Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) could reach $300,000 by the end of 2029 as mounting sovereign debt and the prospect of currency debasement increase the appeal of scarce assets, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani.
The forecast assumes Bitcoin broadly maintains the four-year market cycle that has characterised its historical price movements. Before reaching the projected 2029 peak, Bernstein expects the cryptocurrency to recover to a fresh record of $150,000 by mid-2027.
“Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E,” Chhugani wrote in a note to clients.
Higher borrowing costs shape Bernstein’s Bitcoin outlook
A central part of Bernstein’s argument is that the prolonged period of falling interest rates that characterised the previous 40 years has ended.
With sovereign debt already at unprecedented levels, governments now face the prospect of substantially higher debt-servicing costs. Bernstein believes rising yields can create a feedback loop in which larger interest expenses widen budget deficits, leading governments to issue additional debt.
“Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive,” the firm said.
If policymakers ultimately tolerate greater currency debasement to manage fiscal pressures, Bernstein believes investors could increasingly seek assets with structurally limited supply.
Bernstein sees Bitcoin leading the debasement trade
Bitcoin stands out as the leading hard asset within this thesis, according to the firm.
Bernstein estimates that approximately 60% of Bitcoin is held by investors who have demonstrated limited sensitivity to price fluctuations, maintaining their positions even through drawdowns exceeding 50%.
That relatively stable ownership base is being accompanied by expanding access for institutional and retail investors, potentially providing additional sources of demand during future market cycles.
Bernstein believes this combination of limited supply, established long-term holders and broader investor access supports its longer-term price projections.
Strategy target lowered despite Outperform rating
Alongside its Bitcoin forecast, Bernstein lowered its price target for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to $350 from $450.
The firm nevertheless maintained its Outperform rating, noting that Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.
The company owns approximately 4% of the world’s Bitcoin supply, maintaining significant exposure to future movements in the cryptocurrency’s price.
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