Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices advanced on Monday, supported by growing optimism that the U.S. government shutdown may soon come to an end, potentially boosting demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation. The positive sentiment helped offset ongoing worries about rising global supply levels.

By 07:51 GMT, Brent crude futures climbed 39 cents, or 0.61%, to $64.02 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 43 cents, or 0.72%, to $60.18 per barrel.

The shutdown, which has stretched into its 40th day, appears to be nearing resolution after the Senate moved toward a vote on Sunday to reopen the federal government — a development that lifted global market sentiment.

“The imminent reopening is a welcome boost, restoring pay to 800,000 federal workers and restarting vital programs that will lift consumer confidence, activity and spending,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

“This should also help improve risk sentiment across markets and cause a rebound in WTI prices toward $62 a barrel,” he added.

While the political progress has brightened the outlook for energy demand, analysts remain cautious about potential fallout from flight cancellations, which could temporarily weigh on U.S. jet fuel consumption. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 flights and delayed over 10,200 on Sunday — the worst day of travel disruptions since the start of the shutdown.

Both Brent and WTI posted losses of about 2% last week, marking their second straight weekly decline, as traders fretted over a possible supply glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) recently agreed to a modest output increase in December, while pausing further hikes during the first quarter to prevent an oversupply situation.

In the U.S., crude stockpiles have continued to rise, and the volume of oil stored on ships in Asian waters has nearly doubled in recent weeks. The buildup follows tighter Western sanctions, which have restricted oil imports to China and India, while limited import quotas have curbed demand among independent Chinese refiners.

Meanwhile, Indian refiners are increasingly sourcing crude from the Middle East and the Americas to offset the loss of Russian barrels under sanctions.

Russian producer Lukoil is also facing heightened disruption as the U.S. deadline for companies to end business ties with the firm approaches on November 21, after a planned sale to Swiss trader Gunvor fell through.

Adding to oversupply concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to grant Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil imports could bring more barrels into the global market, according to Sycamore.

Gold prices climbed sharply in Asian trading on Monday, regaining the $4,000 per ounce level as a softer U.S. dollar and renewed optimism about an end to the government shutdown lifted investor sentiment.

The precious metal also benefited from continued speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December, though uncertainty remains high due to limited economic data amid the ongoing shutdown.

By 23:43 ET (04:43 GMT), spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,053.72 per ounce, while December gold futures gained 1.3% to $4,062.45 per ounce.

Metals Rally on Softer Dollar and Rate Cut Bets

Gold and other precious metals extended their gains as the U.S. dollar weakened, continuing a mild downtrend from last week. Traders maintained expectations that the Fed could trim rates by 25 basis points in December, a view reinforced by recent signs of strain in the U.S. labor market.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that October saw the highest number of layoffs in nearly two decades, fueling concerns about economic momentum and prompting markets to price in a 61.9% probability of a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The broader metals complex also moved higher alongside gold. Spot platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,571.92 per ounce, while spot silver advanced 1.8% to $49.22 per ounce.

Markets Cheer Progress Toward Ending U.S. Shutdown

Investor sentiment was further buoyed by political developments in Washington, where the U.S. Senate voted 60–40 to advance a spending bill aimed at reopening the federal government after its longest shutdown in history.

The measure represents a breakthrough after weeks of partisan gridlock and paves the way for a final vote expected in the coming days. A resolution would not only restore federal operations but also resume the release of key U.S. economic data, giving markets fresh insight into the health of the economy.

With the dollar under pressure and hopes rising for a political compromise, gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty gained renewed strength, pushing prices solidly above the symbolic $4,000 threshold.

The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday, pressured by mounting optimism that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown may soon be resolved, prompting investors to shift away from the safe-haven currency.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, fell 0.1% to 99.370, extending the mild losses recorded last week.

Shutdown Nearing Resolution?

Market sentiment improved sharply after the U.S. Senate voted to advance a funding bill that would keep the government open through January, a move seen as the first real step toward ending the 40-day shutdown, which has taken a notable economic toll.

On prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the shutdown ending before November 15 surged to 92%, reflecting renewed confidence among investors.

Economic indicators, however, continue to show strain. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, while White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned that the U.S. economy could contract in the fourth quarter if the deadlock persists.

“While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed,” said analysts at ING in a note.

They added, “Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the U.S. economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend. At the same time, Friday’s release of poor US consumer sentiment data was read as a dollar negative. Progress to end the shutdown may be felt more by risk-sensitive FX cross rates than the dollar.”

Euro Edges Higher

The euro strengthened modestly, with EUR/USD up 0.1% to 1.1579, supported by comments from European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, who said in an interview that ECB interest rates are currently at the appropriate level, barring major shifts in the economic outlook. His remarks suggested that further rate cuts are unlikely in the short term.

De Guindos added that the ECB must remain “very prudent and cautious” in setting rates, even as uncertainty has eased in recent months following the EU–U.S. trade deal.

The British pound also inched higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.1% to 1.3178 ahead of a week packed with key U.K. economic data releases.

“We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced,” ING analysts said. “The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome. Feeding into the BoE story will be tomorrow’s release of the September wage data. This is expected to slow further and give the BoE greater confidence that inflation is less persistent than first thought.”

Yen Weakens Following Fiscal Policy Remarks

In Asia, the Japanese yen slipped, with USD/JPY rising 0.4% to 153.98, after comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who announced plans to set a new multi-year fiscal target that would allow more flexible government spending, signaling a shift away from Japan’s prior focus on fiscal consolidation.

Chinese Yuan Steady; Antipodean Currencies Gain

The Chinese yuan was relatively stable, with USD/CNY down 0.1% to 7.1173, after data showed that consumer price inflation exceeded expectations in October, while producer price inflation contracted at a slower-than-anticipated pace.

Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained ground on improved risk sentiment. The AUD/USD climbed 0.6% to 0.6532, and the NZD/USD advanced 0.3% to 0.5642, as investors shifted toward higher-yielding assets amid hopes of an imminent U.S. government reopening.

U.S. stock futures were up on Monday after the Senate voted to end ending the long-lasting government shutdown. This also prompted gains for gold and crude oil. The COP30 climate conference begins later in the session, Pfizer has won the bidding war for obesity drug developer Metsera.

Shutdown breakthrough sparks optimism

Global markets started the week on a strong footing after the U.S. Senate voted to advance a bill aimed at ending the country’s longest-ever government shutdown. The move boosted sentiment across asset classes, with U.S. stock futures, gold, and crude oil all trading higher early Monday.

Lawmakers voted 60–40 late Sunday to move forward with a spending bill that would fund the federal government through January 30, 2026. The bipartisan effort saw eight Democratic senators backing a Republican proposal that includes commitments to restore jobs for furloughed workers and extend select healthcare subsidies. The bill will now face a final Senate vote, followed by approval from the House of Representatives before it can be signed into law by President Donald Trump.

The vote marks significant progress toward resolving a shutdown that has entered its 40th day, the 15th government closure since 1981 and the second under Trump’s presidency, with estimates suggesting tens of billions in lost GDP.

Market reaction

At 03:00 ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%, and Dow Jones rose 0.2%, as investors welcomed the potential reopening of the federal government. The news follows a tough week for Wall Street, with the NASDAQ Composite down 3%, the S&P 500 falling 1.6%, and the Dow losing 1.2%.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment dropped to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November as prolonged uncertainty dampened confidence. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned that if the shutdown persisted, the U.S. economy could contract in Q4.

COP30 summit opens in Brazil

The COP30 climate summit begins Monday in Belém, Brazil, marking 30 years since international climate talks began, leading to the 1992 U.N. Climate Treaty. The event takes place at the mouth of the Amazon River—a symbolic choice emphasizing the urgency of rainforest protection.

The conference is expected to be highly contentious, as the Trump administration has opted not to send senior officials and plans to withdraw from the treaty, a move that has sparked criticism from environmental groups.

Pfizer clinches $10B Metsera acquisition

In corporate news, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has won the bidding war for Metsera, an obesity-drug developer, in a $10 billion deal, defeating Danish rival Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO). Metsera accepted Pfizer’s improved offer on Friday, citing potential antitrust hurdles in Novo’s bid.

The acquisition gives Pfizer a long-awaited entry into the fast-growing obesity treatment market, which analysts predict could reach $150 billion by the next decade. The win is a setback for Novo Nordisk, which has been locked in fierce competition with Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) for market leadership.

Commodities rise: gold and oil rebound

Gold surged above $4,000 an ounce, gaining 1.9% to $4,077.00, as a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December supported demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices also advanced, buoyed by optimism that an end to the shutdown could lift U.S. demand. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $64.11 a barrel, while WTI gained 0.9% to $60.28. Both benchmarks fell around 2% last week, their second consecutive decline, after OPEC+ decided to slightly raise production in December but pause further increases in early 2026 to avoid oversupply.

European markets opened the week in positive territory, following a global upswing after the U.S. Senate approved a key measure to end the nation’s longest-ever government shutdown.

By 08:15 GMT, Germany’s DAX index was up 1.5%, France’s CAC 40 gained 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.6%, reflecting broad investor optimism.

Optimism driven by U.S. shutdown progress

Investor sentiment strengthened after the U.S. Senate voted 60–40 to advance a spending bill for consideration, following a bipartisan agreement between eight Democratic senators and Republican leaders to reopen the federal government. The potential breakthrough eased concerns over the prolonged shutdown, which reached its 40th day on Sunday and had disrupted key sectors, including air travel. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned that if the shutdown persisted, the U.S. economy could contract in Q4, raising global growth concerns.

COP30 Summit begins in Brazil

Meanwhile, the COP30 global climate summit opened Monday in Brazil, marking 30 years since the start of global climate negotiations that led to the 1992 U.N. climate treaty. The event is expected to be contentious, particularly after the Trump administration’s decision not to send senior representatives and to withdraw from the accord altogether.

Salzgitter cuts guidance; Hannover Re raises forecast

In corporate updates, German steelmaker Salzgitter (TG:SZG) lowered its full-year guidance for the second time in 2025, citing persistent market weakness despite recent price stabilization. In contrast, reinsurer Hannover Re (BIT:1HANN) raised its earnings forecast after reporting a 7.7% increase in nine-month group net income.

In the UK, Diageo (LSE:DGE) confirmed the appointment of Sir Dave Lewis as CEO effective January 1, 2026. Lewis, currently chair of Haleon (LSE:HLN), previously led Tesco (LSE:TSCO) from 2014 to 2020 and held senior roles at Unilever (LSE:ULVR) for nearly three decades.

Oil prices edge higher

Crude prices advanced Monday amid optimism that the end of the U.S. shutdown could lift demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $64.14 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.9% to $60.31. Both benchmarks fell about 2% last week, marking a second consecutive weekly loss after OPEC+ agreed to modestly increase output in December while pausing additional hikes in early 2026 to avoid oversupply.

Diageo (LSE:DGE) has announced the appointment of Sir Dave Lewis as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Lewis brings a wealth of experience from leading global consumer goods companies, positioning him to steer Diageo through evolving market conditions while driving growth and enhancing shareholder value.

Previously, Lewis served as CEO of Tesco and held senior leadership roles at Unilever, where he developed deep expertise in brand strategy, global operations, and consumer engagement. He currently serves on the boards of Haleon and PepsiCo, further underscoring his strong credentials in the fast-moving consumer goods sector. His appointment marks a pivotal step in Diageo’s strategic leadership transition as the company continues to focus on sustainable growth and market innovation.

Financially, Diageo’s outlook remains supported by steady revenue growth and operational efficiency, even as profitability and cash flow pressures persist. Technical analysis currently signals a bearish trend, though valuation metrics remain favorable, with a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield adding to its long-term investment appeal.

More about Diageo

Diageo is a global leader in beverage alcohol, with an extensive portfolio spanning spirits and beer brands, including Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Baileys, Tanqueray, and Guinness. Operating in nearly 180 countries, the company is dual-listed on the London and New York Stock Exchanges. Diageo continues to focus on premiumization, sustainability, and innovation as key pillars of its global growth strategy.

Kainos Group plc (LSE:KNOS) has reported solid first-half results for 2025, with revenue rising 7% to £196.1 million, supported by broad-based growth across all divisions. Although adjusted pre-tax profit declined due to higher operating costs, the company reaffirmed its full-year profit expectations and announced a £30 million share buyback program to enhance shareholder returns.

The company’s Workday Products division delivered standout performance, achieving a 19% increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and surpassing the $100 million ARR milestone for the first time. The Digital Services division also recorded substantial gains, particularly within the healthcare sector, while the acquisition of Davis Pier further strengthened Kainos’s North American footprint. In parallel, its growing AI business continues to demonstrate leadership in providing AI-driven solutions for the public sector.

Financially, Kainos Group maintains a strong balance sheet and profitability, which underpin its stable growth trajectory. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, though the company’s high price-to-earnings ratio implies a premium valuation, slightly moderating near-term upside potential.

More about Kainos Group plc

Kainos Group plc is a UK-based IT solutions provider specializing in Digital Services, Workday Services, and Workday Products. The company delivers cutting-edge technology solutions across sectors such as healthcare, public sector, and enterprise markets, with a strong focus on AI innovation and global expansion. Through its combination of technical expertise and strategic acquisitions, Kainos continues to strengthen its position as a leader in digital transformation and enterprise software solutions.

Chemring Group PLC (LSE:CHG) has reported strong financial results for fiscal year 2025, with adjusted operating profit in line with analyst expectations and a continued positive growth trajectory. The company strengthened its position through major contract wins, boosting its order book to £1.3 billion, and announced plans to explore strategic options for its Alloy Surfaces business, which will now be classified as a discontinued operation.

In addition, Chemring’s acquisition of Landguard Group is set to expand capabilities within its Roke business, enhancing its expertise in data, sensors, and defense technology. However, performance within the Sensors & Information division has been partially constrained by delayed UK government orders, a factor the company continues to monitor closely. Despite these challenges, Chemring remains well positioned in global defense markets, supported by steady demand for its advanced defense and countermeasure systems.

The company’s strong financial performance and positive earnings momentum underpin a constructive outlook, backed by its expanding order book and strategic investments. Nonetheless, a high price-to-earnings ratio, combined with cash flow pressures and isolated sector challenges, introduces a degree of caution for investors.

More about Chemring Group PLC

Chemring Group PLC is a UK-based defense technology company specializing in energetic materials, countermeasures, and sensor and information systems. Serving clients across the defense, government, and law enforcement sectors, Chemring provides technology-driven solutions that enhance operational effectiveness and safety. With a global customer base and an emphasis on innovation, the company continues to play a vital role in advancing modern defense capabilities worldwide.

Supermarket Income REIT plc (LSE:SUPR) has announced the completion of £40.9 million in new property acquisitions, further strengthening its portfolio and enhancing both earnings and weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT). The assets include a Tesco supermarket in Northern Ireland and 10 Sainsbury’s convenience stores located across the UK, representing the company’s first move into the convenience grocery segment.

These acquisitions deliver a net initial yield of 6.4% and align with Supermarket Income REIT’s capital redeployment strategy following the monetization of its joint venture with Blue Owl Capital. The company continues to focus on unlocking value in both large-format supermarkets and smaller convenience retail assets, supporting its mission to generate sustainable, inflation-linked returns.

Financially, Supermarket Income REIT remains on solid footing, backed by strong profitability, a healthy balance sheet, and an attractive valuation characterized by a moderate P/E ratio and a high dividend yield. While technical indicators currently point to a neutral trend, the company’s fundamentals and income profile support a stable long-term outlook.

More about Supermarket Income REIT Plc

Supermarket Income REIT plc is a FTSE 250-listed company on both the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The firm invests in grocery properties critical to national food infrastructure, primarily focusing on omnichannel supermarkets across the UK and Europe. Its assets are let to major operators such as Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and other leading chains, providing secure, inflation-linked rental income and long-term capital growth potential.

SolGold (LSE:SOLG) has announced positive drilling results from the Tandayama-América deposit, part of its flagship Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador. The findings reveal significant near-surface copper-gold mineralization, supporting the potential for open-pit mining and marking a key step forward in the project’s development strategy.

These results enhance SolGold’s strategic flexibility, enabling opportunities for phased project development and improved economic returns. The discovery also strengthens the company’s long-term vision of establishing a major copper-gold mining district in Ecuador, positioning Cascabel as a cornerstone asset in that growth plan.

Despite the operational progress, SolGold continues to face financial headwinds, with ongoing losses and negative cash flows weighing on its overall outlook. However, recent strategic investments and governance enhancements provide some optimism for stabilization and future funding opportunities.

More about SolGold

SolGold plc is an exploration and development company focused on copper and gold assets, with its primary operations centered on the Cascabel Project in northern Ecuador. The project includes both the world-class Alpala underground deposit and the Tandayama-América deposit, which together represent one of the most significant undeveloped copper-gold resources globally. SolGold aims to advance these assets into production while contributing to Ecuador’s emergence as a leading destination for responsible mineral development.