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Castings PLC (LSE:CGS) reported a modest drop in revenue for the six months ended September 2025 but delivered higher profit before tax, in line with management’s expectations. The company successfully commissioned a new foundry production line, increasing its manufacturing capacity and strengthening its position to pursue growth in new markets. While demand from the heavy truck segment softened, Castings PLC continues to maintain a resilient balance sheet and is well-positioned to leverage opportunities across the US and other emerging sectors.

Financially, the group remains stable, with profit growth underscoring operational efficiency despite softer sales. Technical indicators point to short-term bearish sentiment, and recent corporate developments highlight ongoing pressures in demand and margins. Nevertheless, the company’s appealing valuation and strong dividend yield continue to offer potential value for investors.

More about Castings

Castings PLC is a UK-based manufacturer specializing in iron castings and machined components. The heavy truck sector accounts for roughly 75% of its turnover, though the company is diversifying into new markets such as wind energy, electric vehicle components, and infrastructure-related projects.

The week kicked off on an upbeat note for the markets. 

What initially appeared to be the start of a correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq barely took off. Buoyed by hopes of a quick end to the record US government shutdown and Trump’s tweet hinting at “dividends” for Americans financed by trade tariffs, sentiment had already returned to risk-on by Monday.

But how solid are these drivers in the long term?

Starting with Trump’s proposal of an equivalent to helicopter money, “saying it doesn’t mean doing it.” Some suggest it may have been aimed more at boosting market confidence — and perhaps bolstering his own declining popularity — than signaling real action. Optimism based purely on expectations could be fleeting.

Given the fact that tariffs are basically an import tax, borne mainly by U.S. companies and consumers, what Trump called a “dividend” is more like government-backed cashback. The inflationary pressures that come with tariffs will not disappear.  Markets would gain much more confidence if tariffs were actually eliminated. 

As for the shutdown, Democrats caved, and the Senate passed a bill to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. The bill, pending House approval, would fund the government through January 30, 2026, reinstate furloughed employees, and guarantee back pay. Most of this is likely already priced in by the market.

So, have the markets peaked?

That depends on how circumstances evolve. Optimism is also riding on hopes for a more dovish Fed amid a cooling labor market. In October, U.S. companies cut 153,000 jobs, almost triple last year’s number. Tech and logistics layoffs pushed total job losses in 2025 past one million, the highest since the pandemic.

If Fed members signal in upcoming speeches that a larger rate cut may be necessary at the December meeting, it could boost not only gold prices but also overall market sentiment. On the other hand, if they insist that more data is needed before taking action, risk appetite could cool, punishing risky assets.

U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday, as investors took a breather following a strong rally in technology names and growing optimism that Washington is close to ending the nation’s longest-ever government shutdown.

At 09:35 ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained around 80 points (0.2%), while the S&P 500 slipped 10 points (0.2%) and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 102 points (0.4%).

Lawmakers Move to End the Shutdown

The U.S. Senate passed a spending bill late Monday to reopen the federal government, sending it to the House of Representatives for a vote after eight Democrats joined Republicans to break the deadlock.

The measure is expected to clear the House and head to President Donald Trump for final approval, officially ending the historic 41-day shutdown, which has disrupted key sectors and is likely to have weighed on fourth-quarter GDP.

“The shutdown resolution (even though the government won’t actually reopen for several more days) is clearly a positive, and many feel it gives a bright green light for the much-anticipated year-end rally to finally commence,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

The news helped Wall Street extend its rebound on Monday, led by sharp gains in artificial intelligence heavyweights Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR).

UBS Sees the S&P 500 Reaching 7,500 in 2026

With most of the third-quarter earnings season complete, investor attention is shifting toward 2026 growth forecasts.

UBS expects the S&P 500 to climb to 7,500 by the end of next year, up from the current level near 5,830, fueled by “around 14% earnings growth,” nearly half of which should come from technology stocks.

In a research note Monday, UBS strategists said the global economy “is poised to accelerate in 2026” as confidence improves and fiscal stimulus measures take hold.

Still, they cautioned that major economies will have to “navigate a soft patch, with tariffs still feeding through to prices and exports” in the near term.

UBS forecasts roughly 10% market returns in 2026, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than higher valuations.

Corporate Movers: CoreWeave, Paramount, Rocket Lab, TheRealReal

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell after revealing a delay at a third-party data center partner, overshadowing otherwise strong quarterly results. The Nvidia-backed AI cloud firm has recently secured multibillion-dollar deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) to expand its reach in the booming AI infrastructure market.

Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) rose after the entertainment group announced plans to cut an additional $1 billion in costs, adding to the $2 billion in savings outlined following its August merger.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) gained after reporting a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss, while TheRealReal (NASDAQ:REAL) jumped 15% after raising its full-year revenue guidance and posting better-than-expected Q3 sales.

Oil Prices Extend Gains

Oil prices edged higher as traders reacted to progress in ending the shutdown, which could boost demand expectations.

Brent crude climbed 1.1% to $64.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced 1.2% to $60.85 a barrel.

However, concerns about potential oversupply linger. OPEC+ recently agreed to raise production targets by 137,000 barrels per day for December, matching October and November levels, before pausing increases in early 2026.

Oil prices declined in Asian trading on Tuesday, pressured by persistent oversupply worries that overshadowed both optimism about a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty surrounding new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil.

By 07:17 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.79 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $59.86. Both benchmarks had added roughly 40 cents in the previous session.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history could end this week after the Senate passed a funding compromise. The measure now heads to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed a desire to approve it by Wednesday.

Although the prospect of the government reopening has broadly lifted market sentiment, crude prices remain capped by growing concerns over global supply gluts.

“As OPEC production increases grind on, global oil balances are acquiring an increasingly bearish hue on the supply side of the ledger with demand still trending lower in conjunction with a slowed economic growth path among major oil-consuming countries,” analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to raise December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same pace as in October and November, while also deciding to pause production hikes during the first quarter of next year.

The sustained rise in OPEC output has reinforced a bearish tone among investors, though attention remains fixed on U.S. sanctions against Russian energy firms. ANZ analysts noted that the latest measures under President Donald Trump’s administration could further disrupt markets.

Sources told Reuters that Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field and that Bulgaria was preparing to seize the company’s Burgas refinery, marking the most significant fallout yet from sanctions imposed last month.

Meanwhile, analysts reported that oil stored on ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks, as tighter Western sanctions reduced exports to China and India, while import quota limits curbed Chinese demand. Some refiners in both countries have shifted toward Middle Eastern and alternative suppliers.

One potential challenge to oil’s bearish outlook “is the extent to which China will continue to push Russian supplies into strategic stockpiles and whether India will succumb to Trump’s suggestions that the country defer further purchases from Russia,” Ritterbusch added.

Gold prices advanced in Asian trading on Tuesday, climbing to their highest levels in nearly three weeks as investors sought safety amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, interest rates, and the lingering economic effects of the government shutdown. The recent strength of the dollar failed to dent demand for the precious metal, while signs of progress toward ending the shutdown did little to curb buying interest.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,142.14 per ounce, while December gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,148.92 per ounce by 23:57 ET (04:57 GMT).

Gold Holds Strong Despite Rising Risk Appetite

Investors continued to favor gold even as risk sentiment improved slightly following progress in Washington, where lawmakers moved closer to resolving the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, now in its 41st day. The U.S. Senate approved a bill late Monday to restore federal funding, which will next be considered by the House of Representatives, where Republicans have signaled support.

The yellow metal has sharply rebounded above the key $4,000 per ounce mark, largely shrugging off pressure from a stronger U.S. currency. Analysts said the resilience of bullion reflects persistent caution about the broader economic and policy outlook.

Other precious metals followed gold higher: spot platinum added 0.7% to $1,587.48 per ounce, while spot silver climbed 0.9% to $50.97 per ounce.

Trade and Economic Jitters Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Analysts at ANZ said gold’s renewed strength was driven by safe-haven buying amid growing uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs and the overall economic landscape. They pointed to recent developments in Washington, where the Supreme Court questioned the Trump administration’s use of an emergency act to enforce its tariff program — a move that could be ruled unconstitutional.

Trump warned on Monday evening that overturning his tariffs could cost the government more than $2 trillion in refunded duties.

“Whether or not the court rules Trump wrongly imposed tariffs by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, it is likely that there are other laws he can draw on if needed. In the meantime, the market is likely to face months of uncertainty with a ruling not expected before the end of the year,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Economic data releases have been disrupted by the shutdown, leaving investors with limited visibility on the U.S. outlook. Traders have also been paring back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December, adding to the cautious tone in global markets.

U.S. stock futures traded slightly lower on Tuesday, as investors monitored developments in Washington after the U.S. Senate approved a bill to end the record-long federal government shutdown. Meanwhile, AI cloud provider CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) lowered its full-year revenue forecast, and SoftBank Group (USOTC:SFTBY) reported quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations.

Futures Weaken as Markets Eye Shutdown Resolution

U.S. stock futures hovered just below the flatline early Tuesday, with traders weighing the potential implications of the Senate’s vote to reopen the government.

By 02:42 ET, Dow futures were little changed, S&P 500 futures slipped 7 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 42 points (0.2%).

Major Wall Street indices closed higher on Monday, supported by optimism that lawmakers were nearing an agreement to end the historic government shutdown.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that sentiment around the artificial intelligence sector remains strong, citing “bullish” expectations for upcoming results from major tech players, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Still, uncertainty surrounds the path of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, after one central bank official signaled on Monday that the scope for further reductions “is now limited.”

Senate Passes Bill to End Longest U.S. Government Shutdown

The U.S. Senate voted to send a spending bill to the House of Representatives, potentially ending the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, after eight Democrats crossed party lines to support the measure.

Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress, are expected to continue backing the bill, which has received approval from the Trump administration.

The legislation will extend government funding through January 30, allocate a full year’s funding for the Agriculture Department, the legislative branch, and military construction, and ensure that laid-off federal workers are reinstated.

Some Democrats criticized members of their own party who supported the measure, arguing that any deal should include guarantees to lift deadlines that could impact healthcare coverage for millions of Americans. GOP leaders have pledged to hold a vote on the issue by mid-December.

Democrats have also accused President Donald Trump of using the shutdown to “deny food assistance and disrupt air travel” as a means of forcing negotiations, while administration officials defended the move as part of efforts to “cut spending and maintain aviation safety.”

CoreWeave Cuts Revenue Guidance Amid Data Center Delays

Shares of CoreWeave fell in extended trading after the Nvidia-backed AI cloud services firm reported a delay with a third-party data center partner, prompting a downward revision to its revenue forecast.

The company now expects fiscal 2025 revenue between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, down from prior guidance of $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had projected $5.29 billion, according to Reuters.

Despite the guidance cut, CoreWeave reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion, reflecting robust demand for AI cloud infrastructure. Adjusted operating income margin slipped to 16% from 21% a year earlier.

CFO Nitin Agrawal said the company plans to increase capital spending to strengthen its AI infrastructure, expecting to invest $12–14 billion in 2025.

“We remain focused on scaling our operations to meet accelerating demand,” Agrawal said, emphasizing the company’s continued partnership with OpenAI and Meta Platforms.

SoftBank Posts Strong Profit, Sells Nvidia Stake

SoftBank Group Corp. reported a sharply higher-than-expected fiscal second-quarter profit, driven by investment gains in its Vision Funds and continued exposure to artificial intelligence.

The Japanese conglomerate posted net profit attributable to shareholders of ¥2.502 trillion ($16.3 billion) for the July–September quarter, far exceeding Bloomberg estimates of ¥418.23 billion and more than doubling last year’s ¥1.179 trillion result.

SoftBank confirmed it sold its entire Nvidia stake (32.1 million shares) in October for $5.83 billion, though the sale was not reflected in its Q2 earnings and the company did not specify a reason for the divestment.

China Reportedly Plans Rare Earth Restrictions on U.S. Military

According to the Wall Street Journal, China is preparing to introduce a “validated end-user” system to restrict rare earth exports to companies tied to the U.S. military, while expediting shipments to civilian customers.

The plan aligns with President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge to President Donald Trump to resume rare earth exports to the U.S., though the new controls could make sourcing these materials more difficult for American firms serving both defense and civilian clients.

Rare earth elements are essential in electronics and defense manufacturing, and China, the world’s largest producer, continues to leverage its dominance in this sector amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States.

The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher on Tuesday following progress toward ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, while the British pound slipped after soft wage growth data reinforced expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next month.

At 04:10 ET (09:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 99.580.

Dollar finds modest support amid government funding progress
The dollar posted small gains after the U.S. Senate passed a bill late Tuesday to restore government funding and bring the prolonged shutdown to a close. The legislation now moves to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson said he hopes to pass it as early as Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for approval.

“The government reopening trade has taken the shape of textbook risk-on moves in FX. The most equity-sensitive currencies are following gains across stock markets (AUD and NZD, leading) and the yen is under pressure,” said analysis at ING, in a note.

“On a broad level, the impact on the dollar has so far been neutral, which is in line with the reaction to the beginning of the shutdown in October.”

A resolution to the shutdown would also allow the U.S. government to resume publishing key economic reports, providing fresh insights into the state of the world’s largest economy. Last week, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, reinforcing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Sterling falls as U.K. wage growth eases

In Europe, GBP/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.3124 after data showed the U.K. labor market cooled more than expected in the third quarter. Unemployment rose to 5.0% from 4.8%, the highest since February 2021, while wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 4.6% in the three months to September from 4.7% previously.

“These aren’t screamingly dovish figures, but they do endorse to some extent the ongoing dovish repricing of Bank of England rate expectations,” said ING. “Both inflation and jobs data are starting to point down, and we think the Autumn Budget’s tax hikes will provide the final argument for a cut in December.”

The euro was little changed, with EUR/USD steady at 1.1556, ahead of the ZEW economic sentiment release later in the day.

“We continue to look at 1.150 as a floor and see room for stabilisation close to 1.160 based on our short-term valuation indicators, but the probability of a major revamp in depressed EUR/USD volatility remains low this week,” said ING.

Yen at nine-month low amid risk-on sentiment

In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.1% higher at 154.30, with the yen hovering near a nine-month low as risk appetite improved on optimism over the U.S. funding deal. The currency also softened after Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged policymakers to proceed cautiously with future interest rate increases.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged up to 7.1207, with the yuan remaining under pressure amid persistent worries about China’s slowing economy. Slightly better-than-expected October inflation data did little to bolster sentiment.

The Australian dollar also weakened, with AUD/USD slipping 0.2% to 0.6524, giving back some of its recent gains following the U.S. Senate’s breakthrough vote on Sunday.

European equities advanced on Tuesday, extending the week’s upbeat momentum as investors grew confident that the longest U.S. government shutdown on record was nearing its end.

By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 1%. The positive session followed Monday’s broad rally, when all three indices posted gains of more than 1% on renewed optimism about a U.S. funding deal.

U.S. Senate Approves Funding Bill

Late Monday, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the historic shutdown. The bill passed 60–40 with support from nearly all Republicans and several Democrats. It will now move to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson indicated he aims to pass it by Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for approval.

The anticipated reopening of the U.S. government has boosted investor sentiment globally. The shutdown had caused nationwide disruptions, particularly in sectors like air travel, and had begun to weigh on confidence in the U.S. economy — the key engine of global growth.

U.K. Labour Data Supports Rate-Cut Expectations

In the UK, new labour market data released Tuesday showed that unemployment rose while wage growth softened, adding weight to expectations of a potential Bank of England interest rate cut next month.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in the three months to September, up from 4.8% in the previous period. Wage growth excluding bonuses eased slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.

The central bank, which held rates steady at 4% last week, has signaled growing openness to policy easing if domestic inflation pressures continue to subside.

Corporate Highlights: Vodafone, Munich Re, SoftBank

In corporate news, Vodafone Group (LSE:VOD) raised its full-year outlook after reporting higher first-half revenue and earnings, driven by strong performance in the UK, Türkiye, and Africa, alongside the completion of its merger with Three UK.

German reinsurer Munich Re (TG:A289EQ) reported a third-quarter profit of €2 billion, boosted by lower major-loss costs in its property-casualty reinsurance segment. The result brought its nine-month profit to €5.2 billion, underscoring strong profitability in a stable reinsurance market.

Meanwhile, SoftBank (USOTC:SFTBF) delivered a stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter profit, benefiting from sizable gains tied to its artificial intelligence investments. The results highlight the Japanese tech giant’s ongoing recovery following prior years of volatility in its Vision Fund portfolio.

Oil Prices Edge Lower

Crude prices slipped on Tuesday, reversing modest gains from the prior session amid renewed concerns about a potential supply glut.

Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $63.83 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 0.5% to $59.86. Both benchmarks had advanced slightly on Monday as optimism grew over the U.S. shutdown resolution, though traders remain cautious about rising output.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December production targets by 137,000 barrels per day, maintaining the pace set for October and November, while planning a pause in output hikes during the first quarter of next year.

Overall, optimism about the U.S. funding deal and stabilizing European data helped lift market sentiment, though inflation pressures and oil market uncertainty continue to temper risk appetite.

Vodafone Group Plc (LSE:VOD) raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday following a stronger-than-expected first-half performance for fiscal 2026, driven by growth in the UK, Türkiye, and Africa, along with the successful completion of its merger with Three UK.

Total revenue rose 7.3% year-on-year to €19.6 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2025, compared with €18.3 billion a year earlier. Service revenue increased 8.1% to €16.3 billion on a reported basis (up 5.7% organically), while adjusted EBITDAaL climbed 5.9% to €5.7 billion. Operating profit fell 9.2% to €2.2 billion, reflecting higher depreciation and amortization following the consolidation of Three UK.

Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle said: “Based on our stronger performance, we are now expecting to deliver at the upper end of our guidance range for both profit and cash flow, and as our anticipated multi-year growth trajectory is now under way.”

Vodafone now expects adjusted EBITDAaL between €13.3 billion and €13.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow between €2.4 billion and €2.6 billion for the full year. The company also introduced a new dividend policy, planning to raise its FY26 dividend per share by 2.5%, with an interim dividend of 2.25 eurocents (ex-dividend November 20, payable February 7, 2026).

Regional performance was led by robust growth in multiple markets:

• Germany, accounting for one-third of group service revenue, returned to growth in Q2 with a 0.5% rise in service revenue.
• UK service revenue increased 1.2% organically, while total revenue surged 27.9% to €4.4 billion following the merger with Three UK.
• Africa delivered 13.5% organic service revenue growth in Q2, supported by strong data and mobile financial service demand.
• Türkiye posted standout growth, with service revenue up 55.6% organically and total revenue up 15.1% to €1.6 billion.

By segment, adjusted EBITDAaL rose 11% to €1.3 billion in Africa (margin 34.1%), 58% in Türkiye to €485 million, and 25% in the UK to €884 million. In contrast, Germany’s EBITDAaL declined 4.3% to €2.2 billion due to lower TV revenue and prior-year investments.

Cash flow from operating activities fell 9.8% to €5.1 billion, while adjusted free cash flow showed an outflow of €583 million, improving from the prior year. Net debt increased to €25.9 billion from €22.4 billion at March 31, reflecting merger-related costs, €1 billion in share buybacks, and €0.6 billion in dividends.

Since May 2023, Vodafone has executed €3 billion in share buybacks and launched a €500 million tranche concurrent with its results. Strategic progress also included the acquisition of Telekom Romania Mobile Communications S.A. for €30 million and an agreement to acquire German cloud and cybersecurity firm Skaylink GmbH for €175 million.

Commenting on the company’s performance, Della Valle added: “Following the progress of our transformation, Vodafone has built broad-based momentum. Whilst we have more to do, we delivered good strategic progress in the half year.”

More about Vodafone Group Plc

Vodafone Group Plc is a global telecommunications company headquartered in the UK, operating mobile and fixed networks across Europe and Africa. The company provides mobile, broadband, and digital financial services to over 300 million customers worldwide. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and part of the FTSE 100, Vodafone continues to focus on operational simplification, 5G expansion, and digital transformation to drive long-term shareholder value.

Ashmore Group plc (LSE:ASHM) shares fell around 3% on Monday after Deutsche Bank downgraded the emerging markets asset manager to Sell from Hold, citing concerns over future net inflows and elevated valuation levels.

Deutsche Bank analysts expressed doubts about consensus expectations for a sustained recovery in net inflows, given the current market environment and outlook for emerging markets. The bank now projects net outflows of $0.5 billion for fiscal year 2026 — equivalent to 1% of opening assets under management (AuM) — compared with consensus forecasts of $0.8 billion in net inflows (2%). The divergence widens for fiscal 2027, where Deutsche Bank anticipates continued outflows of $0.5 billion, while consensus estimates assume $3.0 billion in inflows (6%).

Valuation concerns were another key factor behind the downgrade. Analysts noted that Ashmore trades at a price-to-management fee earnings ratio of 21x for FY2027 based on Deutsche Bank’s estimates (or 20x on a headline P/E basis), versus sector peers trading around 10–12x. Even under the most optimistic consensus scenario — assuming $4.8 billion in net inflows (9% of opening AuM) — the stock would still trade at 18x price-to-management fee earnings or 16x headline P/E, levels viewed as unjustifiably high relative to the broader asset management sector.

Deutsche Bank concluded that the shares currently trade at a “material and unjustified premium” to traditional asset management peers, reflecting limited upside potential in the near term.

More about Ashmore Group plc

Ashmore Group plc is a London-based emerging markets-focused investment manager, offering strategies across fixed income, equities, alternatives, and multi-asset classes. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and a member of the FTSE 250, Ashmore manages global portfolios emphasizing emerging market debt and equities, serving institutional and retail clients worldwide.