Author: Fiona Craig

Equity positioning and leverage have increased again following the deleveraging seen earlier in the summer, according to JPMorgan, which said the renewed build-up could present a challenge for equity markets during the fourth quarter.

Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the measures remain below the levels recorded during June and July but have moved higher over the past two months.

“Elevated equity positioning and leverage have re-emerged, albeit to a lesser extent than last June/July, posing some challenge to equities into Q4,” Panigirtzoglou wrote.

JPMorgan had said at the end of July that the earlier reduction in leverage had largely removed previous positioning excesses. The bank’s latest analysis shows several measures have subsequently rebounded.

US equity futures leverage is now close to its highest levels of the year, according to JPMorgan. Its broader positioning measure appears to have reached a peak in September after rising to levels comparable with January and August 2025.

JPMorgan Tracks Rebuilding of Long Positions

Short interest in SPY has started to move away from the record low reached in early September, while semiconductor ETF short positions have normalised, according to JPMorgan.

The bank said these developments indicate that most of the previous short-covering activity has already occurred.

Momentum-based investors have also begun rebuilding long exposure to the Nasdaq, Kospi, Taiwan and Nikkei. JPMorgan said these positions have increased without reaching the previous extremes.

Assets held in leveraged equity ETFs as a proportion of the underlying market’s value have also increased over recent weeks.

Among the various indicators, JPMorgan identified leverage in margin accounts as the largest vulnerability. The bank said margin leverage remained at very elevated levels in August and declined only marginally during the summer’s broader deleveraging.

Technology and AI Fundamentals Remain Supportive, JPMorgan Says

While highlighting the potential positioning headwinds, JPMorgan said it continues to see fundamental support for technology and artificial intelligence-related markets.

The bank pointed to increases in memory prices and higher capital expenditure forecasts from hyperscalers.

JPMorgan also noted that AI computing prices have remained stable, providing another factor in its assessment of underlying conditions across the technology and AI segment.

Morgan Stanley expects the divergence between the S&P 500 and broader equity market participation to narrow over the coming month, with bond market volatility playing a central role in its outlook.

Strategist Michael Wilson said the bank expects market breadth and index levels to converge if volatility in fixed-income markets remains elevated.

“We lean toward a meeting in the middle if bond vol doesn’t calm down,” Wilson wrote.

Morgan Stanley continues to characterise the current environment as a mid-cycle equity market. The bank said earnings remain supportive while valuations have declined, with higher-quality companies accounting for a larger share of market leadership.

“The equity market is not complacent around the risks,” Wilson wrote.

More than half of Russell 3000 constituents have fallen by at least 20% since June, according to Morgan Stanley. At the same time, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio has declined to around 19 times, near its March low, while earnings for the median company continue to grow at a mid-teens rate.

“Market breadth improved through most of the summer even as energy prices and yields rose, while the momentum factor experienced one of its worst drawdowns in history,” Wilson added. “The recent narrowing in breadth occurred after Jackson Hole as the market priced a more hawkish Fed path.”

Morgan Stanley Outlines Two Paths for Market Breadth

If bond volatility remains elevated, Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 and broader market breadth to move towards each other over the next month. The bank subsequently expects a stronger finish to the year.

An earlier decline in bond volatility would produce a different scenario under the bank’s outlook. In that case, Morgan Stanley expects breadth to catch up with the index, potentially allowing both measures to rise.

Wilson continues to favour higher-quality large-cap companies, particularly asset-light businesses experiencing upward revisions to earnings estimates. He said he would add exposure to riskier equities if the index declines during the coming month.

Artificial intelligence adoption also remains part of Morgan Stanley’s earnings outlook. The bank said companies making greater use of AI are currently recording higher margins and earnings.

Consensus forecasts assume that these benefits diminish in subsequent years, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank said earnings estimates could therefore have further room to increase if AI-related financial benefits prove more persistent than currently assumed.

Proprietary frontier artificial intelligence models are increasing their capability advantage over open-weight systems after a period in which the two categories had moved closer together, according to Citi.

The firm said the leading proprietary model’s score on the AA Intelligence Index increased to 58 from 53. The highest score among open models, meanwhile, increased to 46 from 44, taking the gap between the two groups to 12 points compared with 9 previously.

Citi said additional private evaluations have also indicated a wider separation in recent weeks. The difference has been particularly evident in long-horizon cybersecurity tasks and measures of reliability in production environments, according to the firm.

Citi said the previous convergence occurred partly during a period when regulatory considerations restricted the release of some advanced models. Open-weight developers also had access to model-distillation techniques and advanced offshore computing resources.

The firm said greater availability of compute could change that dynamic by enabling frontier laboratories to perform model distillation more efficiently than open-weight developers.

Recent model releases have also contributed to changes in measured capabilities. Citi cited Anthropic (NASDAQ:ANTP), which said on September 22 that Opus 5.5 raised the AA intelligence frontier by 9% while costing 40% less than Opus 5 for typical workloads.

Citi also noted that newer versions of Grok and Gemini have recorded increases in intelligence measures without corresponding increases in token pricing.

Looking at enterprise use of AI, Citi expects businesses to adopt combinations of different models to reduce dependence on a single system or provider. At the same time, the firm said AI developers could increasingly incorporate routing and orchestration functions directly within their model infrastructure.

Bank of America has increased its long-term copper price projection to $12,000 per ton as the bank incorporates continuing supply constraints into its commodities outlook.

The new forecast represents a 20% increase and is equivalent to $5.44 per pound when expressed in 2026 dollars, according to the bank’s commodities update.

Bank of America strategists cited supply issues as the main factor behind the revised estimate and copper’s continued price strength.

The bank said the commodities market has experienced more than 12 months of policy developments and other market surprises, while the conflict in the Middle East continues to present a potential source of price volatility.

Its strategists also identified downside risks to the copper outlook. These include a potential demand shock resulting from energy prices and the possibility of a pause in capital spending on data centres.

Changes to Bank of America’s other commodity price forecasts were limited. The bank reduced its 2027 aluminium forecast by 5% to $3,625 per ton.

The strategists also said higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar were contributing to a bearish outlook for gold prices.

Investors are continuing to concentrate risk exposure in large-cap equities rather than expanding positioning across the broader market, according to Citi, while small-cap stocks remain subject to substantial short positioning.

Citi analyst David Chew said the latest positioning data showed an increasingly concentrated approach to equity risk.

“The dominant positioning story remains one of increasing concentration rather than broad-based risk taking,” Chew wrote.

In the US, overall positioning remained relatively stable despite stronger performance from major indices. Citi said the S&P 500 accounted for most new risk flows as investors increased exposure selectively.

Nasdaq positioning was little changed, with additional long and short activity largely offsetting each other.

The Russell 2000 continues to have the most bearish positioning of any global index monitored by Citi. Short exposure remains close to extreme levels, while the bank said the current macroeconomic backdrop continues to favour larger companies.

At the same time, Citi said the scale of short positions in small caps means the segment could experience a rally if investors begin closing those positions and buying back shares.

European equities currently have the strongest positioning profile among the regions tracked by Citi. Bullish EuroStoxx positioning has moved back towards recent highs alongside an improving macroeconomic outlook.

The bank noted, however, that around two-thirds of existing long positions are currently at a loss. Citi said this creates the potential for investors to reduce exposure if the economic outlook becomes less favourable.

Positioning across Asia remains comparatively bearish. Citi said the Hang Seng recorded the largest net outflow of any index it monitors as investors added substantial short exposure.

The bank also reported more bearish positioning in Japan’s Nikkei and the China A50.

South Korea’s KOSPI has moved differently from the wider regional trend. According to Citi, short sellers are beginning to record losses while long positions remain profitable. The bank said selective short covering could follow if artificial intelligence-related demand and corporate earnings confirm an improvement in fundamentals.

Gold prices were broadly stable on Friday as investors prepared for the September U.S. employment report, with the dollar remaining close to a 17-month high and Treasury yields staying elevated.

Spot gold gained 0.1% to $4,179.65 an ounce as of 06:47 GMT, while U.S. gold futures increased 0.2% to $4,210.15.

The precious metal was heading for its second consecutive weekly decline, having fallen 2.5% since the beginning of the week.

The U.S. Dollar Index eased 0.2% on Friday but remained near the 17-month high recorded in the previous session. It was on course to gain around 1% for the week. A higher dollar can make dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Treasury yields also remained at elevated levels. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield briefly climbed to 5.344% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002, before retreating to approximately 5.25% on Friday.

Higher bond yields can increase the relative opportunity cost of holding gold because the metal does not generate interest income.

September Jobs Report Could Inform Fed Expectations

Attention is centred on September’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is due later on Friday and will provide additional information on labour-market conditions.

Economists expect U.S. employers to have added approximately 90,000 jobs during September, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.1%.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last month to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase in three years.

Market expectations for another increase in October have subsequently declined following lower inflation readings. The supplied information indicated that markets were assigning an approximately 26% probability to an October increase, compared with 69% a week earlier.

Gold had received support earlier in the week after U.S. inflation figures came in below expectations, reducing expectations for another near-term increase in interest rates.

Oil prices are also being monitored because sustained increases in energy costs could contribute to inflationary pressures. At the same time, elevated government bond yields can affect demand for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Silver, Platinum and Copper Move Higher

Other precious and industrial metals recorded modest gains during Asian trading hours.

Silver increased 0.2% to $61.05 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.4% to $1,733.60 an ounce.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange advanced 0.2% to $14,298.33 a tonne. U.S. copper futures gained 0.4% to $5.57 a pound.

Oil prices declined on Friday after advancing in the previous session, with markets assessing signs of recovering Middle East supply alongside the possibility of further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

At 06:35 GMT, December Brent crude futures were down 0.7% at $101.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.8% to $92.17 per barrel.

Brent and WTI had gained more than $4 and $2 per barrel, respectively, during Thursday’s session.

Thursday’s increase followed a Wall Street Journal report that Washington was considering deploying another aircraft carrier group and additional military personnel to the Middle East. The report brought renewed attention to the potential implications of further military activity for regional energy supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key consideration for oil markets because of its role in global energy shipments. Any disruption to tanker movements or regional infrastructure could affect supply flows, although the supplied information does not indicate that such a disruption has occurred.

Saudi Arabia Resumes Pipeline Operations and Yanbu Loadings

Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West Pipeline and resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu following earlier disruptions, according to the supplied information.

The resumption has helped restore some regional export flows, providing a counterweight to concerns about potential supply interruptions elsewhere in the Middle East.

Separately, reports indicated that Chinese refiners have suspended fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau during October.

The measure could reduce the availability of refined products on international markets, including diesel, jet fuel and petrol. Diesel markets have also been affected by lower Russian exports and uncertainty surrounding possible restrictions on U.S. fuel shipments.

The United States has reportedly encouraged European countries to consider releasing emergency diesel reserves as governments monitor fuel supplies, refinery production and inventories.

Oil Markets Monitor Demand and Inflation Outlook

Signs of recovering Middle East supply and uncertainty over global demand have limited further increases in crude prices following the recent rally, according to the supplied information.

Energy prices are also being monitored for their potential impact on inflation and central bank policy.

If crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, they could contribute to inflationary pressures and become a consideration for central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve. Any monetary-policy impact would depend on the duration and magnitude of the price increase alongside broader economic conditions.