Author: Fiona Craig

Europa Oil & Gas (LSE:EOG) reported interim revenue of £1.5 million, broadly unchanged from the comparable period, alongside an increase in gross profit and a narrower pre-tax loss.

The company’s cash position increased to £2.8 million following a £4.1 million equity raise. Europa said the proceeds will be used to fund drilling at the Barracuda prospect and provide additional working capital.

Administrative expenses increased from the prior-period level as the company resumed previously deferred activities and expanded its business development work.

Barracuda Well Expected in First Half of 2027

In Equatorial Guinea, Europa continued to progress a farm-out arrangement under which partner Fuhai is expected to fund most of the cost of an exploration well at the Barracuda prospect.

The company said the timing of the well has moved to the first half of 2027 as final regulatory approval remains outstanding.

Europa has exposure to the Equatorial Guinea acreage through its interest in Antler Global.

Inishkea West and Cloughton Licences Extended

Elsewhere in the portfolio, Europa secured licence extensions covering the Inishkea West prospect offshore Ireland and the Cloughton gas discovery in the UK.

The company continued to market both projects to prospective farm-in partners.

Europa also carried out development and optimisation work across its Wressle, West Firsby and Crosby Warren assets. UK onshore production volumes declined during the period, while the company received higher oil prices.

Europa Oil & Gas is an AIM-quoted exploration, development and production company with oil and gas interests in the UK, Ireland and West Africa. Its portfolio includes Inishkea West in Ireland, Equatorial Guinea acreage through Antler Global and UK onshore assets including Wressle and Crosby Warren.

Alien Metals (LSE:UFO) reported exploration results from associate GreenTech Metals at the Ayshia deposit, part of the Whundo copper-zinc-gold project in Western Australia.

Diamond drilling returned an intersection of 4.76 metres grading 7.13% copper, including 3.44 metres at 9.43% copper. The interval also contained gold, silver and zinc.

According to the company, the drilling extended known mineralisation down plunge at Ayshia and could contribute to an expansion of the existing JORC mineral resource at Whundo.

Whundo Resource Update Planned

GreenTech plans to prepare an updated mineral resource estimate for Whundo later this year, incorporating results from its exploration programme.

Alien Metals owns approximately 10% of GreenTech Metals, providing it with an equity interest in the company as exploration work at Whundo progresses.

Alien also retains a 30% free-carried interest in the adjacent Munni Munni project, another asset being advanced by GreenTech.

Alien Metals Portfolio

Alien Metals is an AIM-quoted mining exploration and development company with projects focused on iron ore, base metals and precious metals in Australia’s Pilbara region and the Northern Territory.

Its portfolio includes the 90%-owned Hancock Iron Ore Project and the Georgina Basin IOCG Project. The company also holds minority interests in the Munni Munni PGM and Elizabeth Hill silver joint ventures, alongside equity holdings in companies including GreenTech Metals.

ATC Music Group (LSE:ATC) reported a 39% increase in revenue to £30.6 million for the first half of 2026, with growth coming from both organic activity and acquisitions across its representation, services and events divisions.

The group’s adjusted operating EBITDA loss narrowed to £0.45 million, approximately half the level recorded in the comparable period, while its loss after tax decreased to £2.1 million. Cash and cash equivalents stood at £20.3 million.

Group Rebrands and Adds Robbie Williams

During the period, the company changed its name from All Things Considered Group to ATC Music Group and appointed a new Chief Technology and Product Officer.

ATC also added Robbie Williams to its artist management roster.

The group’s representation business covers artist and live management, while its services operations include merchandising, e-commerce, digital marketing and technology. Its events division is involved in venue ownership and the production and promotion of live shows.

Acquisitions Expand Digital Capabilities

ATC acquired Push and Cirkay as part of an expansion of its digital marketing and fan-engagement operations.

The company is also developing a multi-year technology roadmap intended to bring fan data together across its operations and support direct-to-fan analytics and audience engagement.

ATC reported advance ticket sales for its Hamlet production and said it has a pipeline of promoted events and potential acquisitions.

The London-headquartered company operates internationally, with offices in Los Angeles, New York and Europe, providing services across artist management, live representation, merchandising, e-commerce, promotion, livestreaming and fan engagement.

Keystone Law Group Plc (LSE:KEYS) reported higher revenue and adjusted profit for the six months ended 31 July 2026, while the company said it expects full-year 2027 revenue and profits to exceed current market expectations.

Revenue increased 22.5% year on year to £66.3 million, while adjusted profit before tax rose 31.3% to £9.6 million. Net cash increased to £10.5 million.

The financial performance supported an increase in the interim ordinary dividend as well as the payment of a special dividend.

Fee Earner Numbers Increase

Keystone added 23 new Principals during the period and increased its total number of fee earners to 682. The increase came despite what the company described as a softer recruitment market.

The group operates a platform-based legal services model under which its self-employed Principal lawyers receive up to 75% of their billings, supported by a central office and the company’s technology infrastructure.

Keystone serves clients ranging from start-ups to multinational companies and high net worth individuals.

Keystone Expands AI Tools

The company also continued to invest in its technology platform during the first half, including the rollout of CoCounsel Legal as part of its suite of artificial intelligence tools.

Keystone’s model provides its lawyers with central infrastructure and technology while allowing them autonomy over how, when and where they work. The company has more than 500 self-employed Principal lawyers and operates in what it estimates to be a £14 billion addressable UK legal market.

Board Expects Results Above Market Forecasts

Following the first-half performance, Keystone’s board said it now anticipates that revenue and profits for the full 2027 financial year will exceed current market expectations.

The company, which has been publicly listed since its 2017 initial public offering, said its strategy remains focused on organic growth supported by investment in its technology platform and lawyer network.

The Federal Reserve could deliver two quarter-point interest-rate increases before the end of 2026, according to UBS analysts, who revised their expectations following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and recent U.S. labour-market data.

UBS analysts including Jonathan Pingle and Abigail Watt interpreted Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks as supporting further monetary policy tightening.

During the event, Warsh said policymakers “must be confident” that underlying inflation is declining towards the central bank’s 2% objective “clearly and at sufficient speed.” If that condition is not met, he said, “we have work to do.” Warsh also emphasised that interest rates are the Fed’s main monetary policy tool.

“[Warsh] threw down the gauntlet. Now, with his credibility on the line, we expect he has little choice but to put his monetary policy where his mouth is,” the UBS analysts said.

September Increase Remains a Close Call for UBS

UBS now forecasts a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, followed by another quarter-point increase in December.

The analysts cautioned that the forecast is “not high conviction” and could change in response to economic data.

In particular, they said an August consumer price index reading below expectations this week could “undo this assessment.”

Market pricing currently indicates a roughly 60% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 25 basis points this month.

Those expectations have also been supported by U.S. employment figures released last week, which showed the economy added substantially more jobs than forecast during August. A resilient employment environment can contribute to the case for raising rates, although higher borrowing costs can also weigh on subsequent job growth.

Warsh Comments and Market Pricing Expected to Shape Decision

UBS said several factors could influence the outcome of the September meeting beyond the latest economic releases.

“We see the September decision as a close call. That is partly because we expect […] Warsh to weigh the principles he laid out alongside market pricing, his assessment of how rates have moved in between meetings, and the views and argument of his colleagues,” the UBS analysts said.

The bank’s forecast therefore remains conditional on incoming inflation data as well as Warsh’s assessment of financial conditions, market expectations and the positions of other Fed policymakers.

Barclays increased its year-end S&P 500 forecast for 2026 by 150 points to 7,950, citing second-quarter earnings performance, including results from technology companies. The bank left its 2027 index target unchanged at 8,800.

Alongside the index revision, Barclays raised its fiscal 2026 EPS projection to $365 from $337. Its estimate for fiscal 2027 was increased to $414 from $389.

The bank’s base-case assumptions incorporate EPS growth of 30.8% during 2026 and a price-to-earnings multiple of 21.8 times.

During the second quarter, headline earnings per share among S&P 500 companies increased more than 50% from a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, EPS growth was 29.3%, while sales increased 13.3%.

Technology Companies Account for Earnings Growth

Big Tech EPS increased 35% during the quarter, accelerating from 30% in the preceding period. The remainder of the technology sector recorded EPS growth of 88%.

Strategists led by Venu Krishna reported that 86.2% of companies exceeded consensus forecasts, above the long-term median of 75% recorded since 1998.

The strategists nevertheless said that “markets still penalized misses much more heavily than they rewarded beats this quarter,” citing the hurdle rate associated with elevated and rising yields.

Alphabet (NASDAQ) and Amazon (NASDAQ) generated most of the upside surprise among Big Tech companies, according to Barclays, while Meta (NASDAQ) fell short of expectations.

The bank forecasts hyperscaler capital expenditure of more than $1.1 trillion in 2027, representing growth of 67% from the prior year. Barclays expects Alphabet and Amazon to account for the largest contributions, with Meta close behind.

Earnings Drive Barclays’ Higher Index Target

Barclays did not increase the valuation multiples used in its sum-of-the-parts framework, with the strategists describing their assumptions as “deliberately conservative.”

For 2026, the framework applies a 23.0-times multiple to Big Tech and a 22.0-times multiple to other technology companies. The remainder of the S&P 500 is assigned a multiple of 21.0 times.

“The result is that earnings do most of the heavy lifting in our target increase,” the strategists wrote.

Barclays set its 2026 bull-case S&P 500 target at 8,350 and its bear-case scenario at 6,750. Its corresponding 2027 scenarios are 9,800 and 7,800.

Utilities Rating Moved to Neutral

Separately, Barclays changed its view on Utilities from Positive to Neutral.

The bank cited regulatory issues including “failure to advance meaningful wildfire liability reform in California, and bipartisan pushback against data center permitting in several U.S. states.”

Barclays continues to hold a Positive view on Technology, Media, and Telecommunications and Industrials, while maintaining a Negative view on the Consumer complex. Its stance on the remaining sectors is Neutral.

Risk assets have continued to withstand a series of potential market pressures since 2022, with HSBC strategist Max Kettner attributing the pattern to factors ranging from earnings growth to changes in monetary policy tools and market structure.

Kettner said in a Tuesday note that markets have encountered higher inflation and interest rates, turmoil among U.S. regional banks, tariffs, a cryptocurrency market decline and the unwinding of carry trades during the period.

“Yet it seems as if risk assets continue to ignore every negative catalyst,” he wrote, calling their resilience “nothing short of breathtaking.”

HSBC Strategist Points to Earnings, Growth and Asset Allocation

One explanation identified by Kettner is the performance of corporate earnings and economic growth. He said consensus estimates have consistently underestimated their resilience, including outside the technology and artificial intelligence sectors.

Changes in the relationship between equities and fixed income have also contributed, according to the strategist. A positive equity-bond correlation has reduced the role of bonds as a portfolio diversifier, which Kettner said has helped keep equity allocations elevated.

A wealth effect has also contributed to higher valuations, he said.

Kettner identified several additional structural factors, including an expansion of the tools available to central banks since the global financial crisis. He also noted that developed economies are less dependent on oil relative to economic activity than they were during the 1970s and 1980s.

Other factors cited in the note include comparatively low leverage outside government sectors, changes in the quality of credit indices, quicker price discovery and portfolio rebalancing by passive funds.

U.S. Market Exposure Among Potential Sources of Risk

Kettner said the U.S. represents the main potential source of risk to the current environment because of its comparatively large share of global equity and credit markets.

Among the developments that could affect risk assets, he cited an increase in corporate taxation.

Below-target inflation could also result in equities and bonds returning to a negative correlation, changing one of the conditions that Kettner identified as supporting current asset allocations.

The strategist additionally cited the possibility that central banks could withdraw the support markets expect during periods of financial stress. Kettner said he finds such an outcome difficult to envisage given the degree to which equities, wealth effects and financial conditions have become interconnected.