U.S. equity futures traded higher early Friday as investors prepared for pivotal readings on inflation and economic growth. At the same time, anxiety intensified around the private credit space following an announcement from Blue Owl Capital (NYSE:OWL), while crude prices steadied amid ongoing geopolitical strains between Washington and Tehran.
Futures Move Higher
As of 03:09 ET, Dow Jones futures were up 54 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 57 points, also 0.2%.
Wall Street’s major benchmarks had closed lower in the previous session, pressured by concerns over Middle East tensions and a series of earnings releases that analysts at Vital Knowledge labeled as “underwhelming.” Retail heavyweight Walmart (NYSE:WMT) warned that inflation in general merchandise had accelerated sharply due to sweeping U.S. tariffs and issued cautious guidance for the current year, pushing its stock lower.
Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) also declined, weighing on the broader S&P 500.
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran appeared to soften his previously dovish stance on interest rates. His remarks followed the release of minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which indicated that several policymakers had cautioned about the possibility of rate hikes in the months ahead. According to Vital Knowledge, this reinforces the view that borrowing costs may be “heading further away” from President Donald Trump’s preference for swift and aggressive rate cuts. The analysts added that such divergence increases the likelihood of friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
Private Credit Under Pressure
Market attention on Thursday centered on the private credit industry after Blue Owl Capital announced changes to its redemption framework. Investors will no longer be able to withdraw a fixed amount of capital each quarter.
Instead, the firm will determine on a quarterly basis how much capital it returns to investors.
Blue Owl’s shares fell in response, as did those of peers including Ares (NASDAQ:ARCC) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX). The reaction highlighted rising unease about potential weaknesses in the largely opaque private credit market, which has extended trillions of dollars in loans to companies over recent years.
Concerns are also mounting over lenders’ exposure to software companies, a segment that has faced pressure as investors assess potential disruptions stemming from the rapid development of new artificial intelligence models.
In a post on social media, former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian questioned whether Blue Owl’s revised redemption terms represent a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, drawing parallels with early warning signs seen before the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago.
“There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in advanced (not developing) markets that has gone too far overall (short answer: yes), to the approaches being taken by specific firms (lots of differences, yet subject to the “market for lemons” risk),” El-Erian wrote.
Oil Holds Firm
Oil prices stabilized and remained on course for their first weekly gain in three weeks, as escalating U.S.–Iran tensions heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were trading broadly unchanged at $71.66 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.1% to $66.35 per barrel.
Both benchmarks hovered near their highest levels since early August and were set to post weekly gains of more than 6%.
Geopolitical risks intensified after Trump warned on Thursday that “really bad things” would happen if Iran failed to reach a nuclear agreement within 10 to 15 days, raising the possibility of military action.
Any escalation involving Iran — a major OPEC producer — could disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.
PCE Data Ahead
Investors are closely watching Friday’s economic releases, with particular focus on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
The core PCE gauge, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in December, compared with 0.2% in November. On a year-over-year basis, it is forecast at 3.0%, up from 2.8%, according to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Data released last week showed that headline consumer price inflation rose more slowly than anticipated in January, strengthening expectations that the Fed could bring forward the timing of its next rate cut to as early as June. However, a stronger-than-expected labor market report earlier this week had tempered those bets, suggesting the central bank — which reduced rates multiple times in 2025 — may hold off on further easing until the second half of the year.
U.S. GDP Estimate Due
Meanwhile, an advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth is expected to show a moderation in momentum during the October–December period.
Economists forecast that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the final three months of 2025, slowing from 4.4% in the third quarter.
In the prior quarter, consumer spending — long the backbone of U.S. economic activity — continued to play a central role in driving growth. A narrowing trade deficit, partly linked to President Trump’s broad tariff measures, also contributed to the expansion.
Although the headline figures appear solid, many Wall Street observers argue that the economy has developed a “K” shape. Higher-income households and large corporations have shouldered much of the growth, while lower-income Americans continue to grapple with elevated prices and a subdued hiring environment. Smaller businesses, meanwhile, face rising import costs and tighter labor supply conditions due to ongoing immigration restrictions.
