Author: Fiona Craig

Gold prices declined on Monday as the US dollar strengthened, with investors assessing the potential impact of geopolitical developments on inflation and monetary policy. Markets were also monitoring US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine alongside renewed attacks in the Middle East.

At 05:01 ET (09:01 GMT), spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.5% to $4,174.23 per ounce, while gold futures declined 0.4% to $4,198.05.

Other precious metals also weakened. Spot silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.5% to $60.5075 per ounce, platinum (XPT/USD) lost 0.3% to $1,684.41, and palladium (XPD/USD) declined 0.2% to $1,150.30. Palladium futures, however, edged higher to $1,150.75.

The US dollar index gained 0.1% to 102.31, making dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Gold had advanced 1.3% during the previous week.

Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Announcement Draws Attention

Trump said an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had taken immediate effect, raising expectations that disruptions to fuel production and exports could ease.

The US president had previously urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. He also said Moscow had agreed to release additional diesel supplies into international markets.

However, the ceasefire had not been independently confirmed by both governments, leaving uncertainty over whether the proposed arrangement would lead to a reduction in attacks on energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, renewed violence in the Middle East continued to raise concerns about the stability of regional energy supplies.

King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was reportedly attacked by Houthi forces on Sunday, following a strike on Saturday that killed 12 people and injured more than 300.

The Saturday incident was reported as the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia since the conflict involving Iran began in late February.

The Houthis said their operations were in response to what they described as Saudi aggression, including an attack on the airport in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital.

The incidents have increased concerns about the possibility of further disruption to regional energy production and transportation.

Despite a recent decline in crude oil prices, gold has lost approximately one-fifth of its value since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.

Higher energy costs can contribute to broader inflation, potentially prompting central banks to maintain or increase interest rates.

Gold does not generate interest income, meaning higher yields on bonds and other financial assets can reduce its relative attractiveness to investors.

ETF Inflows and Central Bank Buying Provide Support

Analysts at ANZ identified stronger investment demand as a factor supporting gold prices despite concerns about inflation and interest rates.

According to Bloomberg data cited by the bank, inflows into exchange-traded funds backed by gold have reached their highest level in four years.

ANZ attributed the increased interest partly to concerns about government finances, including rising debt-servicing costs and changes in money supply.

Central bank purchases have also continued to contribute to demand.

The People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings by 740,000 ounces in September, marking its 23rd consecutive month of purchases.

However, ANZ warned that the possibility of further monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve could limit gains in bullion prices if inflation remains elevated.

The prospect of higher interest rates remains an important consideration for investors, particularly as geopolitical developments continue to influence energy prices.

Market participants will therefore monitor the proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, developments in the Middle East and forthcoming inflation indicators for signals about the direction of monetary policy and precious metal prices.

Oil prices recovered from earlier losses on Monday as investors assessed the impact of attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz alongside US President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional Russian diesel supplies.

Brent crude futures for December delivery increased by 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $105.41 per barrel by 09:23 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 57 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.42 per barrel.

The gains followed renewed concerns about energy supplies from the Middle East, where attacks on transport infrastructure and commercial shipping have continued.

The Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed responsibility for an attack on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Additional attacks were reported on Sunday.

Security concerns also increased around the Strait of Hormuz, where further incidents involving oil tankers have been reported this month.

United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar, Oman, while another vessel sustained damage while travelling through the strait.

The incidents raised questions about the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports recorded during September, as continued attacks could disrupt shipping operations.

Goldman Sachs revised its December Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, incorporating an estimated geopolitical risk premium of slightly more than $20 per barrel.

The bank also provided forecasts for US crude prices, citing the unusually wide difference between WTI and Brent.

“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Separately, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to return personnel to offshore facilities and resume production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall early on Saturday.

Russian Diesel Announcement Weighs on Gasoil Futures

European gasoil futures declined 4.3% to $1,419.50 per metric tonne after Trump announced on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and international markets.

The proposed shipments represent approximately 2.25 million barrels, with the president indicating that additional volumes could become available later.

However, analysts questioned Russia’s capacity to increase exports following repeated attacks on its refining infrastructure.

“The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia’s refining capacity has been severely reduced,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

“However, Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market —equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand.”

The reported partial easing of Russia’s export restrictions could make additional diesel available internationally, although refinery disruptions remain a constraint on potential shipments.

Trump also announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting details of the proposed arrangement, while Moscow had not commented.

The announcement therefore remained unconfirmed by both sides, leaving uncertainty over whether attacks on energy infrastructure would be suspended.

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol also called on member countries to assess whether further releases of diesel supplies were necessary.

Birol urged countries that had not yet delivered their pledged volumes to accelerate releases, giving priority to diesel.

Oil markets consequently faced two competing developments: the possibility of additional Russian fuel supplies and continuing risks to energy shipments from the Middle East.

The timing and scale of any increase in Russian diesel exports remain uncertain, while attacks on regional shipping routes and energy infrastructure continue to affect supply expectations.

European stock markets advanced on Monday as crude oil prices declined following a ceasefire proposal announced by US President Donald Trump concerning energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine. Investors also looked ahead to the start of the third-quarter corporate earnings season and upcoming US inflation data.

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.5% in early trading, recovering some stability following fluctuations during the previous week.

Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both advanced 0.5%, while London’s FTSE 100 increased 0.6%. Spain’s IBEX 35 outperformed the other major European benchmarks, rising 1.4%.

Oil prices moved lower after Trump announced what he described as an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. However, the announcement had not been accompanied by confirmation that attacks on energy infrastructure had stopped.

Brent crude futures for December delivery declined 1.8% to $102.84 per barrel, reversing part of the approximately 3% increase recorded during the previous week amid geopolitical tensions.

Trump’s proposal also included an increase in Russian diesel exports to the United States and international markets. Questions remain over Russia’s ability to expand shipments, given the effects of Ukrainian drone attacks on its refining infrastructure.

Repeated strikes against Russian refineries have affected domestic processing capacity, raising uncertainty over the availability of additional diesel supplies for export while meeting domestic demand.

Military activity continued over the weekend despite the ceasefire announcement.

Russia carried out further attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, while Ukrainian strikes reportedly targeted facilities deeper inside Russia, including data centres operated by technology company Yandex.

The reported attacks disrupted some regional internet and banking services.

Market participants also remained cautious following a similar ceasefire initiative announced by Washington in September that did not result in a confirmed suspension of attacks.

Alongside geopolitical developments, investors are preparing for the start of the third-quarter corporate earnings reporting period.

Major US banks are scheduled to publish their quarterly results on Tuesday, providing an early indication of business performance and financial conditions.

European investors will also assess corporate earnings guidance for evidence of how companies are managing borrowing costs and changes in input prices.

Attention will subsequently turn to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

The inflation figures are expected to provide further information on price pressures in the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting.

Investors will examine the report for indications of whether the central bank is likely to maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance or leave interest rates unchanged.

The combination of developments in energy markets, corporate earnings announcements and US inflation data is expected to remain central to market attention during the week.

Shares in European automotive manufacturers advanced on Monday after the European Union and China reached a preliminary understanding aimed at reducing Chinese exports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles to the European market.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic announced the development following two days of negotiations in Beijing, indicating that the arrangement could reduce Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the EU by more than half.

According to Sefcovic, the understanding could result in several million fewer vehicles being imported into the bloc over a four-year period. However, he did not provide details on how the proposed restrictions would be implemented.

European automotive stocks recorded gains following the announcement. Stellantis (BIT:STLAM) and Renault (EU:RNO) both rose more than 2%, while Volkswagen (TG:VOW3) and Porsche (TG:PAH3) advanced by over 1%.

The development comes as European carmakers face pressure from US tariffs and increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers, factors that have weighed on the sector over the past two years.

Sefcovic described the agreement as an initial measure in addressing trade imbalances between the EU and China.

“This is far from the end. It is a crucial first step – but only a first step – in the process of rebalancing,” he said.

The EU’s trade deficit with China has increased to more than €1 billion per day, according to the figures cited during the discussions.

European Union leaders are scheduled to review the outcome of the negotiations at a summit in Brussels next Thursday.

The talks also produced agreements covering tariffs on European exports and Chinese export licensing procedures.

China agreed to reduce import duties on approximately €4 billion worth of EU exports, including automotive components, olive oil and footwear.

Both sides also reached an understanding on facilitating Chinese export licences for rare earth elements and permanent magnets, materials used in several European industrial sectors.

Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said the approach to hybrid vehicle imports should be extended to other industries. He also called for more effective use of the EU’s existing trade defence instruments.

China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao rejected the suggestion that China was responsible for the European Union’s economic difficulties.

According to China’s Commerce Ministry, Wang said China was “not the root cause” of the EU’s problems but a partner in addressing them.

The negotiations come amid concerns among EU governments over increasing Chinese vehicle imports and employment reductions across the European automotive industry.

Volkswagen has announced job reductions affecting approximately 100,000 positions, according to the figures cited in the report.

Imports of plug-in hybrid vehicles into the EU increased by 86% in the year to September, while their prices declined by 20%. More than half of these imported vehicles now originate from China.

Although the preliminary understanding signals potential changes to trade flows, the timing, implementation mechanisms and final scope of the proposed restrictions have not yet been specified.

AdvancedAdvT Limited (LSE:ADVT) has reported double-digit growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended 31 August 2026, supported by organic expansion and acquisitions. The software solutions group expects revenue of at least £28.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of no less than £8.0 million, with trading remaining in line with management expectations.

The company attributed its first-half performance to growth across its software operations, which provide business management, healthcare compliance and human capital management solutions.

AdvancedAdvT continues to invest in its software platforms, including artificial intelligence, automation and Software as a Service (SaaS) capabilities. The group said AI-enabled functionality has already been deployed in customer environments, with further development focused on operational efficiency and the expansion of its product offering.

At 31 August 2026, the company held net cash and investments totalling £113.2 million, following expenditure of £9.2 million on share repurchases during the first half.

In September, AdvancedAdvT initiated a further £10 million share buyback programme, continuing its capital return activities alongside investment in its existing businesses.

The group also maintains a strategic investment in M&C Saatchi plc as part of its wider investment portfolio.

AdvancedAdvT said it continues to evaluate potential acquisitions that would complement its existing software operations and provide opportunities to expand into additional markets, geographical regions and technology segments.

Management intends to pursue a combination of organic development and acquisitions, with investment priorities including AI integration, automation and scalable SaaS infrastructure.

The company identified the development of software applications incorporating data analytics and business intelligence as an ongoing area of investment, particularly across its business solutions and compliance markets.

AdvancedAdvT expects to publish its detailed half-year financial results on 2 November 2026, when it will provide further information on its financial performance and operational developments.

About AdvancedAdvT Limited

AdvancedAdvT Limited is an international software solutions provider operating across business solutions, healthcare compliance and human capital management markets.

The group develops and supplies software platforms incorporating data analytics, business intelligence, artificial intelligence and automation to support business processes and regulatory requirements.

AdvancedAdvT pursues growth through organic product development and acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its software portfolio, entering adjacent markets and developing subscription-based technology services.

Big Technologies plc (LSE:BIG) has disclosed that its former chief executive officer, Sara Murray, has served a Claim Form against the company seeking damages for alleged libel and other relief in connection with a regulatory announcement published on 12 September 2025.

The legal claim relates to a litigation update issued by the AIM-listed electronic monitoring technology company. Big Technologies confirmed that the Claim Form does not currently specify the amount of damages being sought.

Further details of the allegations are expected to become available once the particulars of claim have been served. The company has not provided a timetable for that stage of the proceedings.

Big Technologies said the September 2025 announcement was issued in accordance with its regulatory disclosure obligations as an AIM-quoted company, including requirements under the UK Market Abuse Regulation and AIM Rules.

The company also stated that it had obtained extensive legal advice before publishing the announcement, with the objective of minimising potential defamation risks associated with the disclosure.

The proceedings concern allegations of libel arising from the earlier announcement. No judicial determination regarding the claim has been reported in the information disclosed.

The company has not indicated the potential financial exposure associated with the proceedings, as the damages sought remain unspecified.

Big Technologies has also not provided details of any further procedural steps beyond the anticipated service of the particulars of claim.

The dispute adds to the company’s ongoing legal matters, with further information expected as the proceedings develop and additional disclosures become available.

About Big Technologies plc

Big Technologies plc is an AIM-listed technology company specialising in electronic monitoring systems for the criminal justice sector.

Operating under the Buddi brand, the company provides integrated hardware and software solutions used by justice authorities and other organisations to monitor individuals through electronic tagging technology.

Its platform combines monitoring devices with subscription-based software services, supporting deployments across different jurisdictions and operational requirements. The company’s business model includes recurring revenues from technology services and longer-term customer contracts.

Tern Plc (LSE:TERN) has reached a settlement agreement with the General Partner of Sure Valley Ventures Enterprise Capital Fund LP (SVV2), resolving outstanding claims and potential financial liabilities associated with its former investment in the fund.

The AIM-listed technology investment company confirmed that it has paid £73,740 under the agreement, bringing an end to its financial obligations relating to SVV2.

The settlement removes a previously disclosed contingent liability that Tern had estimated could reach approximately £200,000. The company confirmed that no further payments or commitments to the fund are required following completion of the agreement.

Tern had previously sought relief from its funding commitments to SVV2, subsequently being classified as a defaulting investor under the fund’s arrangements.

As a consequence, the company’s partnership interest in SVV2 was subject to forfeiture or transfer, with Tern expecting to receive minimal consideration for its former holding.

The settlement resolves the outstanding matters associated with that process, including any remaining claims arising from the company’s participation in the fund.

According to Tern, the agreement provides certainty regarding its financial exposure to SVV2 and allows management to concentrate on its existing investment portfolio.

The board intends to prioritise the allocation of capital and management resources towards Tern’s directly held Internet of Things (IoT) technology businesses, rather than maintaining commitments to the external venture capital fund.

Management believes its direct portfolio companies offer opportunities for long-term value creation, particularly where Tern can exercise greater influence over operational and strategic development.

The company said the settlement is consistent with its strategy of focusing resources on existing portfolio investments and supporting their development.

Following the £73,740 payment, Tern has confirmed that it holds no remaining obligations to SVV2.

About Tern Plc

Tern Plc is an AIM-listed investment company focused on businesses developing Internet of Things technology and related digital solutions.

The company invests in and supports technology businesses through its portfolio holdings, with a strategy centred on developing the value of its existing investments.

Tern prioritises direct investments in portfolio companies where it can participate in their strategic development and allocate capital according to its investment objectives.