ADVFN UK Market News

Category: Market News

  • Gold Trades Below $4,300 as Markets Assess Fed Rate Outlook

    Gold Trades Below $4,300 as Markets Assess Fed Rate Outlook

    Gold prices declined on Tuesday as investors assessed higher US Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decision.

    Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,290.39 an ounce at 02:16 ET, following a decline of more than 1% in the previous session. Gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,330.57.

    Elsewhere in precious metals, spot silver declined 0.2% to $63.12 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.2% to $1,769.49. The US Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 99.63.

    Fed Rate Expectations Remain in Focus

    Financial markets were assigning an approximately 92% probability to a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this week.

    The shift in rate expectations has coincided with higher Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield briefly reached 5% on Monday, its highest level in almost three years.

    Higher interest rates increase the yields available on interest-bearing assets, which can affect demand for non-yielding investments such as gold.

    Spot gold reached a five-week low on Monday and has fallen more than 3% since the beginning of September. The metal had traded above $4,600 an ounce in late August.

    Energy Prices Add to Inflation Considerations

    Investors were also assessing the implications of higher oil prices following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline after attacks last week.

    The pipeline had been used to transport Saudi crude while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted.

    Saudi authorities have not provided a timeframe for restarting the pipeline or indicated how quickly alternative shipments could compensate for the affected volumes.

    The increase in energy prices has added to market attention on the inflation outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

    OCBC Forecasts Gold at $4,600 by December

    OCBC raised its forecasts for precious metals, citing higher prevailing prices, increased investor participation and structural demand.

    Chez Anbu, OCBC’s head of wealth advisory, said the rise in gold prices during August reversed the softer performance recorded earlier as macroeconomic conditions changed.

    The bank now forecasts gold at $4,600 an ounce by December 2026. Its forecast for silver stands at $69.70 an ounce.

    Gold was also trading above the approximately $4,000 level reached during an earlier market correction.

  • Brent Rises to $107.83 as Markets Monitor Saudi Supply and Hormuz Shipping

    Brent Rises to $107.83 as Markets Monitor Saudi Supply and Hormuz Shipping

    Oil prices advanced on Tuesday as markets continued to assess potential supply disruptions following further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the postponement of talks concerning shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Brent crude futures rose 2.0% to $107.83 per barrel by 04:19 ET. US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.1% to $103.50 per barrel.

    Oman said a meeting scheduled for Monday between Iran and Gulf states concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had been postponed. No replacement date was announced.

    Saudi East-West Pipeline Remains Offline

    Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen carried out additional attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia on Monday while maintaining operations around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.

    The attacks followed strikes the previous week that took Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline offline.

    Analysts cited in the source estimated that further disruptions in the region could affect supplies equivalent to an additional 4%-5% of the global total.

    “Oil prices remain firmly supported, with that floor unlikely to give way until markets get clearer visibility on Saudi supply after the East–West pipeline shutdown,” ING analysts said in a note.

    Hormuz Oil Traffic Remains Below Pre-Conflict Levels

    Approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict between the US and Iran began in late February.

    Oil flows through the waterway have since remained at a fraction of their earlier levels following restrictions on maritime traffic.

    The delay to the planned meeting in Oman left the timing of negotiations over the reopening of the strait uncertain.

    Washington and Tehran Disagree Over Peace Talks

    US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran was seeking a peace agreement, repeating comments he has made during the conflict.

    Tehran rejected the assertion, saying negotiations would not take place until its conditions were satisfied.

    Iran also said the US would need to adhere to the terms of a June ceasefire agreement that has since expired.

    The statements from Washington and Tehran left the timing of further diplomatic negotiations and any restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz uncertain.

  • Wall Street Futures Edge Lower as Markets Await Fed Rate Decision: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq

    Wall Street Futures Edge Lower as Markets Await Fed Rate Decision: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq

    US equity futures traded lower on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve prepared to begin its two-day policy meeting, with investors also assessing higher Treasury yields, oil prices and developments affecting energy supplies in the Middle East.

    Dow futures declined 266 points, or 0.5%, as of 03:20 ET. S&P 500 futures were down 28 points, or 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 90 points, or 0.3%.

    The moves followed declines across the main Wall Street indices in the previous session. Semiconductor stocks were among those moving lower, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recording its largest one-day decline since July.

    US government bond yields also increased, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5% for the first time since 2023.

    Deutsche Bank analysts said: “It was another session where September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for asset performance, with bonds and equities continuing to struggle.”

    The bank’s analysts said they would also be watching US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee “to see if he tries to lean in some credible way against the rising tide of bond yields.”

    Fed Rate Decision Due Wednesday

    The Federal Reserve was set to begin its latest monetary policy meeting on Tuesday before announcing its interest-rate decision on Wednesday.

    CME FedWatch indicated that financial markets were assigning a roughly 92% probability to a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. If the Fed implements such an increase, its target range would rise to 3.75%-4%.

    Deutsche Bank said approximately 90 basis points of rate increases were being priced in by the June 2027 Fed meeting, two basis points more than in the previous session.

    Investors are assessing the policy outlook against recent economic data showing continued inflationary pressures and resilience in the US labour market.

    Middle East Developments Keep Oil Supply in Focus

    Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as developments in the Middle East continued to affect expectations for regional supply and shipping.

    Talks between Iran and Gulf countries concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remained suspended.

    Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen carried out additional strikes against Saudi Arabia on Monday and continued operations around shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    The latest developments followed attacks that took Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offline. Analysts cited in the source estimated that further disruption could affect supplies equivalent to around 4%-5% of the global total.

    Former DeepMind Researcher Raises AI Concerns

    Former Google DeepMind research engineer Bilal Chughtai raised concerns about the potential consequences of increasingly capable artificial intelligence systems after recently leaving the company.

    Chughtai said he believes that AI systems exceeding human capabilities could potentially emerge within the next several years and pose significant risks.

    “I earnestly believe that AI has the potential to kill us all, and that we might be running out of time to avoid this outcome,” Chughtai said on social media.

    His comments followed other calls for additional safeguards around advanced AI. Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon said concerns about potential AI risks contributed to his decision to leave the company, while Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei has called for greater regulation and a slower pace of development.

    Chinese Industrial Output Beats Expectations

    China reported a 5.2% year-on-year increase in industrial production for August, above expectations for 4.8% growth and compared with 4.5% in the previous month.

    The source linked part of the increase to overseas demand for Chinese products, including batteries, electronic components and networking equipment.

    Fixed-asset investment declined 7.2% in the year through August, compared with expectations for a 7.0% fall. The measure of public and private capital spending has been negative since April.

  • European Gas Prices Ease as Storage Levels and Shipping Disruptions Remain in Focus

    European Gas Prices Ease as Storage Levels and Shipping Disruptions Remain in Focus

    European and British wholesale natural gas prices edged lower on Tuesday after reaching their highest levels since 2023 in the previous session.

    The benchmark Dutch front-month TTF contract fell 0.7% to approximately €82.80 per megawatt-hour, compared with Monday’s peak of €83.40.

    In Britain, the equivalent NBP wholesale gas contract declined 0.7% to 200.10 pence per therm after reaching multi-year highs.

    European Gas Storage at Around 68%

    European underground natural gas storage facilities were approximately 68% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, below the five-year seasonal average.

    The storage position has increased attention on potential disruptions to LNG supplies, particularly those associated with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    JERA Chief Executive Yukio Kani said on Monday that lower European storage levels increase the region’s exposure to prolonged shipping disruptions around the strait and competition for spot LNG cargoes.

    Brent Crude Rises Above $113

    Brent crude increased 1.2% on Tuesday to more than $113 per barrel.

    Saudi Arabia blamed Iran-backed groups for an attack on its East-West pipeline and said the resulting disruption could affect supplies equivalent to as much as 4% of global crude consumption.

    Further Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping routes have also affected maritime traffic in the region.

    A diplomatic meeting in Oman concerning the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was postponed, while Qatari LNG export flows through the Persian Gulf remained restricted.

    Markets Await Federal Reserve Decision

    Energy markets were also monitoring monetary policy developments following the European Central Bank’s decision last Thursday to increase its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%.

    The US Federal Reserve was due to begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. Financial markets were pricing in approximately a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase.

    Higher energy costs remain one of the factors being monitored for their potential impact on inflation and the outlook for monetary policy.

  • European Stocks Fall as Oil Tops $113 Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Stocks Fall as Oil Tops $113 Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities moved lower on Tuesday as investors assessed developments in the Middle East, higher sovereign bond yields and the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX declined 0.2%. France’s CAC 40 and London’s FTSE 100 were both down 0.4%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB fell nearly 1%.

    Investors were also monitoring calls from technology industry executives for a slower approach to the development of advanced artificial intelligence systems.

    Brent Crude Rises Above $113

    Brent crude futures increased 1.2% to more than $113 per barrel, extending gains recorded over recent weeks.

    Saudi Arabia blamed Iran-backed groups in Iraq for an attack on the country’s East-West oil pipeline. Saudi officials said the resulting disruption could affect supplies equivalent to as much as 4% of global oil consumption.

    Separately, Houthi forces in Yemen carried out further attacks on Saudi territory and maritime routes on Monday.

    Regional peace talks in Oman were postponed, while uncertainty continued over the timing of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Markets Price 90% Probability of Fed Rate Increase

    The Federal Reserve was due to begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with an interest-rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.

    Financial markets were pricing in approximately a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate.

    If implemented, the move would represent the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since mid-2023.

    The meeting follows the European Central Bank’s decision last week to increase its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%.

  • FTSE 100 Falls as Oil Prices Rise and UK Unemployment Holds at 4.9%

    FTSE 100 Falls as Oil Prices Rise and UK Unemployment Holds at 4.9%

    The FTSE 100 fell 0.60% on Tuesday as investors assessed higher oil prices, UK labour-market data and developments in the Middle East.

    Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX declined 0.36% and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.64%. Sterling was down 0.21% against the US dollar at $1.3472.

    UK unemployment remained at 4.9% in the three months to July, below the 5% forecast. However, HMRC-based data from the Office for National Statistics showed the number of payrolled employees fell by 101,000 year on year in July, with retail and hospitality recording the largest declines.

    Vacancies decreased to 702,000, their lowest level outside the pandemic period in more than a decade, while annual total pay growth slowed to 3.9% from 4.2%.

    Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “The labour market remains broadly stable… however, payrolled employee numbers continue to edge down.”

    Oil Prices Rise Above $107

    Brent crude rose 1.67% to $107.42 per barrel, while WTI increased 1.7% to $103.09 amid continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and uncertainty over Middle Eastern energy supplies.

    ING’s Warren Patterson said Brent had reached an intraday high of close to $110 on Monday and that prices were “likely to remain well supported” until there was greater clarity over the extent of the pipeline damage, which was reportedly expected to keep it offline for several weeks.

    Separately, Kpler data cited by Reuters showed vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to four on Monday from ten previously. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also claimed that it had downed a US MQ-1 drone near the strait.

    Pakistan and the International Atomic Energy Agency discussed the regional situation, with Pakistan’s foreign ministry saying both sides continued to view the stalled June 17 Iran-US memorandum as the preferred route for reducing tensions.

    ExxonMobil executive Andrew Barry said at the Gastech 2026 conference that he expected disruption to Middle Eastern LNG supplies to be short-term. Shell separately estimated that approximately 36 million tonnes of LNG supply from the region had been lost this year.

    Gold Falls Ahead of Fed Decision

    Gold prices moved lower, with futures declining 0.52% to $4,328.87 and spot gold falling 0.23% to $4,288.93.

    ING said gold could face pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision as investors assess the potential inflationary effects of higher oil prices.

    AI Development Debate Continues

    Investors were also monitoring a debate over the development and oversight of advanced artificial intelligence systems.

    Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei called for additional safeguards, including independent third-party assessments, and warned about potential risks associated with increasingly capable AI models.

    OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman and Elon Musk also expressed support for a more measured approach, while US President Donald Trump opposed slowing AI development, arguing that doing so could affect US competitiveness with China.

    UK Company Updates

    Wickes Group (LSE:WIX) reported a 1.1% increase in first-half adjusted pre-tax profit to £27.6 million, with revenue growth offsetting higher costs. The retailer said it remains on track for approximately 10% growth in adjusted pre-tax profit in 2026.

    Trustpilot (LSE:TRST) reported a 23% increase in first-half revenue to $151.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 46% to $26.3 million. The company maintained its full-year guidance for high-teens revenue growth.

    Kier Group (LSE:KIE) reported a 7.5% increase in full-year revenue to £4.39 billion and a 6.7% rise in adjusted operating profit to £169.8 million. Its order book stood at £11.9 billion entering fiscal 2027.

  • Berenberg Upgrades GSK to Buy and Raises Price Target to £22

    Berenberg Upgrades GSK to Buy and Raises Price Target to £22

    GSK (LSE:GSK) was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” by Berenberg, with the broker raising its price target to £22 from £20 following an assessment of the drugmaker’s pipeline and recent business-development activity.

    GSK shares were up 0.4% at £18.62 in early London trading.

    Berenberg said GSK was trading at 9.6 times estimated 2027 adjusted earnings, compared with 12.4 times for its European pharmaceutical peers, representing a discount of approximately 23%.

    The broker said it believes the size of the discount is no longer warranted, citing changes in the breadth of GSK’s development pipeline and expected returns on research and development.

    Berenberg Highlights GSK Phase 3 Pipeline

    Berenberg said 10 of GSK’s 11 novel Phase 3 assets originated externally through business-development transactions.

    According to the broker’s estimates, six of those late-stage assets could each generate peak annual sales of at least £2 billion.

    Berenberg expects GSK’s pipeline to help offset the effect of patent erosion affecting dolutegravir. It forecasts group sales of approximately £39 billion in 2031, compared with consensus expectations of around £36 billion and GSK’s guidance for sales of more than £40 billion.

    The broker identified recently launched products including Exdensur and Blenrep among potential contributors to future revenue. It also highlighted bepirovirsen, Nuvalent’s lung cancer assets and GSK’s oncology antibody-drug conjugate programmes with Hansoh.

    Cost Savings Target £1.9 Billion Annually by 2029

    Berenberg also pointed to GSK’s cost-reduction programme, which targets annual savings of £1.9 billion by 2029.

    The broker expects the savings to support research and development expenditure and contribute to stable or improving margins as higher-margin oral HIV products begin to face patent erosion from 2028.

    Regulatory and Clinical Updates Expected

    Berenberg identified several upcoming regulatory and clinical events across GSK’s pipeline.

    The broker expects US regulatory decisions on bepirovirsen for hepatitis B by October 26 and neladalkib for second-line ALK-positive lung cancer by November 27.

    Further Phase 3 and proof-of-concept results are expected over the following 12 months from programmes covering small-cell lung cancer, HIV, asthma, food allergy and bronchiectasis.

  • Trustpilot Shares Fall 18% as H1 Results Show $1 Million Net Loss

    Trustpilot Shares Fall 18% as H1 Results Show $1 Million Net Loss

    Trustpilot (LSE:TRST) shares fell more than 18% in early London trading after the company reported a $1 million net loss for the first half of 2026, compared with a $2 million profit a year earlier.

    Revenue increased 23% to $151.4 million, or 19% at constant currency, while bookings rose 22% to $171.2 million.

    Adjusted EBITDA increased 46% to $26.3 million from $18.0 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin rising 2.8 percentage points to 17.4%.

    On a statutory basis, operating profit declined 18% to $4.4 million. The results included $6 million of non-recurring items, comprising an AGCM antitrust fine and a provision relating to historical US sales taxes.

    Annual Recurring Revenue Reaches $313 Million

    Trustpilot reported annual recurring revenue of $313 million, an increase of 15%, while net dollar retention declined to 101% from 103%.

    Enterprise new customer additions increased 41% year on year, with Expedia, Halfords and Bending Spoons among the customers added during the period.

    North American bookings increased 27%, while revenue in the region rose 23%. Bookings in Europe and the Rest of World also increased 27%, with UK bookings up 15%.

    Adjusted free cash flow increased 5% to $16 million.

    Chief Executive Adrian Blair said the company delivered a strong first half, with bookings increasing 18% at constant currency. He also identified artificial intelligence as a potential source of demand, saying Trustpilot’s data is increasingly being used in how AI systems evaluate and recommend companies.

    Trustpilot Reaffirms Full-Year Guidance

    Trustpilot maintained its full-year guidance following the first-half results.

    The company continues to expect high-teens percentage revenue growth at constant currency and an expansion in its adjusted EBITDA margin of between two and three percentage points.

    Marcus Roy Takes Over as Chief Financial Officer

    Trustpilot also confirmed that Marcus Roy became Chief Financial Officer and joined the board on September 14, as previously announced in March.

    Hanno Damm stepped down from the board on the same date. He is expected to remain with the company until October 2026 to assist with the transition.

  • Berenberg Upgrades Antofagasta to Buy With 4,400 Pence Price Target

    Berenberg Upgrades Antofagasta to Buy With 4,400 Pence Price Target

    Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” by Berenberg, with the broker maintaining a price target of 4,400 pence following a decline in copper prices and copper-related equities.

    Copper had recently traded towards $15,000 per tonne before falling to around $14,200 per tonne. Berenberg attributed the earlier increase to factors including supply disruptions, tight physical markets, investor positioning and speculation over possible additional US tariffs on copper imports.

    The broker said speculation surrounding potential tariffs has contributed to record levels of US copper inventories. Berenberg does not expect the additional tariffs to be introduced, citing their potential inflationary impact on the US economy.

    Following the subsequent decline in copper prices and mining shares, the broker said current valuations presented an opportunity to increase exposure to Antofagasta.

    Berenberg Forecasts Antofagasta Copper Production Growth

    Berenberg expects Antofagasta’s copper production to increase 27% to 818,000 tonnes in 2028 from an estimated 646,000 tonnes in 2026.

    At the Los Pelambres mine in Chile, the broker forecasts production of 373,000 tonnes in 2028, compared with 322,000 tonnes in 2026. Berenberg noted that its 2026 production estimate is also affected by weather-related events.

    The broker also expects the Centinela second concentrator project in Chile to contribute to higher production. It forecasts Centinela volumes of 329,000 tonnes in 2028 and 360,000 tonnes in 2029, compared with 207,000 tonnes in 2026.

    According to Berenberg, higher copper output would also increase production of by-products including molybdenum and gold, which it expects to contribute to lower unit costs.

    Free Cash Flow Forecast at $3.1 Billion in 2027

    Berenberg expects Antofagasta’s capital expenditure to begin declining in 2027 following investment in its growth projects.

    The broker forecasts free cash flow of $3.1 billion in 2027, equivalent to a 6.2% yield, compared with approximately $700 million and a 1.4% yield in 2026. It also forecasts EBITDA margins of approximately 66% to 68%.

    Berenberg said it made limited changes to its financial model as part of the upgrade.

    The broker expects production growth during 2027 and 2028 to support a higher valuation for Antofagasta shares. According to its estimates, the shares trade at 2.37 times net asset value and 7.8 times estimated 2027 EBITDA.

  • hVIVO H1 Revenue Falls to £16.3 Million as Contracted Order Book Reaches £72 Million

    hVIVO H1 Revenue Falls to £16.3 Million as Contracted Order Book Reaches £72 Million

    hVIVO (LSE:HVO) reported revenue of £16.3 million for the first half of 2026, down from £24.2 million a year earlier, while recording an adjusted EBITDA loss of £4.5 million.

    The clinical development services group attributed the first-half performance to the planned weighting of activity towards the second half and the timing of contract revenue.

    Cash stood at £13.0 million at the end of the period. hVIVO said proposal volumes increased by approximately 45%, while around three-quarters of revenue was generated from repeat customers.

    The company has also consolidated its operations under a single brand covering four service areas.

    Contracted Order Book More Than Doubles

    hVIVO’s weighted contracted order book more than doubled to £65 million as of 30 June 2026.

    Including the subsequently acquired CRS Berlin business, the order book reached £72 million, which the company described as a record level. The contracts provide revenue coverage extending into 2027 and 2028.

    Management expects second-half revenue to be approximately twice the level recorded in the first half and is forecasting full-year revenue of around £47 million.

    The company also expects to return to positive adjusted EBITDA during the second half, while forecasting a small adjusted EBITDA loss for the full year.

    hVIVO Acquires CRS Berlin

    hVIVO acquired CRS Berlin under a transaction structure that is largely based on a revenue-linked earn-out.

    The acquisition adds Phase I and Phase II clinical trial capabilities in areas including dermatology and women’s health. hVIVO expects the transaction to be immediately earnings accretive.

    The company said the acquisition is intended to expand its clinical development services beyond its existing human challenge trial operations and increase the range of services available to customers.

    hVIVO Targets Growth in 2027

    Management expects the increased contracted order book, CRS Berlin acquisition and demand for human challenge trials to support growth in 2027.

    The company is also seeking to increase cross-selling across its Consulting, Clinical Trials, Human Challenge Trials and Laboratories service lines.

    hVIVO operates clinical development facilities in the UK and Germany. Its services cover preclinical consulting, early-stage clinical studies, human challenge trials and specialist virology and immunology laboratory work.