Category: Top Story

  • Capita Secures £424.6 Million TfL Contract Renewal for London Road Charging Services

    Capita Secures £424.6 Million TfL Contract Renewal for London Road Charging Services

    Capita plc (LSE:CPI) has been awarded a five-year extension to its Road User Charging agreements with Transport for London (TfL), strengthening its long-standing role in managing key elements of the capital’s road charging network. The renewed contracts, which have a combined value of approximately £424.6 million, cover both Business Operations and Enforcement Operations for the Congestion Charge, Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), Low Emission Zone (LEZ) and Tunnels User Charging schemes. The new term runs from October 2026 until September 2031, with the possibility of a further two-year extension. The award supports Capita’s recurring revenue base while reinforcing its position as a strategic delivery partner for TfL.

    Long-Term Partnership with Transport for London

    Capita has supported TfL’s road charging programmes since 2016, providing integrated technology platforms, operational management, customer service functions and specialist supply chain expertise. The latest contract extension reflects TfL’s continued confidence in the company’s ability to operate and develop these critical transport services.

    The renewed agreements also provide greater visibility for Capita’s public sector transport operations, enhancing its presence in urban mobility and traffic management while ensuring continuity across London’s road charging infrastructure.

    Financial Challenges Continue to Weigh on Outlook

    Despite securing a significant long-term contract, Capita continues to face broader financial headwinds. The company has experienced declining revenue, returned to loss-making performance and generated uneven cash flow, while leverage remains elevated due to a relatively limited equity base.

    Market sentiment also remains cautious, with technical indicators pointing to a sustained downward trend and weak price momentum. Valuation metrics offer limited support, as the company remains loss-making and does not currently provide a dividend yield.

    About Capita plc

    Capita plc is a technology-enabled business services provider serving both public and private sector organisations. The company combines artificial intelligence, data, digital technology and operational expertise to help government bodies, regulated industries and commercial customers improve service delivery, increase efficiency and manage complex operational processes.

  • Goldman Sachs Says Midterm Elections Could Bring More Volatility to the S&P 500

    Goldman Sachs Says Midterm Elections Could Bring More Volatility to the S&P 500

    Goldman Sachs expects investor attention to increasingly shift toward the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, warning that political uncertainty could lead to higher volatility in the S&P 500 during the months ahead.

    The bank said historical election cycles suggest that uncertainty surrounding economic policy tends to increase as the vote approaches, creating a less stable environment for equity markets.

    Macro Risks Expected to Become More Influential

    “In past cycles, economic policy uncertainty has usually risen in the August ahead of midterm elections and remained elevated in the subsequent few months,” strategists led by Ben Snider said in a note.

    Goldman argued that this pattern supports maintaining exposure to equity index volatility.

    While low correlations between individual stocks have helped suppress overall index volatility, the bank believes that effect will weaken as investors place greater emphasis on macroeconomic developments.

    It expects “increased focus on macro issues including elections, geopolitics, and interest rate volatility” to become a more important driver of market performance once earnings season concludes.

    History Points to Weak Pre-Election Returns

    According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 has typically struggled to generate meaningful gains in the period leading up to U.S. midterm elections.

    Looking at the 13 election cycles since 1974, the index recorded a median return of 0% from early August through Election Day.

    Performance has generally strengthened after the vote, with returns having “typically improved post-election,” producing a median gain of 6% over the following three months.

    Investor Positioning Often Improves After the Vote

    The bank added that mutual funds and overseas investors have historically reduced their exposure to U.S. equities before midterm elections before increasing allocations once political uncertainty subsides.

    Goldman Sachs believes election-related developments, alongside geopolitical events and interest rate movements, are likely to play a larger role in determining equity market volatility over the remainder of the year.

  • HSBC Remains Bullish on Equities After Sentiment Sell Signal Disappears

    HSBC Remains Bullish on Equities After Sentiment Sell Signal Disappears

    HSBC believes recent weakness across risk assets has largely run its course and says improving market sentiment continues to support additional gains for global equities.

    Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner said that despite a series of disruptive events over the past two months, equity markets have demonstrated impressive resilience.

    Multiple Shocks Failed to Derail Global Markets

    The bank highlighted a number of significant developments, including a $30 increase in oil prices after tensions escalated in the Middle East, a 40% decline in Asian memory stocks, sharp losses among momentum shares and a 50% retreat in SpaceX’s share price from its intraday high.

    “And, yet, nothing has happened,” Kettner wrote, noting that global equity markets remain only about 1% below the record levels reached in early June.

    Strong Earnings Offset Economic Concerns

    HSBC argued that investors have become considerably more cautious on economic growth while continuing to underestimate corporate earnings.

    The bank noted that 12-month forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have increased by another 5.5% over the past year, supported by a broad-based second-quarter earnings season.

    It also pointed to more reasonable equity valuations, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio now roughly two turns below the 21.5 multiple seen before the Middle East conflict intensified.

    Positive Positioning Remains Intact

    HSBC believes higher bond yields have reduced the impact of rising oil prices on equities and suggested that a further reversal of “U.S. exceptionalism” could make lower yields supportive for stock markets.

    The bank also said the recent decline in hyperscaler debt “masks lower issuance and strength elsewhere.”

    HSBC continues to recommend a “max OW equities” allocation, while favoring high-yield debt and emerging-market credit over U.S. Treasuries, Japanese government bonds and oil.

    The bank said the disappearance of its sentiment-based sell signal reinforces its expectation that global equities can continue moving higher.

  • Citi: Global Investor Sentiment Holds Firm, but Regional Divergence Is Increasing

    Citi: Global Investor Sentiment Holds Firm, but Regional Divergence Is Increasing

    Global markets continue to show resilient investor positioning, although leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated across selected regions and sectors, according to Citi.

    The bank said recent trading patterns suggest investors remain optimistic overall, but differences between major equity markets indicate that underlying market conditions are becoming more fragile.

    U.S. Investors Favor Large Caps While Tech Weakens

    Citi noted that investors continued adding exposure to the S&P 500 over the past week despite softer performance across the broader U.S. market.

    The increase reflected a combination of new bullish positions and investors closing existing short trades.

    By contrast, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 experienced heavier short selling, highlighting weaker sentiment toward technology and small-cap stocks.

    “Positioning remains mildly bullish across large caps; however, Nasdaq longs remain largely in loss, leaving downside risks elevated,” the strategists said.

    Europe Continues to Attract Investor Interest

    Europe recorded one of the strongest improvements in positioning, according to Citi.

    The bank highlighted growing long exposure and the possibility of additional short squeezes, particularly in the FTSE, where “virtually all shorts in loss” could encourage further buying if market gains persist.

    The Euro Stoxx 50 also recovered from recent weakness, while European banks maintained stable bullish positioning.

    The DAX remained the weakest major European benchmark, with positioning continuing to deteriorate.

    Rotation Toward China Faces Technology Risks

    In Asia, China’s A50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benefited from continued short covering, whereas Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI experienced weaker positioning.

    “The key risk over the coming weeks is whether further pressure in AI/Tech accelerates deleveraging, or whether momentum continues in Europe and China extending the rotation,” the strategists said.

    Citi believes the next phase of market leadership will largely depend on whether technology stocks stabilize or investors continue shifting capital toward Europe and China.

  • HSBC Identifies Hyperscaler Spending Concerns as the Leading AI Investment Theme

    HSBC Identifies Hyperscaler Spending Concerns as the Leading AI Investment Theme

    HSBC believes investor concerns over aggressive artificial intelligence spending by hyperscale technology companies have become the primary force shaping AI-related equity markets, replacing other themes that have driven sentiment throughout 2026.

    The bank has developed a quantitative clustering model to determine which AI narrative is influencing global markets by monitoring the performance of hyperscalers, semiconductor manufacturers, software companies and Chinese internet stocks.

    AI Narratives Continue to Shift Investor Positioning

    According to HSBC, investors have repeatedly rotated between competing AI themes this year, creating significant swings in equity performance.

    The bank said investors “jump between competing AI narratives,” citing the release of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model and reports of growing lithography competition from mainland China as recent events that have influenced market direction.

    Its framework categorizes market behavior into five distinct AI-related scenarios.

    Overspending by Hyperscalers Tops the List

    HSBC currently assigns the greatest probability, 37%, to the “hyperscaler overspend” scenario.

    In this environment, companies supplying data center infrastructure and semiconductor technology outperform, while businesses responsible for the largest capital expenditures underperform “at the expense of the capex spenders.”

    The model suggests annualized returns of 12.3% for technology hardware stocks and 11.8% for semiconductor companies, supporting continued strength in markets such as Taiwan and South Korea.

    Defensive Rotation and China Competition Also Remain in Focus

    The bank gives a 26% probability to “AI positioning capitulation,” where investors move away from crowded AI trades into defensive industries including pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, resulting in a 14.3% decline for semiconductor stocks.

    HSBC also assigns a 20% probability to “China competition concerns,” arguing that the launch of Kimi K3 has renewed investor attention on Chinese competition and encouraged capital flows into mainland China’s media and consumer services sectors.

    The remaining scenarios include “AI disruption fears” at 9% and “AI euphoria” at 8%. In the latter case, AI supply chain companies lead market gains, while semiconductor stocks post annualized returns of 19.1%.

    HSBC said the model provides investors with a framework for evaluating how changing AI narratives influence sector leadership and the relative performance of emerging-market equities.

  • Market Open: NatWest Tops Profit Forecasts, IAG Misses on Fuel Costs

    UK shares open little changed as NatWest beats profit forecasts and IAG misses on fuel costs; Brent holds near a fourth month of gains.


    Market Overview

    UK and European markets opened little changed to firmer on Friday, tracking a global rally in technology shares after blockbuster results from Amazon lifted sentiment on Wall Street and across Asia overnight. The FTSE 100 was broadly flat at the open, the Euronext 100 edged up marginally, and Germany’s DAX added around zero point three seven per cent to trade above 25,700. In New York, the Nasdaq Composite closed up around two point seven eight per cent and the S&P 500 gained around one point six six per cent on Thursday, extending the tech-led advance, though gains were tempered by renewed geopolitical risk after reports of fresh military exchanges between the US and Iran.

    Commodity markets were mixed, with copper firmer at the open while gold and natural gas edged lower. Brent crude was little changed on the day but remains close to a fourth consecutive monthly gain of around 20 per cent, as a widening conflict between the United States and Iran continues to threaten regional energy supply routes. Sterling was broadly stable against its major peers, slipping fractionally against the US dollar, Swiss franc and euro while edging higher against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen. Bitcoin fell against sterling. The overall tone remains one of cautious optimism, with artificial intelligence-driven earnings supporting European equities even as Middle East tensions keep energy markets on edge.


    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Flat (0.00%), 10,897.12
    Euronext 100: Up (+0.01%), 1,921.74
    DAX: Up (+0.37%), 25,707.33
    NASDAQ: Up (+2.78%), 25,122.18
    S&P 500: Up (+1.66%), 7,437.63


    In the Headlines

    NatWest tops H1 profit forecasts
    NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) reported first-half operating profit before tax of four point three billion pounds, ahead of analyst forecasts of around four billion pounds, up twenty per cent on last year. The bank has moved forward its share buyback timeline to start alongside its full-year 2026 results, underlining it’s confidence in its capital position after return on tangible equity reached nineteen point seven per cent for the period.

    IAG profit misses on fuel costs
    International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG), the parent of British Airways, posted second-quarter operating profit of one point two six billion euros, below the one point three seven billion euros analysts had expected, as fuel costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East weighed on results. The group now expects flat capacity for 2026, having previously guided for growth, though it said travel demand across its network remains strong.


    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Down (-0.00%), $1.3462
    CHF: Down (-0.00%), Fr.1.0847
    EUR: Down (-0.01%), €1.1681
    JPY: Up (+0.01%), ¥215.624
    AUD: Up (+0.01%), $1.916
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down (-0.73%), £47,576.64

    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Down
    Brent Crude: Down
    Natural Gas: Down

  • Tech Stocks Poised to Drive Wall Street Higher Following Wednesday’s Sharp Decline: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Futures

    Tech Stocks Poised to Drive Wall Street Higher Following Wednesday’s Sharp Decline: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Futures

    U.S. stock futures traded firmly higher ahead of Thursday’s opening bell, indicating Wall Street could recover some of the heavy losses suffered during the previous session.

    Technology shares looked set to lead the advance, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 1.6% in premarket trading.

    Microsoft Surges While Meta Weighs on Sentiment

    Investors appeared willing to buy back into beaten-down technology stocks after Wednesday’s steep sell-off sent the Nasdaq to its lowest closing level in three months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 also closed at their weakest levels in more than a month.

    Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) jumped 9.2% before the opening after reporting quarterly earnings that topped expectations, supported by continued momentum in its Azure cloud computing business.

    Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) slid 9.7% in premarket trading after issuing revenue growth guidance that disappointed investors.

    “This reporting season has become less about headline results and more about proving that unprecedented AI spending can generate sustainable profitability,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com.

    She added, “With Apple and Amazon still to report, the market’s verdict on the AI investment cycle remains far from settled.”

    Markets Reverse Late After Afternoon Recovery

    Stocks experienced sharp swings throughout Wednesday’s session. After erasing early losses and briefly trading in positive territory during the afternoon, the major indices turned lower again in the final hour.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,153.18 points, or 2.2%, to finish at 51,594.14.

    The Nasdaq Composite lost 433.97 points, or 1.7%, closing at 24,442.94, its weakest finish in three months.

    The S&P 500 dropped 112.63 points, or 1.5%, ending at 7,316.15, marking its lowest close in well over a month.

    Federal Reserve Decision Fails to Calm Investors

    Selling pressure intensified after Treasury yields climbed despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

    The central bank maintained the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the fifth straight meeting without a rate change.

    However, the decision divided policymakers, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan all favouring a quarter-point rate increase.

    Rising Oil Prices Add to Market Volatility

    Markets also contended with a sharp rebound in crude oil prices.

    U.S. crude futures rose more than 6% after losing 14% over the previous three sessions as concerns resurfaced over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

    According to U.S. Central Command, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East on Tuesday, although the projectiles were intercepted.

    Centcom later confirmed that U.S. and Saudi Arabian forces carried out precision strikes against Iran-backed militant targets in Iraq following more than 30 drone attacks over the previous 72 hours.

    President Donald Trump also warned of a strong U.S. response, telling a Fox News reporter: “They’re going to get a beating.”

    Chipmakers Among the Hardest Hit

    Semiconductor shares were among the weakest performers, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbling 5.3% to its lowest closing level in three months.

    Housing stocks also fell sharply as higher Treasury yields pressured the sector, sending the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down 4.3%.

    Networking, computer hardware, airline and banking stocks also posted notable losses, while energy companies outperformed as higher crude oil prices lifted the sector.

  • European Stocks Advance as Corporate Earnings Offset Interest Rate Uncertainty: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Stocks Advance as Corporate Earnings Offset Interest Rate Uncertainty: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equity markets traded higher on Thursday as investors assessed another wave of corporate earnings while weighing the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged following a closely divided 9-3 vote.

    Bank of England Holds Rates Steady

    In the latest monetary policy decision, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations.

    The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Governor Andrew Bailey, voted 6-3 to maintain the bank rate at 3.75%, its lowest level since June 2023.

    French Economy Returns to Growth

    Fresh economic data showed that France avoided slipping into recession during the second quarter as stronger consumer spending and exports supported economic activity.

    Preliminary figures from INSEE showed gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, reversing the 0.1% contraction recorded in the first quarter and matching economists’ forecasts.

    Separate data also indicated that French household spending accelerated in June, helped by increased expenditure on food and energy.

    Major European Indices Trade Higher

    The French CAC 40 gained 0.9%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.4%. Germany’s DAX also moved higher, rising 0.1%.

    Rolls-Royce Leads UK Market Higher

    Among individual stocks, Rolls Royce Holdings (LSE:RR.) climbed more than 4% after the engineering group upgraded its full-year profit outlook following a strong first-half operating and financial performance.

    Shell (LSE:SHEL) added around 1% after reporting that second-quarter profit more than doubled.

    BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) rose 1.1% after lifting its full-year guidance for sales, profitability and cash flow following a strong first half.

    Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) gained nearly 2% after unveiling further cost-cutting measures, increasing its interim dividend and announcing a new £1 billion share buyback following a 23% rise in first-half profit.

    European Companies Deliver Mixed Results

    Dutch banking group ING (EU:INGA) advanced 2% after posting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and improving its outlook.

    Stellantis (BIT:STLAM) fell 5.3% after adjusted operating income for the second quarter missed market expectations.

    French infrastructure company Vinci (EU:DG) jumped nearly 5% after exceeding forecasts for first-half profit and free cash flow, supported by strong momentum in its Energy Solutions division.

    Veolia (EU:VIE), a global environmental services provider, gained 1.7% after reporting solid first-half earnings and raising its full-year profit guidance.

    Capgemini (EU:CAP) declined 1.7% after announcing a sharp drop in first-half net profit.

    Air France-KLM (EU:AF) rose 1.5%, while Deutsche Lufthansa edged higher after both airlines submitted offers to acquire a controlling interest in TAP Air Portugal.

    Hotel operator Accor (EU:AC) slipped 1.3% after reporting a slight decline in second-quarter revenue per available room.

    Bouygues (EU:EN) surged 7% after publishing improved first-half financial results.

    Schneider Electric (EU:SU) rallied 6.4% after delivering record first-half revenue and free cash flow.

    Sanofi (EU:SAN) fell 3.6% despite raising its full-year sales guidance.

    Societe Generale (EU:GLE) climbed 2.4% after announcing plans to begin a €1.5 billion share buyback programme as early as August 3.

    Adidas Slides While BMW Gains

    Adidas (TG:ADS) plunged more than 17% after higher marketing spending related to the football World Cup weighed on quarterly profit.

    Meanwhile, BMW (TG:BMW) gained 1.7% after reporting a second-quarter automotive profit margin that came in slightly ahead of expectations.

  • Market Open: Lloyds Profit Beats Estimates, LSEG Shares Slip

    Market Open: Lloyds Profit Beats Estimates, LSEG Shares Slip

    FTSE 100 steady at the open as Lloyds beats profit forecasts with a new 2030 plan and LSEG shares slip despite raised guidance, amid US-Iran tensions.

    Market Overview

    European and US equity markets opened on a cautious footing on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 easing marginally to 10,907.37, down 0.01 per cent, and the Euronext 100 slipping to 1,899.63, also down 0.01 per cent, both broadly flat after Wednesday’s session. Germany’s DAX was down 0.19 per cent at 25,411.24 shortly after the Frankfurt open. Wall Street set a weaker overnight tone, with the Nasdaq Composite closing down 1.74 per cent at 24,442.94 and the S&P 500 down 1.52 per cent at 7,316.15, as investors weighed the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran following fresh US strikes, and awaited the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision.

    Among commodities, copper and natural gas edged higher while gold and Brent Crude eased back, even as Middle East tensions continue to underpin energy prices. Bitcoin was firmer against sterling. Sterling itself was broadly steady, edging higher against the US dollar, Australian dollar and euro while easing slightly against the yen and Swiss franc, leaving the currency largely rangebound as markets braced for the Bank of England’s rate call.

    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Down (-0.01 per cent), 10,907.37
    Euronext 100: Down (-0.01 per cent), 1,899.63
    DAX: Down (-0.19 per cent), 25,411.24
    NASDAQ: Down (-1.74 per cent), 24,442.94
    S&P 500: Down (-1.52 per cent), 7,316.15

    In the Headlines

    Profit beat, new 2030 plan – Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY)
    Lloyds Banking Group posted a second-quarter profit of £2.3 billion, ahead of analyst forecasts, and unveiled an “Accelerate 2030” strategy targeting a 20 per cent return on tangible equity alongside a new £1 billion share buyback. The results and growth plan reassure investors on the health of the UK banking sector ahead of this week’s Bank of England rate decision.

    Shares slip despite guidance raise – London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG)
    London Stock Exchange Group beat first-half earnings expectations and raised its full-year revenue guidance, yet its shares slipped as investors focused on the long-dated timeline of its round-the-clock trading initiative. The move highlights how execution timing, rather than headline earnings, is currently driving sentiment towards UK financial services stocks.

    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Up (0.00 per cent), $1.3368
    CHF: Down (0.00 per cent), Fr.1.0873
    EUR: Up (0.01 per cent), €1.1658
    JPY: Down (-0.02 per cent), ¥218.2905
    AUD: Up (0.00 per cent), $1.9207
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, (0.30 per cent), £47,956.56

    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Down
    Brent Crude: Down
    Natural Gas: Up

  • Markets Watch Fed Outlook as Tech Giants Kick Off Key Earnings Wave: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Markets Watch Fed Outlook as Tech Giants Kick Off Key Earnings Wave: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures traded modestly higher on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement and a fresh round of earnings from some of the world’s largest technology companies. Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged, a split vote among policymakers and ongoing inflation concerns kept markets on edge. Meanwhile, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) rallied after its results, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) moved sharply lower as investors scrutinised each company’s artificial intelligence spending strategy.

    Futures Recover Following Wall Street Decline

    By 01:55 ET (05:55 GMT), futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 27 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 15 points, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 133 points, or 0.5%.

    The modest gains followed a weaker session on Wall Street, where investors focused on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the conclusion of the central bank’s latest policy meeting.

    Semiconductor stocks remained under heavy selling pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.33%, extending its losses over the past five trading sessions to more than 14%. The Nasdaq 100 also slipped into correction territory after falling over 10% from its recent high.

    Market sentiment has been weighed down by concerns that the enormous investment flowing into AI infrastructure—including advanced chips and data centres—may take longer than expected to generate meaningful returns. Increased competition from Chinese technology companies has added to investor caution.

    Those concerns came into sharper focus after Microsoft and Meta became the first major AI-focused technology companies to publish quarterly earnings.

    Geopolitical developments also remained in focus after renewed U.S. military action involving Iran. Brent crude futures rose 1.4% to $92.01 per barrel after surging roughly 7% during Wednesday’s session.

    Fed Signals Readiness Despite Holding Rates

    The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged within a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, although three members of the policy committee voted in favour of a rate increase.

    Officials continue to face elevated inflation, which remains well above the central bank’s 2% objective, largely due to higher energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran.

    While June inflation figures were softer than expected, persistent volatility in oil markets has complicated the inflation outlook.

    Although raising interest rates could help contain price pressures, policymakers must also consider the potential impact on a labour market that has shown limited hiring and subdued layoffs.

    Kevin Warsh, who was overseeing only his second policy decision as Federal Reserve Chair, stressed that leaving rates unchanged should not be interpreted as a lack of willingness to act.

    “There was nothing inertial about our discussions,” Warsh said.

    Asked whether additional rate increases could help reduce inflation, Warsh responded that they remained an available policy tool but added, “I wouldn’t say it’s in isolation.” He also suggested that higher long-term Treasury yields since the June meeting were already helping tighten financial conditions.

    U.S. Treasury yields rose following his remarks as investors searched for signals about the Fed’s next policy move.

    “[T]he vague and arguably counterproductive communications from […] Warsh during the press conference make forecasting the Fed’s next move even trickier than it already was,” said Thomas Ryan, Senior North America Economist at Capital Economics.

    Microsoft Delivers Another Strong Quarter

    Microsoft exceeded market expectations after reporting continued strength across its cloud computing operations and growing adoption of its AI services.

    Revenue for the quarter ended in June climbed 18% to $90 billion, while net income surged 31% to $35.8 billion.

    Chief Executive Satya Nadella also disclosed that annual revenue generated by Microsoft’s AI-powered Azure cloud platform exceeded $100 billion for the first time.

    Because Microsoft rarely reports Azure’s revenue separately, the announcement attracted considerable attention from investors comparing its performance with Google’s cloud business.

    The software company also reaffirmed its commitment to AI investment. Capital expenditure reached $41 billion during the quarter, up nearly 70% year over year, lifting annual capital spending to $145.3 billion.

    The strong Azure performance reassured investors that the company’s aggressive AI investment strategy continues to deliver results, sending Microsoft’s shares more than 7% higher in after-hours trading.

    Meta Falls as Spending Plans Concern Investors

    Meta Platforms posted record second-quarter revenue of $60.8 billion, but its shares fell more than 7% after the results were released.

    The decline reflected investor concern over higher spending expectations. Meta increased its minimum capital expenditure forecast for the year to $130 billion from $125 billion previously, while maintaining the upper end of its guidance at $145 billion.

    Although executives were expected to provide greater clarity around AI monetisation during the earnings call, investors remained cautious.

    Meta also reported free cash flow of less than $1 billion, while quarterly net income declined 14% to $18.3 billion.

    Its revenue outlook for the current quarter also disappointed expectations, and the company warned that ongoing legal proceedings related to the impact of social media on younger users could result in material financial losses.

    Attention now shifts to Apple and Amazon, which are both scheduled to report quarterly earnings later on Thursday.

    Qualcomm, Starbucks and Chipotle Also Update Investors

    Elsewhere, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares moved lower in extended trading after the semiconductor company issued weaker-than-expected guidance.

    Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the business intends to raise product prices to offset rising manufacturing and memory costs, adding that the wider semiconductor industry continues to experience supply chain challenges driven by strong demand for AI-related data centres.

    Qualcomm posted adjusted third-quarter earnings per share of $2.21, narrowly missing FactSet estimates. Revenue declined 4% to $9.95 billion but still came in ahead of analyst forecasts.

    Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) delivered quarterly earnings above expectations, supported by improving customer traffic across North America and continued progress in its turnaround strategy. Its shares rose approximately 4% in after-hours trading.

    Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) also reported stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings, helped by continued restaurant expansion and branding initiatives. The company raised its full-year comparable sales outlook, sending its shares higher after the market closed.