Category: Market Summary

Oil prices and shares of major energy companies moved lower on Wednesday after Donald Trump suggested the conflict in Iran could conclude within “two to three weeks.”

Brent crude briefly dropped to $98.35 per barrel before trimming losses to trade slightly above $102, as investors weighed the possibility that the war — which has disrupted global energy flows in recent months — may soon wind down.

Oil majors fell alongside crude prices. ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron were each down about 2% in premarket trading at 04:54 ET (08:58 GMT), while ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) declined 1.9%. European energy groups also weakened, with BP (LSE:BP.) and TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) each slipping roughly 2%, and Italy’s Eni (BIT:ENI) falling 2.7%.

Speaking on Tuesday, Trump said: “Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.”

The remarks were the strongest indication so far that Trump intends to bring the month-long conflict to a close. The war has reshaped geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, unsettled global energy markets and become a defining moment of his presidency.

The U.S. president also said that a formal agreement with Tehran would not be necessary for the fighting to end.

Broader financial markets reacted positively to the prospect of de-escalation. Asian equities led the gains, with South Korea’s Kospi surging more than 8% and Japan’s Nikkei climbing 5.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2%, while China’s CSI 300 advanced 1.7%. European stocks followed suit, with the FTSE 100 up 1.7% and the Stoxx 600 rising 2.2% in early trading.

Gold prices also continued to move higher, gaining 1.3% to trade above $4,700 per ounce, their highest level in nearly two weeks, after jumping 3.5% in the previous session.

Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

U.S. equity futures traded higher early Wednesday as investors responded to signs that Washington may be preparing to step away from the ongoing conflict with Iran. Oil prices also dropped below $100 per barrel, though they remain significantly above pre-war levels. In corporate news, Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares fell in after-hours trading following its earnings release, as continued weakness in China weighed on results.

Futures move higher

U.S. stock futures pointed to gains ahead of the open, with markets encouraged by indications that the United States could soon wind down its military campaign in Iran, now entering its second month.

As of 03:25 ET, Dow futures had climbed 270 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures were up 43 points, or 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had advanced 227 points, or 1.0%.

Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations that the U.S. may soon pull back from its joint operations with Israel against Iran, a conflict that has expanded and raised concerns about broader instability across the Middle East.

Those expectations gained traction after a Wall Street Journal report said U.S. President Donald Trump told advisers he would consider ending the war even if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely restricted. Analysts at Vital Knowledge said Trump’s later comments to reporters and posts on social media appeared to reinforce the report.

Trump also repeated that negotiations with Iran are progressing, although officials in Tehran have frequently disputed that claim. Still, Iran acknowledged that communications are ongoing between the two sides, while the country’s president said Iran has the “necessary will” to end the war if it receives assurances that further attacks will not occur.

“Risk sentiment has been stabilizing as equities recover and bond spreads ease. Amid the mixed messaging, there were already signs that U.S. President Trump was looking for a way out; markets pounced on headlines that the Iranian president was willing to end the conflict, albeit sticking to Iran’s demands,” ING analysts wrote in a note.

Oil slips following Trump remarks

Oil prices fell below the $100 threshold on Wednesday, reflecting a degree of easing anxiety in energy markets.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, dropped 4.2% to $99.60 per barrel for the June contract. After the war broke out in late February, Brent had surged to nearly $120 per barrel, compared with roughly $70 prior to the conflict.

The earlier surge was largely driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic shipping lane along Iran’s southern coast that normally handles about 20% of global oil shipments. Persistent threats from Iranian drone and missile strikes significantly reduced tanker traffic, heightening fears of supply disruptions.

The spike in energy costs also fueled concerns that inflation could accelerate, potentially forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated. Government bond yields rose on those expectations, adding pressure on equity markets.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, Trump said the United States would be “leaving very soon,” adding that the administration’s goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat had been “attained” and that a formal agreement was not required to end the conflict.

However, Trump has yet to outline what steps Washington plans to take regarding the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday he said U.S. allies should “take” responsibility for the waterway.

Gold extends gains

Gold prices advanced again in European trading, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains.

Spot gold rose back above $4,700 per ounce. The precious metal gained 3.5% on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, though it still dropped more than 11% during March, its worst monthly performance since October 2008.

Expectations for persistently high interest rates had weighed on gold, which does not generate yield, for much of the previous month. Those concerns eased somewhat after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week that long-term U.S. inflation expectations remain stable and policy is “in a good place to wait and see.”

ING analysts said gold remains exposed to risks from tighter liquidity conditions and a stronger dollar, but added that “so far pullbacks have been met with buying rather than a loss of confidence.”

Investors are also awaiting upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, for further signals about monetary policy and currency trends.

Nike earnings disappoint investors

Separately, Nike (NYSE:NKE) reported quarterly earnings that topped expectations on both revenue and profit, but its results highlighted continued challenges in the Greater China market and declining gross margins.

The athleticwear company’s shares slipped in extended trading.

Nike’s results come as investors look for evidence that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan is gaining traction. The company has been grappling with slowing revenue in China, margin pressure linked to tariffs and intensifying competition from brands such as Anta and Li Ning in China, Switzerland’s On, and Deckers’ Hoka.

Nike reported earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $11.28 billion for its fiscal third quarter. Analysts had forecast $0.30 per share on revenue of $11.23 billion.

Revenue from Greater China, which accounts for roughly 15% of Nike’s total global sales, fell 7% year over year to $1.62 billion, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly decline.

Microsoft in talks over data center power project

In other corporate developments, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is reportedly in exclusive negotiations with Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) and Engine No. 1 regarding the development of a large energy complex in West Texas to supply electricity to a data center campus, according to Bloomberg News.

The proposed natural gas-powered facility could cost about $7 billion and initially produce 2,500 megawatts of power, people familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg.

The talks come as Microsoft and other AI-focused technology giants rapidly expand computing infrastructure to meet growing demand for artificial intelligence applications, making reliable power supply a critical part of their strategy.

Microsoft is expected to spend as much as $146 billion on AI-related capital expenditures during its fiscal year 2026.

European equity markets moved higher on Tuesday despite the continued surge in global oil prices, supported in part by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may be prepared to end the war in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 gained 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX added 0.3%. The FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom climbed 0.5%, and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.6%.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Trump is open to bringing the military campaign in Iran—now running for more than a month—to a close even if Tehran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supply. The waterway’s effective closure in recent weeks has pushed oil prices sharply higher and increased fears of a potential global economic slowdown.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading above $115 per barrel, compared with around $70 per barrel before the conflict began.

The report said Trump and his advisers believe that a full operation to reopen the strait would extend the conflict well beyond the administration’s preferred four-to-six-week timeline. Instead, the strategy has focused on damaging Iran’s naval capabilities and missile stockpiles before gradually reducing military engagement while applying diplomatic pressure on Tehran. If those efforts fail, Washington may encourage European and Gulf allies to take responsibility for restoring access to the strait, according to administration officials cited by the newspaper.

At the same time, the economic consequences of the expanding Middle East conflict—initially sparked by a joint U.S.–Israeli offensive against Iran and now involving multiple regional actors—were reflected in the latest eurozone inflation figures released Tuesday.

Data showed that consumer prices across the 21 countries using the euro rose 2.5% year-on-year in March, up from 1.9% in February, when the broader escalation of the conflict had not yet fully taken hold. Economists had expected inflation to come in slightly higher at 2.6%.

Even so, the figure remains above the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation target. In recent days, ECB officials have indicated that interest rate increases could be considered if price pressures continue to rise as a result of the geopolitical shock triggered by the late-February U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran.

Energy prices have been one of the most visible economic effects of the conflict, with Eurozone energy costs jumping 4.9% this month amid soaring oil and natural gas prices.

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a strong opening on Tuesday, indicating that equities could rebound early in the session after reversing course during the previous day’s trading.

Initial buying interest may stem from reports suggesting President Donald Trump is considering bringing the Middle East conflict to a close.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told advisers he would be willing to halt the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.

According to administration officials cited by the WSJ, Trump and his team believe that a military effort to reopen the strait could extend the conflict beyond the president’s preferred four-to-six-week timeframe.

The officials told the newspaper that the U.S. would instead attempt to pressure Tehran through diplomatic channels to restore shipping through the waterway. If that approach fails, Washington could encourage regional allies to take the lead.

Trump appeared to echo the report in a Truth Social post Tuesday morning urging allies to “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”

“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump said. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

During Monday’s session, stocks initially surged but gradually lost momentum as trading progressed. Major indices pulled back from their intraday highs, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closing in negative territory.

The Nasdaq dropped 153.72 points, or 0.7%, to end at 20,794.64, while the S&P 500 declined 25.13 points, or 0.4%, finishing at 6,343.72. Both indices recorded their lowest closing levels in nearly eight months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, edging up 49.50 points, or 0.1%, to 45,216.14 after briefly dipping into negative territory late in the session.

Part of the early strength on Monday was driven by bargain hunting, as investors sought to buy stocks following recent declines.

Optimistic remarks from President Trump regarding the Middle East situation also helped spark early buying.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said the United States had made “great progress” in talks with a “new, and more reasonable, regime” aimed at ending military operations in Iran.

He also warned that if negotiations fail, the U.S. would “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”

However, investor sentiment weakened later in the session as oil prices continued climbing amid ongoing concerns about the conflict’s impact on global energy supply.

U.S. crude oil futures jumped more than 3% on the day, closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022.

Semiconductor stocks led the declines, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 4.2% to its lowest closing level in nearly three months.

Computer hardware and networking stocks also suffered notable losses, weighing heavily on the tech-focused Nasdaq.

Despite the rally in oil prices, oil services companies also declined, with the Philadelphia Oil Service Index falling 3.3%.

Airline stocks were another area of weakness, while biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies posted solid gains.

U.S. equity futures moved higher on Tuesday as investors approached the final trading session of the first quarter, helped by reports suggesting that President Donald Trump may be considering ending the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Energy markets, however, remained tense after a Kuwaiti oil tanker caught fire near Dubai following what its owner described as an Iranian strike. Traders are also looking ahead to fresh U.S. labor market data and new inflation figures from the Eurozone.

U.S. futures point higher

U.S. stock futures were trading in positive territory early Tuesday as the conflict involving Iran continued to shape global market sentiment.

At 03:29 ET, Dow futures were up 333 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures had added 42 points, or 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 137 points, or 0.6%.

Monday’s trading session on Wall Street ended unevenly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both finished lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a small gain.

Earlier optimism had lifted equities after President Trump wrote on social media that negotiations with Iran were making “great progress.” At the same time, he reiterated that the United States could strike Iranian power plants and other key infrastructure if talks fail to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“While Trump and the White House are trying to put a very positive spin on the state of negotiations, investors are paying much more attention to actual developments in the war,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

Fighting in the Middle East has intensified in recent days, with continued air strikes and the involvement of Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen. The widening conflict has heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global oil shipping routes. Tehran has also rejected Washington’s claims about progress in talks and largely dismissed a 15-point U.S. peace proposal.

Trump reportedly considering ending Iran campaign without reopening Hormuz

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Trump has told advisers he could wrap up the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.

Officials cited by the newspaper said attempts to fully reopen the waterway would likely extend the conflict beyond the four-to-six-week timeframe initially envisioned by the administration. Instead, Washington may aim to scale down hostilities after achieving major objectives such as weakening Iran’s naval forces and limiting its missile arsenal.

The U.S. would then attempt to persuade Iran diplomatically to restore access to the strait. If that approach fails, Washington may encourage European and Gulf allies to take the lead in reopening the key shipping route.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the U.S.-Israel confrontation with Iran. Tehran has effectively obstructed the channel using naval mines and missile strikes. The passage is critical to global energy markets, carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil consumption.

Oil holds above $110

Disruptions to traffic through the strait have triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices over the past several weeks.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, has surged above $110 per barrel, compared with around $70 before the conflict began. On Tuesday, May Brent futures were up 0.5% at $113.39 per barrel.

Adding further pressure to prices, a Kuwaiti tanker caught fire near Dubai after what the vessel’s owner said was an Iranian attack. Since the conflict began in late February, Iran has targeted energy facilities across the Persian Gulf, raising fears of supply disruptions affecting countries in both Asia and Europe.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament has reportedly approved an early proposal to impose a toll on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

“A toll or selective access through Hormuz would keep a persistent risk premium in oil, as flows could be curtailed at short notice, while higher insurance and freight costs lift delivery prices even without a full shutdown,” analysts at ING said in a note.

JOLTS report in focus

On the economic calendar, markets will be watching the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the United States, widely viewed as a gauge of labor demand.

Economists expect the report to show 6.89 million job openings in February, slightly lower than 6.946 million in January.

Although the data largely covers a period before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, it remains an important measure of labor market strength before the geopolitical shock. The report will also serve as a lead-in to Friday’s more comprehensive March nonfarm payrolls report.

Officials at the Federal Reserve will closely monitor the employment data, particularly as inflation pressures begin to build. Employment and inflation remain the two key pillars guiding the Fed’s policy decisions.

Eurozone inflation data ahead

Investors are also awaiting Eurozone inflation figures for March, which could provide further insight into the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict.

Europe relies heavily on natural gas imports from Gulf countries, especially Qatar, where production facilities have reportedly been targeted by Iranian air strikes.

Officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) have indicated that rate hikes could be considered if higher energy costs revive inflation across the currency bloc. ECB President Christine Lagarde has said policymakers may still need to act even if price pressures prove temporary.

Economists expect headline inflation to reach 2.6% in March, up from 1.9% in February. The ECB’s medium-term inflation target remains 2.0%.

Expectations of a possible ECB rate increase have pushed European government bond yields higher in recent sessions, although they were largely stable ahead of Tuesday’s inflation release. Bond yields typically move in the opposite direction to bond prices.

U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a stronger start on Monday, indicating that equities may attempt to recover some of the losses recorded during last week’s sharp decline.

Part of the early strength could come from bargain hunters stepping in after the recent selloff, as some investors look to accumulate shares that have fallen to lower price levels.

The downturn last week pushed the major U.S. indices to their weakest closing levels in more than eight months.

Market sentiment may also get a boost from optimistic remarks by President Donald Trump regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

In a Truth Social post earlier today, Trump said the United States had made “great progress” in discussions with a “new, and more reasonable, regime” aimed at ending military operations in Iran.

At the same time, Trump warned that if an agreement is not reached soon, the United States will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”.

Even so, gains could remain limited as crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.

Stocks posted sharp losses during Friday’s session, extending declines from the previous trading day. The major indices fell early in the session and continued sliding deeper into negative territory as trading progressed.

Although the market recovered somewhat from the day’s lows toward the close, the main averages still ended the session with sizeable losses. The Nasdaq fell 459.72 points, or 2.2%, to 20,948.36, the Dow dropped 793.47 points, or 1.7%, to 45,166.64, and the S&P 500 declined 108.31 points, or 1.7%, finishing at 6,368.85.

For the week overall, the Nasdaq lost 3.2%, the S&P 500 declined 2.1%, and the Dow slipped 0.9%. These declines pushed the major averages to their lowest closing levels in more than eight months.

The continued rally in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. Brent crude futures climbed back above $110 per barrel after rising by more than 5% during Thursday’s trading session.

The extended rise in oil prices came despite President Trump extending by 10 days the pause on potential attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure, moving the deadline to April 6.

Trump said in another Truth Social post that negotiations with Iran were “going very well,” although Iranian state media reported that Tehran had “responded negatively” to a U.S. peace proposal.

“Comments from Washington and Tehran about a potential peace process seem to come from parallel worlds, with the former indicating talks are going well while the latter effectively denies talks are even happening,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“For now, fighting continues and the path out of the current crisis remains unclear,” he added. “Oil prices, probably the best indicator, remain elevated and have reached $110 per barrel again.”

Mould also warned that if crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, fears of renewed inflationary pressure could intensify.

Airline stocks were among the worst performers on Friday, sending the NYSE Arca Airline Index down 4.7%.

Biotechnology, software, and computer hardware companies also experienced notable declines, contributing to the heavy losses in the technology-focused Nasdaq.

Financial, retail, and healthcare stocks also moved significantly lower, while gold-related shares resisted the broader downturn as the price of the precious metal surged.