ADVFN UK Market News

Author: Fiona Craig

  • Rio Tinto Welcomes Long-Term Renewable Power Agreement for Tomago Aluminium

    Rio Tinto Welcomes Long-Term Renewable Power Agreement for Tomago Aluminium

    Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) has backed a new agreement involving Tomago Aluminium, the Australian Government and the New South Wales Government that will provide Australia’s largest aluminium smelter with long-term, internationally competitive electricity through 2038.

    The arrangement provides greater certainty for the Tomago operation, which plays an important role in regional employment and Australia’s manufacturing sector. It also supports Rio Tinto’s integrated aluminium operations in eastern Australia and provides a clearer pathway towards lower-carbon production.

    Tomago to Invest A$1.1 Billion in Smelter

    As part of the agreement, Tomago Aluminium will enter into a 10-year power purchase agreement that will take effect after its existing electricity contract expires in 2028. From 2033, the electricity supplied under the arrangement is expected to come entirely from renewable energy sources.

    Tomago also plans to invest A$1.1 billion in the smelter, including A$100 million specifically allocated to decarbonisation initiatives. The investment is intended to strengthen the facility’s competitiveness while positioning it as an important supplier of lower-carbon aluminium for industries supporting the global energy transition.

    The long-term power arrangement also allows Tomago to continue providing demand-response services to the New South Wales electricity system, helping support grid stability as renewable generation becomes a larger part of the state’s energy mix.

    Australian Aluminium Operations Gain Greater Power Certainty

    The Tomago agreement follows a similar electricity arrangement secured in 2026 for Rio Tinto’s Boyne aluminium smelter in Queensland. As a result, Australia’s two largest aluminium smelters now have clearer routes towards long-term, competitive and increasingly low-carbon electricity supplies.

    Together, the agreements reinforce one of the world’s largest integrated aluminium supply chains and support Rio Tinto’s wider strategy to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions while maintaining significant domestic manufacturing capacity.

    Cash Generation Supports Rio Tinto Outlook

    Rio Tinto’s broader outlook continues to benefit from solid profitability and operating cash generation. Recent company commentary has also highlighted improved cash generation, productivity gains and visible progress across major development projects.

    These strengths are partially offset by weaker conversion of operating cash into free cash flow and higher debt compared with the previous year. Technical indicators are also mixed, with Rio Tinto shares remaining below important intermediate-term moving averages.

    More About Rio Tinto

    Rio Tinto is a global mining and metals group with operations spanning commodities including iron ore, aluminium, copper and other industrial materials. Its Australian aluminium business includes bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting operations across an integrated supply chain.

    The group owns a 51.55% interest in Tomago Aluminium, giving it significant exposure to Australia’s largest aluminium smelter. Its wider presence in eastern Australia makes Rio Tinto an important participant in domestic aluminium production, industrial employment and the country’s transition towards lower-carbon manufacturing.

  • Xeros Introduces Growth LTIP to Link Executive Rewards With Shareholder Returns

    Xeros Introduces Growth LTIP to Link Executive Rewards With Shareholder Returns

    Xeros Technology Group (LSE:XSG) has launched a new Growth Long Term Incentive Plan as part of its 2020 share option scheme, aimed at strengthening the connection between executive remuneration, company growth and shareholder returns.

    The incentive programme was developed following feedback from investors and is intended to help Xeros retain and motivate senior management while ensuring that potential rewards depend on delivering meaningful improvements in the company’s share price.

    Share Price Targets Determine Vesting

    Under the Growth LTIP, options have been awarded to senior executives and directors, including the chief executive officer, finance director and non-executive board members. Vesting will depend on the company’s shares reaching specified price thresholds for at least 10 consecutive trading days during a three-year performance period.

    The awards are structured around three share price milestones of 3.5p, 10p and 17.5p, with the options carrying an exercise price of 1.75p. The staged approach is designed to reward progressively stronger share price performance as Xeros works to expand the commercial reach of its environmental technologies.

    Once vested, the options will become exercisable in three equal tranches. The first tranche can be exercised at the end of the performance period, followed by additional tranches on the first and second anniversaries of that date.

    By connecting management incentives directly to defined share price milestones, the board is seeking to create closer alignment between executive rewards and shareholder value while supporting the company’s longer-term commercialisation strategy.

    Financial Performance Remains a Key Challenge

    Despite the incentive programme’s focus on future growth, Xeros continues to face significant financial headwinds. Revenue has been volatile, margins remain deeply negative and ongoing cash consumption continues to weigh on the company’s financial profile, although leverage is relatively modest.

    Technical indicators also remain challenging, with the shares trading below key moving averages and momentum measures pointing to continued weakness. Valuation provides limited support while Xeros remains loss-making, resulting in a negative price-to-earnings ratio, while the absence of a dividend means there is no yield support for investors.

    More About Xeros Technology

    Xeros Technology Group is a UK-based clean technology business developing solutions intended to reduce the environmental impact associated with clothing production and care. Its patented technologies cover microplastic filtration, laundry applications and garment finishing, targeting markets including industrial laundries, clothing manufacturers and domestic washing machine producers.

    The company operates primarily through a licensing model, generating royalties and consumables-related revenue from partners using its technologies. Xeros currently has eight commercial agreements and estimates its annual addressable markets at approximately £350 million for microplastic filtration, £3 billion for laundry care and £132 million for garment finishing.

  • Antofagasta Posts Stronger First-Half Earnings as Copper Prices Boost Cash Generation

    Antofagasta Posts Stronger First-Half Earnings as Copper Prices Boost Cash Generation

    Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) delivered a strong financial performance in the first half of 2026, benefiting from higher commodity prices, disciplined cost management and favourable working capital movements. Revenue increased 18% to $4.48 billion, while EBITDA climbed 27% to $2.84 billion, taking the EBITDA margin to 63.4%.

    Higher realised prices for copper, gold and molybdenum supported the improvement, alongside tighter control of costs across the business. Operating cash flow rose 53%, while profit before tax advanced 72%. The miner also increased its interim dividend by 81%, with its balance sheet remaining in a solid position and net leverage staying relatively low.

    Copper Guidance Maintained Despite Severe Weather

    Operationally, Antofagasta maintained a fatality-free safety performance during the period. Severe weather affected production at Los Pelambres, but the disruption was contained sufficiently for the group to leave its full-year 2026 copper production guidance unchanged at between 625,000 and 655,000 tonnes.

    The company is also continuing to advance its major expansion programmes. Growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres remain scheduled for commissioning in 2027, providing additional capacity as Antofagasta positions itself to benefit from longer-term growth in global copper consumption.

    At Zaldívar, the group is progressing a $0.9 billion water pipeline investment designed to eliminate the operation’s reliance on continental water. The project could also help support a potential extension of the mine’s operating life to 2051.

    Growth Pipeline Supports Longer-Term Outlook

    Antofagasta’s outlook is underpinned by strong technical momentum and an encouraging earnings picture, including record profitability, substantial cash generation and a fully funded pipeline of growth investments. Rising demand for copper associated with electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and expanding digital networks provides an additional long-term tailwind.

    However, valuation and financial considerations provide some counterbalance. The company’s relatively high price-to-earnings multiple and modest dividend yield offer less valuation support, while increased leverage and uneven recent free cash flow remain factors for investors to monitor.

    More About Antofagasta

    Antofagasta plc is a Chile-focused copper mining group whose principal operations include Los Pelambres, Centinela and Zaldívar. The company is predominantly exposed to copper while also generating meaningful by-product revenue from gold and molybdenum.

    Its asset portfolio and cost position place Antofagasta among the higher-margin participants in the global copper industry, leaving the business closely exposed to structural demand trends including electrification, renewable power development and investment in digital infrastructure.

    Average Trading Vol

  • U.S. stock futures rise as softer annual inflation supports sentiment: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    U.S. stock futures rise as softer annual inflation supports sentiment: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    U.S. stock futures moved higher on Wednesday, pointing to a rebound at the opening bell after the major indices declined in the previous session, as July inflation figures broadly matched economists’ expectations.

    Futures strengthened following the Labor Department’s latest consumer price report, which showed prices rising 0.1% in July after declining 0.4% in June. The monthly increase was in line with forecasts.

    Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.2% during July after showing no change in June. That reading also matched market expectations.

    Headline and core inflation rates ease

    Annual headline inflation slowed slightly to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while the annual core rate moderated to 2.5% from 2.6%.

    Both readings were consistent with economists’ forecasts, potentially easing some concerns about persistent inflation and the implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy.

    Technology shares linked to artificial intelligence could provide additional momentum after investors responded positively to quarterly results and guidance from CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI).

    However, further gains in crude oil could temper risk appetite following deadly attacks involving vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman.

    Major Wall Street indices declined on Tuesday

    U.S. equities finished mostly lower on Tuesday after an uncertain start gave way to selling pressure later in the session, extending the modest declines recorded on Monday.

    The Nasdaq fell 159.91 points, or 0.6%, to 26,445.45. The S&P 500 lost 24.91 points, or 0.3%, to close at 7,728.20, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 184.13 points, or 0.3%, to 53,791.85.

    Although all three benchmarks recovered from their intraday lows, they remained in negative territory at the closing bell.

    Hormuz uncertainty keeps crude prices elevated

    Oil prices contributed to Tuesday’s weaker market sentiment, with U.S. crude futures climbing more than 1% after surging by over 5% during Monday’s session.

    The continued advance reflected uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened.

    According to Reuters, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the strategic waterway would remain closed until Tehran’s conditions were met.

    The approaching release of Wednesday’s CPI figures also encouraged investors to remain cautious during the previous session.

    Hardware and energy stocks buck broader decline

    Computer hardware shares were among Tuesday’s strongest performers despite weakness across the wider equity market. The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index jumped 4.6%, reaching its highest closing level in two months.

    Higher crude prices also lifted oil producers, pushing the NYSE Arca Oil Index up 2%.

    Housing stocks recorded notable gains, while steel and retail shares were among the weaker areas of the market.

  • European stocks muted as Middle East attacks weigh on sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stocks muted as Middle East attacks weigh on sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities traded with little overall direction on Wednesday as fresh attacks on shipping involving the U.S. and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions and reduced hopes of bringing the months-long Iran conflict to an end.

    Major regional indices were mixed. France’s CAC 40 Index slipped 0.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index edged 0.1% higher and Germany’s DAX Index advanced 0.5% following confirmation that German inflation accelerated in July.

    German inflation rises to 2.8%

    Final figures from Destatis showed German consumer prices increased 2.8% year on year in July, accelerating from 2.3% in June and matching previous estimates.

    The rise was partly driven by higher energy prices following the end of the government’s fuel tax measures. The July reading was the highest since April, when inflation reached 2.9%.

    EU-harmonised inflation also increased as expected, reaching a three-month high of 2.8% in July compared with 2.4% in June.

    Balfour Beatty and ABN AMRO shares climb

    In corporate trading, Balfour Beatty (LSE:BBY) shares surged after the British construction group raised its annual operating profit forecast following a sharp increase in first-half earnings.

    Dutch lender ABN AMRO (EU:ABN) also advanced strongly after delivering solid second-quarter results and upgrading its full-year income guidance.

    Germany’s Indus Holding (TG:INH) rallied after reporting a substantial improvement in first-half earnings and raising its outlook for the full 2026 financial year.

    Bechtle and Bilfinger move lower

    Elsewhere, IT services provider Bechtle (TG:BC8) declined despite reporting higher second-quarter bottom-line earnings and increasing its guidance for the full financial year.

    Industrial services group Bilfinger (TG:GBF) also fell after indicating that its full-year EBITA margin is now expected to finish at the lower end of its guidance range.

  • Crude oil rises as Hormuz deadlock and Red Sea attacks fuel supply fears

    Crude oil rises as Hormuz deadlock and Red Sea attacks fuel supply fears

    Crude prices moved higher on Wednesday and neared their strongest levels in two weeks as the deadlock between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz showed little sign of ending.

    Ongoing attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also reinforced fears that disruption to oil flows across West Asia could remain prolonged.

    Brent oil futures advanced 0.6% to $89.45 a barrel at 00:55 ET (04:55 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.7% to $83.77 a barrel.

    Hormuz impasse keeps supply risks elevated

    Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued as negotiations between Washington and Tehran failed to produce meaningful progress. The situation became more tense after the U.S. said it had struck a ship in the Gulf of Oman that it alleged was travelling towards Iran.

    Iran has said the strait will remain shut unless the U.S. agrees to its demands for reparations, which President Donald Trump has strongly opposed.

    Hormuz remains critical to the oil market because roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies moved through the waterway before the war began.

    Concerns over supply were compounded by further Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Iran-backed group had previously announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

    The latest developments suggested that tensions in West Asia remain elevated, leaving oil traders focused on the possibility of additional disruptions and helping keep crude prices supported.

    U.S. emergency oil stocks drop to fresh low

    The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels last week, according to figures from the Department of Energy.

    The reserve declined by 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels.

    The SPR was established to protect the U.S. against major supply emergencies, but inventories have been steadily reduced this year as authorities responded to disruption caused by the Iran conflict.

    President Donald Trump authorised the release of 172 million barrels in March following the outbreak of the conflict.

  • Gold nears $4,400 as traders look to U.S. CPI for Fed direction

    Gold nears $4,400 as traders look to U.S. CPI for Fed direction

    Gold moved higher on Wednesday and remained close to the $4,400-an-ounce mark as investors prepared for U.S. inflation data that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Uncertainty surrounding the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also continued to influence sentiment across commodity markets.

    At 03:22 ET (07:22 GMT), XAU/USD advanced 0.7% to $4,400.02 an ounce. Gold Futures rose 0.4% to $4,459.30, while XAG/USD gained 1.8% to $65.88 an ounce and XPT/USD increased 0.7% to $1,755.16.

    Middle East tensions keep gold supported

    Bullion remained near its highest levels in two months as traders weighed conflicting signals over negotiations aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Pakistan’s defense minister suggested that the U.S. and Iran were approaching an agreement, while separate reports pointed to progress in discussions between Oman and Tehran.

    Iran, however, has continued to insist that Hormuz will remain shut until Washington satisfies its conditions, which include lifting restrictions on Iranian ports and compensating Tehran for damage from U.S. military action.

    The uncertainty has kept oil and other energy markets volatile. Both the U.S. and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen reported attacks involving shipping around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, while a U.S. Navy helicopter fired missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo ship attempting to move through the Gulf of Oman.

    Separately, a refinery in Libya was hit by a drone attack.

    The potential inflationary consequences of elevated energy prices remain particularly important for gold. If higher fuel costs keep inflation under pressure, the Fed could maintain restrictive interest rates for longer, reducing the relative appeal of assets such as bullion that do not generate income.

    CPI and Chinese gold purchases could drive the next move

    Markets are now waiting for Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, with producer price data due a day later. Softer inflation could weaken the case for additional Fed tightening, while an upside surprise could put further rate increases back on the agenda.

    Positioning has remained cautious ahead of the release, with swaps pricing roughly a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate increase in September.

    Chinese demand is also providing support. The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 21st straight month in July, purchasing roughly 640,000 troy ounces and lifting holdings to 76.08 million ounces. Continued buying of Chinese gold-backed ETFs has added to evidence of stronger institutional interest.

    IG senior market analyst Tony Sycamore said the latest decline from $4,435 was linked to profit-taking before the CPI figures, more hawkish Fed rhetoric and renewed strength in energy prices.

    According to Sycamore, gold faces downtrend resistance around $4,460, based on the late-January record high near $5,602. The 200-day moving average around $4,495 represents an additional hurdle.

    A sustained move above both levels would be needed to strengthen the case for a recovery towards $5,000, he said.

  • Market Open: Balfour Beatty Guidance, Evoke Gaming Duties

    Market Open: Balfour Beatty Guidance, Evoke Gaming Duties

    UK markets open mixed as Balfour Beatty raises guidance, Evoke faces higher gaming duties and Brent crude rises on Hormuz risks.

    Market Overview

    The FTSE 100 opened unchanged at 10,844.19, while the Euronext 100 edged 0.01 per cent lower to 1,976.84 and Germany’s DAX gained 0.19 per cent to 26,442.42. European markets remained cautious as investors monitored the escalating US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and awaited US inflation data. Overnight on Wall Street, the Nasdaq closed lower at 26,445.45, while the S&P 500 declined to 7,728.20.

    Commodity markets were mixed, with copper and natural gas higher, gold slightly lower and Brent crude rising as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continuing Houthi strikes kept supply risks in focus. Against sterling, the US dollar, Japanese yen and Australian dollar strengthened marginally, the Swiss franc weakened slightly and the euro was unchanged, while Bitcoin rose slightly.

    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Unchanged (0.00%), 10,844.19
    Euronext 100: Down (-0.01%), 1,976.84
    DAX: Up (+0.19%), 26,442.42
    NASDAQ: Down, 26,445.45
    S&P 500: Down, 7,728.20

    In the Headlines

    Guidance raised – Balfour Beatty (LSE:BBY)
    Infrastructure group Balfour Beatty raised its 2026 guidance after first-half underlying profit from its earnings-based businesses increased 42 per cent, supported by stronger UK and US operations. Higher expectations for profit growth and cash generation, alongside increased shareholder returns, strengthen visibility for the year ahead.

    Gaming duties weigh – Evoke (LSE:EVOK)
    Betting and gaming group Evoke reported broadly stable first-half revenue, with online growth helping offset retail closures, but higher UK gaming duties weighed on profitability. The company is pursuing efficiency measures while progressing towards the proposed Bally’s Intralot transaction.

    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Up (+0.01%), $1.3508
    CHF: Down (-0.00%), Fr.1.0957
    EUR: Unchanged (0.00%), €1.1703
    JPY: Up (+0.00%), ¥215.154
    AUD: Up (+0.00%), $1.9125
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £47,118.43

    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Down
    Brent Crude: Up
    Natural Gas: Up

  • Markets await U.S. inflation data as CoreWeave rallies and Hormuz risks persist: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Markets await U.S. inflation data as CoreWeave rallies and Hormuz risks persist: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures traded mostly higher as investors awaited July inflation data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) rallied after artificial intelligence demand helped the cloud infrastructure provider deliver another quarter of record revenue, while high investment costs remained in focus. In the Middle East, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz declined to a one-week low as hopes of a near-term reopening continued to fade.

    Wall Street futures advance ahead of CPI

    U.S. stock futures were largely in positive territory ahead of the consumer price index release, with markets assessing how the latest inflation reading could affect the Fed’s policy path for the rest of 2026.

    At 03:09 ET (07:09 GMT), Dow futures were little changed. S&P 500 futures rose 13 points, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 117 points, or 0.4%.

    The advance followed a weaker previous session for Wall Street’s main indices, with volatile crude prices contributing to uncertainty. Conflicting developments in the Middle East caused oil to swing sharply, adding to fears that prolonged high energy prices could keep inflation elevated and increase pressure on central banks.

    Some economic indicators offered encouragement, however. Deutsche Bank analysts said recent U.S. releases “generally came in on the positive side,” with small business optimism among the figures exceeding forecasts.

    Inflation figures could shape Fed expectations

    July’s CPI report is now the key focus for investors, with headline inflation forecast to slow marginally to 3.4% year on year from 3.5%.

    Energy costs remain an important component of the inflation outlook. Gasoline prices have been elevated since the Iran war started in late February, raising the prospect that higher energy costs could feed into broader price pressures.

    “Core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%.

    Vital Knowledge analysts said inflation would remain substantially above the Fed’s target even if the forecasts prove accurate. While higher rates could be used to tackle persistent price growth, tighter policy could also put additional pressure on economic activity and an increasingly fragile labour market.

    Deutsche Bank noted that policymakers generally favour the core personal consumption expenditures price index over CPI when assessing inflation. However, the PCE figures are not scheduled for release for another couple of weeks.

    “But today’s CPI and tomorrow’s [producer price index] (where a few components feed into the PCE) will offer us an initial steer on prices in July and will help to shape the upcoming market narrative,” the analysts wrote in a note.

    AI boom drives another record quarter for CoreWeave

    CoreWeave shares climbed more than 15% in extended-hours trading after the company reported record revenue for a fifth consecutive quarter, supported by intense demand for AI computing capacity.

    Its backlog of contracted future sales increased to $104 billion, almost double the level recorded in November. The company also reported $25 billion in net new customer commitments secured so far during the current quarter.

    Chief Executive Michael Intrator called it the “strongest bookings quarter” in CoreWeave’s history.

    CoreWeave’s business involves acquiring advanced Nvidia AI processors, installing them in data centres and renting the resulting computing capacity to customers. June-quarter revenue reached $2.58 billion, surpassing analysts’ forecasts.

    The scale of the investment required to satisfy demand remains a key concern. Vital Knowledge analysts said capital expenditure was “elevated and ran ahead of expectations.” CoreWeave has recorded $1.64 billion in net losses since its initial public offering in March 2025 as it continues spending heavily to expand capacity.

    Hormuz vessel numbers decline further

    Only eight vessels were tracked through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to shipping data reported by Reuters, marking the lowest level for a week.

    Ship operators have increasingly sought to avoid the strategically important passage as violence in the Middle East continues. Fresh attacks announced by the U.S. and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Tuesday further reduced optimism that shipping through the strait could soon return to normal.

    Hormuz carried around one-fifth of the world’s oil before the Iran war erupted in late February. The latest vessel count was below the 10-day average of roughly 12 and was the lowest recorded since August 5, Reuters said.

    Brent crude rebounds as reopening hopes fade

    Brent crude futures gained 0.6% to $89.46 a barrel after another volatile session driven by developments surrounding Hormuz.

    Comments from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry and Pakistan’s Defense Minister initially encouraged hopes of progress towards an agreement to reopen the strait, briefly pushing oil prices lower. Brent fell as far as $86.60 a barrel during the session.

    Those losses were subsequently reversed after Iranian state media indicated that Tehran would keep Hormuz blocked until conditions presented over the weekend were fulfilled. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council separately said that any agreement with Oman concerning the waterway would “remain a separate issue from the strait’s closure.”

  • IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast as Hormuz disruption continues

    IEA cuts 2026 oil supply forecast as Hormuz disruption continues

    The International Energy Agency has lowered its global oil supply forecast for 2026, warning that renewed conflict in the Middle East and continued disruption to crucial shipping routes are expected to push the oil market further into deficit.

    In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said worldwide supply is now forecast to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to around 4% of total output. The revised outlook reflects renewed hostilities in the Middle East since July and persistent uncertainty over major maritime transit routes.

    “With an agreement enabling the reopening of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait still elusive, we have again lowered supply estimates for the rest of the year,” the IEA said.

    The latest estimate marks a further downgrade from the agency’s July report, which projected a decline of 3.7 million barrels per day. Under the revised forecast, total global oil supply is expected to reach 102.02 million barrels per day, the IEA’s lowest projection for 2026 to date.