Oil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, although neither government had confirmed the arrangement. Financial markets were also preparing for US inflation data, the beginning of third-quarter bank earnings and further developments in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures for December delivery fell 1.8% to $102.84 per barrel, partially reversing a gain of almost 3% during the previous week.
Trump described the proposed arrangement as an immediate “energy ceasefire” and called on Ukraine to suspend attacks against Russian oil refineries. He also proposed increasing Russian diesel exports to the United States and other international markets.
However, reports indicated that Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy facilities continued over the weekend, while Russia launched further attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv had confirmed that the proposed ceasefire was in effect.
The possibility of additional Russian diesel exports also faces operational uncertainty. Ukrainian attacks have reportedly affected refinery output, raising questions about Russia’s ability to increase shipments while maintaining sufficient domestic fuel supplies.
A comparable ceasefire initiative announced by Washington in September did not result in a confirmed agreement between the two countries.
US Consumer Inflation Data Due Wednesday
The US Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to provide further information about inflation trends ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision.
Forecasts cited in the source indicate that annual headline inflation could rise to 3.7%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to ease to 2.5%.
Market expectations currently indicate an approximately 18% probability of an interest-rate increase this month.
Investors will assess whether higher energy costs are contributing to broader inflation and whether underlying price pressures are moderating.
An inflation reading above forecasts could affect expectations for future interest-rate decisions, while weaker underlying inflation could reduce concerns about additional monetary tightening.
Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins With US Banks
Major US banks are scheduled to begin releasing third-quarter financial results on Tuesday, opening a reporting period during which approximately 70% of S&P 500 companies are expected to publish earnings in October.
Analysts forecast average earnings-per-share growth of approximately 30%, with companies benefiting from artificial intelligence infrastructure investment expected to account for more than half of that increase.
Capital spending by major cloud-computing providers, known as hyperscalers, is projected to increase 116% year on year.
The results will provide an indication of whether higher investment in AI infrastructure is contributing to revenue and earnings growth among semiconductor companies, cloud providers and other technology businesses.
Corporate results may also reflect approximately $69 billion in tariff refunds during the third quarter. Analysts expect a smaller contribution from companies’ equity investments.
Investors will examine corporate forecasts alongside reported earnings to assess expectations for profitability and capital expenditure during the coming quarters.
Strait of Hormuz Negotiations Remain Stalled
Discussions between Iran and the United States over maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
Tehran described Washington’s response to its proposals as insufficient, while Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran had suspended further communications through Qatari intermediaries pending clarification of outstanding conditions.
Iran has indicated that normal shipping could resume within seven days if the terms of its seven-condition proposal are met. However, Tehran has maintained that the strait would remain closed to US traffic while disagreements persist.
The diplomatic situation has been complicated by reports of an attack at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, with reported casualties of 12 people killed and 309 injured. These figures have not been independently verified in the supplied material.
Trump is also reportedly considering additional military action against Iran.
Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Continued restrictions on shipping could affect international energy supplies and contribute to higher fuel costs.
Russian Energy Infrastructure Remains Under Pressure
The proposed expansion of Russian diesel exports comes as the country’s refining operations continue to face reported disruption from Ukrainian attacks.
Strikes have also reportedly affected Russian technology infrastructure, including Yandex data centres, causing interruptions to regional online services.
The extent of any increase in Russian fuel exports will depend on available refining capacity, domestic consumption requirements and whether military attacks on energy facilities decline.
Markets will therefore be monitoring developments in Russia and Ukraine alongside US inflation figures, corporate earnings announcements and negotiations involving Iran and the United States.
The proposed energy ceasefire remains unconfirmed, and no timetable has been established for a sustained reduction in attacks or an increase in Russian diesel shipments.
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