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The U.S. dollar showed a modest gain on Tuesday, though overall currency market activity remained muted as traders awaited clearer indications on trade negotiations ahead of the looming August 1 deadline. This deadline threatens hefty tariffs on U.S. trading partners that have yet to finalize agreements.

The Japanese yen largely retained its previous session’s gains following Japan’s weekend upper house elections, which unfolded as expected. Market attention now turns to how swiftly Tokyo might secure a trade deal with Washington and the political future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

With just over a week remaining before the tariff deadline, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized Monday that the administration prioritizes the quality of trade agreements over rushing their completion. When asked if the deadline might be extended for countries making good progress, Bessent deferred the decision to President Donald Trump.

This uncertainty surrounding the final form and extent of tariffs continues to weigh heavily on forex markets, keeping major currencies confined within narrow ranges—even as U.S. stock indices hit new highs.

“Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump’s letters from two weeks ago,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

The euro slipped slightly to $1.1692 as investors await this week’s European Central Bank meeting, which is widely expected to leave eurozone interest rates unchanged.

Efforts to forge a deal between the European Union—facing a potential 30% tariff from August 1—and the U.S. remain stalled. EU diplomats revealed on Monday they are considering a broader set of countermeasures given dimming hopes for an agreement.

“The Trump administration has shown little tolerance for retaliatory measures, and there is a risk this could spiral (even if temporarily) into a tit-for-tat tariff escalation. The euro’s ability to maintain preference over the dollar amid tariff tensions will depend on the extent of any escalation and whether the EU emerges as a relative loser while other countries secure significant deals with the U.S.”

In a separate development, the ECB reported Tuesday that loan demand among eurozone companies improved in the last quarter and is expected to rise further, despite the cloud of tariff threats and geopolitical risks.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar edged up 0.1% to 97.91 after dropping 0.6% on Monday.

Investor concerns also lingered over the Federal Reserve’s independence, as President Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and called for his resignation due to the central bank’s reluctance to lower interest rates.

“Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff- driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. “But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House’s whims.”

The yen remained a focal point, trading slightly lower at 147.64 on Tuesday after climbing 1% Monday post-election and holiday.

The initial relief for the yen that the ruling coalition did not lose even more seats and that Prime Minister Ishiba plans to hang on to power is likely to prove short-lived,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG. “The pick-up in political uncertainty in Japan could complicate reaching a timely trade deal with the U.S., posing downside risks for Japan’s economy and the yen.”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices declined in Asian markets on Tuesday as traders assessed that recent European sanctions on Russia would have minimal effect on global supply. Meanwhile, growing concerns over a potential trade dispute between the U.S. and the European Union also weighed on prices.

Despite the U.S. dollar weakening sharply and trimming some of its recent gains, crude futures saw little uplift. Brent crude for September delivery dropped 0.5% to $68.86 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.5% to $65.61 per barrel as of 21:15 ET (01:15 GMT).

Trade War Concerns Escalate

The oil market remains unsettled amid escalating tensions between Washington and Brussels regarding tariff policies. Reports indicate that the U.S. is pushing for tariffs of at least 15% on European imports, a demand that surprised EU negotiators and prompted threats of retaliatory duties on American products.

ANZ analysts cautioned that this stalemate could dampen economic growth and reduce oil demand, especially if the U.S. implements steep tariffs against the EU. Alongside EU-related tariffs, the U.S. plans to enforce significant duties on other key trading partners starting August 1, including a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, 35% on Canadian products, and 50% on imports from Brazil.

The high tariff rates have raised alarms over their potential to disrupt the global economy and, by extension, hurt crude oil consumption.

Sanctions on Russia Have Limited Influence

Meanwhile, recent European Union sanctions tightening restrictions on Russia’s oil sector failed to bolster prices significantly. Analysts from ANZ expressed skepticism that these measures would substantially curb Moscow’s oil exports.

The sanctions are part of ongoing efforts linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which shows no signs of abating after more than three years. Although the war initially pushed oil prices to near-record levels, markets have since largely factored out the risk of supply disruptions caused by the conflict.

Nonetheless, the U.S. continues to maintain stringent sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equity markets slipped on Tuesday as trade friction between the EU and the U.S. cast a shadow over investor confidence, with corporate earnings continuing to pour in.

At 07:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each fell 0.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 remained mostly flat.

Investor sentiment remains fragile following U.S. President Donald Trump’s earlier announcement that a 30% tariff on EU imports will take effect on August 1. Talks are ongoing, but with no clear resolution in sight, the clock is ticking. The EU has reportedly pushed for a 10% baseline tariff, though The Wall Street Journal noted that U.S. officials now want 15% or more, creating further friction.

In response, Germany and other EU nations are reportedly considering broad “anti-coercion” measures that could target U.S. services if the EU cannot strike a deal, according to Reuters, citing EU diplomatic sources.

Earnings Season Keeps Investors Busy

As trade concerns simmer, attention is also fixed on Q2 corporate results. With the euro having jumped 9% in Q2, investors are watching closely for signs of margin pressure among exporters.

• Lindt & Spruengli (TG:LSPN) raised its full-year organic sales growth forecast to 9–11%, up from 7–9%, citing continued demand for premium chocolates.
• Norsk Hydro (TG:A2R0MA) reported a 33% jump in Q2 core profit, buoyed by stronger aluminium and energy prices.
• Julius Baer (TG:JGE) disappointed investors with a 35% year-over-year drop in first-half net income, blaming higher loan loss provisions and a charge from the sale of its Brazilian wealth unit.
• Mitie Group (LSE:MTO) posted a 10.1% year-on-year rise in Q1 FY26 revenue, driven by new contract wins, project delivery, and pricing momentum.

Eyes on the ECB

The macroeconomic calendar is light for Europe today, but all attention turns to Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. Analysts broadly expect the European Central Bank to hold its deposit rate at 2%, following a 25-basis-point cut in June, the ECB’s eighth in 12 months.

While that cut was motivated by weakening inflation and subdued economic activity in the eurozone, the ECB has signaled a likely pause in July, as trade tensions and macro uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

Oil Prices Retreat

Crude prices edged lower amid growing fears that a transatlantic trade war could dent global growth and energy demand.

At 03:02 ET, Brent crude dropped 0.4% to $68.94 per barrel, while U.S. WTI futures also slipped 0.4% to $65.67. Both benchmarks had posted marginal losses on Monday.

With U.S. tariffs on EU goods set to hit on August 1, markets remain on edge. The White House has described that date as a “hard deadline”, raising the stakes for ongoing negotiations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Petershill Partners PLC (LSE:PHLL) reported a 3% beat on market expectations for fee-paying assets under management (FPAUM) in the second quarter of 2025, ending the period with $245 billion—well above the $238 billion consensus.

The upside was driven by earlier-than-expected fundraising activity, which had previously been projected for the second half of the year. Gross organic FPAUM rose by $12 billion in the quarter, significantly ahead of the $7 billion analysts had anticipated.

The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 2025, targeting $20–25 billion in gross organic fee-eligible AUM raises, $5–10 billion in realizations, and $180–210 million in partner fee-related earnings (FRE). FPAUM not yet generating fees declined to $3 billion from $4 billion in Q1, reflecting improved fee activation.

Petershill also finalized the divestment of its stake in Harvest Partners for $561 million, marking a 22% premium to the carrying value. The deal includes an initial cash payment of $140 million, with a further $421 million due one year after closing.

While the Harvest transaction is expected to reduce distributable earnings by 4–5% in 2025 and 2026, the company noted it will assess how best to allocate the proceeds. Options include pursuing new acquisitions, strengthening support for current partner firms, or returning capital to shareholders through distributions.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Diaceutics PLC (LSE:DXRX) reported a 22% year-on-year increase in revenue at constant currency for the first half of 2025, reaching £14.6 million—an 18% rise on a reported basis. The diagnostics commercialization firm maintained its full-year revenue growth target of 25%, which would bring total 2025 revenue to around £40 million.

While growth moderated in the final two months of the half, compared to the 35% growth rate seen in the first four months, Diaceutics continues to show progress in transitioning toward a subscription-driven model. Approximately 70% of revenue in H1 was recurring, up from 55% in fiscal year 2024.

The company’s order book stood at £29.4 million as of June 30, up 18% from the end of last year. Of this, £8.8 million is expected to convert to revenue in the second half of 2025, giving Diaceutics 79% visibility on full-year consensus forecasts—an improvement from 71% at the same point in 2024.

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) rose 16% year-over-year to £16.4 million, reflecting continued success in deepening client relationships. Diaceutics is now working across 74 therapeutic brands for 43 customers, up from 63 brands in H1 last year. Revenue per brand held steady at around £395,000 on an annualized basis.

Notably, the company secured an additional multi-year enterprise-wide contract worth £0.8 million in ARR, bringing its total to eight such deals spanning 35 brands.

Adjusted EBITDA for the first half was positive, and management remains confident in delivering full-year profitability. Market consensus projects £7.2 million in adjusted EBITDA (an 18% margin) and £1.0 million in net income for FY2025.

Gross cash at mid-year was £10.4 million, down from £12.7 million in December 2024 and £13.7 million in April, though management expects the balance to improve in H2, targeting at least break-even free cash flow for the full year.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Admiral Group Plc (LSE:ADM) saw its shares decline on Tuesday following a statement from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) highlighting concerns about claims handling across the insurance sector.

According to the FCA’s latest review, soaring motor insurance premiums are largely the result of external cost pressures—such as rising vehicle prices, parts, and labor—rather than increased insurer profits. The regulator emphasized that while higher theft claims are also contributing to the surge, the industry’s claims management practices require significant improvement.

Although the FCA acknowledged these broader cost drivers, it also criticized some insurers for poor claims performance, particularly in the home and travel insurance markets. The review pointed to a range of shortcomings, including inadequate oversight of outsourced claims handlers, excessive complaint volumes, slow claim resolutions, and notably low approval rates for storm-related damage.

These findings are part of a wider examination into how insurers are managing customer claims amid shifting market dynamics. While not singling out Admiral directly, the market interpreted the regulatory scrutiny as a warning for the entire sector, contributing to the dip in the company’s stock price.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The UK government has officially approved the construction of the £38 billion Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk, marking a major milestone for one of the country’s most ambitious energy infrastructure projects in recent memory.

The project, now fully backed by a mix of domestic and global investors, includes prominent names like Canada’s La Caisse pension fund. The British government will hold the largest stake at 44.9%, followed by La Caisse with 20%. Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA) will invest for a 15% share, while Amber Infrastructure and France’s EDF (EU:EDFBZ) will own 7.6% and 12.5%, respectively.

Centrica shares surged over 4% on the news, reflecting investor confidence in the long-term profitability of the project.

Sizewell C represents a renewed commitment to nuclear power in Europe, aligning with broader goals to upgrade ageing energy infrastructure, enhance energy security, and meet climate change targets. Once completed, the facility is expected to power around 6 million homes and create up to 10,000 jobs at the height of construction activity. It will be only the second new nuclear power station built in the UK in the last two decades.

Centrica’s investment in the project totals £1.3 billion, structured with a phased funding model. Roughly 40% of the capital will be deployed by the end of 2028, and the company anticipates generating £750 million in cash yield during the construction phase.

The financial outlook is strong: Centrica expects a real return on equity of 10.8% and an internal rate of return above 12%. The company believes the investment will be earnings accretive starting in 2026. By 2028, EBITDA contributions are projected at £50 million, increasing to £150 million once the plant is operational.

At completion, Centrica’s share of the regulated asset base is expected to reach £3 billion, supported by gearing levels around 65%.

Analysts are optimistic. RBC’s Alexander Wheeler noted that the project’s structure under the regulated asset base (RAB) model offers attractive returns and risk protection. Jefferies analysts echoed the sentiment, estimating a net present value benefit of 20–25 pence per share—well above their previous projection of 14–15 pence.

They cautioned that full market recognition may take time due to potential variability in implementation scenarios, but acknowledged the deal as a clear positive for Centrica’s long-term growth and income outlook.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Since Trump’s second term, trade wars have been among the hottest topics in the US. Last week, the President said he would send letters to more than 150 countries notifying them that their tariffs could be 10% or 15%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got nervous momentarily, but then resumed growth.

This resistance to negative news seems to come from the TACO trade — investors bet on a de-escalation after the initial tough talk or tariff threats. As for the concern about a pickup in inflation that the Fed chairman keeps mentioning in every speech, some started questioning whether the risk is overblown.

After all, it has been months since Donald Trump introduced the first round of tariffs this year, and the impact on prices has been relatively mild. In June, headline inflation rose by 0.3% from the previous month, while core inflation rose by only 0.2% (below expectations), which is far from worrying.

Does this mean the Fed was wrong all along?

Not necessarily. According to the Fed’s July Beige Book, some companies refrained from raising prices because customers were becoming more cost-sensitive, which squeezed their profit margins. If these cost pressures persist, we could see consumer prices rise more rapidly in late summer.

With that in mind, it’s possible the full impact of tariffs just hasn’t shown up yet, partly because companies have been absorbing the costs. That’s one reason analysts have lowered their earnings forecasts for the second quarter. If that’s the case, businesses will eventually look to recover those losses.

The bottom line is that as long as tariff uncertainty persists, the Fed is unlikely to rush to cut interest rates, even if the U.S. president continues to push for it. The real problems could come if Donald Trump finally forces Jerome Powell to resign, as monetary policy does not align with his agenda.

Forcing the Fed chairman out could undermine confidence in the central bank and the dollar itself, subsequently triggering a further decline in its value and in U.S. Treasuries. No wonder the Bank of England has asked major banks to stress test their exposure to a potential dollar crisis.

In plain terms, the full impact of tariffs hasn’t hit yet. And the Fed knows it. Its unwillingness to cut rates as quickly as Trump demands suggests a deeper fear: inflation is far from conquered.

Kier Group plc (LSE:KIE) has provided a positive trading update for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with revenue and profit expected to meet the Board’s forecasts. The company boasts a high-quality order book valued at approximately £11 billion, with 88% of FY26 revenue already secured. Strong free cash flow generation has improved the net cash position to around £204 million, a 22% increase year-on-year. The update also notes the retirement of CEO Andrew Davies, succeeded by Stuart Togwell, alongside major project milestones in the Property division and strategic residential sector partnerships. These developments underpin Kier’s sustainable growth strategy and aim to enhance shareholder value.

Kier Group plc’s outlook is supported by robust financial performance, strong cash flow management, and positive technical momentum. The ongoing share buyback programme further boosts shareholder returns, despite moderate valuation levels.

More about Kier Group plc

Kier Group plc is a leading UK infrastructure, construction, and property group, offering specialist design and build services. The company harnesses the expertise and intellectual capital of its workforce to manage and integrate all project aspects efficiently.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

hVIVO plc (LSE:HVO) recorded revenue of £24.2 million in the first half of 2025, with a full-year revenue forecast of £47 million. The recent acquisitions of CRS and Cryostore have expanded the company’s service portfolio and customer base, contributing £5.5 million to group revenue. Despite challenges specific to its sector, hVIVO maintains a strong sales pipeline and is focused on diversifying revenue streams and growing its clinical service offerings.

The company’s outlook benefits from solid financial performance and an attractive valuation, supported by positive corporate developments that signal strategic growth and leadership confidence. However, technical indicators advise some caution due to potential downward momentum.

More about Open Orphan Plc

hVIVO plc is a full-service Contract Research Organisation (CRO) and a global leader in human challenge trials. It delivers comprehensive clinical development services to a broad and growing client base, including seven of the world’s ten largest biopharmaceutical companies.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.