Category: Top Story

Jefferies has cut its rating on Greggs (LSE:GRG) to “hold” from “buy” and reduced its price target sharply to 1,610p from 2,500p, arguing that the growing use of weight-loss medications is creating a structural drag on demand. The downgrade comes after what the broker describes as around 18 months of declining sales volumes, with the shares falling more than 3% on Monday. Greggs is currently trading at around 1,675p.

The analysts said they now view the rapid adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists, including drugs such as Mounjaro and Wegovy, as a “noticeable headwind” for the bakery chain. As a result, Jefferies has materially lowered its medium-term expectations, cutting like-for-like (LFL) sales growth assumptions from 4.5% to 2.5%, largely due to an expectation that volumes will remain under pressure.

According to the broker, Greggs’ trading momentum has been weakening since mid-2024, with LFL sales gradually decelerating and volumes consistently turning negative. The company’s reported Q4 2025 LFL growth of 2.9% also missed management’s guidance of around 4%, despite more normalised weather conditions. With price increases contributing an estimated 5–6 percentage points to LFL growth, Jefferies infers that underlying volumes are still falling by roughly 2% to 3%.

While management has pointed to softer consumer spending and adverse weather, including Storm Eowyn in January 2025 and the UK’s warmest summer on record, Jefferies said these factors do not fully explain either the scale or the persistence of the slowdown.

The broker highlighted data from IQVIA indicating that the number of UK users of Mounjaro and Wegovy reached 2.5 million by July 2025, a near-70% increase in just four months and a fivefold rise year-on-year. Jefferies believes current usage may now be close to 4 million people, equivalent to about 7.5% of the UK adult population.

Studies cited by the analysts suggest GLP-1 users typically cut daily calorie intake by 25% to 30%, or roughly 1,000 calories per day for higher-intake consumers. The largest reductions are seen in savoury, salty, high-fat and calorie-dense foods, categories that overlap heavily with Greggs’ core offer.

Although Jefferies acknowledges that GLP-1 users tend to skew older, female and higher income than Greggs’ average customer, it argues that the overlap could be disproportionately harmful. The analysts said that “Where the two Venn diagrams intersect” sits a group of high-BMI consumers who are likely “some of Greggs’ best customers,” warning that these individuals could move “from being amongst Greggs’ most valued, to potentially never spending a penny with the business again.”

The report also notes comments from Greggs chief executive Roisin Currie, who said in January 2026 there was “no doubt” that weight-loss drugs were having an impact on the business.

Reflecting what it sees as a structural challenge, Jefferies now forecasts EBIT margins to decline by 50 basis points in FY26 and a further 30 basis points in FY27. Pre-tax profit for FY26 is projected at £171 million, broadly flat compared with an estimated £170 million in FY25.

J D Wetherspoon (LSE:JDW) has reiterated its policy on dogs in its pubs after a BBC report questioned whether its approach could conflict with equality legislation. The company said it welcomes assistance dogs but requires owners to provide evidence of training from Assistance Dogs UK, arguing that the policy is designed to balance accessibility for disabled customers with its legal responsibility to safeguard staff and other patrons.

The pub operator pointed to a rise in dog-related incidents both nationally and across its own estate, noting that reported staff dog bites increased from one case in 2020 to 15 in 2025. Chairman Tim Martin said that allowing dogs entry first and relying on staff to assess behaviour afterwards, as recommended by Assistance Dogs UK, increases the risk of incidents. He added that Wetherspoon’s requirement for documentation is consistent with other regulatory checks, such as proof-of-age requirements or blue-badge verification for parking.

From a market perspective, Wetherspoon’s shares continue to be underpinned by supportive technical indicators and a valuation that investors view as reasonable. While trading performance has shown signs of recovery, elevated debt levels and a history of cash flow volatility remain areas of concern. Limited recent earnings call commentary and a lack of major corporate events restrict further insight into near-term strategy.

More about J D Wetherspoon

J D Wetherspoon is a UK-based pub group that owns and operates venues across the country, focusing on offering food and drink at accessible prices. The company emphasises individually designed pubs, consistent service standards, and maintaining its estate to appeal to a broad and diverse customer base.

Plus500 (LSE:PLUS) delivered a solid performance in 2025, with revenue increasing 3% to $792.4m and EBITDA rising 2% to $348.1m, reflecting tight cost control and continued operating discipline. The group ended the year debt-free with around $0.8bn in cash, while its focus on higher-value, longer-tenure clients drove a sharp rise in average deposits per active customer and lifted ARPU to a record level. This supported $187.5m of shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks.

Strategically, the company continued to diversify its revenue base, scaling its non-OTC operations beyond $100m in annual revenue and increasing customer segregated funds to more than $0.9bn. Plus500 also expanded its institutional footprint through additional clearing memberships, a new partnership with Topstep, and the completion of the Mehta Equities acquisition in India. Expansion into prediction markets, including roles linked to CME Group, FanDuel and Kalshi, alongside new regulatory licences in Canada, the UAE, Japan and Colombia, further strengthens its positioning as a provider of global market infrastructure.

Management believes these initiatives leave the group well placed for continued progress in 2026, supported by a broader product mix and expanding geographic reach. From an investment perspective, Plus500’s outlook is underpinned by strong profitability, low leverage and healthy cash generation, complemented by a reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield. Technical indicators point to a strong upward trend, although very overbought momentum suggests an increased risk of near-term pullbacks.

More about Plus500

Plus500 is a global multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary, technology-driven trading platforms for retail and institutional clients. The company offers both OTC and non-OTC products across derivatives, futures and, increasingly, prediction markets, while continuing to expand its regulated presence across North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, India and Latin America.

Centrica (LSE:CAN) has completed the sale of a number of non-core European energy solutions operations, raising proceeds in excess of £80m. The divestments cover businesses in Italy, the Netherlands and Hungary, along with the Panoramic Power unit, and form part of the group’s ongoing efforts to simplify and refocus its portfolio.

The Italian and Dutch operations have been sold to Joulz, a portfolio company of 3i Infrastructure, while the Hungarian business has been transferred through a management buyout. The transactions mark another step in Centrica’s programme of exiting activities deemed non-core to its long-term strategy.

Chief executive Chris O’Shea said the disposals are designed to sharpen the focus of Centrica Business on priority growth and innovation areas, improving the group’s capacity to pursue new opportunities in its key markets. The move follows recent asset sales at Spirit Energy and highlights Centrica’s broader strategy of recycling capital from non-core assets into future investment. This includes increased exposure to large-scale, long-term infrastructure projects such as Sizewell C and the Grain LNG terminal, supporting a more infrastructure-weighted earnings and capital allocation profile over time.

From an investment perspective, Centrica’s outlook is supported by positive corporate actions, notably its ongoing share buyback programme and targeted strategic investments, which underpin shareholder returns. These positives are partially offset by valuation challenges linked to a negative price-to-earnings ratio and mixed technical signals in the shares.

More about Centrica

Centrica plc is a UK-listed energy group supplying electricity, gas and related services to residential and business customers. The company is steadily reshaping its portfolio, recycling capital from non-core operations into areas it views as strategic growth priorities, including regulated and contracted assets such as nuclear and LNG infrastructure.

NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) has reached an agreement to acquire UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners for an enterprise value of £2.7bn and announced a £750m share buyback, a move it says will establish the UK’s leading private banking and wealth management platform. The transaction, which will be funded from existing resources, is expected to complete in summer 2026 subject to regulatory approvals.

The acquisition will combine Evelyn Partners’ £69bn of assets under management and administration with NatWest’s existing £59bn, creating a combined £127bn AUMA and £188bn in total customer assets and liabilities. Evelyn Partners has delivered annual AUMA growth of more than 7% and reported £179m of EBITDA in 2025, supported by an integrated offering spanning financial planning, discretionary investment management, and direct-to-consumer services.

NatWest expects the enlarged business to lift fee income by around 20% ahead of revenue synergies and generate approximately £100m in annual cost savings, with an estimated £150m required to realise those efficiencies. The group said the deal should be accretive to earnings growth and return on tangible equity in its first year, despite an anticipated impact of roughly 130 basis points on its CET1 capital ratio.

From a market perspective, NatWest’s outlook is underpinned by strong technical signals and an attractive valuation profile. Recent earnings commentary and positive corporate developments further support sentiment, although some volatility in cash flow remains a moderating factor for the overall investment case.

More about NatWest Group

NatWest Group is a major UK banking group focused on retail and commercial banking, savings and lending, and an expanding private banking and wealth management franchise. Serving around 20 million customers, the group is targeting growth in fee-based, capital-light activities through the continued development of wealth management and investment services across the UK.

Shell (LSE:SHEL) announced on Friday that it has appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as its next external auditor, with the firm set to assume the role from 2027 after the conclusion of a formal tender process.

PwC will replace EY, whose audit work at the energy group has come under scrutiny. In December, the UK’s Financial Reporting Council opened an investigation into EY’s audit of Shell’s 2024 accounts, focusing on possible breaches of audit partner rotation requirements.

Shell had already flagged regulatory issues last July, disclosing that rules obliging listed companies to rotate lead audit partners every five to seven years, as well as enforce cooling-off periods before partners can return to the same client, had not been fully complied with.

At the time, the company said it would need to restate its 2023 and 2024 annual reports after EY failed to meet U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission standards on partner rotation. Shell emphasized that the revisions would be technical in nature and would not affect the underlying financial results.