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Geopolitical tensions seem to have cooled somewhat in recent weeks: the U.S. president is no longer talking about possible operations against Mexico or Colombia, and with Iran, diplomacy seems to have taken precedence. No wonder optimism in gold has faded somewhat, and oil prices have pulled back.

That said, this could simply be the calm before the storm.

When it comes to Tehran, although a new round of nuclear talks with the U.S. is expected this week, it is hard to see Iran agreeing to demands such as exporting all of its uranium stockpiles or dismantling its enrichment infrastructure, and renewed domestic protests could also serve as a pretext for action.

If the U.S. ultimately launches an attack on Iran, the fact that it takes place over the weekend while markets are closed will likely not prevent a risk-off reaction. It would need to be swift, like the one in Venezuela, but that seems unlikely given reports that the U.S. military is preparing for sustained, weeks-long operations.

In such a scenario, oil prices could spike sharply as traders price in the threat to supplies — especially if the Strait of Hormuz were closed, given the region’s outsized role in global energy flows. This kind of risk premium has supported oil moves recently.

If the worst were to happen and Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, panic selling could affect a market already under pressure from AI-related concerns. In that scenario, virtually all assets, including silver and gold, could come under pressure — though silver recent price action shows how volatile it has become. Incidentally, cryptocurrencies could be the hardest hit…

As for the conflict in Ukraine, another round of negotiations is scheduled for February 17 and 18. The fact that talks are continuing is encouraging, but key territorial issues remain unresolved. That makes the prospect of lasting peace in the short term seem quite distant, which is perhaps only good news for defense contractors.

Thus, even with U.S. markets closed today for Presidents’ Day and China celebrating the Lunar New Year, it is unlikely to be a quiet week. Even if geopolitics remain calm, the minutes from the latest Fed meeting, December PCE data, GDP figures, and weekly jobless claims could further sour sentiment.

Rosebank Industries (LSE:ROSE) said it is in advanced negotiations to purchase two U.S.-based companies currently owned by private equity firms, in a deal that carries a headline enterprise value of roughly $3.05 billion.

The company’s shares declined 2.5% following the announcement.

According to a company statement, the proposed acquisition would be financed through a mix of new borrowing facilities and an equity raise of approximately £1.9 billion.

Rosebank did not disclose the identities of the businesses involved or provide a timetable for when the transaction might be finalized.

Crude prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as investors weighed the prospects of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations against the likelihood that OPEC+ will move ahead with plans to increase output.

As of 09:10 GMT, Brent crude was down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 17 cents to $62.72 per barrel.

Market participation was limited, with financial centers in China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year, alongside the Presidents Day holiday in the United States.

Both benchmarks ended last week lower, with Brent easing roughly 0.5% and WTI shedding about 1%, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could potentially reach an agreement with Tehran within a month.

Washington and Tehran are scheduled to meet again in Geneva on Tuesday for a second round of discussions focused on Iran’s nuclear program and preventing further military escalation.

An Iranian diplomat was quoted Sunday as saying Tehran is pursuing a deal with the United States that would bring mutual economic benefits, including cooperation in energy and mining investment as well as aircraft purchases.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Reuters that a second aircraft carrier has been deployed to the region and contingency plans are in place for an extended military operation should talks collapse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that any strike on Iranian territory could prompt retaliatory action against U.S. military installations.

“An escalation in tensions with Iran could push Brent toward $80 per barrel. A de-escalation would likely send it back toward $60 per barrel,” SEB analysts said in a research note.

Although geopolitical risks have provided some underlying support to prices, expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known collectively as OPEC+ — may restart production increases from April are capping gains. According to Reuters, the group is leaning toward that decision at its March 1 meeting after a three-month pause in supply adjustments.

Gold prices moved modestly lower on Monday, with silver also under pressure, as markets continued to evaluate the trajectory of U.S. interest rates following the latest inflation readings.

As of 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), spot gold declined 0.6% to $5,015.40 per ounce, while April gold futures slipped 0.2% to $5,035.25 per ounce.

Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $77.230 per ounce, and platinum fell 1% to $2,057.10 per ounce.

Precious metals have seen pronounced volatility over the past two weeks, with sharp intraday swings, and both gold and silver remain well below their late-January highs.

Trading volumes were muted, with financial markets in China, South Korea, and the United States closed for the session.

Rate uncertainty keeps metals choppy

Gold and silver held onto part of last week’s advances, supported by bargain-hunting and a softer U.S. dollar. Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran also contributed to safe-haven demand.

Even so, both metals continue to trade beneath their late-January peaks and have experienced erratic price movements as investors grapple with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

The late-January downturn in gold followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.

Warsh has been perceived as less supportive of aggressive monetary easing, prompting concerns that U.S. financial conditions may remain relatively restrictive in the coming years.

“The market’s attention is gradually shifting to the potential impact of tariffs, which has yet to fully emerge in economic and inflation data, and doubts remain around future Fed credibility. Such a backdrop will intensify investors’ appetite for real assets like gold,” ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that their longer-term outlook for gold remains broadly constructive.

Focus turns to Fed minutes and inflation data

Investors are now awaiting further signals on the U.S. economic outlook, starting with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting on Wednesday.

The minutes are expected to offer deeper insight into policymakers’ thinking on interest rates, particularly as markets weigh the possibility of a leadership transition at the central bank.

Later this week, December’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — will be published and is likely to influence expectations for the longer-term rate outlook.

Additional U.S. economic releases scheduled for the week include trade data and industrial production figures.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) moved lower on Monday, adding to a prolonged downturn that has now stretched into a fourth straight week, as persistent uncertainty over U.S. interest rate policy continued to weigh on demand for high-risk assets.

The leading cryptocurrency slipped after briefly reclaiming the $70,000 level over the weekend. By 00:58 ET, Bitcoin was down 2.7% at $68,409.7.

Strategy says balance sheet resilient even in sharp downturn

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin — said Sunday it remains confident in its ability to service its debt even under a severe price correction.

In a social media update, the company stated it can “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”

Strategy currently holds 714,644 Bitcoin, financed through a mix of equity issuance and long-term borrowing. Led by outspoken Bitcoin supporter Michael Saylor, the company has continued accumulating the cryptocurrency despite the recent pullback.

Bitcoin has now surrendered roughly half of its value since reaching a record peak near $126,000 in October. The token has been at the center of broader selling pressure in speculative markets, as shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy have prompted investors to dial back risk exposure.

The sustained slide has fueled speculation that Strategy could eventually face pressure to offload part of its holdings to meet liabilities — a scenario Saylor has repeatedly dismissed.

Earlier this month, Strategy reported a $12.4 billion loss for the December quarter, sharply wider than the $670.8 million loss posted a year earlier. Outside of its substantial Bitcoin position, the company generates relatively modest operating income.

Altcoins mirror Bitcoin weakness

The wider crypto market also trended lower, tracking Bitcoin’s ongoing retreat.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6.1% to $1,958.63, while XRP dropped 7.7% to $1.4575.

BNB declined about 4%, with Solana and Cardano losing 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slumped 11.4%, while $TRUMP shed 2.4%.

Sentiment across digital assets has remained fragile since October, with both retail and institutional inflows slowing significantly. At the same time, a rally in gold prices and stronger interest in physical safe-haven assets have diverted capital away from cryptocurrencies.