Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices climbed for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, approaching three-week highs as deteriorating prospects for a US-Iran peace agreement increased concerns that disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies could continue.

Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.39%, to $91.22 a barrel by 0827 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 81 cents, or 0.96%, to $85.31.

Brent reached its highest intraday level since July 30, while WTI touched its strongest point since July 31. Both contracts were on course to record a third successive daily gain.

“Sentiment remained supported by US President Donald Trump’s decision not to extend the US-Iran peace agreement and continued security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts wrote in a note.

Iran’s Offensive Shift Clouds Prospects for Peace

Oil markets have become increasingly sensitive to developments surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with progress towards a permanent settlement now appearing to have stalled.

Normal tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have also failed to resume, prolonging disruption to the strategic waterway following the conflict launched by the United States and Israel with attacks on Iran on February 28.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran would move to a “fully offensive” military posture after efforts to reach a permanent end to the war stalled. Washington has meanwhile ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire agreement.

The breakdown is also beginning to influence expectations for oil prices beyond the immediate crisis.

“The lack of any kind of deal will have an impact on oil price expectations further out in 4Q and even in 2027,” said DBS Bank’s head of energy research Suvro Sarkar.

Vessel Strike Highlights Continued Hormuz Threat

Security risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated after another vessel was struck on Tuesday.

A projectile hit a ship travelling out of the strait, adding to a series of attacks that have kept the number of crossings in single digits. Tracking data indicated that traffic had improved slightly compared with the weekend but remained severely restricted.

The continuing disruption is particularly important for oil markets because of the volume of Middle Eastern crude normally transported through the waterway.

Saudi Aramco has resumed loading oil from inside the Strait of Hormuz and is offering cargoes through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE, creating another route for moving supplies despite the disruption.

Iran’s Ability to Restrict Oil Exports Remains Key Risk

Analysts are increasingly considering the possibility that Iran could further restrict energy flows if the military confrontation escalates.

“It is probably in Iran’s power to fully halt the flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz whenever they find it suitable. Or they will soon have built the capability of that. Iran is for sure not just sitting still waiting for new US sanctions,” said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

Separate negotiations between Iran and Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, with Tehran saying the two countries are close to reaching an agreement.

However, Trump has responded to those negotiations by threatening to bomb Oman, despite the Gulf state being a longstanding U.S. security partner.

Red Sea Attacks Add to Middle East Shipping Concerns

Risks to regional shipping are not confined to the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemen’s Houthis launched missiles at vessels they described as a Saudi military ship accompanied by four escorts in the Red Sea, military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on Telegram.

The incident adds another layer of uncertainty for shipping routes through the Middle East at a time when oil markets are already dealing with severe disruption around Hormuz.

With diplomatic negotiations stalled, tanker movements constrained and military risks spreading across key maritime corridors, crude prices remain vulnerable to further geopolitical premiums as traders assess supply conditions for the fourth quarter and into 2027.

European natural gas prices moved higher again on Tuesday, extending their recent rally as escalating military tensions in the Persian Gulf and severe disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns over winter energy supplies.

Benchmark Dutch front-month gas futures rose 1.8% to €62.8 per megawatt-hour, while equivalent British wholesale contracts gained 1.2% to 154.4 pence per therm.

Both benchmarks advanced for a fifth consecutive session, their longest daily winning streak since late July, as traders continued to add a geopolitical risk premium to European gas prices.

Iran Escalation Adds to Energy Market Concerns

Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing Iranian officials, that Tehran had moved to a fully offensive military posture following the collapse of diplomatic efforts to secure a permanent peace agreement and Washington’s decision not to extend a temporary ceasefire framework.

The deterioration in the geopolitical situation follows threats from US President Donald Trump over the weekend to impose a strict naval blockade or pursue military action in response to interference with regional shipping.

The escalating rhetoric has increased concerns across energy markets that disruption to one of the world’s most important shipping corridors could persist.

LNG Tankers Face Growing Hormuz Disruption

Energy traders are increasingly pricing in the physical impact of the crisis as commercial commodity traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted.

Traffic through the strategically important waterway came to a standstill over the weekend, leaving Qatari liquefied natural gas tankers stranded and delaying spot LNG cargoes destined for European import terminals.

The disruption comes as European utilities compete with Asian buyers for available LNG supplies. Asian customers have been bidding more aggressively for spot cargoes as they seek to secure sufficient fuel ahead of the winter heating season.

Prolonged restrictions on shipping could intensify that competition and potentially increase the cost of replacing delayed supplies.

European Gas Storage Sits at Historic August Low

The disruption is occurring at a particularly sensitive point for European energy security.

Figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe show underground storage facilities across the European Union are only slightly above 60% full, representing a historically low level for the middle of August.

Persistent summer heatwaves have increased electricity consumption for air conditioning, while weaker LNG inflows have restricted the amount of gas available for storage injections.

The combination has slowed Europe’s efforts to rebuild inventories before colder weather arrives.

Winter Supply Risks Rise as Storage Refill Lags

With storage levels substantially below seasonal norms, traders are becoming increasingly concerned that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves if LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not return to normal.

Continued competition with Asian buyers could compound the challenge, particularly if both regions attempt to secure additional spot cargoes simultaneously.

The outlook for European gas prices is therefore becoming increasingly tied to developments in the Persian Gulf. A restoration of unrestricted LNG shipping could ease some of the current risk premium, while prolonged disruption would increase pressure on Europe to secure alternative supplies before winter.

European equities moved lower again on Tuesday, pushing major regional benchmarks towards two-week lows as a sharp deterioration in the Middle East conflict increased risk aversion across global markets.

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2%, extending its decline to a sixth consecutive session and reaching its lowest level since 5 August. If the index remains lower through the close, it would mark its longest daily losing streak since November 2025.

Germany’s DAX declined 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 and London’s FTSE 100 were broadly unchanged as investors assessed the potential economic and market consequences of further escalation in the region.

Iran Adopts Offensive Stance as Washington Rules Out Ceasefire Extension

Geopolitical concerns intensified on Tuesday after Reuters reported that Tehran had shifted to a fully offensive military posture following the collapse of diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a lasting end to the conflict.

Citing Iranian officials, Reuters reported that Tehran had abandoned its previous defensive constraints after Washington explicitly rejected an extension of the temporary ceasefire framework that expired this week.

The diplomatic breakdown follows months of worsening maritime tensions in the Persian Gulf alongside recent threats of naval enforcement from the US administration.

The change in Iran’s military posture has heightened concerns over possible attacks on strategically important energy infrastructure and maritime shipping routes. Investors are consequently pricing in greater geopolitical risk as expectations for a negotiated settlement diminish.

Brent Crude Climbs Above $91 to Multi-Week High

Escalating tensions provided another boost to energy prices, adding to concerns over the cost environment facing European businesses.

Brent crude futures advanced 0.8% to $91.49 per barrel, reaching their highest level since 30 July.

A sustained increase in crude prices could revive cost-driven inflation pressures across European supply chains, particularly for companies with significant energy and transportation expenses.

Investors are also assessing what a prolonged energy shock could mean for monetary policy. Persistent inflationary pressure could make it more difficult for central banks to ease policy later in the autumn, even as economic growth across Europe remains fragile.

Earnings Support Fades After Strong Reporting Season

European equities benefited throughout June and July from a strong corporate reporting season that helped propel the STOXX 600 towards record highs.

Strong banking profits, resilient margins among luxury companies and better-than-expected results from energy groups provided investors with company-specific reasons to buy market declines despite broader concerns about economic growth.

That support is now fading as the second-quarter reporting season draws to a close. With fewer positive corporate updates available to underpin valuations, investors are increasingly focused on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

The market may be particularly sensitive to external shocks given that the equity risk premium is close to its lowest level in around 25 years. With earnings catalysts becoming scarcer, trading desks are increasingly dependent on top-down developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, energy prices and the monetary policy outlook.

RBC Capital Markets downgraded Hermes (LSE:RMS) to Sector Perform from Outperform and reduced its price target to €1,700 from €1,900, arguing that the superior growth profile behind the luxury group’s premium valuation is becoming less pronounced.

The brokerage expects Hermes’ revenue and EBIT compound annual growth rates to exceed those of its peers by around 2 percentage points from 2027 onwards. That compares with an estimated advantage of 8 percentage points in 2025.

“The growth premium that justified its valuation premium vs the sector is converging,” analysts led by Piral Dadhania said, highlighting the company’s growing dependence on Leather Goods as a source of expansion.

Leather Goods Expected to Drive Majority of Growth

RBC forecasts that Leather Goods will account for 63% of Hermes’ group revenue growth between fiscal 2025 and 2030, compared with 40% during the preceding five-year period.

The increasing contribution comes as growth across the wider business is expected to moderate. RBC noted that periods when Leather Goods have substantially outperformed Hermes’ other divisions have historically been associated with weaker cyclical demand.

That dynamic could leave competing luxury companies better positioned to benefit if demand across the broader sector recovers.

Pricing Contribution Set to Moderate

RBC also expects the contribution from price increases within Leather Goods to become less significant.

According to the analysts, the division has historically generated a consistent annual volume contribution of approximately 6%, while pricing contributed between 6% and 9% annually during the inflationary period following the Covid pandemic.

From fiscal 2027, RBC expects the pricing contribution to fall to between 3% and 4%. The forecast follows recent management comments indicating that 2027 price increases would be “slightly lower than [this year].”

Unless volumes accelerate, the brokerage expects Leather Goods revenue to grow by approximately 9% to 10% annually from fiscal 2027 onwards. That is broadly consistent with consensus forecasts but would represent a sequential slowdown.

EBIT Margin Seen Holding Near 40%

RBC expects Hermes’ EBIT margin to remain broadly unchanged at around 40% through fiscal 2029.

Although that level would continue to rank among the strongest margins in the luxury industry, analysts see limited scope for further expansion following the significant improvement achieved since the pandemic.

The brokerage also forecasts slightly negative incremental return on invested capital, or ROIC, between fiscal 2026 and 2029. That contrasts with expectations for parts of the wider luxury sector, where recovering margins could drive improving returns on capital.

Valuation Leaves Risk-Reward More Balanced

Hermes currently trades at approximately 32 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings, a valuation RBC believes already incorporates much of the company’s superior growth and profitability.

As a result, analysts described the risk/reward as “more balanced” at current levels.

Within the luxury sector, RBC said it favours companies offering stronger valuation support, including LVMH (EU:MC) and Burberry (LSE:BRBY), or businesses with stronger earnings growth prospects, such as Richemont (USOTC:CFRHF).

The brokerage also reduced its fiscal 2027 and 2028 revenue forecasts for Hermes by 1%, while cutting its earnings-per-share estimates by between 3% and 4%. The EPS revisions partly reflect RBC’s assumption of a higher tax rate in the later forecast years.

BHP Group (LSE:BHP) reported a strong increase in earnings for fiscal 2026, with higher copper prices, improved operating performance and stronger cash generation helping lift profit and providing the mining group with capacity to continue funding its growth pipeline.

Underlying attributable profit increased to $13.2 billion from $10.2 billion a year earlier, representing a rise of around 30%. Underlying EBITDA advanced 27% to $32.9 billion.

Revenue reached $58.8 billion, up 15% year on year, supported by stronger realised prices for copper, iron ore and steelmaking coal alongside improved operational performance.

Investors responded positively to the results, with BHP’s Sydney-listed shares gaining 3.6% to $64.41 by 00:42 GMT on Tuesday.

Copper Drives Stronger Earnings

Copper was the standout contributor to BHP’s improved financial performance, benefiting from higher realised prices during the year.

Underlying EBITDA from the copper division climbed to $18.2 billion from $12.3 billion a year earlier, while revenue increased to $29 billion.

The improvement came despite copper production declining 3% to 1.95 million tonnes, highlighting the significant contribution from stronger commodity pricing.

BHP said its balance sheet and cash generation leave the group with substantial capacity to continue investing in growth opportunities across its portfolio.

Dividend Reaches Four-Year High

BHP declared a final dividend of 99 cents per share, taking the total payout for fiscal 2026 to 172 cents per share.

The full-year distribution amounts to approximately $8.7 billion and represents the miner’s highest annual shareholder payout in four years.

The increased dividend reflects the stronger earnings and cash generation delivered during the period while BHP continues allocating capital towards major development projects.

BHP Forecasts Lower Copper Production in FY27

For fiscal 2027, BHP expects copper production of between 1.65 million and 1.8 million tonnes.

The forecast implies lower output compared with fiscal 2026, with declining ore grades at the company’s Escondida operation expected to weigh on production.

BHP also expects BMA metallurgical coal production of between 18.5 million and 20.5 million tonnes during the new financial year.

Jansen Potash Project Approaches Production

BHP continues to advance its Jansen Stage 1 potash development in Canada, an important component of the group’s longer-term growth strategy and commodity diversification.

The project is now 84% complete and remains on schedule to achieve first production in mid-2027.

Progress at Jansen, combined with BHP’s strong balance sheet and cash generation, provides the miner with additional exposure to potash as it continues investing across commodities expected to benefit from longer-term global demand trends.

UK grocery price inflation continued to ease in August, dropping to its lowest level in almost two years and providing some relief for households still facing elevated living costs, according to the latest figures from Worldpanel by Numerator.

Like-for-like grocery inflation stood at 2.1% during the four weeks to 9 August, down from 2.6% in Worldpanel’s previous monthly report and 3.0% in the report before that.

The figures provide one of the most recent indications of consumer spending and food price trends in Britain ahead of the release of official UK inflation data for July on Wednesday.

Food inflation has remained below some of the higher forecasts made earlier in the year. Intense competition between supermarkets, resistance among consumers to further price increases and more effective hedging by suppliers have helped limit inflationary pressures.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has identified tackling the cost of living as a priority for the new government.

Promotions Account for Almost a Third of Grocery Spending

UK grocery sales increased 2.5% year on year during the latest four-week period, with shoppers continuing to make extensive use of supermarket promotions.

Around 31.3% of grocery sales were made as part of a promotional deal, highlighting the importance of discounts as consumers continue to manage household budgets carefully.

Hot summer weather also influenced shopping patterns. Sales of sun cream jumped 58.4%, while spending on ice cream and sorbet increased 26.1%.

Sainsbury’s Outpaces Tesco as M&S Leads Growth

Over the 12 weeks to 9 August, market leader Tesco (LSE:TSCO) recorded a 1.8% year-on-year increase in sales. However, its share of the grocery market edged lower for a third consecutive Worldpanel report.

Sainsbury’s (LSE:SBRY), the UK’s second-largest supermarket operator, performed more strongly, with sales increasing 3.5% over the period.

Marks & Spencer (LSE:MKS), which is not fully represented within Worldpanel’s data set, remained Britain’s fastest-growing food retailer. Grocery sales increased 15.9% year on year.

Online supermarket Ocado (LSE:OCDO) ranked second for growth, recording a 13.1% increase in sales, while Lidl followed with an 8.5% rise.

Asda remained under pressure, with sales declining 0.2%. Nevertheless, the result represented the supermarket chain’s strongest performance since March 2024.

Lower Inflation Offers Some Relief to UK Households

The continued slowdown in grocery inflation could provide further support for household purchasing power if the trend persists.

However, promotional activity remains an important component of consumer spending, while differences in sales growth between individual supermarkets indicate that competition for market share remains intense.

With official inflation figures due shortly, Worldpanel’s latest data provides an early indication that food price pressures continued to moderate during August.

Oxford BioMedica (LSE:OXB) shares fell 1.3% to 486.5 pence on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the cell and gene therapy specialist’s recently lowered revenue expectations and the implications for its near-term growth.

The shares remain substantially below their 52-week high of 950 pence, despite analysts maintaining broadly constructive longer-term views on the company. Investec, for example, has previously assigned Oxford BioMedica a Buy rating and a 772-pence price target, according to its published ratings history.

The disparity between the current share price and broker targets indicates continued optimism around the longer-term opportunity, although that has yet to provide a significant near-term catalyst.

Revenue Forecast Lowered Following Client Ordering Changes

Investor caution increased after Oxford BioMedica reduced its 2026 revenue guidance on 7 August.

The company now expects revenue of between £180 million and £200 million, down from its previous forecast of £220 million to £240 million.

Oxford BioMedica attributed the downgrade to short-term changes in customer ordering patterns alongside the phased ramp-up of its manufacturing operation in Durham, North Carolina.

The revised forecast has increased the focus on the timing of future client activity and the company’s ability to translate its longer-term growth opportunities into stronger revenue performance.

Durham Expansion Remains Central to US Growth

Oxford BioMedica has been investing in additional US manufacturing capacity as it seeks to expand its position in commercial-scale cell and gene therapy production.

The Durham facility, acquired from Resilience, is intended to strengthen the company’s commercial manufacturing capabilities in the US and provide capacity to meet anticipated growth in customer demand.

Progress at the site is therefore becoming an increasingly important factor for investors, particularly following the guidance reduction. Evidence of a successful production ramp-up could help provide greater confidence in Oxford BioMedica’s future revenue trajectory.

Customer Programme Timing Creates Revenue Volatility

Oxford BioMedica’s financial performance can also be affected by the timing and progression of individual customer programmes.

Projects moving through development and towards commercial manufacturing can result in fluctuations in activity and revenue between reporting periods, making customer ordering patterns an important driver of shorter-term performance.

For now, the shares remain caught between expectations for longer-term growth and more cautious near-term revenue assumptions. While existing analyst targets imply considerable potential upside from current levels, investors may look for evidence that customer ordering is improving and the Durham operation is scaling as expected before taking a more positive view of the stock.