Blog

  • DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Shares Edge Higher as Focus Turns to U.S. Inflation and Bank Results

    DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Shares Edge Higher as Focus Turns to U.S. Inflation and Bank Results

    European equity markets traded slightly firmer on Tuesday, with investors balancing geopolitical risks against key economic data and the start of the quarterly earnings season.

    By 08:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 0.1% and London’s FTSE 100 added 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%.

    Wall Street momentum offers support

    European sentiment took a modest boost from the U.S., where the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high, led by continued strength in technology stocks. Markets were also encouraged by gains in Asia after Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a new peak, helped by reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could call an early election to strengthen her parliamentary position—a move that could open the door to additional fiscal stimulus.

    Despite these positives, upside in Europe appeared capped as investors remained focused on escalating tensions in Iran. Widespread protests against the country’s clerical leadership have reportedly been met with force, raising concerns over instability in the region.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on trade with the United States. Iran’s main trading partners include China, several East Asian economies, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Germany. Trump is also expected to meet senior advisers later in the day to review policy options on Iran.

    U.S. inflation data awaited

    With little in the way of European economic releases on Tuesday, attention is firmly on the latest U.S. consumer price data, the final major inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month.

    Economists expect headline CPI to come in at 2.7% year on year for December, unchanged from November, with monthly inflation also seen holding at 0.3%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to edge higher to 2.7% annually from 2.6%, and to 0.3% month on month from 0.2%.

    Corporate news in focus

    In Europe’s corporate sector, Lindt & Spruengli (TG:LSPP) said organic sales rose just over 12.4% in 2025, slightly ahead of market forecasts, with the Swiss chocolatier benefiting from higher cocoa prices.

    Sika (TG:SIKA) reported a 4.8% decline in full-year sales, as weak construction demand and currency headwinds offset growth achieved in local currencies.

    In the UK, Whitbread (LSE:WTB) posted a 2% rise in third-quarter group sales, supported by stronger accommodation revenue in both the UK and Germany.

    However, much of the market’s attention is on the U.S., where earnings from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) later in the session will effectively kick off the Wall Street earnings season. Expectations for banks are generally upbeat, though Trump’s announcement that credit card interest rates will be capped at 10% from January 20 could complicate the outlook.

    Oil prices extend gains

    Oil prices moved higher for a fourth straight session, as concerns grew over potential supply disruptions from Iran amid intensifying unrest.

    Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $64.16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 0.8% to $59.82. Brent hit a seven-week high in the previous session, with WTI touching a one-month peak.

    Iran, one of OPEC’s largest producers, is facing its most significant wave of anti-government protests in years, adding to uncertainty around global energy supply.

  • Brunello Cucinelli Delivers Robust FY2025 Sales Growth

    Brunello Cucinelli Delivers Robust FY2025 Sales Growth

    Brunello Cucinelli (BIT:BC) reported a solid performance for fiscal year 2025, with sales rising 11.5% at constant currency, coming in at the midpoint of its recently increased guidance range of 11% to 12%.

    The Italian luxury group generated revenues of €1.408 billion, representing a 10% increase on a reported basis and broadly in line with market expectations. The result reflects resilient demand for the brand despite a more challenging operating environment for the global luxury sector.

    In the fourth quarter, sales advanced 11.9% at constant currency, slightly below the latest guidance that had pointed to growth broadly matching the third quarter’s 12.5% increase. Even so, the performance was viewed as resilient given tougher year-on-year comparisons, particularly in the retail channel, where comparables were around 500 basis points more demanding.

    Retail revenue grew 14.5% at constant currency in the fourth quarter, marginally under the company’s guidance of approximately 16% growth. Wholesale activity, meanwhile, slowed in the second half of 2025, with constant-currency growth of 6% compared with 9% for the full year. This deceleration was most evident in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting shipment timing that had favoured the third quarter.

  • FTSE 100 Holds Steady, Sterling Flat Ahead of Bailey Remarks; Rentokil Names New CEO

    FTSE 100 Holds Steady, Sterling Flat Ahead of Bailey Remarks; Rentokil Names New CEO

    UK equities were largely unchanged in early trading on Tuesday, while the pound held steady as investors awaited comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later in the day. Corporate updates from Whitbread, PageGroup and the announcement of a new chief executive at Rentokil were also in focus.

    By 0832 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.03%, while sterling edged 0.01% higher against the dollar to 1.34. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%.

    Bank of England speakers in focus

    Markets are closely watching Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech on Tuesday morning for clues on the outlook for UK monetary policy, particularly given divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee and a light economic data calendar.

    This week’s only major UK data release is Thursday’s GDP report, which could influence sentiment. The next key releases on jobs and inflation are due on January 20–21. Two additional MPC members, Alan Taylor and Dave Ramsden—both of whom voted for a rate cut at the December meeting—are scheduled to speak on Wednesday.

    ING highlights EUR/GBP valuation

    ING said the EUR/GBP exchange rate has settled below 0.870, a level its models suggest is moderately undervalued in the near term. The bank continues to expect the Bank of England to cut rates in March, a more dovish view than current market pricing, which implies a smaller 10 basis point move. ING said this outlook supports expectations for a gradual recovery in EUR/GBP over coming months.

    Rentokil appoints new CEO

    Rentokil Initial PLC (LSE:RTO) announced the appointment of Mike Duffy as its new Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, effective 16 March 2026. Duffy will join as CEO Designate on 16 February, succeeding Andy Ransom, who will step down after several years in the role. Ransom will remain involved through to the company’s AGM on 7 May 2026 to support the transition.

    FTSE 100 earnings and updates

    PageGroup PLC (LSE:PAGE) reported a 4.6% decline in fourth-quarter gross profit, as weaker conditions in Europe and the UK offset growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific. Quarterly gross profit fell to £190.7 million from £200.1 million a year earlier.

    Trustpilot Group PLC (LSE:TRST) said it expects full-year 2025 bookings to rise 18% on a constant-currency basis to $291 million, up from $239 million in 2024. Annual recurring revenue is forecast at $296 million, while revenue is expected to increase to $261 million.

    Whitbread PLC (LSE:WTB) posted a 2% increase in third-quarter group sales to £781 million, supported by stronger accommodation revenue in both the UK and Germany.

    Games Workshop Group PLC (LSE:GAW) delivered a record half-year performance, with core revenue up 17.3% to £316.1 million for the 26 weeks to 30 November 2025. Profit before tax rose to £140.8 million, while earnings per share increased to 319.9p.

    Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) reported total home completions of 11,905 in 2025, up 12% year on year and ahead of expectations. Private completions rose 8%, while partnership completions declined amid softer bulk and build-to-rent demand late in the year.

    THG Holdings PLC (LSE:THG) recorded its strongest quarterly revenue growth since 2021 in the fourth quarter of 2025, with constant-currency sales up 7.0%. Second-half revenue increased 6.7%, around 14% above the top end of prior guidance.

    Gamma Communications PLC (LSE:GAMA) said trading for the year ended 31 December 2025 is expected to be in line with market forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share within consensus ranges.

    Hunting PLC (LSE:HTG) reported a 7% year-on-year increase in full-year 2025 EBITDA to around $135 million, with margins improving to 13%. The group ended the year with an order book of approximately $350 million.

  • The Gym Group Lifts Outlook, Steps Up Rollout Plans and Announces Share Buyback

    The Gym Group Lifts Outlook, Steps Up Rollout Plans and Announces Share Buyback

    The Gym Group (LSE:GYM) said on Tuesday that it has upgraded its financial guidance, unveiled plans to accelerate its site rollout and launched a new share buyback programme, reflecting continued strong trading momentum.

    In a trading update, the low-cost fitness operator reported an 8% increase in revenue to £245 million for the 2025 financial year, in line with market expectations. Like-for-like revenue growth came in at 3%, consistent with its prior guidance. Membership numbers rose 4% year on year to 945,000, while average revenue per member per month increased by 4% to £21.60.

    The group opened 16 new gyms during the year, at the upper end of its 14–16 site guidance, taking its total estate to 260 locations. Net debt on a pre-IFRS-16 basis reduced by £2 million to £59 million, supported by solid cash generation.

    On the back of strong performance from both mature and newly opened gyms, The Gym Group said it now expects FY25 EBITDA less normalised rent to be “slightly above the top end of the consensus range” of £52.5 million to £54.9 million, equating to around 3% above current market consensus of £53.1 million.

    Looking ahead to 2026, the company said it expects to sustain this momentum and forecasts EBITDA less normalised rent to again exceed the upper end of the consensus range of £55.2 million to £59.3 million, around 4% above the current consensus of £57 million.

    Strategically, The Gym Group plans to significantly accelerate its expansion programme, targeting around 75 new sites over the next three years, funded entirely from free cash flow. Around 20 new gym openings are planned for FY26 alone.

    In addition, the company announced a £10 million share buyback programme, which it expects to complete by the end of the 2026 financial year.

  • Whitbread Q3 Sales Climb 2% as Accommodation Demand Strengthens in the UK and Germany

    Whitbread Q3 Sales Climb 2% as Accommodation Demand Strengthens in the UK and Germany

    Whitbread Plc (LSE:WTB) reported a 2% increase in group sales for the third quarter on Tuesday, driven by stronger accommodation demand across both the UK and Germany.

    Total group revenue reached £781 million for the quarter, up on the same period last year. The UK-based hospitality group said trading improved across its Premier Inn UK and Premier Inn Germany businesses, while UK food and beverage sales declined.

    In the UK, accommodation revenue rose 2%, supported by a 3% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR). Whitbread said it continued to command a RevPAR premium relative to the midscale and economy hotel market. By contrast, UK food and beverage sales fell 4%, which the company linked to changes under its Accelerating Growth Plan, including the conversion of some lower-return restaurant formats into higher-return concepts.

    Germany delivered a particularly strong performance, with accommodation sales increasing 12% in local currency terms, or 16% in sterling. Estate-wide RevPAR rose 7% to €76, while RevPAR at more established sites increased to €86. Whitbread said this outperformed the broader midscale and economy market in Germany.

    Looking at more recent trading, Whitbread said that in the six weeks to 8 January 2026, UK accommodation sales and RevPAR were both up 4%. In Germany, accommodation sales grew 11% over the same period, with RevPAR rising 5% to €56.

    Chief executive Dominic Paul said the group maintained strong momentum during the quarter. “We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, with positive momentum,” he said in a statement.

    The company also upgraded its expected cost efficiencies for the 2026 financial year, now forecasting savings of £75 million to £80 million across labour, technology and procurement, compared with previous guidance of £65 million to £70 million.

    Following the UK Budget, Whitbread updated its outlook for fiscal 2027, estimating the impact of proposed business rates changes at around £35 million, lower than its earlier £40 million to £50 million estimate. Gross UK cost inflation is expected to be between 6.5% and 7.5%, with net UK cost inflation forecast at 3% to 4% after accelerated efficiency measures.

    During the quarter, Whitbread completed sale-and-leaseback transactions worth £89 million and said it remains on track to finish its previously announced share buyback programme by April 2026, having repurchased 7.7 million shares to date.

  • Rentokil Initial Appoints Mike Duffy as Chief Executive as Andy Ransom Steps Down

    Rentokil Initial Appoints Mike Duffy as Chief Executive as Andy Ransom Steps Down

    Rentokil Initial Plc (LSE:RTO) said on Tuesday that it has appointed U.S.-based executive Mike Duffy as its new chief executive, effective 16 March, succeeding Andy Ransom, who will step down after more than 18 years with the group.

    Duffy will join Rentokil Initial as CEO Designate on 16 February and will be based in North America. Ransom will continue to support the handover process through to the company’s annual general meeting on 7 May to ensure an orderly transition.

    Duffy brings more than 25 years of leadership experience across both B2B and B2C sectors. He is currently chief executive of OnTrac, a U.S. logistics group focused on residential last-mile delivery. Prior to that, he served as CEO of FleetPride, where he oversaw a network of more than 350 locations across North America. Both businesses are owned by American Securities LLC.

    “It is an honour to be appointed as Chief Executive of Rentokil Initial, a company with an impressive global footprint and a leading position in the North American market,” Duffy said in a statement.

    Chair Richard Solomons said Duffy “has a proven track record of delivering profitable growth and transforming businesses and has the right skills and capabilities to enable Rentokil Initial to realise its full potential over the coming years.”

  • Grafton Group Delivers 2025 Results in Line With Forecasts, Flags Cautious Recovery Outlook

    Grafton Group Delivers 2025 Results in Line With Forecasts, Flags Cautious Recovery Outlook

    Grafton Group PLC (LSE:GFTU) on Tuesday reported full-year 2025 revenue of £2.52 billion, representing a 10.4% increase year on year and broadly matching analyst expectations of £2.517 billion. Shares edged 0.5% lower following the update.

    Average daily like-for-like revenue rose 1.7% over the full year, although momentum eased towards the end of the period, with growth flattening during the final two months of 2025 as trading conditions softened in the second half. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be broadly in line with market consensus of around £181.9 million, despite ongoing macroeconomic pressure in several end markets.

    Trading performance diverged across the group’s regions. The Island of Ireland and Iberia delivered the strongest outcomes, with full-year like-for-like revenue growth of 3.5% and 6.1% respectively. In contrast, Great Britain recorded modest growth of just 0.4%, while Northern Europe saw a 0.5% decline, with both regions experiencing weaker conditions towards the end of the year.

    “Despite continuing headwinds in some of our markets, the Group delivered a solid performance in Q4 and an outcome in line with expectations for the full year,” said Eric Born, Chief Executive Officer of Grafton Group plc. “It reflects the strong market positions, resilience and agility of our operations across our geographies.”

    Looking ahead, the group struck a cautious tone on 2026, noting that “meaningful recovery in Great Britain and Northern Europe did not materialise in 2025, and the timing of any improvement in these two segments in the year ahead remains uncertain.” Management said it will continue to prioritise efficiency initiatives and cost discipline.

    Grafton also outlined organisational updates, including the appointment of Mario Ballarín as chief executive for Iberia from January 2026 to support growth in the region, alongside a simplified reporting structure organised around four geographic operating segments aligned with the group’s strategic priorities.

  • Rainbow Rare Earths Launches Final Pilot Programme at Phalaborwa as REE Market Strengthens

    Rainbow Rare Earths Launches Final Pilot Programme at Phalaborwa as REE Market Strengthens

    Rainbow Rare Earths (LSE:RBW) has commissioned and begun operating a pilot plant in Johannesburg, marking the final phase of process test work for its Phalaborwa rare earths project in South Africa. The project is targeting a first-of-its-kind commercial operation to recover rare earth elements from phosphogypsum waste, rather than traditional hard rock mining.

    The large-scale pilot programme is scheduled to run through the first half of 2026 and will test an optimised processing flowsheet. This includes an enhanced leach circuit alongside continuous ion exchange and impurity removal, producing material for downstream solvent extraction trials. The work is designed to finalise product specifications for high-purity separated NdPr oxide and SEG+ products, while also generating the detailed technical and cost data required to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study and support third-party project financing.

    Recent flowsheet improvements, such as shorter leach times, fewer processing stages and reduced equipment intensity, are expected to translate into lower capital and operating costs. These changes are intended to reinforce Phalaborwa’s positioning at the lower end of the global cost curve, at a time when rare earth prices are recovering and Western governments are increasingly focused on diversifying supply chains in response to Chinese export controls.

    George Bennett, CEO, commented:
    “This new piloting operation is the final phase of process test work for Phalaborwa, as it will demonstrate the project flowsheet that has been considerably updated over the past 18 months via a number of key optimisations. These efficiencies further reinforce the project’s position at the bottom of the industry cost curve to deliver high-purity (>99.5%) separated NdPr oxide and SEG+ products. The pilot operations are important to the finalisation of the DFS this year and ensure the long-term success of the Phalaborwa project.

    We are very proud of our technical team, which has commissioned this pilot plant quickly and efficiently. We are looking forward to showing the operation to investors and other market participants at the two site visits in early February prior to the Mining Indaba conference.

    The outlook for the REE market remains strong going into 2026, with pricing for the light REE NdPr having effectively doubled since the lows of 2025 to over US$100/kg, following the major price rises we have seen already for the medium and heavy REE that are subject to Chinese export controls. Phalaborwa is a unique project in that it will produce the full range of economically and strategically important REE, which is why it has been backed by the US International Development Finance Corporation as a key contributor to supply chain resilience.”

    More about Rainbow Rare Earths

    Rainbow Rare Earths is a rare earth elements developer focused on establishing an independent and ethical supply chain for materials critical to the global energy transition. The company is advancing the commercial recovery of rare earths from phosphogypsum, a by-product of phosphoric acid production, offering the potential for faster and lower-cost development than conventional mining. Its principal projects are Phalaborwa in South Africa and Uberaba in Brazil, targeting high-value rare earth oxides including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence and emerging technologies.

  • Connecting Human Capital to Digital Capital: Inside XCE’s Groundbreaking Bitcoin Bond

    Connecting Human Capital to Digital Capital: Inside XCE’s Groundbreaking Bitcoin Bond

    In a move that signals a new era for corporate treasury management, Connecting Excellence Group (AQSE:XCE) has launched its 2026 XCE BTC Bond programme, a first-of-its-kind Bitcoin-denominated convertible bond.

    Recently appearing on The Watchlist, CEO Scott Ellam detailed how the company is blending a decade of executive recruitment expertise with a sophisticated Bitcoin treasury strategy to create what he calls a “talent attraction vehicle” for the digital age.

    A Recruitment Powerhouse with a Bitcoin Engine

    At its core, XCE – Connecting Excellence Group is the parent company of Spencer Riley, an international executive recruitment firm that has spent the last 10 years placing senior leaders around the world in traditional sectors like professional services, life sciences, logistics, and engineering.

    While the recruitment business is “non-correlated” with the bitcoin market, Ellam explains that Bitcoin is the engine under the hood. Four years ago, the company began accumulating a private Bitcoin balance sheet; following its successful IPO on the Aquis Growth Market in December 2025, that strategy has now gone public.

    “Our aim is to increase Bitcoin per share and increase operating revenues… using the Bitcoin balance sheet to allow the group to attract revenue generating recruiters using performance-based share options.” — Scott Ellam, CEO


    The XCE BTC Bond: How It Works

    Designed by a team of industry veterans—including Vijay Selvam (ex-Goldman Sachs) and Richard Byworth (ex-Nomura)—the bond is unique because it is truly denominated and settled in Bitcoin rather than fiat currency.

    Key Features of the Bond:

    • Zero-Coupon Structure: The bonds carry 0% interest, sold at a premium to benefit existing shareholders.
    • Downside Protection: Bondholders can redeem in Bitcoin at maturity (minus a 2% fee), protecting their initial capital.
    • Equity Upside: The bonds convert into XCE shares only when the company’s share price outperforms Bitcoin.
    • Strategic Backing: The program has already attracted high-profile investors, including Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and BSTR the ~35,000BTC US SPAC intending to float via the Nasdaq this year and a legendary figure in the Bitcoin space.

    Protecting the Shareholder: The Anti-Dilution Guarantee

    A common concern with convertible bonds is share dilution. However, Ellam emphasizes that the XCE BTC Bond is structured specifically to be accretive.

    The conversion price is set at a premium (typically 130% of the share price at issuance) and includes a “BTC price differentiator” to ensure the conversion price fluctuates with the BTC price. This ensures that if conversion occurs, the amount of Bitcoin held per outstanding share actually increases.

    “There are no circumstances in which they would convert and not increase Bitcoin per share for our shareholders,” Ellam noted during the interview.


    Looking Ahead: A “Version 2.0” Treasury Company

    By integrating Bitcoin into its professional services model, XCE isn’t just betting on a digital asset; it’s building a competitive moat. The company intends to disrupt international executive search and use its Bitcoin-backed equity to:

    1. Attract Top Talent: Offering high-performing recruiters share options backed by a hard asset.
    2. Strategic Acquisitions: Using its public status and Bitcoin reserves to acquire competing firms with minimal cash outlay.
    3. Global Expansion: Scaling its specialized recruitment divisions, including a new arm dedicated to the Bitcoin and Digital Assets sector.

    As institutional interest in Bitcoin reaches new heights in 2026, Connecting Excellence Group is positioning itself as a pioneer—proving that even traditional industries can thrive by connecting human capital to digital capital.

  • Games Workshop Posts Record Half-Year as Core Trading Strength Offsets Licensing Dip

    Games Workshop Posts Record Half-Year as Core Trading Strength Offsets Licensing Dip

    Games Workshop (LSE:GAW) delivered record results for the 26 weeks to 30 November 2025, with total revenue increasing to £332.1m from £299.5m a year earlier and operating profit rising to £140.4m from £126.1m. The performance was driven by strong core sales across all 23 core countries and all three main sales channels, more than compensating for a sharp decline in licensing revenue during the period.

    Profit before tax advanced to £140.8m, while earnings per share improved to 319.9p. Strong cash generation enabled the group to continue funding dividends while investing further in its operational footprint, including expanded UK manufacturing capacity, upgrades to warehousing infrastructure and early-stage planning for a new Warhammer World flagship location in North America.

    Management said the business has so far absorbed around £6m of additional US tariff costs through a combination of efficiency improvements, modest price increases and lower stock write-offs. Alongside this, Games Workshop continues to build out its licensing pipeline, with a growing slate of video game titles and screen projects in development, including live-action and animated collaborations with Amazon MGM Studios. The company also reiterated its cautious approach to artificial intelligence, emphasising the protection of its intellectual property and the importance of human-led creative processes.

    Overall, the outlook is underpinned by strong financial performance, resilient core demand and positive corporate developments, although valuation remains elevated and technical indicators suggest the shares may be approaching overbought levels.

    More about Games Workshop Group PLC

    Games Workshop Group PLC is a UK-based manufacturer and retailer of fantasy miniatures and related products, best known for its Warhammer brand. The group sells globally through trade, retail and online channels and complements its core tabletop gaming business by licensing its intellectual property into video games and media projects, serving hobbyists and wider pop-culture audiences worldwide.