Author: Fiona Craig

Young’s Brewery (LSE:YNGA) reported another milestone set of interim results on Thursday, delivering record first-half figures and launching a £10 million share repurchase plan.

For the 26 weeks to September 29, the pub group posted £263.6 million in revenue, up 5.4% year-on-year, while adjusted profit before tax climbed 9.9% to £31.1 million. The company said robust sales momentum and margin improvements helped offset persistent cost pressures from wage growth and broader inflation.

Like-for-like sales rose 5.7%, more than double the 2.7% pace seen across the wider market. Warm spring and early summer weather helped drive footfall, particularly across the brewer’s riverside pubs and outdoor trading spaces.

“Our proven strategy and unwavering commitment to operating a premium, well-invested managed house estate continues to be reflected in these results,” said Chief Executive Simon Dodd.

Young’s deployed £12.6 million into its estate during the period and cut net debt by 13.3% to £221.8 million. The group also lifted its interim dividend by 6% to 12.22 pence per share.

Momentum has carried into the current quarter, with like-for-like revenue over the past thirteen weeks up 4.2%. Christmas bookings are running 22% ahead of last year at the same point.

Even with the solid start to the second half, Young’s flagged lingering economic uncertainty and possible headwinds linked to November’s UK Budget, noting it will remain cautious despite the strong trading backdrop.

Oil prices dipped again on Thursday, adding to the prior session’s selloff, after new inventory data from the United States heightened concerns about an increasingly oversupplied market.

As of 06:45 GMT, Brent crude traded flat at $62.71 a barrel following a 3.8% drop on Wednesday. U.S. WTI crude slipped by 3 cents to $58.46, extending the previous session’s 4.2% decline.

According to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude stocks grew by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending November 7. Gasoline and distillate stocks were reported lower.

Wednesday’s decline accelerated after OPEC indicated that global oil supply is likely to exceed fuel demand in 2026—a shift away from the group’s earlier expectations of a deficit.

Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, said: “Recent (price) weakness seems to be driven by OPEC’s revision of supply-demand balance in 2026 in its monthly report, which confirms the group is now acknowledging the possibility of a supply glut in 2026, in contrast to its more bullish stance all along.”

He added: “This falls in place with the recent decision to pause the unwinding of voluntary production cuts in 1Q. Given that this is just a shift to a more realistic reading of the market, it doesn’t change fundamentals, hence the market reaction seems overdone.”

The projected surplus is tied to increased production from OPEC+, which includes both cartel members and partners like Russia.

Yang An at Haitong Securities noted: “OPEC’s signal of a supply surplus unleashed previously pent-up bearish sentiment in the previous session, while a U.S. crude inventory build added pressure, pushing oil prices to continue to slide on Thursday morning.”

Traders now await official inventory data from the U.S. EIA due later in the day. Additional reports on Wednesday further weighed on market sentiment.

The EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil output is on course to set an even bigger record this year. It also expects global oil inventories to keep rising through 2026 as supply growth continues to outpace consumption.

Despite the bearish backdrop, some analysts believe crude will find a floor near current levels.

Sarkar said: “There should be considerable support to oil prices around $60/bbl, especially given there could be short-term disruption to Russian export flows once stricter sanctions kick in.”

Gold prices advanced again on Thursday in Asian hours, extending their recent climb as investors continued to take a defensive stance toward the U.S. economy—even after lawmakers agreed to end the country’s record-breaking government shutdown.

The metal has benefited over the past week from a run of soft private labor indicators in the U.S., which initially boosted expectations of a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, with markets scaling back those expectations in recent days, gold’s momentum has slowed somewhat.

Strong and persistent central bank demand—especially from China—has also been a key tailwind. Figures showed the People’s Bank of China increased its bullion reserves for the twelfth consecutive month in September.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,210.63 per ounce, while December futures held firm at $4,214.60 per ounce as of 00:06 ET (05:06 GMT).

Gold supported by caution around U.S. economic outlook after shutdown ends

Gains this week have come even as Washington moves to reopen after a nearly 43-day shutdown. President Donald Trump signed the funding bill Wednesday evening after the House approved the measure earlier in the day, allowing key government agencies to restart normal operations and release delayed economic reports.

Upcoming data for October and November is widely expected to reflect the toll of the prolonged shutdown. Trump said the disruption cost the U.S. economy $1.5 trillion.

In a note, ANZ analysts wrote: “The prospect of weak economic data following the US government shutdown also helped push gold higher,” noting that heavy central bank accumulation and broader macro uncertainty were also at play.

Other precious metals joined gold in the green. Spot platinum inched up 0.1% to $1,620.15 per ounce, while spot silver jumped 1.7% to $54.1665 per ounce.

Metal markets remained upbeat even as traders dramatically reduced the odds of a December Fed rate cut. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-bps reduction now sits at 50.4%, down from 62.4% just a day earlier.

Copper rises on optimism from U.S. reopening and expectations of Chinese stimulus

Industrial metals also moved higher, with copper holding onto its strong performance of recent weeks.

London Metal Exchange benchmark copper futures gained 0.2% to $10,933.80 a ton, while COMEX contracts climbed 0.7% to $5.1215 per pound.

Sentiment improved after the end of the U.S. shutdown, raising hopes that domestic business activity will face fewer hurdles and that demand for industrial metals may rebound.

Copper also received support from China, where policymakers have pledged new stimulus efforts, including measures tied to the country’s latest five-year plan aimed at boosting industrial output and strengthening domestic manufacturing.

The U.S. dollar drifted lower on Thursday after President Donald Trump approved legislation to end the country’s record-breaking government shutdown, lifting market sentiment, while the British pound struggled to advance following lackluster U.K. growth figures.

By 03:50 ET (08:50 GMT), the Dollar Index — which measures the greenback against six major peers — slipped 0.2% to 99.150, hovering near a one-month low.

Safe-haven dollar softens as federal funding resumes

The dollar lost some of its defensive appeal after Trump signed the spending bill late Wednesday in the Oval Office, reopening government operations after the House of Representatives voted through the measure.

The shutdown — poised to enter its 43rd day before the deal was struck — had been the longest in U.S. history, disrupting numerous federal agencies, especially aviation safety and transport oversight. It also delayed the release of key economic indicators that help guide Federal Reserve decision-making.

With federal departments restarting, markets now expect a flood of postponed data, including the upcoming monthly employment report.

Analysts at ING noted: “The White House said October payrolls and CPI data are unlikely to be released, meaning volatility will take time to pick up.”

Pound struggles despite dollar weakness

Sterling saw little benefit from the softer dollar, with GBP/USD trading flat around 1.3133 after fresh figures showed a sluggish performance from the U.K. economy.

GDP expanded only 0.1% between July and September, down from 0.3% in the prior quarter. The monthly reading for September showed a 0.1% contraction, raising pressure on the Bank of England to return to rate cuts after its recent pause.

ING commented:
“This complicates the job of Chancellor Rachel Reeves a bit more ahead of the UK Budget, where she’ll try to reassure markets with fiscally prudent measures, whilst trying not to dampen growth excessively or stoke up inflation.”

EUR/USD added 0.2% to reach 1.1612 ahead of eurozone industrial production figures expected to rebound after a sharp drop last month.

ING analysts added:
“EUR/USD has been attempting a break above 1.160, and while we are bullish on the pair into year-end, we admit a decisive move higher may be a bit premature. Some soft U.S. data is needed before 1.170 becomes a realistic short-term target for EUR/USD. For now, we expect more range-bound trading.”

Yen nears levels that previously prompted intervention

USD/JPY held near 154.77 in Asia after briefly topping the 155 mark for the first time in nearly ten months. The yen also touched a fresh all-time low against the euro as sentiment toward the currency remained negative.

Japan has intervened at similar levels in past episodes, and traders are now watching to see whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government considers stepping in again.

USD/CNY slipped 0.2% to 7.0966 after a firmer-than-expected midpoint fixing from the People’s Bank of China. Meanwhile, AUD/USD gained 0.6% to 0.6577 following stronger Australian employment data that tempered expectations of further Reserve Bank rate cuts.

U.S. markets were set to open higher on Thursday after President Donald Trump signed a funding bill that officially ends the longest federal government shutdown on record. With Washington back to work, traders are preparing for the return of delayed economic reports, although the White House has cautioned that several major October indicators may never be released. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems lifted its full-year guidance on the back of surging AI-related demand, and the latest U.K. data shows only marginal growth in the British economy during the third quarter.

Futures edge upward

U.S. index futures moved higher early Thursday as investors welcomed the resolution of the prolonged shutdown.

As of 02:59 ET, Dow futures were up 89 points (+0.2%), S&P 500 futures gained 6 points (+0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 37 points (+0.2%).

The previous trading session ended with a mixed performance: the Dow Jones Industrial Average set another record close, the S&P 500 posted a small gain, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped as investors rotated out of high-valuation tech names.

Sentiment took an additional hit after a report suggested ChatGPT developer OpenAI may be dealing with much higher expenses and cash burn than expected—adding to worries surrounding overstretched AI-linked stocks.

Even so, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) surged 9% after unveiling an ambitious $100 billion revenue target for its data-center division.

Trump signs funding bill, officially closing chapter on 43-day shutdown

Late Wednesday, President Donald Trump signed legislation reopening the U.S. government, concluding the 43-day shutdown—the longest in U.S. history. The bill cleared the House in a 222–209 vote earlier in the day, mostly along party lines, after receiving Senate approval earlier in the week.

The Oval Office signing effectively reinstated federal workers and ensured the resumption of paychecks, reversing weeks of forced furloughs. However, the core dispute over expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies—central to the budget standoff—remains unresolved.

For Wall Street, the end of the shutdown means the return of key economic releases that policymakers and investors rely on. As ING analysts noted: “With a bit of luck, we may see job numbers starting early next week,” though the administration has also warned that October’s jobs and inflation data may never be released. Such gaps could leave the Federal Reserve with limited information ahead of its December rate meeting.

Cisco boosts annual outlook

Shares of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) jumped more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company upgraded its full-year financial outlook.

Riding the wave of AI-driven data-center expansion, Cisco now expects fiscal 2026 revenue of $60.2 billion to $61 billion—up from its earlier forecast of $59–60 billion. It also raised its adjusted earnings-per-share projection to $4.08–$4.14 from $4–$4.06.

Cisco also said it anticipates generating $3 billion in AI infrastructure-related revenue in its current fiscal year. The company’s stock is up roughly 25% year-to-date as businesses accelerate cloud and data-center investment to support AI workloads.

U.K. economy gains only slightly in Q3

The U.K. economy posted only modest growth during the third quarter and contracted in September as the country heads toward a budget that is expected to include significant tax increases.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP rising 0.1% between July and September, after a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter. Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in September, and annual growth slowed to 1.3%.

Gold pushes above $4,200

Gold prices climbed above $4,200 per ounce on Thursday, extending their recent rally amid lingering uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook despite the end of the shutdown.

The metal has strengthened over the past week following weak private-sector labour figures that increased expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the pace of gains has moderated amid reports that Fed officials remain split on whether easing is warranted next month.

Strong central-bank demand—especially from China—continues to support bullion. Recent data show the People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for the twelfth consecutive month in September.

European markets traded mostly higher on Thursday, lifted by the end of the record-long U.S. government shutdown, while fresh data showed the U.K. economy struggling to gain momentum in the third quarter.

By 08:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX inched up 0.1% and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.6%, whereas the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3%.

U.S. Shutdown Ends

Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill late Wednesday that restored government funding and officially ended the longest shutdown in American history.

The bill—which keeps federal operations funded through January 30—passed the House by a 222–209 vote, with support from 216 Republicans and six Democrats, after clearing the Senate earlier in the week.

The multi-week shutdown had caused significant disruption across federal agencies, with aviation and travel safety especially hard hit. Staffing shortages led to thousands of cancelled flights nationwide, adding pressure to U.S. economic activity.

U.K. Growth Nearly Stagnant

Back in Europe, new figures confirmed that the U.K. economy barely expanded in the third quarter, underscoring the sluggish backdrop as finance minister Rachel Reeves prepares to present the upcoming budget.

GDP grew just 0.1% in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in the prior quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics. In September alone, output fell 0.1%.

James Bentley, director at Financial Markets Online, said: “Last week the Bank of England said that, in its view, inflation has peaked. Despite narrowly voting to not cut the base rate immediately, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee left the door wide open to a December cut.”

He added: “Today’s GDP numbers give the Bank every reason to walk through that door next month. With inflationary fears dissipating, its priority will be kickstarting the UK’s moribund growth – and a December rate cut now looks all but assured.”

Corporate Earnings Continue

European corporate news remained active:

• Siemens (TG:SIE) posted record profit and free cash flow for fiscal 2025, marking its third straight year of record earnings as strength in Digital Industries and Smart Infrastructure offset weaker Mobility orders.
• Merck KGaA (NYSE:MRK) lifted the lower end of its 2025 outlook after stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, supported by solid healthcare and life sciences performance.
• Deutsche Telekom (TG:DTE) raised its 2025 guidance following the inclusion of UScellular, and said it plans a higher dividend after reporting stronger Q3 revenue.
• Aviva (LSE:AV.) projected 11% annual growth in operating EPS over the next three years, benefiting from enhanced cost synergies after integrating Direct Line.
• Burberry (LSE:BRBY) delivered better-than-estimated second-quarter comparable sales, signalling early traction in its turnaround plan and stabilizing demand in China.
• Hapag-Lloyd (TG:HLAG) reported a 50% decline in nine-month profit and lowered the top end of its annual guidance, citing market volatility and rising costs.
• Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) reiterated its 2025 outlook after strong October trading supported by Civil Aerospace, Power Systems and Defence.

Oil Prices Extend Losses

Crude prices moved slightly lower, adding to Wednesday’s decline, as rising U.S. stockpiles renewed demand worries.

Brent slipped 0.1% to $62.63 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.2% to $58.39. Both benchmarks lost around 4% on Wednesday after API data showed U.S. inventories climbed by 1.3 million barrels in the week to November 7.

Oil also weakened after OPEC projected that global supplies will marginally exceed demand in 2026.

Shawbrook Group plc (LSE:SHAW) reported another quarter of solid expansion on Thursday, marking its first trading update since rejoining the public markets. The specialist lender continued to grow across both its lending operations and deposit franchise.

As of September 30, the loan book had risen to £18.25 billion, up from £15.93 billion at the end of December 2024. The increase was driven by strong organic demand in the group’s specialist Commercial and Retail divisions, along with the acquisition of ThinCats Group Limited, which contributed an additional £0.6 billion in loans.

The deposit base also expanded, growing 15% on an annualised basis to £17.58 billion compared with £15.80 billion at year-end 2024.

Credit quality remained stable, with a cost of risk of 45 basis points and an arrears ratio of 1.9%. Shawbrook’s adjusted underlying return on tangible equity held firm at 17.8%. Capital levels were solid as well, with a CET1 ratio of 12.6% and a total capital ratio of 15.1% on a post-IPO pro forma basis.

Commenting on the results, Chief Executive Officer Marcelino Castrillo said: “In our first trading update since returning to the public markets, we are pleased to report continued growth across our diversified lending markets and deposit franchise, demonstrating the strength of our business model and disciplined execution.”

The quarter also saw the completion of several strategic priorities, including the acquisition of ThinCats, the continued expansion of Shawbrook’s Digital Savings platform into Business Savings originations, and a new partnership with Hargreaves Lansdown to support its first branded cash savings product.

Shawbrook’s shares began trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange on November 4.

The group said it continues to evaluate its exposure to historic regulated motor finance lending but expects any potential redress to be immaterial based on early findings.

Looking ahead, Shawbrook outlined medium-term goals that include low double-digit annual loan book growth, a mid-30s underlying cost-to-income ratio, mid-to-high-teens annual growth in underlying profit before tax, and a high-teens adjusted underlying return on tangible equity. The lender plans to issue its first dividend in fiscal year 2026.

Grafton Group PLC (LSE:GFTU) saw its shares fall 2.5% on Thursday after the building materials distributor reported slower trading momentum in recent months, even as it reiterated that full-year profit guidance remains intact.

The company posted group revenue of £2.13 billion for the ten months to October 31, an 11.5% increase from £1.91 billion a year earlier. However, like-for-like daily revenue growth eased to 1.6% in the four months to October, compared with 2.4% in the first half, with activity softening further in September and October.

Despite this slowdown, Grafton said it is still on course to deliver full-year adjusted operating profit in line with analyst expectations of around £182.2 million. Recent acquisitions—including HVAC distributor Salvador Escoda and HSS Hire Ireland—also contributed to group performance.

Chief Executive Eric Born said: “The strength of Grafton’s business model is evident in our performance year to date. Overall revenue increased by over 11 per cent supported by continuing growth in building materials distribution in Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands and in retailing and manufacturing, helping to offset market weakness in the UK and Finland.”

Performance varied across the group’s regional markets. In Ireland, both Chadwicks and Woodie’s saw a softer period in September and October. In the UK, distribution revenue slipped 0.5% on a like-for-like basis, with activity deteriorating toward the end of the period.

Growth in the Netherlands slowed to 0.7%, while Finland continued to struggle, recording a 6.4% decline in like-for-like revenue. Spain remained the standout performer, delivering 5.7% like-for-like growth supported by a strong summer sales season for air-conditioning and ventilation products.

The group also completed its seventh share buyback programme on November 7, repurchasing 2.74 million ordinary shares at an average price of £9.14, returning £25 million to shareholders.

Aviva (LSE:AV.) delivered a confident third-quarter update, raising its financial ambitions after reporting broad-based momentum and early gains from its acquisition of Direct Line. The insurer said it now expects to meet its 2026 objectives in 2025—one year ahead of schedule.

Despite the upbeat message, the stock fell more than 4% in early London trading.

The company introduced upgraded medium-term goals, including average annual operating EPS growth of 11% between 2025 and 2028. It also aims to push its IFRS return on equity above 20% by 2028 and generate over £7 billion in cash remittances during the 2026–2028 period.

“Over the last five years we have transformed Aviva, delivering again and again for our customers and shareholders. We continue to make excellent progress and now expect to achieve our financial targets in 2025, one year early,” said Amanda Blanc, CEO of Aviva.

Aviva noted that the integration of Direct Line is moving ahead faster than anticipated. The group raised its cost-synergy target to £225 million—almost double the original figure—and expects more than £500 million in capital synergies after regulatory approval is secured.

Management also reiterated that share buybacks will resume next year, with a larger programme planned due to the increased share count.

Aviva expects operating profit of roughly £2.2 billion for 2025 and said solvency remains strong, ending Q3 with a shareholder cover ratio of 177%. Blanc added that the company’s outlook has “never been better,” pointing to accelerating growth, rising returns, and a plan for more than 75% of its business mix to be capital-light by 2028.

The general insurance division remained a standout performer, with premiums rising 12% to £10 billion in the first nine months. Growth included a 17% jump in the U.K. and Ireland and steady improvements in Canada.

The combined operating ratio improved to 94.4% on an undiscounted basis thanks to stronger pricing and reduced weather-related losses. In wealth, Aviva recorded £8.3 billion in net flows, taking assets to £224 billion, while retirement sales held firm despite difficult comparisons.

QinetiQ Group PLC (LSE:QQ.) delivered first-half results ahead of market forecasts on Thursday, with underlying operating profit reaching £96.0 million—topping expectations even as organic revenue declined 3%.

The company held firm on its full-year outlook, defying investor concerns that a guidance cut might be on the horizon.

For the six months to September 30, 2025, QinetiQ reported revenue of £900.4 million, down from £946.8 million a year earlier. Despite the revenue dip, the underlying operating margin came in at 10.7%, outperforming the 10% margin signaled in its first-quarter trading update.

Underlying earnings per share were unchanged at 14.2p, supported by the company’s accelerated share buyback programme.

Order intake remained strong, reaching £2.4 billion, including a major £1.5 billion Long Term Partnering Agreement (LTPA) extension to enhance the UK’s Test & Evaluation capabilities for future defence needs. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 0.9x, reflecting softer near-term demand in the UK market.

Group Chief Executive Steve Wadey said: “Operational performance in the half has been in line with our expectations. Despite tough market conditions, we delivered against our record order backlog and implemented our restructuring activities, including disposal of the US Federal IT business.”

The company reiterated its guidance for the year, forecasting about 3% organic revenue growth before FX and the US Federal IT disposal, an operating margin of around 11%, and cash conversion near 90%. Earnings per share growth is expected to be in the range of 15–20%.

The board announced an interim dividend of 3.0p per share—an increase of 7% from the prior year’s 2.8p—consistent with its progressive dividend policy.

With 89% of second-half FY26 revenue already covered and a robust £4.8 billion backlog (funded and unfunded), QinetiQ said it remains confident in its long-term growth prospects despite ongoing market challenges.