Global demand for oil and gas could continue to rise until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, signaling a major shift from its previous outlook that envisioned a rapid transition toward cleaner energy sources. The agency now believes the world is unlikely to meet its long-term climate goals under current policies.
The IEA — often viewed as the energy policy adviser to developed economies — has faced growing political pressure over the years. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. pushed the agency to emphasize fossil fuel security and expansion, urging American producers to increase output. Conversely, during the Joe Biden administration, the IEA forecasted that “global oil demand would peak this decade” and warned that “no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target.”
Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized those projections, calling them “nonsensical.” The IEA, which receives funding from its member countries — with the U.S. as the largest contributor — plays a central role in shaping global energy policy through its research and data.
Existing Policies Drive Long-Term Growth Outlook
In its World Energy Outlook 2025 released Wednesday, the IEA said that under its “current policies scenario,” global oil demand is projected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, roughly 13% higher than 2024 levels. The agency also expects total energy demand to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, representing a 15% rise from today’s consumption.
The “current policies” scenario focuses solely on existing regulations and excludes aspirational climate targets. The IEA had previously stopped using this model in 2019, opting instead for projections aligned with a clean energy transition and net-zero commitments. However, this year’s report abandoned the “pledges scenario,” citing insufficient data from countries on new climate goals for 2031–2035.
In the stated policies scenario, which includes announced but not fully implemented measures, the IEA estimates that oil demand will peak around 2030 before stabilizing. The agency stressed that its scenarios are not forecasts but rather frameworks for exploring “a range of possible outcomes under different assumptions.”
LNG Expansion Accelerates Amid Surging Energy Needs
The IEA report highlighted a sharp increase in final investment decisions for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 2025. Roughly 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export capacity is expected to begin operations by 2030, marking a 50% rise in available supply.
Under the current policies scenario, global LNG demand could climb from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and reach 1,020 bcm by 2050, driven by growing electricity needs — particularly from data centers and AI technologies.
The report also noted that global investment in data centers could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent annually on oil supply, underscoring the tech sector’s rising energy appetite.
Climate Goals at Risk as Global Temperatures Surge
The IEA included a “net zero” pathway showing how emissions could theoretically fall to net zero by 2050, but warned that this remains increasingly unlikely without large-scale carbon capture and removal technologies.
Over 190 nations committed during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to limit global temperature increases to no more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels. However, the IEA report indicates that in all scenarios, the world exceeds 1.5°C of warming, with temperatures only declining under the net zero model if carbon removal technologies are successfully deployed.
The findings suggest that despite political pledges and renewable energy progress, fossil fuels will remain a dominant force in the global energy mix for decades — posing a major challenge to achieving international climate ambitions.
