Author: Fiona Craig

  • Gold holds firm as traders assess Fed outlook and geopolitical tensions

    Gold holds firm as traders assess Fed outlook and geopolitical tensions

    Gold prices remained near a two-week high on Thursday as investors weighed safe-haven demand generated by escalating tensions in the Middle East against concerns that rising oil prices could keep inflation elevated and delay any easing of U.S. monetary policy.

    Spot gold (XAU/USD) edged 0.1% lower to $4,127.99 an ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.5% to $4,130.62. Silver (XAG/USD) gained 0.3% to $59.88 an ounce and platinum (XPT/USD) advanced 0.8% to $1,658.28.

    After climbing roughly 3% over the previous two sessions, bullion paused as investors evaluated the next major catalysts.

    Oil prices reinforce inflation concerns

    The conflict between the United States and Iran continued to dominate financial markets, with renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea adding to concerns over global energy supplies.

    The disruption has helped keep crude oil prices elevated, increasing expectations that inflation could remain above central bank targets for longer.

    A prolonged period of higher inflation could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive interest rates, a scenario that typically limits upside for non-yielding assets such as gold.

    Focus turns to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting

    Markets remain uncertain about the Fed’s next move, with investors closely watching next week’s policy meeting for updated guidance on interest rates.

    Any indication that policymakers intend to keep borrowing costs elevated for an extended period could influence precious metal prices in the near term.

    Investor demand remains resilient

    Analysts at ANZ said investor appetite for gold has remained resilient despite expectations of tighter monetary policy.

    The bank highlighted rising speculative long positions and stronger inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, suggesting that many investors continue to use bullion as a hedge against market volatility and expensive equity valuations.

    Gold has also remained comfortably above the key $4,000 level, with traders watching whether the metal can extend its recovery toward resistance around $4,200.

  • Markets eye Alphabet, Tesla and IBM earnings as ECB prepares policy announcement: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Markets eye Alphabet, Tesla and IBM earnings as ECB prepares policy announcement: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures traded lower on Thursday as investors evaluated earnings from several technology heavyweights, while attention also shifted to the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision against a backdrop of elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

    Investor sentiment weakens amid inflation concerns

    Futures linked to the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all slipped around 0.4% before the opening bell, extending a cautious mood across global markets.

    Renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran, together with attacks threatening key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, continued to support higher crude oil prices. The move has intensified concerns that energy-driven inflation could remain persistent, complicating the outlook for central bank policy.

    Big Tech continues to invest heavily in AI

    Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) announced another increase in capital spending as it accelerates investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

    The company lifted its annual capital expenditure target to approximately $205 billion and reported negative free cash flow after second-quarter investment spending climbed to around $45 billion. Investors are increasingly focused on whether these substantial AI investments will translate into stronger long-term earnings growth.

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also remained under pressure after reporting negative free cash flow as spending on AI and robotics accelerated. Chief Executive Elon Musk defended the elevated investment levels, describing them as essential to the company’s future strategy despite a negative short-term impact on cash generation.

    Meanwhile, IBM (NYSE:IBM) lowered its full-year revenue growth forecast following weaker infrastructure sales during the second quarter, although management reiterated confidence in the company’s long-term AI opportunities.

    ECB decision takes centre stage

    Market attention now turns to the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25%.

    However, investors will closely examine the accompanying statement and comments from President Christine Lagarde for signals on whether policymakers remain concerned about inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices and geopolitical instability.

    With inflation still running above target, traders continue to assess whether borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

  • European stocks retreat as higher bond yields and ECB decision keep investors cautious: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stocks retreat as higher bond yields and ECB decision keep investors cautious: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stock markets moved lower on Thursday as rising government bond yields and expectations surrounding the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision weighed on investor sentiment. Higher oil prices continued to fuel inflation concerns, increasing pressure on interest rate-sensitive sectors.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 index slipped 0.8% in early trading after reaching a two-week high in the previous session, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each declined by more than 1%.

    Rising oil prices push borrowing costs higher

    The continued increase in global crude oil prices remained one of the main drivers behind the market’s weakness.

    Ongoing disruption to shipping routes in the Middle East has renewed concerns that higher energy costs could trigger another wave of inflation, prompting investors to demand higher yields on European government bonds.

    Rising bond yields typically weigh on equity markets by increasing financing costs for businesses while making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks.

    Markets await ECB policy announcement

    Investors also adopted a cautious approach ahead of the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy announcement.

    Financial markets broadly expect policymakers to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, investors will closely monitor comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for any indication that the central bank could consider raising rates later this year.

    The prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer has continued to temper expectations for a stronger recovery in European corporate earnings.

    Corporate earnings provide mixed signals

    Corporate updates offered a mixed picture across European markets.

    Technology stocks found some support after Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) announced higher capital expenditure plans alongside its latest earnings, a move expected to benefit European suppliers of semiconductor equipment, precision manufacturing technologies and digital infrastructure.

    Consumer goods group Nestlé (TG:NESR) also outperformed expectations after reporting stronger-than-anticipated organic sales growth during the second quarter, highlighting resilient consumer demand.

    Elsewhere, Nokia (NYSE:NOK) shares gained 6% after the telecommunications equipment maker reported second-quarter operating profit above market forecasts.

    Among defence companies, Dassault Aviation (EU:AM) advanced 8%, while Thales (EU:HO) rose 4% following their respective quarterly results.

    In contrast, STMicroelectronics (BIT:STMMI) dropped nearly 14% after investors reacted negatively to its second-quarter earnings update.

  • Europe records double-digit car sales growth in June as electric vehicles gain momentum

    Europe records double-digit car sales growth in June as electric vehicles gain momentum

    New passenger car registrations across Europe posted another month of solid growth in June, supported by continued demand for electric and hybrid vehicles despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

    According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), registrations across the European Union, EFTA countries and the United Kingdom increased 13.1% year-on-year to 1.41 million vehicles.

    During the first six months of 2026, total registrations rose 6.1% to 7.23 million units.

    Electrified vehicles continue to drive market expansion

    ACEA said the European automotive market continued to benefit from strong consumer interest in electrified vehicles, even as geopolitical tensions continued to cloud the economic outlook.

    Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations climbed 51.0% in June to 360,843 units.

    Plug-in hybrid registrations increased 22.7%, while hybrid-electric vehicle sales advanced 17.1%.

    In contrast, demand for conventional combustion vehicles weakened, with petrol registrations falling 12.2% and diesel registrations declining 16.9% compared with June 2025.

    Chinese brands expand market share

    Chinese manufacturers continued to strengthen their position in the European market.

    BYD (USOTC:BYDDY) nearly tripled its June registrations compared with the same month last year, while Chery Automobile (HK:9973) recorded a 271% increase in sales. SAIC Motor also posted strong growth, with registrations rising 50.7%.

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also delivered a robust performance, reporting a 72.1% increase in registrations during June.

    Electric vehicles increase their share of the market

    Battery-electric vehicles accounted for 20.7% of all new registrations across the European Union during the first half of 2026, up from 15.6% a year earlier.

    Hybrid vehicles remained the region’s leading powertrain, representing 37.3% of all new vehicle registrations across the bloc.

  • Videndum shares tumble after profit warning and CEO change

    Videndum shares tumble after profit warning and CEO change

    Videndum PLC (LSE:VID) shares slumped 42.5% to a record low after the imaging and content creation technology group issued a sharp profit warning, citing disruption linked to the conflict in the Middle East, while also announcing a change in its leadership team.

    Middle East disruption weighs on trading

    The company said first-half trading proved more difficult than anticipated as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupted its operations.

    According to Videndum, higher logistics costs, longer delivery times and delays in customer purchasing decisions negatively affected financial performance during the period.

    Company cuts full-year profit expectations

    Reflecting the weaker trading environment, Videndum lowered its full-year guidance and now expects adjusted core profit to be between £15 million and £18 million, a significant reduction from its previous outlook.

    The revised forecast highlights the impact that supply chain challenges and softer customer demand have had on the group’s earnings expectations.

    New chief executive appointed

    Alongside the trading update, Videndum announced the appointment of Jan Peter Tewes as Group Chief Executive Officer.

    The combination of the lower profit forecast and leadership transition prompted a sharp sell-off in the company’s shares, sending the stock to its lowest level since listing.

  • Aston Martin shares rise after securing £550 million financing package

    Aston Martin shares rise after securing £550 million financing package

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (LSE:AML) shares climbed 7.7% after the luxury car manufacturer announced a new £550 million ($736 million) debt financing agreement designed to strengthen its liquidity and support its ongoing business operations.

    HPS Investment Partners leads funding package

    The financing has been arranged by funds managed by HPS Investment Partners, a firm owned by BlackRock. According to Aston Martin, the package consists of a £450 million term loan, a £100 million delayed draw loan and an additional £100 million of permitted debt capacity.

    The agreement provides the company with greater financial flexibility as it continues to execute its strategy in the global luxury automotive market.

    Financing strengthens liquidity position

    The new funding is expected to enhance Aston Martin’s liquidity, providing additional resources to support operations and future business initiatives.

    The company said the financing package forms part of its broader efforts to maintain a solid financial position while continuing to invest in its premium vehicle portfolio and long-term growth plans.

  • Market Open: BT Group Guidance, easyJet Profits

    Market Open: BT Group Guidance, easyJet Profits

    FTSE 100 drops as BT maintains guidance and easyJet reports weaker profits while Brent crude extends gains on geopolitical tensions.

    Market Overview

    The FTSE 100 dropped after the open, to 10,716.99, down 0.001 per cent from the previous close, while the Euronext 100 slipped 0.02 per cent to 1,934.31 and Germany’s DAX fell 0.82 per cent to 24,948.06. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed lower at 25,690.90 and the S&P 500 finished at 7,498.96, both ending the previous session in negative territory. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors weighed escalating US-Iran tensions, higher bond yields ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, and continued strength in oil prices following renewed supply disruption concerns in the Red Sea.

    Commodity markets continued to reflect geopolitical uncertainty, with Brent crude extending its recent gains while copper, gold and natural gas were little changed. Bitcoin was broadly flat against sterling. Sterling weakened slightly against the US dollar and Swiss franc, was little changed against the euro and Australian dollar, and strengthened modestly against the Japanese yen as investors continued to monitor energy markets and broader geopolitical developments.


    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Down (-0.001%), 10,716.99
    Euronext 100: Down (-0.02%), 1,934.31
    DAX: Down (-0.82%), 24,948.06
    NASDAQ: Down, 25,690.90
    S&P 500: Down, 7,498.96


    In the Headlines

    Trading Update – BT Group (LSE:BT.A)

    BT Group maintained its full-year guidance after a solid start to the financial year, supported by continued expansion of its full-fibre broadband network and wider 5G coverage. The update reinforces confidence in the group’s long-term infrastructure strategy and cash flow outlook.

    Quarterly Results – easyJet (LSE:EZJ)

    easyJet reported a sharp fall in third-quarter profit as higher fuel costs and disruption linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on performance. Despite the weaker earnings, the airline highlighted resilient holiday demand and continued operational improvements heading into the peak summer season.


    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Down (-0.00%), $1.3375
    CHF: Up (+0.02%), Fr.1.0891
    EUR: Down (-0.01%), €1.1721
    JPY: Down (-0.00%), ¥218.1325
    AUD: Down (-0.04%), $1.9136
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £48,897.04


    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Down
    Brent Crude: Up
    Natural Gas: Down

  • Getlink raises 2026 outlook after ElecLink drives stronger first-half performance

    Getlink raises 2026 outlook after ElecLink drives stronger first-half performance

    Getlink SE (EU:GET) increased its full-year 2026 earnings guidance after reporting first-half EBITDA slightly ahead of market expectations, supported by a sharp improvement in performance from its ElecLink electricity interconnector.

    ElecLink delivers strong earnings contribution

    First-half EBITDA exceeded analyst forecasts by around 50 basis points, with ElecLink emerging as the main growth driver. EBITDA from the electricity interconnector climbed 79% year-on-year, benefiting from the absence of one-off provisions that affected results in the prior-year period.

    The company also increased its full-year EBITDA guidance to a range of €835 million to €870 million. The midpoint of €852.5 million represents an improvement of around 150 basis points compared with previous guidance, although it remains below the company-compiled consensus estimate of €881 million.

    Shuttle operations maintain positive momentum

    Getlink reported resilient trading across its shuttle businesses during the first half of the year. Passenger vehicle services delivered solid pricing performance, while truck shuttle operations continued to gain market share, particularly in the closing months of the reporting period.

    Free cash flow came in ahead of expectations, supported by favourable working capital movements. Capital expenditure reached €81 million, marginally above the company consensus forecast of €79 million, while overall EBITDA remained broadly in line with market projections.

    Capacity sales strengthen outlook

    ElecLink has already secured advance sales worth €305 million, covering around 98% of its available capacity for 2026. At full utilisation, expected revenue would reach approximately €311 million, slightly ahead of analyst expectations of €307 million.

    Getlink operates the Channel Tunnel linking the United Kingdom and France, providing passenger shuttle, freight shuttle and rail infrastructure services. It also owns and operates the ElecLink subsea electricity interconnector connecting the two countries.

    Management’s upgraded guidance reflects confidence in the group’s operational performance, although analysts expect consensus forecasts to remain largely unchanged following the results. Based on 2027 estimates, Getlink currently trades on an implied free cash flow yield of around 3.5% and a dividend yield of approximately 4.7%.

  • TotalEnergies posts strongest quarterly earnings in nearly three years as debt falls

    TotalEnergies posts strongest quarterly earnings in nearly three years as debt falls

    TotalEnergies (LSE:TTE) delivered its highest quarterly profit in almost three years after stronger oil prices and refining margins boosted second-quarter performance. The energy group also reduced its debt burden, while maintaining shareholder returns through a new share buyback programme and an interim dividend.

    Higher energy prices lift second-quarter earnings

    Adjusted net income reached $6 billion during the second quarter, matching analyst expectations compiled by LSEG. The result represented a 67% increase from $3.6 billion a year earlier and improved from $5.4 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

    Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% from the previous quarter to $13.2 billion.

    The company benefited from elevated crude oil and natural gas prices following the conflict involving Iran, which disrupted global energy markets and tightened supply after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was severely affected.

    Shares in TotalEnergies gained 1.4% in early Paris trading following the earnings release.

    Upstream and refining businesses drive growth

    Exploration and production generated earnings of $3.2 billion, representing a 64% increase from the same period last year and a 25% improvement over the previous quarter as production in the Middle East gradually recovered.

    Refining and chemicals delivered one of the strongest performances of the quarter, with earnings jumping 362% year-on-year to $1.8 billion. The division benefited from stronger refining margins and continued profitable trading during the supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

    By contrast, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) business reported weaker results. Earnings declined 22% to $807 million as softer European LNG demand weighed on performance.

    Company cuts debt and maintains shareholder distributions

    TotalEnergies continued to strengthen its balance sheet by reducing net debt by $3.3 billion to $19.71 billion, outperforming analyst expectations by around 2%. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, reached $9.8 billion, approximately 3% ahead of consensus estimates.

    Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson described the results as a “small positive,” adding that TotalEnergies “managed expectations well” into the second quarter.

    Alongside its results, the company confirmed a $1.5 billion share buyback programme for the third quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter, and announced a second interim dividend of €0.90 per share.

  • FTSE 100 slips as Middle East tensions intensify ahead of ECB decision

    FTSE 100 slips as Middle East tensions intensify ahead of ECB decision

    The FTSE 100 traded lower on Thursday as investors reacted to renewed military action between the United States and Iran while awaiting the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision. Escalating geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices sharply higher and prompted a cautious tone across European equity markets.

    As of 03:38 ET (07:38 GMT), the FTSE 100 was down 0.17%, while Germany’s DAX declined 0.82% and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.92%. Sterling edged 0.03% lower against the U.S. dollar to 1.3377.

    U.S.-Iran conflict fuels market uncertainty

    The latest bout of market volatility followed fresh U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets.

    U.S. Central Command said on social media platform X that American forces “began launching more strikes against Iranian military targets” on Wednesday “at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” with the objective of further reducing Tehran’s ability to “threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels.”

    CENTCOM also rejected Iranian claims that its Revolutionary Guard navy controls the Strait of Hormuz, describing those assertions as “FALSE” and stating that U.S. forces have escorted more than 900 vessels through the strategic waterway since early May.

    Speaking in Marietta, Georgia, U.S. President Donald Trump described the conflict as a “skirmish,” adding that Iran is “getting hit so hard” and “they want to make a deal,” although he said Tehran was “not ready” because “every time they make a deal they want to change it.”

    Trump also warned on Truth Social that the United States would “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT” for every Iranian attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, “including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.”

    Iran rejected the U.S. accusations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described allegations concerning a site known as “Kolang Kouh” as “a fabricated pretext for aggression,” while colleague Esmaeil Baqaei separately accused Washington of committing war crimes in “Minab and Lamard.”

    Iranian news agency Tasnim also reported that Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz had been targeted in a U.S. missile strike, with assessments of the damage still underway.

    Separately, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a “123” civil nuclear cooperation agreement aimed at expanding strategic and commercial cooperation. The agreement will now be submitted to the U.S. Congress for review.

    Rising geopolitical tensions lifted energy markets, with Brent crude climbing 3.94% to $97.77 per barrel and WTI crude rising 3.1% to $89.52. Gold futures fell 1.1% to $4,106.95 an ounce, while spot gold eased 0.62% to $4,103.10.

    UK stocks in focus

    EasyJet (LSE:EZJ) reported a sharp fall in third-quarter profit as higher fuel prices and weaker travel demand linked to the conflict in the Middle East weighed on earnings. However, the airline said bookings continue to improve ahead of the peak summer travel season.

    Heathrow Airport posted lower first-half core profit as higher tax-related costs and uncertainty surrounding travel demand offset resilient passenger traffic.

    Anglo American (LSE:AAL) reaffirmed its full-year copper production guidance and lowered its 2026 copper cost forecast, although it warned that its diamond and steelmaking coal businesses are expected to report first-half underlying losses. The miner also said its proposed merger with Teck Resources remains on schedule.

    Centrica (LSE:CAN) announced plans to reduce its workforce by around 1,300 positions as part of its restructuring programme while continuing to invest in nuclear energy. The British Gas owner also reported an 18% decline in adjusted first-half core profit following asset disposals, production outages and weaker market conditions.

    Mitchells & Butlers (LSE:MAB) said unusually hot weather weighed on sales at its food-led pubs during the third quarter, although like-for-like sales for the financial year to date remained 2.2% higher.

    3i Group (LSE:III) reported continued growth at discount retailer Action, with like-for-like sales increasing 3.6% during the second quarter, while net asset value per share rose despite foreign exchange headwinds.

    AJ Bell (LSE:AJB) announced that assets under administration reached a record £121.5 billion, supported by strong customer growth and net inflows. The investment platform also confirmed it will reduce charges on its managed portfolio service from October.