Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices rose for a third consecutive session on Thursday, gaining around 1.5%, as growing concerns that the United States could take military action against Iran heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures advanced 94 cents, or 1.4%, to $69.34 a barrel by 07:30 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 92 cents, or 1.5%, to $64.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks are now up roughly 5% since the start of the week and are trading at their highest levels since September 29.

The rally has been driven by increasing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran to curb its nuclear programme, alongside renewed threats of military strikes and the arrival of U.S. naval forces in the region. Iran, the fourth-largest producer in OPEC with output of around 3.2 million barrels per day, is a key source of risk for global energy markets should tensions escalate.

According to Reuters, Trump is evaluating potential strikes against Iranian security forces and senior leadership in an effort to encourage unrest and potentially destabilise the current government, citing U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.

“The main driver of oil prices remains geopolitical risk premium surrounding Iran and the Middle East, though unplanned outages in Kazakhstan and U.S. (Winter Storm Fern) have had temporary impact as well,” DBS Bank’s energy sector team lead Suvro Sarkar said in an email.

Beyond geopolitics, supply-side disruptions have also provided support. In Kazakhstan, output at the massive Tengiz oilfield is being brought back online in phases after electrical fires curtailed production last week, with full output expected within about a week. In the United States, the world’s largest oil producer and top exporter of liquefied natural gas, operators have been restarting crude and gas production following weather-related shutdowns caused by Winter Storm Fern.

Prices were further underpinned by an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, which briefly eased concerns over excess supply, according to Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels in the week ended January 23, versus expectations for a 1.8 million-barrel build in a Reuters poll.

Some analysts see further upside risks if tensions around Iran intensify.

“The potential for Iran getting hit has escalated the geopolitical premium of oil prices by potentially $3 to $4 (per barrel),” analysts at Citi said in a note on Wednesday. They added that further geopolitical escalation could push Brent prices as high as $72 a barrel over the next three months.

Gold and silver prices pushed to fresh all-time highs on Thursday, extending a powerful rally as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran drove investors toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Gold surged to a record level just below $5,600 an ounce, building on recent gains after reports indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump was weighing further military action against Iran. Silver also joined the rally, climbing above $119 an ounce for the first time, supported by strong defensive demand.

The advance in precious metals showed little sign of fading amid intensifying geopolitical risks worldwide, which have boosted appetite for physical stores of value. Additional support came from a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent uncertainty around U.S. policy, while copper prices also climbed to record levels during the session.

Spot gold jumped more than 2% to an all-time high of $5,595.41 an ounce, while April gold futures reached a peak of $5,625.89. Although prices eased slightly from their highs, gold remained firmly above $5,500 an ounce by 00:45 ET (05:45 GMT). Spot silver rose more than 1% to a record $119.4280 an ounce.

“Gold is no longer just a crisis hedge or an inflation hedge; it is increasingly viewed as a neutral, and a reliable store of value asset that also provides diversification across a wider range of macro regimes,” OCBC analysts said in a note.
“This helps explain why pullbacks have tended to be shallow and well-supported,” they added. OCBC recently raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,600 an ounce.

Trump weighs further action on Iran – CNN

According to CNN, Trump is considering a “major new strike” on Iran after negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and missile development stalled. The report follows the deployment of additional U.S. naval assets to the Middle East and earlier warnings of military action, which Trump framed as potential support for nationwide protests in Iran.

Earlier in the day, Trump posted on social media urging Iran to reach a “fair and equitable” agreement with Washington and to abandon its nuclear ambitions. He also warned that any future U.S. strike would be far more severe than the mid-2025 operation that targeted Iran’s main nuclear facilities.

CNN said the administration is now weighing airstrikes against Iranian leaders and security officials accused of killing protesters, as well as further attacks on nuclear sites. Any escalation risks sharply increasing tensions across the Middle East, with Iran having vowed strong retaliation.

Geopolitical risks tied to U.S. foreign policy have been a key driver of demand for gold and other safe-haven assets, particularly after Washington launched a military incursion into Venezuela earlier this month. Trump’s demands relating to Greenland also contributed to defensive positioning, although his rhetoric has moderated somewhat in recent weeks.

Gold prices were largely unmoved by the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a widely anticipated outcome. The central bank also offered an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy, although Chair Jerome Powell declined to comment on questions surrounding the Fed’s independence amid a Justice Department investigation.

Platinum holds firm, copper extends rally

Strength in gold spilled over into the wider metals complex, aided by dollar weakness and investor preference for neutral, physical assets. Spot platinum rose 2.6% to $2,775.73 an ounce, remaining close to recent highs and not far from record levels set earlier this month after tracking gold higher through late 2025.

Copper also took part in the rally, with benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange jumping more than 6% to a record $14,123.95 a tonne. The red metal drew additional support from reports of fresh policy measures aimed at stabilising China’s troubled property sector, a major source of demand in the world’s largest copper-importing country.

Copper prices surged to new all-time highs on Thursday, spearheading a broad rally across industrial metals as investors rotated into physical assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a persistently soft U.S. dollar.

The most-active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the daytime session up 6.71% at 109,110 yuan ($15,708.77) per metric tonne, after jumping as much as 8.53% earlier in the day to a record 110,970 yuan. In London, the three-month copper benchmark on the London Metal Exchange climbed 6.32% to $13,913.50 a tonne by 07:00 GMT, having briefly spiked 7.94% to an intraday high of $14,125.

So far this year, copper prices in Shanghai are up around 9%, while the LME benchmark has gained more than 11%, extending a powerful rally that began in 2025. That earlier advance was driven by supply-side concerns, including mine disruptions and regional bottlenecks, compounded by the threat of new U.S. tariffs.

Traders said copper has increasingly benefited from a shift in investor focus following sharp gains in gold and silver. Thursday’s surge followed fresh record highs in precious metals, as demand for hard assets intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of possible military action against Iran if no agreement is reached on its nuclear programme.

Although the U.S. dollar steadied after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, it remains close to recent lows. The weaker dollar has supported dollar-priced commodities by improving affordability for buyers using other currencies, helping underpin demand.

The rally in copper has come despite soft spot demand in China, the world’s largest consumer. The Yangshan copper premium, a key measure of Chinese appetite for imported copper, fell to $20 a tonne on Wednesday, its lowest level since July 2024.

Elsewhere in the metals complex, aluminium prices remained firm. The most-active aluminium contract in Shanghai settled 2.92% higher at 25,590 yuan a tonne, while the LME aluminium benchmark rose 1.30% to $3,299.50.

Other base metals also posted solid gains. On the SHFE, zinc rose 2.91%, lead advanced 1.09%, nickel climbed 1.79% and tin edged up 0.28%. On the LME, zinc jumped 2.91%, lead gained 1.44%, nickel added 2.49% and tin increased 1.07%.

U.S. equity futures edged higher as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision alongside a wave of high-profile technology earnings. The central bank left interest rates unchanged, emphasizing the underlying strength of the U.S. economy, while major tech groups including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reaffirmed their commitment to heavy investment in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) unveiled plans to invest in Elon Musk’s private AI venture, and gold prices pushed to fresh record highs.

Futures inch higher

U.S. stock futures were mostly positive early Thursday as markets absorbed the Fed’s decision and results from several mega-cap technology names. By 03:02 ET, Dow futures were broadly flat, S&P 500 futures were up 13 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 85 points, or 0.3%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 broke above the 7,000 level for the first time, driven by continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and expectations that interest rate cuts could follow later in the year.

“[T]he big focus was on tech, as companies in the industry nearly across the board reported robust results and issued favorable guidance,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Supported by relative economic resilience despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty, the S&P 500 has added roughly 1,000 points since November 2024.

Fed stands pat

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in a 3.5%–3.75% range, as widely expected, pointing to solid economic conditions and signs of stabilization in the labor market. Most members of the rate-setting committee favored holding policy steady, although Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both supported a quarter-point reduction.

At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell avoided further comment on a Justice Department investigation and instead highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy. He suggested that the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariffs could ease over time, adding that while a rate increase was not ruled out, it “isn’t anybody’s base case right now.”

Analysts at ING said the Fed’s more upbeat assessment of growth suggests that the easing cycle seen last year may be nearing its conclusion. Even so, the U.S. dollar continued to weaken against a basket of major currencies.

Meta and Microsoft underline AI ambitions

Artificial intelligence spending once again dominated the narrative from Meta and Microsoft, with both companies signaling that large-scale investment in data centers, chips and related infrastructure will continue. Investors, however, remain focused on when these outlays will translate into more visible returns.

Meta said capital expenditure could rise to as much as $135bn this year, far exceeding expectations and nearly doubling its 2025 spend. The announcement coincided with record fourth-quarter revenue, helping lift Meta shares in extended trading.

Microsoft’s shares moved lower after the company flagged higher-than-expected AI-related costs and slightly softer growth in its Azure cloud business compared with the previous quarter. Attention now turns to further tech earnings, including results from Apple later Thursday.

Tesla backs xAI

Tesla also delivered better-than-expected quarterly results, reinforcing its strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence. Shares rose 2.7% after hours after the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share on revenue of $24.9bn, beating consensus forecasts.

A key highlight was the decision to invest $2bn in xAI, Elon Musk’s private AI startup. Management described 2025 as a milestone year, marking the company’s “transition from a hardware-centric business to a physical AI company.”

While automotive revenue declined 11% year on year, Tesla’s energy storage segment posted record deployments of 14.2 gigawatt-hours. Facing intensifying competition and having fallen behind China’s BYD in global EV rankings, Tesla is increasingly positioning AI and robotics as core long-term growth drivers.

Gold extends record rally

Gold prices surged to another all-time high near $5,600 an ounce, extending a strong rally amid reports that President Trump may be considering renewed military action against Iran. Silver also reached a fresh record above $119 an ounce, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets.

The rally in precious metals has been fueled by heightened geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar and policy uncertainty, with copper also touching record levels.

“Gold is no longer just a crisis hedge or an inflation hedge; it is increasingly viewed as a neutral, and a reliable store of value asset that also provides diversification across a wider range of macro regimes,” OCBC analysts said in a note.

“This helps explain why pullbacks have tended to be shallow and well-supported,” they added.

Rémy Cointreau (EU:RCO) reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales, exceeding market forecasts on organic growth and prompting an early rally of around 8% in its share price in Paris trading, while management left full-year guidance unchanged.

Organic sales in the third quarter increased by 2.8%, comfortably ahead of consensus expectations of 1.6%. Reported revenue reached €245.8m, surpassing the €242.7m anticipated by the market. Performance was driven primarily by the cognac division, where organic sales rose 3.2%, well above consensus forecasts of 1.3%.

Liqueurs and spirits delivered organic growth of 2.8%, broadly in line with market expectations of around 3%. Partner Brands remained the weakest area of the portfolio, with organic sales declining 9.3%, although this was marginally better than consensus estimates, which had pointed to a 10% drop.

The group reiterated its fiscal 2026 (F26) outlook, continuing to guide for organic sales to be stable to down at a low single-digit rate and for EBIT to decline by low double digits to the mid-teens percentage range. This guidance was unchanged from the first-half update, despite consensus expectations for organic sales growth of roughly 0.4% and an EBIT decline of 12.8%.

Commenting on the update, Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy highlighted early signs of stabilization in China during the quarter. He noted that mainland China sales were down at a low double-digit rate in Q3, but that, once adjusted for timing effects, performance was “almost stable,” supported by a normalization in duty-free activity.

“Unchanged guidance was expected but should be enough, in particular given technical benefit to 4Q from shift in CNY,” he said in a note.

“Whilst recent weakening of US$ vs EUR could lead to some pressure on F27 given U.S. is 1/3rd of sales, reiteration of F26 guidance and a sense that China, whilst tough, is finding a bottom should be positive for sentiment,” he added.

Looking further ahead, the analyst said transformation planning is underway and is expected to be rolled out from April, marking the start of the next financial year.

Glencore plc (LSE:GLEN) said it expects full-year 2025 marketing adjusted earnings before interest and tax to land around the midpoint of its upgraded guidance range, as a strong recovery in second-half copper output offset weaker production earlier in the year.

The miner and commodities trader reported improved operational performance across several copper assets in the second half of 2025 after mine sequencing challenges had weighed on volumes in the first half. Chief executive Gary Nagle said Glencore delivered full-year production within guidance for its key commodities for a second consecutive year, reflecting the benefits of a more streamlined and optimised operating structure.

Own-sourced copper production for 2025 totalled 851,600 tonnes, down 11% year on year, largely due to lower ore feed at Collahuasi and weaker output at Antamina and Antapaccay earlier in the year. However, second-half copper production surged 48% to 507,700 tonnes, driven by improved grades and recoveries at KCC, Mutanda, Antapaccay and Antamina.

Zinc output increased 7% to 969,400 tonnes, supported by higher production at Kazzinc and McArthur River, with second-half volumes rising to 504,200 tonnes from 465,200 tonnes in the first half. Cobalt production fell 5% to 36,100 tonnes due to export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Glencore confirmed it did not export cobalt in the fourth quarter of 2025 following the introduction of quotas after the lifting of the export ban, which delayed shipments. Unused quotas can be carried forward until 31 March 2026, and the group said it plans to export cobalt in line with allocations during 2026 and 2027.

Steelmaking coal production rose sharply to 32.5 million tonnes, reflecting the inclusion of Elk Valley Resources, compared with 12.5 million tonnes in 2024. In contrast, energy coal output fell 2% to 98.0 million tonnes, following the closure of the Cerrejón operation in Colombia in March 2025, partly offset by stronger Australian production. Attributable ferrochrome output declined 63% to 436,000 tonnes after smelting operations at Boshoek and Wonderkop were suspended in mid-2025.

Glencore reiterated its longer-term copper growth ambitions, referencing updated guidance provided at its capital markets day in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also published its 2025 resources and reserves report, highlighting additions to its copper mineral resource base, including increases at Lomas Bayas and El Pachón.

Henry Boot PLC (LSE:BOOT) reported a solid performance for 2025 despite a challenging operating backdrop, with profit before tax expected to come in broadly in line with market consensus, supported by exceptionally strong residential land activity.

The group’s Hallam Land division delivered a record year, selling 3,957 residential plots, comfortably ahead of its long-term target of 3,500 plots per annum. Planning success was also strong, with 4,159 plots securing consent during the year, reinforcing the quality and depth of the land pipeline. Net debt increased to £108m as a result of higher investment in land and planning activity, moving modestly above the group’s target gearing range of 10–20%.

Within the HBD development business, Henry Boot completed schemes with a total gross development value of £119m, of which the group’s share was £33m. Around 32% of these developments were pre-let or pre-sold, providing a degree of income visibility. The company also expanded its Origin joint venture, which now comprises three schemes totalling 449,000 square feet, further strengthening its development platform.

Operational progress was complemented by several significant planning milestones, including advancement at Golden Valley and new consents at Duxford and FREEPORT 36. In contrast, the Stonebridge Homes housebuilding arm completed 185 homes, below expectations, although it continued to invest for the future by expanding its land bank to 2,572 plots.

Looking ahead, Henry Boot struck a more cautious tone, warning that profit before tax in 2026 is expected to be “significantly below current market expectations”. Management cited subdued transaction activity, broader macroeconomic uncertainty, a lower forward sales position and the expiry of the profitable Road Link contract in March as key headwinds.

Chief executive Tim Roberts said that while near-term market conditions remain soft, the fundamentals across the group’s core markets remain attractive. He added that Henry Boot is well positioned to capitalise on opportunities embedded within its portfolio, supported by a strong balance sheet and a disciplined approach to capital allocation.

More about Henry Boot PLC

Henry Boot PLC is a UK-based property and construction group operating across three core segments: land promotion through Hallam Land, property development via HBD, and housebuilding under the Stonebridge Homes brand. The group focuses on long-term value creation through disciplined land investment, development expertise and selective exposure to residential, commercial and industrial property markets across the UK.

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc (LSE:CRST) reported fiscal year 2025 results broadly in line with guidance and outlined an FY26 outlook that matches current market expectations, as the UK housebuilder continues to reset its operating model and product mix.

In FY25, the group completed 1,691 homes at an average selling price of £323,000, a 6% decline reflecting changes in sales mix. Total revenue reached £610m, including £78.8m from land sales. Adjusted operating profit was £34.7m, while adjusted profit before tax came in at £26.5m, which management described as meeting guidance at the lower end of its previously stated £28m–£38m range. Net debt at year end stood at £38.2m, below the company’s prior guidance range of £40m–£90m.

Looking ahead to FY26, Crest Nicholson expects to deliver 1,100–1,200 open market homes alongside 450–500 bulk and affordable units. The group anticipates a reversal of the adverse mix impact seen in 2025, with average selling prices projected to rise by around 6%. Land revenue is forecast in the range of £75m–£110m, adjusted gross margin at 15–16%, and adjusted profit before tax of £32m–£40m. Net debt is expected to fall within a range of £15m–£65m.

Operationally, the company completed the planned closure of its Chiltern division in December 2025. From January 2026, all new planning submissions will incorporate Crest Nicholson’s refreshed housing product, with production rollout scheduled to begin in 2027. During the year, the group also settled a legal claim relating to a fire-damaged block broadly in line with existing provisions, alongside a £4.1m increase in its Building Safety Provision.

Since Boxing Day, management has seen early signs of improving market activity, including higher website traffic, increased customer enquiries and stronger appointment conversion rates. January sales rates have recovered to levels comparable with the early weeks of 2025. The forward order book for FY26 stands at 848 units, down from 1,051 a year earlier, although it now contains a higher proportion of open market homes following a weaker second half in 2025.

Crest Nicholson reported a short-term land bank of 11,083 plots, equating to 6.3 years of supply, alongside a strategic land bank of 18,461 plots. The proportion of strategic land allocated or at draft allocation stage has risen to 66%, up from 50%, supporting longer-term delivery visibility.

More about Crest Nicholson Holdings plc

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc is a UK-based residential property developer focused on building high-quality homes across the South of England and the Midlands. The group operates across open market, affordable housing and bulk sales, with an emphasis on design-led developments, disciplined land investment and capital management to support sustainable returns through the housing cycle.