Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures were modestly higher at the start of the week, as investors prepared for a heavy run of corporate earnings and closely watched economic releases that had been delayed. Semiconductor group Onsemi is among the first major names due to report on Monday, while Japanese equities climbed after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a decisive election victory.

Futures edge higher

Wall Street futures pointed slightly upward early Monday ahead of a week packed with earnings updates and key macro data. By 03:43 ET, Dow futures were up 87 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had added 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were ahead by 13 points, also 0.1%.

The move followed a strong finish to last week, when U.S. stocks rebounded from earlier losses driven by concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt parts of the software sector. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 50,000 mark for the first time, while the S&P 500 gained nearly 2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced around 2.2%.

Not all mega-cap stocks participated in the rally. Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fell 5.6% as investors reacted cautiously to signals that the company plans to significantly ramp up spending on AI. Other large technology groups, including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), have also outlined aggressive investment plans to remain competitive in AI, though questions persist over how quickly these investments will deliver sustainable returns.

ON Semi to report

Earnings attention on Monday turns to ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON), which is set to release quarterly results after the closing bell. The chipmaker previously issued fourth-quarter revenue and profit guidance broadly in line with market expectations.

Demand for ON Semi’s power management solutions used in AI data centres has helped offset softer conditions in the automotive sector, where weaker electric vehicle demand in North America and Europe has reduced spending on silicon carbide components.

Consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg suggest adjusted earnings per share of $0.63 on revenue of $1.53 billion.

Later in the week, investors will also hear from a number of other technology-focused companies, including Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT).

Japan PM scores big win

Outside the U.S., Asian markets advanced after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a major victory in a snap election held over the weekend. The vote came just 110 days after Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister, making the gamble a high-stakes one.

According to reports, her Liberal Democratic Party won such strong support that it achieved a rare supermajority in the lower house of parliament. The outcome appears to clear the way for Takaichi to pursue plans for increased government spending and tax cuts, supported by what observers see as a stable political environment.

“Calm may be on the way for Japan’s markets now the election is out of the way,” said Thomas Mathews, Head of Asia Pacific Markets at Capital Economics. He added that a recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds, which had unsettled global markets, is unlikely to persist, while the yen is expected to strengthen.

Gold rises

Gold prices moved higher in European trading, with silver also advancing, following sharp swings in precious metals markets last week. Those moves were driven by a mix of subdued safe-haven demand, profit-taking and uncertainty around the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

Investors are now focused on several key U.S. economic indicators due this week, notably nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index inflation data. Both releases are closely watched by the Federal Reserve when assessing the path for interest rates.

Some haven demand eased after signs of progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, with both sides indicating a willingness to continue discussions on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Oil slips

Oil prices declined as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. Comments from Washington and Tehran suggesting that indirect nuclear negotiations will continue helped reduce fears of an imminent escalation in the Middle East.

A firm U.S. dollar ahead of major economic data releases also pressured crude prices, which had already fallen about 2% last week. Investors are also awaiting fresh economic data from China, the world’s largest oil importer.

Brent futures were last down 1.1% at $67.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 1.0% to $62.92 a barrel.

The U.S. and Iran said over the weekend that talks held in Oman on Friday were constructive and would continue, helping to temper concerns of military conflict after earlier U.S. naval deployments to the region.

UK equities moved higher at the start of the week, tracking gains across European markets, while sterling eased slightly against the U.S. dollar in early trading.

By 08:12 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.4%, while the pound slipped 0.07% versus the dollar to 1.3603. European markets also posted solid gains, with Germany’s DAX rising 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 adding 0.4%.

UK market round-up

Plus500 Ltd (LSE:PLUS) was in focus after the trading platform said it expects its 2026 performance to come in ahead of market expectations, following stronger-than-anticipated results for 2025. Growth was supported by institutional partnerships linked to U.S. prediction markets and increasing exposure to higher-value customers. The group reported full-year revenue of $792.4 million, up 3% year on year, while net profit also increased 3% to $281.3 million. Basic earnings per share rose 10% to $3.93 from $3.56.

In the banking sector, NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) announced an agreement to acquire wealth manager Evelyn Partners for £2.7 billion. The deal will merge Evelyn’s £69 billion of assets under management with NatWest’s existing £59 billion, creating a combined £127 billion in assets under management and administration. NatWest also unveiled a £750 million share buyback alongside the transaction.

Elsewhere, Phoenix Global Mining Ltd (LSE:PXC) confirmed the immediate suspension of Executive Chairman Marcus Edwards-Jones and Chief Financial Officer Richard Wilkins. The board is investigating allegations relating to their recent conduct and historic payments made to Lloyd Edwards-Jones S.A.S., the company’s former corporate finance adviser.

In the advertising sector, WPP is reportedly preparing to combine its three main creative agencies under a single brand, according to the Financial Times, as part of a wider effort to simplify its operating structure.

On the regulatory front, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said it plans to publish more comprehensive trading data for London-listed shares in a bid to address what it sees as significant under-reporting of market liquidity. The regulator is considering collecting data from all trading venues, including exchanges, dark pools and off-exchange platforms, to present a fuller picture of UK market activity. Simon Walls, the FCA’s interim director of markets, told the Financial Times that current liquidity measures can be misleading because they rely heavily on London Stock Exchange order book data while excluding a substantial volume of trading activity elsewhere.

European equities pushed higher on Friday, regaining ground after ending the previous session largely in negative territory.

Germany’s DAX advanced about 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2% and France’s CAC 40 edged 0.1% higher as investors weighed fresh economic data alongside company-specific news.

On the macro front, figures from Destatis showed German industrial production fell sharply in December, sliding 1.9% month on month after a 0.2% increase in November. The decline was significantly steeper than expectations for a modest 0.2% drop. On an annual basis, output contracted by 0.6%, reversing a 0.5% rise recorded the previous month.

In France, data from the customs office indicated a widening trade gap at the end of the year. The country’s foreign trade deficit increased to €4.8 billion in December from €4.0 billion in November, exceeding forecasts for a shortfall of around €4.1 billion, as imports outpaced exports.

At the stock level, Vinci (EU:DG) shares jumped after the infrastructure and construction group reported full-year results that exceeded market expectations. Vinci posted net income attributable to shareholders of €4.90 billion for 2025, or €8.65 per share, up from €4.86 billion, or €8.43 per share, a year earlier.

By contrast, Metlen Energy & Metals (LSE:MTLN) came under heavy pressure after warning that its 2025 EBITDA is now expected to be around 25% lower than previously targeted, despite what it described as solid performance across its core business divisions.

European stock markets were mostly weaker on Friday, with investors continuing to digest a heavy run of corporate results as a packed week—featuring major central bank decisions—neared its end. By mid-morning, Germany’s DAX was up 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.3% and the UK’s FTSE 100 eased 0.2%.

Earnings remained the main focus across the region, with updates from several large-cap names shaping sentiment. Shares in Stellantis (BIT:STLAM) dropped sharply after the carmaker announced it expects to book around €22.2 billion in charges as it scales back its electric vehicle strategy in response to softer demand. The group said the bulk of the write-downs relate to revisions to its product roadmap, reflecting much lower assumptions for EV sales. Following the reset, Stellantis now anticipates a net loss of €19–21 billion in the second half of 2025 and confirmed that dividend payments will be suspended.

Elsewhere in the banking sector, Société Générale (EU:GLE) lifted its profitability target for the year after reporting a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, supported by higher revenues and tighter cost control. In Italy, utility group Enel (BIT:ENEL) said its 2025 ordinary net income came in slightly above the top end of guidance at €6.90 billion, ahead of a capital markets day scheduled for later this month.

Other notable movers included weight-loss drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), whose shares rose after the US Food and Drug Administration warned it could take action against “illegal copycat drugs.” In the mining sector, Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN) confirmed late Thursday that they had ended discussions over a potential megamerger that would have created the world’s largest mining company.

On the macro front, fresh data underlined the uneven nature of Germany’s economic recovery. Exports jumped 4.0% month on month in December, well ahead of expectations for a 1% rise, but industrial production disappointed, falling 1.9% over the same period. In the UK, figures from mortgage lender Halifax showed house prices rose 0.7% in January and were 1.0% higher than a year earlier.

Central banks were also in focus, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher on Friday but remained on track for their first weekly decline in almost two months. Brent crude rose 1.3% to $68.43 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to $64.20. Despite the rebound, Brent was heading for a weekly loss of 3.3% and WTI for a drop of 1.8%, as traders weighed the outcome of US-Iran talks scheduled for later in the day.

Markets have been hopeful that discussions between Washington and Tehran could help ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the risk of wider conflict. That optimism has led investors to strip some geopolitical risk premium out of crude prices this week, despite Iran’s status as a major oil producer and its proximity to the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

UK equities opened lower on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, while sterling strengthened against the dollar and European markets weakened on the back of disappointing earnings. The FTSE 100 was down around 0.5% by mid-morning, while the pound rose 0.2% to roughly $1.357. Across Europe, the STOXX 600 slipped 0.2%, Germany’s DAX edged up 0.1%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.7%, reflecting uneven regional sentiment.

Elsewhere in Europe, shares in Stellantis NV plunged more than 18% after the carmaker disclosed around €22.2bn of charges for the second half of 2025, adding to broader pressure on equity markets.

In UK corporate news, Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) confirmed it is no longer considering a merger or business combination with Glencore (LSE:GLEN). The decision brings an end to speculation over a potential tie-up as major miners position themselves for strategic shifts in 2026. Analysts note that, even without a deal, the sector is expected to pursue portfolio reshaping and other strategic moves as critical minerals such as copper, gold and lithium take on greater importance in national security and energy transition strategies.

Shares in Victrex (LSE:VCT) fell more than 7% after the company reported a 6% year-on-year decline in first-quarter revenue. Victrex posted revenue of £62.4m for the three months to 31 December 2025, compared with £66.6m a year earlier. Sales volumes fell 4% to 858 tonnes, while average selling prices eased 2% to £73 per kilogram, reflecting softer demand across several end markets.

HgCapital Trust (LSE:HGT) reported a net asset value per share of 561.9p at 31 December 2025, delivering a 2.2% return for the fourth quarter. The trust said its portfolio companies achieved last-twelve-months revenue growth of 17% and EBITDA growth of 20% as of the end of November, with the EBITDA margin improving slightly to 34%.

On the macro front, the Bank of England voted 5–4 on Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged, striking a more dovish tone that has shifted some market expectations toward a possible rate cut as early as March, although consensus still points to the second quarter. Markets are finding it difficult to fully price in two 25 basis point cuts this year, with political uncertainty also in focus. Analysts at ING said sterling could come under pressure, with EUR/GBP supported around the 0.8670–0.8680 area and a bias toward 0.88 over the coming month.

European equity markets showed mixed performance on Thursday as investors assessed overnight declines on Wall Street alongside a fresh wave of corporate earnings releases, while attention remained fixed on upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

At 08:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX index slipped 0.2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.6%.

Corporate results dominate market focus

Global investor sentiment has been pressured by growing concerns over the escalating costs tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, which contributed to a sharp sell-off in U.S. technology shares overnight and losses across major Asian markets earlier in the day.

Alphabet signalled late Wednesday that its capital expenditure could potentially double this year, reflecting another significant increase in spending by Google’s parent company as it expands investment to overcome computing capacity limitations and strengthen its position in the AI sector.

Meanwhile, European investors continued reviewing earnings from several major regional corporations.

Energy giant Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported adjusted earnings of $3.26 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a decline from $3.7 billion recorded a year earlier and marking the company’s weakest quarterly performance in nearly five years.

Danish shipping group Maersk (TG:DP4A) announced fourth-quarter operating profit broadly aligned with market expectations but warned that declining freight rates, combined with ongoing industry pressures, could negatively impact earnings in 2026.

BNP Paribas (EU:BNP) lifted its profitability targets for 2028 after fourth-quarter profit climbed 28%, with France’s largest bank expecting structural cost savings and a supportive interest rate environment to accelerate future earnings expansion.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (LSE:BVA) reported net profit of €2.53 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a 4% increase from €2.43 billion a year earlier, supported by loan growth in Spain and Mexico that helped offset higher credit provisions.

Siemens Healthineers (TG:SIE) posted strong first-quarter results, with robust demand for imaging technology and cancer treatment equipment helping to offset weaker performance in its diagnostics division and the impact of currency fluctuations.

ECB and BOE policy decisions in focus

Outside the corporate sphere, German industrial orders increased 7.8% in December compared with the previous month, significantly outperforming expectations for a 2.2% decline.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% later in the day, marking a fifth consecutive meeting without a rate adjustment. However, the sharp decline in eurozone inflation during January may present new challenges for policymakers.

Recent data showed eurozone consumer price inflation slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% in December.

Similarly, the Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.75% later in the session, with analysts pointing to persistent inflation risks despite signs of softening labour market conditions.

Oil prices fall as U.S.-Iran talks ease supply fears

Crude oil prices dropped sharply on Thursday after the United States and Iran agreed to hold diplomatic talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns about potential military escalation that could disrupt energy supply in the region.

Brent crude futures for April delivery fell 1.5% to $68.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.6% to $64.10 per barrel.

Both oil benchmarks had climbed roughly 3% on Wednesday amid concerns that negotiations between the United States and Iran might collapse.

Despite the planned discussions, uncertainty remains, with concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could still proceed with previously issued threats to strike Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, potentially triggering broader instability in the region.

European equity markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors digested the latest Eurozone inflation figures and looked ahead to key central bank decisions.

Fresh data showed that inflation in the euro area slipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in January, helped by lower energy prices and a firmer euro. According to flash estimates from Eurostat, the harmonized index of consumer prices rose 1.7% year on year last month, in line with expectations and down from 2.0% in December.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, edged down slightly to 2.2% from 2.3% in the previous month.

Government bond yields across the region eased modestly after surveys indicated that economic momentum in the Eurozone weakened for a second straight month in January. Final data from S&P Global showed that private sector activity expanded at its slowest pace since September, weighed down by softer growth in services.

The final composite output index came in at 51.3 in January, below both the preliminary estimate and December’s reading of 51.5. While the index remains above the 50 mark—signaling expansion—it points to more subdued growth, albeit for a thirteenth consecutive month.

Attention now turns to central bank meetings on Thursday. The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with markets focusing on its assessment of the growth and inflation outlook. The Bank of England is also anticipated to leave rates on hold, with any revisions to its economic forecasts likely to be limited.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX was down 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.9% and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.2%.

On the corporate front, Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) slid sharply in Copenhagen after CEO Mike Doustdar pointed to headwinds from significantly lower U.S. pricing for its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy. Shares in Swiss drugmaker Novartis (NYSE:NVS) also moved lower after the company warned of a decline in profits this year.

Banco Santander (LSE:SAN) fell after the Spanish lender agreed to acquire Webster Financial Corp. in a $12 billion transaction. French bank Credit Agricole (EU:ACA) also dropped following a 39% fall in fourth-quarter profit.

Germany’s Infineon Technologies (TG:IFX) traded lower after announcing plans to step up investment in data-center technology to meet rising demand for artificial intelligence solutions.

On the upside, UK pharmaceutical group GSK (LSE:GSK) advanced after reporting stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter profits. Beazley (LSE:BEZ) shares surged after Zurich Insurance Group reached an agreement in principle on the key financial terms of a potential cash offer for the London-based specialty insurer.