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What has Jefferies identified in the latest iPhone sales data?

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee has reported further signs of weaker demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, citing changes in delivery availability, resale pricing and component orders.

In a Monday research note, Lee said the brokerage’s monitoring continued to indicate subdued demand for the two premium models.

The assessment contrasts with reported growth in overall iPhone sales in China, which Jefferies believes was partly supported by discounted sales of older devices.

Why are shorter delivery times significant?

Jefferies reported that delivery times for both iPhone 18 Pro models in China have declined to zero days.

The comparable waiting periods for the previous generation were six days for the Pro and 25 days for the Pro Max.

Delivery times in Japan have also shortened substantially year on year.

However, Jefferies noted that US delivery times for the Pro Max have increased, indicating that availability trends differ between markets.

Shorter lead times can reflect reduced demand, increased supply or a combination of the two factors.

What has happened to iPhone pricing in China?

Chinese online retailer PDD introduced discounts of 6% for the iPhone 18 Pro and 9% for the Pro Max on 16 October.

Jefferies also found that resale prices for the Pro models had moved below retail prices from 29 September.

By comparison, the equivalent devices last year were trading at premiums of between 1% and 6%.

The brokerage views these pricing changes as additional evidence that demand for the latest premium models may be below earlier expectations.

Are Apple’s suppliers receiving fewer orders?

Jefferies said industry contacts have reported reductions of approximately 10% to 15% in orders for certain iPhone components, including 2-nanometre chips.

The reported change in final assembly orders has been smaller, with some suppliers indicating a net reduction of around 2 million devices.

The difference suggests that the full effect of component order adjustments on finished-device production remains uncertain.

“We will continue to monitor supply chain feedback, but do believe further order cuts are possible if weak demand continues,” Lee wrote.

Apple has not confirmed the reported reductions in the information cited by Jefferies.

Why do overall iPhone sales figures present a different picture?

Reported iPhone sales volumes in China increased by more than 40% year on year during the first two weeks after shipments began.

That rate slowed to approximately 8% in early October.

Jefferies believes discounted sales of remaining iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max inventory contributed to the initial increase.

As a result, the brokerage argues that overall iPhone sales growth should not be interpreted as a direct measure of demand for the iPhone 18 Pro range.

What is the outlook for Apple’s foldable Duo?

Apple’s foldable Duo recorded delivery lead times exceeding 90 days after pre-orders began on 16 October.

Jefferies estimates that this corresponds to a maximum of approximately 6 million to 7 million shipments during 2026, consistent with market expectations.

The extended waiting period differs from the immediate availability reported for the iPhone 18 Pro models in China.

Jefferies will continue monitoring supply chain information, retail pricing and delivery times to assess whether Apple makes further adjustments to production.

Evercore strategists have identified a series of financial market indicators that could signal a correction in artificial intelligence-related stocks following last week’s technology sector selloff.

In a research note published on Sunday, a team led by Julian Emanuel said the recent declines marked the beginning of a price discovery phase for AI investments, with investors reassessing valuations, borrowing costs and the financial requirements of large-scale infrastructure development.

The firm identified four indicators that could signal a transition from the current bull market into a correction, or potentially a bear market if economic conditions deteriorate into recession.

Despite the identified risks, Evercore reiterated its year-end 2026 target of 7,750 for the S&P 500.

Credit Spreads and Earnings Revisions Among Key Indicators

Evercore highlighted four market developments that it believes warrant close attention as investors evaluate the sustainability of the AI-related equity rally.

The first is an increase in investment-grade credit default swap (CDS) spreads above their March peak of 68.33.

The second is a rise in high-yield CDS spreads beyond their previous high of 411.04.

CDS spreads reflect the cost of obtaining protection against a borrower’s default. An increase generally indicates that market participants are demanding greater compensation for credit risk.

The third indicator is a reversal in the upward trend of analysts’ earnings-per-share estimates, which could suggest that expectations for corporate profitability are weakening.

The fourth is a rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury securities above 5.62%.

According to Evercore, these indicators could help determine whether recent market weakness remains concentrated in technology stocks or develops into a broader reassessment of financial asset valuations.

US Treasury Yield of 5.62% Identified as Fiscal Warning Level

Evercore’s Washington policy team said a 10-year Treasury yield above 5.62% could increase concerns about US fiscal conditions and government borrowing costs.

The strategists noted that the recent yield peak of 5.36% provided a reference point for assessing further increases.

They described 5.62% as “a reasonable level at which alarm bells would be expected to ring.”

The team referred to such a development as a potential “fiscal alarm bell.”

Higher government bond yields can influence borrowing costs across the economy, including corporate debt financing and household lending.

They can also affect equity valuations by increasing the discount rates applied to expected future earnings.

This relationship is particularly relevant for growth-oriented technology companies, where a substantial proportion of market valuations may depend on profits expected several years into the future.

Evercore Questions Assumptions Behind AI Debt Expansion

The strategists also examined the financing requirements associated with the expansion of AI infrastructure.

Evercore referred to an estimated $1.3 trillion in investment by 2027, including spending on data centres, computing capacity and related infrastructure.

The firm questioned the assumption that major technology companies, often described as hyperscalers, could continue issuing debt regardless of market conditions, even if their free cash flow became negative.

Evercore characterised that assumption as “pure fantasy.”

The strategists argued that borrowing costs, investor demand and access to capital markets remain important constraints on corporate investment plans.

Their analysis suggests that the increasing use of debt to finance AI infrastructure could make the sector more sensitive to changes in credit conditions.

Previous Market Cycles Provide Historical Comparisons

Evercore compared current investor expectations with several previous periods of financial market instability.

These included the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2018 equity market decline associated with trade tensions and Federal Reserve rate increases, and the bursting of Japan’s asset price bubble in 1989.

The firm also referenced the prolonged period of economic stagnation that followed Japan’s market downturn.

“Last week reaffirmed the ‘this time is no different’ notion amid a perfect storm for the AI bull market, highlighting dividing lines that, if crossed, could tip the bull market into correction, or even bear market,” Emanuel’s team wrote.

The comparisons were used to illustrate the potential consequences of changes in market expectations and financing conditions.

They do not establish that the current AI investment cycle will follow the same pattern as those earlier episodes.

Evercore Maintains AI Equity Exposure With Risk Hedges

Although Evercore identified several potential warning signals, the firm maintained its recommendation to retain exposure to selected AI-related stocks while the specified market thresholds remain unbreached.

The strategists referred to their preferred group of companies as the “AI class of 2026.”

They also recommended maintaining hedges against potential volatility surrounding the November 3 US midterm elections.

The suggested strategies included exposure to negative-beta stocks, S&P 500 straddles and December Nasdaq-100 put spread collars.

Negative-beta securities may provide diversification when broader equity markets decline, while options-based strategies can be structured to manage exposure to market movements.

Evercore’s recommendations reflect its assessment of current market risks and potential investment positioning rather than a forecast that a correction will necessarily occur.

Technical Levels Could Influence Investment Positioning

Evercore also identified technical reference points that could prompt changes to its recommended equity exposure.

The strategists suggested that investors could increase long positions and remove hedges if the Nasdaq-100 tested its 200-day moving average, described in the source report as being around 674.

They identified a corresponding level of 725 for the S&P 500.

The reported figures appear inconsistent with the headline levels of the two indices and may refer to a different technical measure. The original information does not provide sufficient detail to resolve that discrepancy.

The strategists nevertheless presented these levels as potential conditions for adjusting market positioning.

S&P 500 Year-End Target Remains at 7,750

Evercore maintained its S&P 500 target of 7,750 for the end of 2026 despite the recent decline in technology shares.

The firm’s analysis distinguishes between short-term price volatility and developments that could indicate a more sustained deterioration in market conditions.

Its framework places particular emphasis on credit market spreads, corporate earnings revisions and Treasury yields as measures of financial pressure.

The report also highlights the importance of debt financing as technology companies expand their AI infrastructure investment programmes.

For now, Evercore’s outlook remains conditional on whether the identified market indicators cross their specified thresholds and whether broader economic conditions continue to support corporate earnings.

What prompted J.P. Morgan’s review of CoreWeave’s financing?

J.P. Morgan examined global banks’ exposure to CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) following a decline in the AI cloud infrastructure provider’s shares and bonds.

The market movements occurred amid growing scrutiny of the borrowing required to finance the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

CoreWeave has accumulated approximately $50 billion in debt while developing computing capacity for major technology customers.

Last week, the yield on its bonds due in 2031 approached 16%, while the cost of credit default protection rose to around 1,000 basis points.

The developments prompted questions about whether financial pressure at AI infrastructure companies could create risks for the banks providing their funding.

How much exposure do major banks have to CoreWeave?

According to J.P. Morgan, large US investment banks and Japan’s MUFG could each have between $1 billion and $3 billion in exposure to CoreWeave.

Most other European and Asian institutions are estimated to have exposures below $500 million.

The figures are based on simplified assumptions because banks do not provide comprehensive disclosures about their lending and investment exposure to the AI infrastructure sector.

J.P. Morgan therefore cautioned that the estimates should not be treated as precise measures of individual banks’ positions.

What protects banks involved in CoreWeave’s financing?

J.P. Morgan identified the structure of CoreWeave’s borrowing arrangements as an important factor in assessing lenders’ risks.

Much of the financing consists of delayed draw term loans, under which committed funds are released in stages as projects achieve agreed milestones.

These arrangements are largely managed through special-purpose vehicles and are supported by security arrangements linked to the financed assets.

CoreWeave has approximately $24 billion in committed delayed draw term loans, including $15 billion already drawn and $9 billion not yet utilised.

J.P. Morgan analysts led by Kian Abouhossein said the banks’ exposures were well managed and secured.

The brokerage’s assessment suggests that the structure of the financing may limit direct lender risks, although it does not remove the possibility of losses.

Why does CoreWeave still face financing challenges?

CoreWeave’s business requires substantial spending on data centres and computing equipment before the full revenue associated with customer contracts is received.

The company has secured agreements worth tens of billions of dollars with major technology businesses, but its infrastructure expansion continues to require external capital.

J.P. Morgan identified the timing difference between upfront investment and future customer payments as a central financial risk.

The brokerage expects CoreWeave’s free cash flow to remain negative until 2030.

This forecast indicates that the company may continue to require financing to support its capital expenditure and operating requirements.

What is J.P. Morgan’s outlook for CoreWeave shares?

J.P. Morgan maintains an overweight rating on CoreWeave, with a price target of $125 for the end of 2027.

The brokerage’s assessment of the banking sector focuses on the direct credit exposure of lenders rather than solely on movements in CoreWeave’s share price or bond yields.

Although the company’s debt securities have experienced significant selling pressure, J.P. Morgan estimates that most global banks have relatively limited exposure.

The analysis also highlights the uncertainty surrounding broader AI infrastructure financing, particularly because banks provide limited disclosure about their involvement in the sector.

For lenders, the principal considerations remain the security supporting individual loans, the progress of financed projects and the ability of borrowers to generate sufficient cash flow over time.

What is JPMorgan’s assessment of a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger?

JPMorgan believes regulatory approval in China represents the most substantial obstacle to a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), despite the need for Tesla shareholder support.

Analyst Rajat Gupta outlined the risks in a Wednesday research note following Elon Musk’s disclosure that special committees at both companies had begun formally examining a possible combination.

The bank considers a merger strategically feasible but believes Tesla’s significant Chinese operations could complicate regulatory approval because of SpaceX’s relationships with the US defence sector.

No binding merger agreement has been announced.

What transaction terms is JPMorgan considering?

JPMorgan’s preliminary analysis assumes a premium of approximately 30% to 35% to Tesla’s market capitalisation.

The bank believes such a premium could support a merger-of-equals structure while allowing Musk to retain voting control exceeding 50% in the combined business.

Musk increased his voting stake in Tesla to approximately 20% in June 2026 after exercising his 2018 compensation award.

Gupta interpreted the increase as potentially relevant to a future shareholder vote.

SpaceX’s valuation of approximately $2 trillion, around 10% above its initial public offering valuation, could also provide shares for an equity-financed transaction.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth separately raised his SpaceX price target to $500, more than doubling his previous estimate.

Why does JPMorgan see a strategic rationale for combining the companies?

Tesla and SpaceX already have commercial and technological relationships that JPMorgan believes could support a combined corporate structure.

The bank identified shared engineering resources, artificial intelligence infrastructure and the Terafab chip facility in Texas among the factors supporting a potential transaction.

SpaceX has purchased Tesla Megapack batteries and Cybertrucks, while Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which has since become part of SpaceX.

“The strategic logic for a combination remains coherent,” Gupta wrote, referring to the businesses’ existing connections and Musk’s leadership.

The analysis suggests that a merger could consolidate several related technology activities, although no financial synergies have been formally disclosed.

Why could Chinese regulators oppose the transaction?

Tesla generates approximately one-fifth of its revenue in China, which also accounts for a larger proportion of the company’s operating earnings and free cash flow.

Its Shanghai manufacturing operations are an important part of the business.

Although JPMorgan attributes only about 10% of its approximately $1.7 trillion sum-of-the-parts valuation to China, the bank considers those operations significant from a regulatory perspective.

The potential merger would also involve SpaceX, a company with extensive US defence-related contracts.

Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications business, has not been authorised to operate in China.

Gupta believes these factors could make Chinese approval more difficult than obtaining support from Tesla shareholders.

Could Tesla separate its Chinese business to facilitate a merger?

JPMorgan outlined a potential ownership structure intended to address the Chinese regulatory challenge.

Under the proposal, Tesla’s Chinese operations could be placed under the majority control of a consortium based in China.

The consortium could hold more than 50% of the local entity, while Tesla would continue receiving payments through licensing agreements.

Those arrangements could cover Tesla’s brand, separated Full Self-Driving technology and possible future commercial agreements involving Optimus.

JPMorgan compared the proposal with the ownership and control arrangements associated with TikTok in the United States, but in reverse.

“We believe one such avenue would be to ring-fence TSLA’s China business or transfer control,” Gupta wrote.

The arrangement remains hypothetical, and there is no indication that Chinese regulators or the companies have agreed to it.

What remains unresolved before a merger could proceed?

A potential transaction would require agreement on valuation, ownership and voting arrangements, together with the relevant shareholder and regulatory approvals.

JPMorgan also considers Musk’s broader interest in consolidating artificial intelligence-related businesses a factor supporting the merger rationale.

The bank described the longer-term objective as bringing the AI ecosystem under a single corporate structure.

However, its analysis identifies Chinese regulatory approval as the central unresolved issue, particularly given Tesla’s manufacturing presence in Shanghai and SpaceX’s US defence relationships.

The special committees at Tesla and SpaceX are examining a possible combination, but no definitive merger terms or timetable have been announced.

As artificial intelligence drives demand for computing power, MAX Power Mining Corp. is exploring how naturally occurring hydrogen could help address one of the technology industry’s biggest infrastructure challenges: access to reliable, scalable energy.

Artificial intelligence is transforming industries, from financial services and healthcare to manufacturing and defence. Yet behind the rapid development of increasingly sophisticated AI models lies a fundamental requirement: electricity.

The expansion of AI is driving investment in data centres, high-performance computing and the infrastructure needed to support them. These facilities require substantial amounts of power and cooling, creating new challenges for energy providers, technology companies and governments seeking to build the next generation of digital infrastructure.

For MAX Power Mining Corp. (CSE:MAXX) (USOTC:MAXXF) (FSE:89N) this changing landscape presents an opportunity to explore a different approach to powering the AI economy: natural hydrogen.

The energy challenge behind artificial intelligence

The AI revolution is increasingly becoming an infrastructure story. While advances in processors, software and AI models attract considerable attention, the availability of dependable electricity is emerging as a critical factor in determining where computing facilities can be developed and how quickly they can expand.

Traditional data centre projects face challenges associated with grid capacity, transmission infrastructure, energy costs and cooling requirements. As demand for computing power increases, alternative energy solutions that can potentially be developed closer to the point of consumption are attracting growing interest.

Natural hydrogen, also known as geological hydrogen, occurs naturally beneath the Earth’s surface. Unlike hydrogen produced through industrial processes, it may be extracted directly from underground accumulations, subject to the geology, recoverability and commercial viability of individual deposits.

If commercially viable resources can be developed, natural hydrogen could offer a new source of energy for industries seeking reliable power with potentially lower production costs and emissions than some conventional alternatives.

This is the opportunity MAX Power is investigating through its natural hydrogen exploration programme in Saskatchewan, Canada, particularly along the 475-km Genesis Trend where interest in AI data center development has exploded. Bell Canada recently announced a major planned expansion to its previously announced data centre project, scaling it up to 1.2 gigawatts (GW) from 300 MW. At an estimated C$50 billion, this would be the largest private development in provincial history. The government has also mandated that companies in the AI data centre development game must also now source their own power – they can’t tap into the existing provincial (crown-owned) grid. This scenario clearly plays into the hands of MAX Power if it can prove up significant natural hydrogen resources.

From underground discovery to AI infrastructure

MAX Power’s strategy centres on the Lawson natural hydrogen discovery, located within the company’s extensive Genesis Trend exploration corridor in Saskatchewan.

In January 2026, the company announced Canada’s first confirmed subsurface natural hydrogen system at Lawson. Initial results included hydrogen readings of up to 286,000 parts per million, while samples analysed by three independent laboratories recorded hydrogen concentrations of between 16.80% and 19.07%.

These results established an important technical starting point for the company and were followed soon after by a 3D seismic survey that outlined the 28 sq. km “Lawson Complex”, favourable for natural hydrogen deposits. However, demonstrating the scale of a potentially significant geological system is only one part of the process. Further work is required to establish recoverable volumes, sustained flow rates and whether production can be achieved commercially, and that process is underway now. 

A soon-to-start completions program and continued exploratory drilling will further ramp up activity on the ground before the end of October. Five wells have been drilled to date, with Lawson 2, Lawson 3 and Lawson 4 each delivering increasingly encouraging results. A Lawson 5 update is expected soon. 

The significance for AI infrastructure lies in what successful commercial development could eventually make possible: a potential source of locally generated energy that could be evaluated for use in power-intensive applications.

The company is therefore exploring a proposition that extends beyond conventional resource development, connecting subsurface energy exploration with the growing requirements of the digital economy.

A strategic collaboration focused on AI data centres

In June 2026, MAX Power announced a memorandum of understanding with TerraVolt Energy, EcoTech Building Solutions and Carbon Neutral Growth Fund to evaluate an integrated natural hydrogen-powered energy and AI infrastructure model.

The proposed approach brings together several interconnected elements: potential natural hydrogen production, modular power-generation systems, sustainable building infrastructure and the possible use of associated brine water in cooling and water-management applications.

The objective is to investigate whether future computing facilities could be developed closer to energy production, potentially reducing dependence on constrained electricity grids while addressing the substantial cooling requirements of AI hardware.

Under the collaboration, the parties are evaluating modular infrastructure concepts for AI data centres and high-performance computing environments, alongside hydrogen handling, storage, power conversion and closed-loop water-management systems.

This is an important distinction. MAX Power is not simply exploring a resource that could eventually be sold into an energy market; it is also investigating potential applications for that resource within an emerging infrastructure sector.

The memorandum of understanding establishes a framework for evaluation rather than a completed commercial deployment. Turning the concept into an operating business would require successful resource validation, engineering studies, regulatory approvals, financing and definitive commercial agreements.

Nevertheless, the collaboration provides a tangible example of how MAX Power is seeking to connect its geological exploration activities with potential end-user demand.

Saskatchewan offers a potential strategic advantage

Geography could also play an important role in the company’s longer-term ambitions.

MAX Power’s Genesis Trend extends for approximately 475 kilometres, and the company reports holding permits covering around 2.5 million acres across its Saskatchewan natural hydrogen portfolio.

The region’s industrial infrastructure and developing interest in AI computing provide a relevant setting in which to investigate potential links between energy resources and digital infrastructure.

The company has highlighted AI infrastructure development activity around the Regina–Moose Jaw industrial corridor, reinforcing the strategic rationale for assessing whether locally sourced energy could support future computing facilities.

If the natural hydrogen resource proves commercially recoverable, proximity to industrial demand could become an important consideration in evaluating potential development models.

The broader proposition is that energy production and computing infrastructure might be planned together, rather than treating electricity supply as an external requirement to be addressed after a data centre site has been selected.

For MAX Power, establishing whether that proposition is technically and economically achievable will be central to its commercial evaluation programme.

Building a commercial pathway

The company’s progress also reflects a wider effort to move natural hydrogen from an emerging exploration concept towards practical commercial applications.

MAX Power completed a $25 million strategic private placement at C$2.00 with mining financier Eric Sprott in May 2026, increasing his ownership position to 19%. This was followed by another $10 million from Sprott at $2.50 in August 2026. With that latest private placement, in addition to a recent exercise of warrants, he has pushed his ownership position in the company to just above 24%. Sprott’s investment provides continued support for MAX Power’s ongoing technical and commercial evaluation activities.

In October 2026, MAX Power appointed Rob Norris as CEO to lead its commercialisation push, with former CEO Ran Narayanasamy moving into the newly created role of Managing Director, Innovation and International Strategy. Tom Kishchuk has also been appointed Chief Technology Officer, and he’ll be focusing significant attention on the company’s AI-assisted MAXX LEMI platform (Large Earth Model Integration) that NYSE-listed Kyndryl is currently reviewing for its near-term commercialization potential. MAXX LEMI is a targeting model for natural hydrogen deposits, based on a mix of proprietary data and extensive provincial sets of geological, geochemical and geophysical legacy data.

These developments come as the company prepares to intensify work at Lawson in a major step toward understanding whether the discovery can support sustained production.

For investors following the natural hydrogen sector, the next milestones are likely to be increasingly focused on evidence of deliverability, resource scale, production economics and credible routes to market.

The AI infrastructure opportunity adds another dimension to that assessment. A commercially viable resource with a clear potential application could offer a different development pathway from exploration projects that depend solely on selling an unprocessed commodity into an established market.

However, the potential value of the AI strategy will ultimately depend on the underlying resource delivering the required performance and on the company establishing commercially viable arrangements with infrastructure partners and customers.

Connecting the AI boom with a new energy opportunity

The growth of artificial intelligence is creating opportunities well beyond the companies developing models and manufacturing advanced chips. Energy generation, cooling technology, grid infrastructure and alternative power sources are becoming increasingly important components of the AI ecosystem.

MAX Power is positioning itself within this broader opportunity by exploring whether natural hydrogen can be developed into a practical energy source for power-intensive industries, including AI and high-performance computing.

Its Lawson discovery provides a technical foundation for that ambition, while its collaboration with TerraVolt Energy and other partners outlines a potential route towards integrated energy and computing infrastructure.

The immediate priority remains proving the resource’s commercial potential. Successful testing, demonstrated production capability and progress towards definitive commercial agreements will be critical in determining how far the opportunity can advance.

If those milestones are achieved, MAX Power could be positioned at the intersection of two emerging themes: natural hydrogen as a potential new primary energy source and AI as a powerful driver of future electricity demand.

For a company seeking to commercialise an emerging energy source, that intersection provides a compelling strategic direction to investigate as the global AI infrastructure build-out continues.