Author: Fiona Craig

Silver has climbed to $42 an ounce, marking a 14-year high, as investors flock to the metal alongside gold’s record performance.

Following the rise, UBS has updated its projections, forecasting that silver could hit new all-time highs. The bank now anticipates silver reaching $44 an ounce by the end of 2025 and climbing to $47 by mid-2026, reflecting its upgraded outlook on gold as well.

“We flag that silver prices could reach an all-time high—a view that supports a long position in the metal or selling its downside risk for yield enhancement,” strategists Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon said in a note.

The rally is occurring even amid muted global industrial activity, as macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal deficits, slowing economic growth, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving investor interest.

Silver’s strong correlation with gold—generally ranging between 0.5 and 1.0—has amplified these gains. ETF inflows underscore this trend, with silver-backed funds adding over 20 million ounces this quarter, pushing the year-to-date total close to 80 million ounces. Despite this, holdings remain roughly 200 million ounces below the peak seen during the pandemic in 2021.

Looking forward, UBS expects silver to benefit further as monetary policy eases and the market anticipates a cyclical recovery. The strategists also project the gold-silver ratio will move toward 80, which would favor silver’s relative performance.

They warned, however, that silver’s volatility is roughly double that of gold. Price drops of 15% or more “can occur rapidly, even in a bull market,” they noted, emphasizing that investors need elevated risk tolerance to hold the metal.

“With lower rates, a softening global economy, and ongoing fiscal deficits, investor interest in precious metals remains strong,” UBS concluded, noting that these conditions are unlikely to reverse soon.

European stock markets traded slightly higher on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day. A quarter-point rate cut is largely anticipated, but attention remains firmly on the remarks Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver regarding the path forward for monetary policy.

On the economic front, U.K. inflation figures came in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will hold rates steady this week.

The Office for National Statistics reported that consumer prices increased 3.8% year over year in August, the same pace as July. The reading matched analyst estimates and marks one of the highest levels since January 2024, when inflation stood at 4.0%.

In equity markets, London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3% and Germany’s DAX gained 0.2%. France’s CAC 40, however, slipped 0.1%, moving against the broader trend.

Among individual movers, French services group Sodexo (EU:SW) advanced after securing a five-year contract renewal with Shell. German wind turbine manufacturer Nordex (TG:NDX1) also climbed after winning its first order in Ecuador. Meanwhile, Dutch postal operator PostNL (EU:PNL) traded sharply higher following the release of its new “ambitious” targets for 2028.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. equity futures pointed to a subdued start on Wednesday, with Wall Street expected to open little changed as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

Traders are widely betting that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis-point cut later today, though the bigger question lies in the central bank’s updated projections and Jerome Powell’s tone at the press conference. CME’s FedWatch tool places the likelihood of a quarter-point move at 94%, leaving only slim odds for a deeper reduction. Markets also anticipate two more cuts—one in October and another in December—but policymakers have signaled those will hinge on incoming data.

Pre-market sentiment took a hit from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which slipped 1.6% following a Financial Times report that Beijing has instructed its largest internet companies, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to halt purchases of the chipmaker’s AI products.

The wait-and-see approach follows a choppy Tuesday session. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both touched fresh intraday records before losing steam, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.3% at 45,757.90, the Nasdaq down 0.1% at 22,333.96, and the S&P 500 lower by 0.1% at 6,606.76.

Economic data offered a bright spot, as U.S. retail sales surged 0.6% in August—triple market expectations and matching July’s revised pace. Still, the upbeat report did little to shift sentiment as traders focused squarely on the Fed.

Sector performance remained mixed. Gold miners retreated sharply, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down 2.3%, while utilities also weakened, with the Dow Jones Utility Average falling 1.6%. By contrast, energy names rallied strongly, rising alongside crude oil prices and pushing both the NYSE Arca Oil Index and Philadelphia Oil Service Index up 2.2%.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Deutsche Bank analysts have revised upward their forecast for gold in 2026, citing recent price gains and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with ongoing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.

In a client note, the team led by Michael Hsueh set their new average price projection for 2026 at $4,000 per troy ounce, up from the previous $3,700/oz forecast. The adjustment follows spot gold reaching $3,700 on Tuesday, driven largely by market expectations that the Fed will reduce rates by at least 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this week. Lower rates generally support gold by reducing opportunity costs, weakening the U.S. dollar, and enhancing the metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset.

Analysts highlighted that investor sentiment has also been influenced by concerns over political interference in the Fed’s policymaking. President Donald Trump has publicly criticized the central bank for moving too slowly to cut rates, targeting Chair Jerome Powell and attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged property transactions. A federal appeals court recently blocked Trump’s effort to fire Cook, and the White House may appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.

According to Deutsche Bank, the ongoing questions around Fed independence and shifts in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee are adding uncertainty about how monetary policy adjustments might be implemented in 2026.

On the demand side, official purchases of gold continue to be robust, with China playing a major role. The bank noted that China’s net imports of gold through Hong Kong jumped 126.8% in July from June, and its central bank has been steadily adding to reserves. Globally, total gold demand—including over-the-counter trading—rose 3% year-on-year in the second quarter to 1,248.8 metric tons, while investment demand surged 78% compared to the previous year.

Still, Deutsche Bank pointed to potential headwinds for gold, such as strong equity market performance, greater clarity on Trump’s trade policies, an immigration crackdown affecting U.S. labor needs, and the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates further in 2026. The analysts also noted that historically, gold has often underperformed in the fourth quarter.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to significantly boost cross-border trade in goods and services, potentially increasing its value by nearly 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025 published Wednesday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The report examines multiple scenarios, projecting global trade growth of 34-37%, influenced by differences in policy adoption and technological advancement between low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Across these scenarios, global GDP could expand by 12-13%.

“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted in her foreword.

Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, raw materials, and intermediate components, reached $2.3 trillion in 2023. The report notes that if lower- and middle-income economies close half of their digital infrastructure gap with high-income nations and embrace AI more broadly, incomes in those regions could grow by 15% and 14%, respectively.

The WTO stresses the need for policies that bridge the digital divide, enhance workforce skills, and maintain open trade channels to ensure AI contributes to inclusive economic growth. It also highlights a sharp increase in quantitative restrictions on AI goods, rising from 130 in 2012 to almost 500 in 2024, primarily from high- and upper middle-income economies.

Access to AI-enabling products remains uneven globally, with some low-income countries facing bound tariffs of up to 45%. The WTO provides a platform for member states to discuss trade measures related to AI, noting 80 specific trade concerns centered on the technology.

The report calls for further commitments, such as broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updates under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, to make AI adoption more accessible and equitable worldwide.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

LSL Property Services (LSE:LSL) announced on Wednesday an underlying operating profit of £14.8 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared with the same period last year.

In a separate update, Jefferies maintained a “buy” rating on the shares, assigning a price target that implies upside of more than 30%.

The company reiterated its guidance for full-year 2025 underlying operating profit at £33 million, consistent with analyst expectations.

“Transformed to a capital light model in the past 2 years, LSL now makes a ROCE of >30%, while still offering significant operational leverage to a recovery in housing transactions in the UK,” the brokerage said.

Net cash at the end of June was £22 million, down from £32.3 million at year-end 2024. The decline reflected a £7.4 million working capital outflow, following a £5.9 million inflow in the second half of last year. Cash conversion reached 50% in H1, compared with 114% in H2 2024. During the period, the group invested £1.1 million in loans to franchisees for lettings and returned £3 million of a £7 million buyback.

Operating margin was 16.5%, down 40 basis points year-on-year. Reported profits included £1.8 million in exceptional costs: £0.6 million for financial services restructuring, £0.7 million for central restructuring, and £0.5 million linked to the administration of TenetLime seller.

Surveying and valuation revenues grew 9%, supported by changes to stamp duty, although margins fell 410 basis points from the prior year due to surveyor incentives normalising from unusually low 2024 levels. Margins were up 270 basis points versus H2 2024.

Financial services revenue remained flat. Adviser numbers declined 7% as the company moved away from protection-only services, while completions per adviser rose 8% and fees per completion increased 3%. Operating profit was flat, with the shift from protection-only business negatively impacting results by £1.6 million, partly offset by a £0.8 million gain from the Pivotal Growth joint venture. Pivotal reported £0.5 million profit in H1 after completing two acquisitions, bringing the total to 19.

Estate agency revenue and operating profit increased 1%, with branch numbers and lettings portfolios both up 1%, while income per branch jumped 22%. Residential sales rose 24%, offset by lower land and new homes revenue due to a lost contract.

Jefferies anticipates over 15% operating profit growth for 2025 and notes that earnings are closely tied to UK housing transactions. “We calculate that a 10% upside in mortgage approvals from our current +5% assumption in 2026 can offer >15% upside to our group EBIT estimates,” the brokerage said.

According to Jefferies, the franchise model has halved capital employed and reduced both capex and working capital requirements. Free cash flow is projected at 13–16% of sales, with net cash expected to reach £26.7 million by the end of 2025 and rise above £70 million, excluding potential proceeds from a Pivotal Growth sale.

Jefferies set a price target of 381p, based on an 11x 2026 P/E for the core business plus Pivotal Growth at 10x EV/EBITDA. “Valuing on a DCF suggests a price target of >500p, with potential for a step up in capital returns to catalyse the recognition of this value,” it added.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar ticked up on Wednesday, recovering slightly from recent two-month lows, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Despite the modest gain, the greenback remained under pressure as investors priced in expectations of policy easing.

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose 0.2% to 96.442, following a 0.7% decline on Tuesday to its lowest point since early July.

Eyes on the Fed

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 4.00%-4.25% range at the conclusion of its policy meeting later today. Traders will closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which are expected to provide guidance on the trajectory of future rate adjustments.

Alongside the FOMC’s statements, the central bank will release its updated rate projections, known as the “dot plot,” which investors use to gauge the expected pace of monetary policy changes.

“The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks,” noted analysts at ING. “For example, we could see short-dated US rates back up a little and the dollar get a brief bid if the Fed Dot Plots continues to show just 50bp of rate cuts this year compared to the 70bp now priced.”

Euro and Sterling Show Minor Movements

In Europe, the euro slipped 0.2% to 1.1841 against the dollar after hitting a four-year high in the previous session. Eurozone inflation data, expected later today, is projected to show a 2.1% rise in August compared to 2.0% in July, broadly aligning with the European Central Bank’s target.

The ECB held interest rates steady last week but emphasized flexibility for future cuts amid uncertainty over trade, energy prices, and exchange rates. ING added, “We’d expect good demand for EUR/USD on any corrective dip to the 1.1750/1.1780 area during Powell’s press conference. Seasonality now builds against the dollar, especially in November and December, with 1.1910 likely the final resistance before 1.20 is reached.”

GBP/USD was slightly higher at 1.3636 after U.K. inflation held at 3.8% in August, nearly double the Bank of England’s target, indicating the BoE is likely to maintain current monetary policy on Thursday.

Other Currencies

The Japanese yen gave back some previous gains, with USD/JPY up 0.1% at 146.62. Data showed Japan’s trade deficit narrowed less than expected in August, with exports also falling less sharply thanks to a recent U.S. trade deal, though overall demand remained weak. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

Meanwhile, USD/CNY edged down 0.1% to 7.1095, with the yuan supported by ongoing policy stimulus from Beijing, reaching its strongest level since November 2024. AUD/USD slipped 0.2% to 0.6671 following prior gains.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices remained steady in Asian trading on Wednesday after recent gains driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Russian output. Attention now turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which could influence crude demand.

Brent futures for November slipped slightly to $68.39 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell to $64.09 a barrel as of 21:48 ET (01:48 GMT). Recent U.S. industry data showed a sharp 3.2 million-barrel draw in inventories for the week ending September 12, according to the American Petroleum Institute, typically signaling similar trends in the official government report due later in the day.

Oil has also been supported by a softer U.S. dollar, with markets pricing in a likely 25 basis point Fed rate cut, though some traders anticipate a larger 50-point reduction. Lower rates generally boost economic activity, which can lift fuel demand, yet caution remains over the Fed’s future guidance given persistent inflation concerns.

Geopolitical tensions continue to influence oil markets. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have raised the prospect of output cuts, with Transneft warning of potential production disruptions. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has advocated higher tariffs on major Russian crude buyers such as China and India, further tightening supply expectations.

After a volatile August, when fears of oversupply weighed on prices, oil markets are now watching closely for both geopolitical developments and central bank signals that could shape near-term supply-demand dynamics.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices eased in early Asian trading on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and accompanying policy guidance later in the day.

Spot gold last traded down 0.4% at $3,673.38 per ounce by 02:40 ET (06:40 GMT), following a record high of $3,702.95 reached on Tuesday. December U.S. gold futures also dipped 0.4% to $3,710.77 per ounce.

Fed expected to trim rates

The market is largely anticipating a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. Traders have already priced in the move, with focus now shifting to the updated “dot plot” of policymakers’ rate forecasts and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post-meeting press conference. Investors are looking for clues on the pace and magnitude of potential additional cuts in 2026.

Lower interest rates typically support gold by reducing its opportunity cost, weakening the U.S. dollar, and enhancing its role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset.

“Continued concerns over the Fed’s independence will also remain the focus for the global market looking ahead,” ING analysts commented. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near 11-week lows, providing additional backing for bullion.

Gold has climbed over 40% so far this year amid factors such as Trump’s trade policies, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and central bank purchases, analysts noted.

Other metals mostly weaker

Other precious and base metals also saw declines as traders adjusted positions ahead of the Fed announcement. Silver futures dropped 1.5% to $42.26 per ounce, while platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,400.60 per ounce. Copper futures eased as well, with London Metal Exchange copper down 0.5% at $10,084.20 per ton and U.S. copper falling 0.7% to $4.67 per pound.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures showed little movement Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of a key Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. While markets widely expect a rate cut, debate continues over its magnitude and the Fed’s broader outlook. Meanwhile, U.K. inflation held steady, and packaged foods giant General Mills (NYSE:GIS) is set to report quarterly results.

Muted Futures Ahead of Fed Announcement

At 03:30 ET, Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely unchanged, with Nasdaq 100 futures up slightly by 19 points, or 0.1%. Wall Street indices had retreated in the previous session, and the U.S. dollar slid to fresh 52-week lows, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Fed decision.

On the corporate front, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares fell after reports suggested weaker-than-expected demand for its new AI chips in China. Conversely, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) gained amid rumors the company is part of a consortium set to keep the U.S. operations of short-form video platform TikTok running under a U.S.-China framework agreement.

Fed Rate Decision in Focus

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates at the close of its two-day policy meeting. Most analysts anticipate a 25 basis point reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range, while a smaller number of traders are considering the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut.

Recent data suggesting a softening U.S. labor market contrasts with ongoing signs of persistent inflation. A rate cut could encourage investment and hiring but may also risk higher prices. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee’s commentary and updated rate projections, commonly known as the “dot plot,” for insights into future policy direction.

“Inflation remains above target and tariffs are likely to keep it elevated in the near term, but the balance of risks are tilted towards the need for more support for the economy,” analysts at ING noted.

U.K. Inflation Steady

In the U.K., consumer price inflation remained at 3.8% in August, nearly double the Bank of England’s 2% target, indicating the central bank is likely to hold rates steady at Thursday’s meeting. Monthly inflation rose 0.3%, faster than July’s 0.1% increase, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, grew 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% annually.

General Mills Earnings Preview

General Mills is scheduled to release first-quarter results before the U.S. market opens. Investors will monitor sales trends and outlook for consumer demand amid economic uncertainty and tariff-related concerns. Bloomberg consensus expects the packaged foods company, known for brands such as Chex and Nature Valley, to report adjusted EPS of $0.82 on $4.52 billion in net sales. Shares have declined roughly 22% year-to-date.

Commodities Update

Gold prices pulled back slightly from record highs, with spot gold down 0.6% at $3,667.61 an ounce by 03:30 ET, after reaching $3,702.95 on Tuesday. U.S. December gold futures also fell 0.6% to $3,704.20/oz.

Meanwhile, oil prices edged lower, giving back some of Tuesday’s gains amid concerns about potential disruptions to Russian production. Both Brent and WTI crude had risen over 1% the previous session, driven in part by worries over Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports and refineries.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.