than by a broad-based recovery in consumer demand.

Hermès sits firmly in what Jefferies defines as the “ultra-luxury” segment, alongside Ferrari and Brunello Cucinelli. Within this cohort, the broker said Hermès has a particularly strong tilt toward very important and very very important clients, with China standing out as a key market. Jefferies also flagged early signs of stabilization in China’s quota ratios as supportive of its more positive stance.

For valuation, Jefferies applies a 2027 calendar-year price-to-earnings multiple of 46.0x, compared with a post-pandemic average CY2 PE of 44.3x. Based on the new €2,400 target, the shares offer a potential upside of 14.4% from current levels. While the stock trades at a premium to much of the sector, Jefferies attributes this to Hermès’ superior and more resilient profitability.

The broker forecasts Hermès’ EBIT margin at 40% in 2026 and 40.2% in 2027, comfortably above most listed luxury peers. Underlying EBIT for 2026 is estimated at €6.80 billion, up 6.8% year on year, with group net profit projected at €5.05 billion, representing growth of 12.6%.

Jefferies expects diluted earnings per share of €47.55 in 2026, increasing to €52.12 in 2027. Dividends per share are forecast at €28.53 for 2026 and €31.27 for 2027.

According to the brokerage, Hermès’ valuation tends to track profitability more closely than near-term total shareholder return expectations. In cross-sector comparisons, the group ranks near the top on both EBIT margins and valuation multiples, which Jefferies said reflects its strong exposure to wealthy consumers during a period of uneven global wealth creation.

Jefferies added that demand-side dynamics remain the main engine of growth in the luxury sector, rather than supply-driven initiatives. In that context, Hermès’ client base is more concentrated in regions and income brackets that continue to benefit from rising equity markets.

The report notes that the Asia-Pacific region accounts for around 35% of Hermès’ sales in China and 24% in APAC excluding China, broadly in line with sector averages, but with a greater skew toward higher-spending customers.

ECR Minerals (LSE:ECR) has commenced its production plan at the fully permitted Raglan alluvial gold project in central Queensland, taking the company into initial gold production and the early stages of cash flow generation.

Operational and financial highlights

The site team has identified priority areas for trenching and is optimising mining and processing equipment, with particular focus on the 60 tonnes-per-hour wash plant. The company also plans to revisit previously mined areas at greater depth, aiming to replicate the strong 91.7% gold recovery rates achieved at the nearby Blue Mountain project. Members of the board are travelling to Queensland to oversee commissioning activities, assess early grade performance and hold discussions with a potential off-taker covering production from both Raglan and Blue Mountain.

Raglan benefits from existing, turnkey infrastructure and a low-capital development pathway, which management believes will allow operational synergies with Blue Mountain. Early cash flow from these projects is expected to help fund further work at the larger Lolworth gold-silver project and support ECR’s transition from a pure exploration business to an operating gold producer in Queensland and Victoria. The move comes against a backdrop of historically high gold and silver prices, which management sees as supportive of the strategy.

More about ECR Minerals

ECR Minerals plc is a gold exploration and development company with projects in Australia, operating through three wholly owned subsidiaries across Queensland and Victoria. Its portfolio includes the Bailieston, Creswick and Tambo gold projects in Victoria, alongside the Raglan and Blue Mountain alluvial gold operations and the large-scale Lolworth gold-silver exploration area in Queensland. Together, these assets position ECR as an emerging regional gold producer with ongoing exploration upside and significant accumulated tax losses in Australia.

S4 Capital (LSE:SFOR) has reported full-year trading for 2025 that came in ahead of the downgraded guidance issued in November and exceeded current market expectations for both net revenue and operational EBITDA. This performance was delivered despite a like-for-like net revenue decline of around 8.5%, with operational EBITDA margins settling at approximately 12%.

Operational and financial highlights

The group made notable progress in strengthening its balance sheet, with net debt now expected to be materially lower than previously forecast. Leverage is projected at roughly 1.1 times operational EBITDA, comfortably below the company’s target ceiling of 1.5 times. Reflecting this improvement and management’s confidence in the business trajectory, S4 Capital has proposed a final dividend of 1p per share.

While the year-end outcome was better than anticipated, the company acknowledged that further work is required to rebuild sustainable revenue and margin growth from 2026 onwards. Client spending remains cautious amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment, and the group continues to adapt its offering to reflect the increasing adoption of emerging technologies across marketing and advertising services.

From an investment perspective, the outlook remains mixed. Revenue volatility, recent losses and historically elevated leverage continue to weigh on the fundamental picture. However, share price technicals are supportive, with an established uptrend, although momentum indicators appear stretched. Valuation signals are also mixed, with a negative P/E ratio offset in part by a dividend yield of around 4.5%. Management commentary points to improving cash generation and debt metrics, but with ongoing pressure on top-line growth and margins.

More about S4 Capital

S4 Capital plc is a digital-only advertising and marketing services group serving global, multinational, regional and local clients, as well as influencer-led and digitally native brands. The business operates a unitary model that integrates marketing and technology services, employing around 6,300 people across 33 countries. Approximately 80% of net revenue is generated in the Americas, with the remainder split between Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific, as the group works toward a more balanced long-term geographic mix.

Rockfire Resources (LSE:ROCK) has restarted diamond drilling at its wholly owned Molaoi zinc project in Greece, as part of efforts to upgrade the existing JORC Inferred Mineral Resource to Indicated category. The latest drilling has confirmed that mineralisation extends further south and remains open in that direction.

Operational and financial highlights

The fourth drill hole of the current campaign, HMO-011, returned encouraging portable XRF results, identifying multiple narrow but high-grade intervals containing zinc, silver, lead and barium. The presence of barium supports the company’s evolving geological interpretation, pointing to an epithermal overprint on a volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) system.

Alongside drilling, Rockfire is progressing a range of technical workstreams aimed at de-risking the project. These include hydrology and ecological studies, the engagement of SLR Consulting to refine the mineralisation model, and the evaluation of geophysical survey options. Together, these steps are intended to support future feasibility studies and advance Molaoi toward development readiness.

From an investment standpoint, the outlook remains constrained by weak financial fundamentals, with the company currently pre-revenue, loss-making and generating negative free cash flow. Market technicals also remain subdued, with the share price trading below key moving averages. Valuation indicators offer limited support, reflecting ongoing losses and the absence of dividend yield.

More about Rockfire Resources

Rockfire Resources plc is a London-listed exploration company focused on gold, base metals and critical minerals. Its flagship asset is the high-grade Molaoi zinc, lead, silver and germanium deposit in Greece, which hosts a JORC Inferred Mineral Resource of 15 million tonnes grading 7.26% zinc, 1.75% lead and 39.5 g/t silver. In addition, the company holds a portfolio of gold, copper and silver projects in Queensland, Australia, including the Plateau and Marengo projects, which are being advanced through farm-in arrangements with ASX-listed partners.

Costain (LSE:COST) has agreed revised terms for its defined benefit pension scheme, removing a long-standing dividend parity restriction and eliminating the requirement for additional cash contributions through to 2031. The change releases capital to support enhanced shareholder returns, reflecting the company’s strengthened balance sheet, pension scheme surplus and robust trading performance in FY25.

Operational and financial highlights

On the back of its improved financial position, the board plans to adopt a new dividend policy targeting 3.0x cover. This shift is expected to almost double cash dividends in FY26. In addition, Costain intends to launch a £20 million share buyback programme next year, while continuing to assess its capital structure for the potential of further shareholder distributions.

Operationally, FY25 trading is expected to be in line with market profit forecasts. Adjusted operating margins are anticipated to exceed the group’s 4.5% target, while year-end net cash is projected at around £190 million, ahead of consensus expectations, supported in part by favourable working capital timing.

The group has also secured a number of significant long-duration contract wins, most notably its appointment as a utilities delivery partner at Sellafield under a framework valued at up to £1 billion over 15 years. Additional awards across nuclear and highways further underpin management’s confidence in continued progress during FY26, with expectations of a more pronounced improvement in performance from FY27 onwards.

From an investment perspective, Costain’s outlook is supported by a solid financial base, positive share price technicals and supportive corporate developments. While operating margins remain relatively modest and cash flow efficiency has shown some softening, valuation appears reasonable and recent contract momentum strengthens the overall investment case.

More about Costain

Costain Group PLC is a UK-based infrastructure solutions provider delivering complex engineering and construction projects across the transport, water, energy and defence sectors. The company focuses on providing predictable, sustainable and digitally enabled solutions that support a more resilient, connected and decarbonised UK infrastructure network.

Spire Healthcare (LSE:SPI) has confirmed that it is in preliminary discussions with private equity groups Bridgepoint Advisers and Triton Investment Advisers, following media speculation around potential interest in the business. The talks form part of the strategic review the company initiated in September 2025.

Operational and financial highlights

The company stressed that discussions remain at an early stage and may or may not result in a formal takeover proposal. Under UK takeover regulations, both Bridgepoint and Triton face a deadline of 21 February 2026 to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or confirm that they do not intend to proceed. While the situation raises the prospect of meaningful corporate change, there is currently no certainty around outcomes for shareholders, employees or other stakeholders.

From a fundamentals perspective, Spire’s investment case is supported by solid revenue growth and improvements in operational efficiency. However, elevated leverage and relatively low net profitability remain key areas of concern. Market technicals point to bearish momentum in the shares, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may already be pricing in a degree of optimism.

More about Spire Healthcare

Spire Healthcare Group is one of the UK’s leading independent healthcare providers, operating 38 hospitals alongside more than 50 clinics, medical centres and consulting rooms across England, Wales and Scotland. The group also runs private GP and occupational health services for over 800 corporate clients and works with more than 8,700 consultants, delivering care to over one million patients each year. It is the UK’s largest private provider of knee and hip operations by volume and offers a mix of private and NHS services, including mental health, musculoskeletal and dermatology care through its Vita Health Group brand. Spire is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250 index.

Cloudbreak Discovery PLC (LSE:CDL) has released new surface assay results from its Crofton Gold Project in Western Australia, confirming the presence of very high-grade gold and meaningful silver mineralisation. The results come from a broad area of quartz veining measuring approximately 1 km by 4 km within the Yilgalong granite intrusion.

Operational and financial highlights

Recent multi-element and fire assay testing returned gold grades of up to 142 g/t alongside silver values reaching 175 g/t. In addition, Photon Assay analysis validated earlier sampling, with gold grades exceeding 160 g/t. The combined datasets support historic high-grade results and suggest that silver mineralisation occurs both in association with gold-bearing structures and as a standalone component within the system.

The findings materially strengthen the geological case for Crofton hosting potentially economic, vein-style gold and silver mineralisation. Cloudbreak plans to move quickly into follow-up exploration, including more systematic surface geochemical sampling, to refine targets and advance the project. The company highlighted that the results come at a time of strong underlying gold and silver prices, adding strategic relevance to near-term exploration efforts.

From an investment perspective, the outlook remains constrained by weak financial fundamentals. The company is pre-revenue, with ongoing losses, continued cash burn and negative equity reported in 2025. Technical indicators also present a modest headwind, with a negative MACD signal and the share price trading below key short- to medium-term moving averages. Valuation support is limited by a negative price-to-earnings ratio and the absence of dividend yield.

More about Cloudbreak Discovery

Cloudbreak Discovery PLC is a London-listed mineral exploration company focused on gold, precious metals and base metals, primarily in Western Australia. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the group follows a multi-asset, generative exploration model aimed at progressing high-potential commodity projects toward near-term cash flow while seeking to build long-term shareholder value.

Gulf Marine Services (LSE:GMS) has agreed to acquire a new mid-class self-elevating support vessel, marking its first fleet addition in a decade and increasing total vessels in operation to 15. The purchase is intended to support strong demand across offshore energy markets and aligns with management’s longer-term objective of doubling adjusted EBITDA from 2024 levels by 2030.

Operational and financial highlights

The acquisition is being funded through a combination of cash and a US$37.4 million short-term loan provided by an existing member of the group’s lending syndicate. Following completion, net leverage is expected to remain below 2.0x, preserving balance sheet flexibility. Management noted that the vessel has already been aligned with identified commercial opportunities, helping ensure early utilisation.

The transaction reflects improved lender confidence following the company’s operational and financial turnaround in recent years. Management also indicated that the strengthened position could support further fleet growth over time, alongside intentions to return between 20% and 30% of adjusted net income to shareholders.

From an investment standpoint, the outlook is underpinned by solid fundamentals, including strong revenue growth, high operating margins and robust free cash flow generation, combined with a relatively modest P/E valuation. Share price technicals remain constructive, supported by a clear upward trend, although elevated momentum indicators such as RSI and Stochastics point to a higher risk of near-term consolidation.

More about Gulf Marine Services

Gulf Marine Services is a London Stock Exchange–listed offshore services company founded in Abu Dhabi in 1977. It is a leading global provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels (SESVs) to the offshore energy industry. Operating one of the youngest SESV fleets worldwide from bases in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the group supports offshore platform maintenance, well intervention and offshore wind activities across the Middle East, South East Asia, West Africa, North America, the Gulf of Mexico and Europe, using its versatile K-, S- and E-Class vessels to deliver cost- and time-efficient solutions.

Orosur Mining (LSE:OMI) has released unaudited results for the second quarter ended 30 November 2025, outlining continued operational progress across its Colombian and Argentine gold assets alongside a materially improved cash position following a successful fundraise.

Operational and financial highlights

In Colombia, the company continued infill drilling at the Pepas gold prospect as it works toward delivering an updated NI 43-101–compliant mineral resource estimate. At the nearby El Cedro prospect, soil geochemistry results returned encouraging signatures consistent with a large, zoned gold-bearing porphyry system, with exploration also identifying a second porphyry-style target along the same structural trend. Together, these results support the broader potential of the Anzá project area.

In Argentina, Orosur earned a 51% interest in Deseado Dorado S.A.S., which holds the El Pantano licences in Santa Cruz province. The company has now advanced into the second stage of its joint venture, with a 3,000-metre drilling programme currently under way. Elsewhere in the portfolio, Orosur has made a strategic decision to withdraw from its Nigerian lithium project, which had been fully impaired, allowing management to focus capital and effort on core gold assets.

Financially, the quarter was marked by an oversubscribed C$20 million equity placing, which lifted cash balances to US$16.3 million at period end. The company reported a net loss of US$4.6 million, driven largely by non-cash factors including warrant revaluation, as well as higher exploration spend and share-based payment expenses. The strengthened balance sheet provides increased flexibility to advance exploration programmes across its priority projects.

More about Orosur Mining

Orosur Mining Inc. is a gold-focused exploration and development company listed on AIM and the TSX Venture Exchange. Its core activities are centred on Colombia and Argentina, where it is advancing the Anzá project — including the Pepas and El Cedro prospects — and holds a majority interest in the El Pantano exploration licences in Argentina’s Santa Cruz province. The company has exited earlier ventures in Uruguay, Chile and Nigeria to concentrate on building value from its primary gold assets.

Georgina Energy plc (LSE:GEX) has secured confirmation that Harlequin Energy Ltd will fully fund drilling and development activities at the Hussar EP513 prospect in Western Australia under a non-dilutive structured offtake financing arrangement. The package includes complete funding for the Hussar 2 exploration well, associated site infrastructure, and a US$25 million offtake facility, allowing the project to advance without issuing new equity.

Operational and financial highlights

Under the agreement, Harlequin has appointed Schlumberger Oilfield UK Limited to work alongside Georgina’s drilling consultant, Aztech Well Construction, on the planning and execution of the Hussar 2 well. The drilling programme is expected to run for around 50 days and is scheduled to take place during 2026.

Georgina has also reported a material upgrade to the project’s potential, with revised prospective recoverable resources at Hussar increasing by 30%. Updated estimates now stand at 283 BCF of helium, 315 BCF of hydrogen and 2.9 TCF of hydrocarbons. The uplift strengthens the strategic importance of Hussar within the company’s broader portfolio, alongside the Mt Winter prospect and recently acquired assets, as Georgina seeks to establish itself as a meaningful participant in helium, hydrogen and natural gas markets while avoiding shareholder dilution.

Despite the positive funding and resource developments, the investment outlook remains constrained by weak financial fundamentals. The company is pre-revenue, with widening losses, accelerating cash burn and negative equity, while share price technicals remain bearish, with the stock trading below key moving averages and showing negative momentum. Corporate progress around approvals, offtake arrangements and financing provides some counterbalance, but does not yet fully offset the financial and market risks.

More about Georgina Energy

Georgina Energy plc is an energy exploration and development company focused on building a position in helium and hydrogen production, alongside natural gas. Through its wholly owned Australian subsidiary, Westmarket O&G, the company holds a 100% working interest in the onshore Hussar prospect in Western Australia (EP513) and, subject to completion, the Mt Winter prospect in the Northern Territory (EPA155). Its strategy is aimed at capitalising on tightening global supply-demand dynamics in helium and hydrogen markets.