Author: Fiona Craig

Gold prices advanced in Friday’s Asian session, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and solid expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week. Markets were also preparing for the release of a key inflation metric later in the day.

Spot gold added 0.5% to $4,227.88 an ounce at 02:28 ET (07:28 GMT), while February U.S. gold futures dipped 0.3% to $4,256.95.

Fed expectations lift gold; PCE data in focus

The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near a five-week low as traders increasingly priced in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting. Hopes for additional easing in early 2025 also continued to build.

The softer dollar helped boost gold demand by reducing its cost for overseas buyers.

Recent U.S. data has pointed to a cooling labor market, strengthening the case for policy easing. Weekly unemployment claims dropped by 27,000 to 191,000 — their lowest level since September 2022 — while Wednesday’s ADP report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, the steepest fall in more than two years.

Attention now shifts to the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE price index, due later Friday. A weaker-than-expected figure could reinforce bets on further monetary easing. Still, rising U.S. Treasury yields remain a limiting factor, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Broader metals rally; copper surges over 2%

A weaker dollar also lifted other precious and base metals.

Silver futures jumped 2.2% to $58.77 per ounce, and platinum futures gained 0.8% to $1,673.60.

Copper posted one of the strongest moves of the session: benchmark LME copper climbed 2.1% to $11,675.20 a ton, while U.S. copper futures rose more than 2% to $5.47 a pound.

The U.S. dollar slipped again on Friday, extending its recent downturn ahead of an important inflation reading that could solidify expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting.

At 04:10 ET (09:10 GMT), the Dollar Index — which measures the greenback against six major peers — edged down 0.1% to 98.872, putting it on track for a weekly decline of roughly 0.5% and leaving it close to its lowest level in five weeks.

PCE data set to guide market expectations

The dollar’s persistent weakness reflects growing confidence among traders that the Fed will ease policy next week, especially after a run of data pointing to softness in the labor market. But clarity has been limited due to the record-length government shutdown, which delayed the monthly jobs report that typically would have been released on Friday.

As a result, investors are turning their attention to the PCE deflator — one of the Fed’s favored inflation indicators — even though the numbers are for September and not fully current.

LSEG data indicates that markets now assign about an 86% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday, with expectations building for additional cuts next year.

Traders are also watching speculation that President Donald Trump may nominate White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in early 2025.

As ING noted, “For the big dollar, it remains slightly offered on the view that the Fed will cut rates next week and that the arrival of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair will somehow make the Fed more dovish.”

Euro gains ahead of eurozone GDP release

The euro recovered further, with EUR/USD up 0.1% at 1.1654 and moving back toward Thursday’s three-week high of 1.1682.

German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped 1.5% in October, far exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.4% growth.

Later today, the eurozone will publish its final reading of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to confirm annual growth of 1.4% and a quarterly expansion of 0.2%.

ING added: “We have a slight bias that EUR/USD trades to 1.1700/1730 and continues to find support in the 1.1630/40 area.”

Sterling also firmed, with GBP/USD rising 0.1% to 1.3348 and nearing Thursday’s six-week high of 1.3385. The pound has been supported despite soft U.K. economic indicators in the aftermath of last week’s budget announcement.

Fresh Halifax housing data showed that U.K. home prices were unchanged in November after rising 0.5% in October.

According to ING, “Sterling continues to do well. We doubt this represents a major reassessment of U.K. sovereign risk, although we note that the 10-year Gilt swap spread has held onto its modest narrowing and is now at 48bp. This stood at 58bp in late September. We prefer to see the current sterling rally as a short squeeze.”

BOJ rate expectations push yen higher

In Asia, USD/JPY weakened 0.2% to 154.74 on renewed speculation that the Bank of Japan may lift interest rates at its December meeting. A report from Reuters suggested the Japanese government is increasingly open to a policy shift, while recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were seen as less dovish.

USD/CNY stayed near 7.0704, while AUD/USD climbed 0.3% to 0.6634, with the Australian dollar on pace for a weekly gain of around 1.3% following data hinting at underlying economic resilience.

U.S. equity futures pushed higher early Friday, with investors focused on the upcoming release of a delayed—but closely watched—inflation indicator. Traders are also preparing for fresh consumer sentiment data that may offer clues about household confidence heading into year-end. Meanwhile, media outlets report that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire major film, TV, and streaming assets from Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), a deal that could dramatically reshape Hollywood.

Futures inch upward

Wall Street futures posted mild gains in anticipation of an inflation reading that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance when officials meet next week.

As of 03:03 ET, Dow futures were up 27 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures added 17 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 116 points (0.5%).

On Thursday, the broader S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed.

Investors continued digesting the latest labor figures, including a drop in weekly unemployment claims to the lowest level since 2022 and a Chicago Fed estimate showing the U.S. jobless rate hovering near 4.4% in November.

Following delays caused by the recently concluded government shutdown, policymakers and investors have been relying more heavily on secondary data to gauge the health of the labor market—still a key determinant of the Fed’s interest-rate path.

PCE inflation set for release

With employment trends dominating recent headlines, inflation will take center stage again with the publication of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The Fed frequently cites elements of the PCE report when assessing the trajectory of prices.

The “core” PCE reading—excluding food and energy—is forecast at 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month for September. Analysts caution that the outdated timing, a result of the shutdown-related delay, limits the data’s immediacy.

With the November nonfarm payrolls report also pushed back, the PCE figures, along with updates on consumer income and spending, will be among the last major inputs available before the Fed’s December 9–10 policy meeting, where markets broadly expect another 25-basis-point rate cut.

Latest consumer sentiment reading on deck

The University of Michigan is scheduled to release its latest consumer sentiment survey. Strategists at ING said the gauge will be “more timely” than the PCE figures and may show a modest rebound in household optimism as the holiday shopping season picks up.

Earlier this month, the index had fallen to its lowest level in over three years amid concerns about the government shutdown’s economic fallout. Recent data also shows a stark divide: higher-income households remain resilient, while lower-income consumers are feeling the strain. The university also noted that wealthier respondents were buoyed by “strength in stock markets.”

Reports: Netflix in exclusive talks with Warner Bros Discovery

According to multiple outlets, Netflix is in exclusive negotiations to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s film and TV studios as well as key pieces of its streaming business. The reported offer values the units at $28 per share and includes brands such as HBO and DC Comics.

If completed, the deal would give Netflix control over some of the world’s most valuable media assets, including the blockbuster franchises “Game of Thrones” and “Harry Potter.”

Reports say Warner Bros recently received a second wave of bids from Netflix, Paramount Skydance, and Comcast following preliminary proposals. The Wall Street Journal said a formal agreement between Netflix and Warner Bros could be announced soon.

In after-hours trading Friday, Warner Bros Discovery shares moved higher, while Netflix dipped slightly.

Oil prices stabilize

Crude prices were steady after Thursday’s rally, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and by the continued lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Brent traded near $63.25 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.1% to $59.59.

Both benchmarks rose nearly 1% in the previous session. Brent was largely unchanged on the week, while WTI appeared set for a second consecutive weekly gain of about 1.5%.

The stalemate in U.S.–Russia negotiations has dampened hopes for an easing of sanctions on Russian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in global oil prices.

European equities posted modest gains on Friday, supported by a generally positive tone as investors awaited the delayed release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—an important input ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

As of 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.

Focus turns to U.S. inflation ahead of the Fed

The Federal Reserve convenes next week, and expectations for a rate cut remain firm, helping buoy risk appetite globally. This held true even after U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low on Thursday—a move economists largely attributed to seasonal distortions tied to Thanksgiving.

Labor-market conditions remain central to the Fed’s thinking, particularly after the ADP private payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in November employment. Later today, policymakers will also get long-delayed PCE deflator figures—albeit for September—offering insight into the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Market pricing for a 25-basis-point cut has increased sharply over the past two weeks, with futures implying an 88% probability of such a move, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

German industrial orders surprise to the upside

In Europe, German factory orders rebounded more strongly than anticipated in October, rising 1.5% on the month versus expectations for a 0.4% gain, data from the statistics office showed.

Despite the better-than-expected figure, Germany’s economic recovery is expected to remain muted next year as exports confront sluggish global demand, according to an early-Friday forecast from the German Economic Institute (IW). The group sees real GDP inching up just 0.1% in 2025 after two years of contraction, followed by a more meaningful 0.9% expansion in 2026.

Later in the session, the eurozone will publish its final read of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to reaffirm annual growth of 1.4% and a quarterly increase of 0.2%.

While the European Central Bank also meets later this month, investors broadly expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged at their final meeting of the year.

Swiss Re anticipates stronger profit in 2026

In corporate news, Swiss Re (TG:SR9) projected higher net earnings for 2026 and announced plans for a $500 million share buyback. The reinsurer expects net profit of roughly $4.5 billion next year, slightly above the more than $4.4 billion it anticipates for the current financial year.

Oil holds gains on geopolitical tensions and Fed expectations

Crude prices were steady on Friday, holding Thursday’s advance as stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine and firm expectations of a Fed rate cut lent support.

Brent crude futures edged up 0.1% to $63.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.1% to $57.69 per barrel.

Both benchmarks gained nearly 1% on Thursday. Brent is set to finish the week roughly flat, while WTI is on track for a 1.5% weekly rise—its second consecutive weekly gain.

The absence of progress in U.S.–Russia talks has dimmed hopes for a quick easing of sanctions on Russian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market.

Getlink SE (EU:GET) said its November traffic numbers continued to show softness, with truck volumes falling 7% from a year earlier — the same rate of decline recorded in October. For the year to date, truck crossings remain 3% lower.

The company noted that part of this downturn stems from “prolonged weakness in the automotive sector,” marking a direct acknowledgment of challenges tied to that industry.

Passenger shuttle activity also moved lower, slipping 3% versus last year. The drop marks a reversal from October’s 4% gain and stands in contrast to the 2% increase seen so far this year.

Getlink’s November update underscores a broader cooling in economic conditions that continues to weigh on demand for its cross-Channel transport services.

Airbus (EU:AIR) reported on Friday that it handed over 72 aircraft in November, bringing total deliveries for 2025 to 657 jets. The latest monthly tally follows what CEO Guillaume Faury called a weak period due to an industrial issue that temporarily disrupted operations.

With only one month left in the year, Airbus now needs to deliver 133 aircraft in December to meet its revised full-year goal of 790 planes. Hitting that figure would require one of the highest monthly delivery rates in the company’s history as it continues working through the production hurdles that have weighed on output throughout 2025.

Quantum Blockchain Technologies (LSE:QBT) said Friday that it has entered non-disclosure agreements with three ASIC manufacturers, marking a key step in its strategy to bring its Bitcoin mining software products to market.

Under the agreements, each manufacturer will provide QBT’s Milan-based testing team with access to their mining rigs as well as their source code. This will enable the company to install the software version of its Method C AI Oracle—first introduced on November 12—directly onto third-party hardware.

QBT previously began joint analysis of the hardware variant of Method C AI Oracle with one of these ASIC partners, a collaboration first disclosed on April 8. However, because integrating the hardware version into ASIC chip architecture could take as long as 18 months, both sides agreed to prioritize the software implementation to accelerate potential commercialization.

The company also signed a separate NDA with a Bitcoin mining pool, with the goal of helping the pool’s nodes produce “better quality hash rates” and mine more Bitcoin. This method may allow QBT to avoid installing modified operating systems across every rig connected to that pool.

On the intellectual property front, QBT said it is working with patent counsel to address examiner questions in Europe and the U.S., describing the process as routine for active applications. The firm is also collaborating with a startup that builds solutions based on Blockscale Intel ASICs to evaluate its Methods A, B, and C across multiple SHA-256 architectures.

CEO and Executive Chairman Francesco Gardin said: “The Company is now engaged with the ASIC manufacturers it has been targeting over the past year. The Board believe QBT’s technology proposition is unique within the Bitcoin industry, which is the main reason why there is such a high level of interest from mining companies assessing our technology.”

Big Yellow Group PLC (LSE:BYG) saw its shares slip 5.3% on Friday after Blackstone Europe confirmed it would not move forward with a takeover bid for the self-storage operator.

The announcement came shortly after Big Yellow stated on Dec. 4 that it had determined there was “no basis to continue discussions” with Blackstone and therefore would not extend the put-up-or-shut-up deadline of Dec. 8, 2025.

In its own regulatory update, Blackstone said it has no intention of making an offer for the company, triggering Rule 2.8 restrictions under the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. However, the firm noted that it may set aside these restrictions under specific scenarios — including with the consent of Big Yellow’s board, if a third party announces a firm intention to bid, if Big Yellow launches a Rule 9 waiver or reverse takeover, or if the Takeover Panel determines that circumstances have materially changed.

Rothschild & Co is advising Blackstone on the matter.

The end of takeover discussions has weighed on Big Yellow’s shares, removing acquisition-driven speculation that had supported the stock and prompting investors to reassess the company’s outlook as it continues independently.

Shares in Greggs (LSE:GRG) surged more than 5% after J.P. Morgan initiated coverage of the UK food-to-go chain with an “overweight” rating and a December 2027 price target of 2,110p. The target implies roughly 35% upside from the stock’s 1,590p closing level on Dec. 4. The bank pointed to a valuation sitting at cyclical lows despite what it calls best-in-class operating performance and multiple catalysts for recovery.

According to the note, J.P. Morgan’s investment thesis rests on three core themes: the company’s structurally strong unit economics; a reset valuation following a 40% year-to-date share price decline versus a 15% cut to consensus earnings; and the potential for both earnings and free cash flow to turn sharply higher from fiscal 2026 as fresh distribution capacity ramps up.

The analysts highlighted that Greggs is currently trading at around a 40% discount to its 10-year average multiples across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EV/Sales, while also sitting below valuation levels seen at UK supermarkets and peers such as B&M, Zabka, and Domino’s UK.

J.P. Morgan describes Greggs — a vertically integrated bakery and food-to-go operator — as a “structural winner,” emphasizing its 61.7% gross margin in 2024, nearly double the 30–35% range reported by comparable retailers. The team credits the company’s margin strength to its in-house production model and streamlined product assortment.

The broker also cited standout productivity metrics: sales densities of £769 per square foot and underlying profit of £162 per square foot, placing Greggs ahead of most discounters and convenience operators and trailing only Aldi and Sainsbury’s convenience formats on profitability per square foot. Return on invested capital is above 20%, which the analysts view as among the strongest in the sector.

J.P. Morgan’s base-case outlook assumes company-managed like-for-like sales growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, rising toward 3–3.5% in subsequent years. Gross margins are forecast at 61.2% for 2026–27, with gradual improvement to 61.8%. Underlying EBIT margins are expected to climb from 8.4% in 2025 to 8.5% in 2027, approaching 9.8% by 2030. Diluted underlying EPS is projected to grow from 117.23p in 2025 to 236.68p in 2032.

Management guidance suggests elevated capital expenditure through 2026 as new distribution hubs in Derby and Kettering are built out, with a peak of £300 million in 2025 before capex trends back toward roughly 6% of revenue. Free cash flow, which is anticipated to be negative £64 million in 2025, is projected to rebound to £109 million in 2027, £205 million in 2029, and £228 million by 2032.

The analysts expect the new distribution centres to enhance national capacity and underpin Greggs’ plan to increase its store base from 2,618 to 3,000 by 2030. They also argued that peak investment should not be mistaken for a long-term rise in capital intensity and noted management’s confidence in substantial remaining “white space” with minimal cannibalisation risk.

Additional growth drivers flagged by J.P. Morgan include the company’s expanding evening-trade contribution—which now exceeds 9% of company-managed sales—as well as continued momentum in digital ordering and delivery channels.

J.P. Morgan’s scenario analysis assigns a bull-case valuation of 2,430p, implying up to 53% upside, while its bear-case target of 1,340p suggests 16% potential downside. The firm said this range reflects an asymmetric risk-reward profile tilted in favour of further gains.

SkinBioTherapeutics (LSE:SBTX) has reported a strong set of full-year results for 2025, highlighted by a 284% surge in revenue to £4.6 million. Growth was fueled by rising direct sales and expanding royalty income tied to its AxisBiotix™ and Dermatonics product lines. During the year, the company completed a commercial partnership with Croda and launched Zenakine™ into the global cosmetics market, while also extending its retail reach through an exclusive distribution agreement with Superdrug Stores plc. The acquisitions of Bio-Tech Solutions and Dermatonics have strengthened both production capacity and financial performance, reinforcing SkinBioTherapeutics’ position within the growing skin health sector.

Despite these operational gains, the company continues to face meaningful financial pressures. Ongoing losses and cash burn weigh heavily on its stock assessment, and technical signals remain bearish. Although recent strategic achievements could deliver longer-term upside, the outlook is constrained until those developments translate into improved profitability and stronger financial stability.

More about SkinBioTherapeutics

SkinBioTherapeutics is a life sciences company focused on improving skin health using its proprietary SkinBiotix® platform, developed by researchers at the University of Manchester. Its strategy spans five key pillars across skincare and the gut–skin axis, delivering products both directly to consumers and through retail partners such as Superdrug Stores plc. The company also maintains commercial collaborations, including its partnership with Croda plc.